On June 14, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) released comprehensive stats on how manufacturing in Nigeria has fared: pre-and immediate post-COVID 19 pandemic. But two newspapers, The Nation and Vanguard, gave the released numbers contrasting stamps.
The Nation based its interpretation on immediate post-COVID-19 development and chalked up great progress in the manufacturing sector, away from the usual doom-and-gloom from that front. ”Total investment in the Nigerian manufacturing sector reached N217.22 billion in 2021,” The Nation story opened, “up from N118.52 billion in 2020.”
By the second half of 2021, investment in manufacturing had risen from N73.18 billion, from N56.44 billion recorded in the second half of 2020, thus accounting for a gain of N16.74 billion or a percentage growth of 29.7 %. That steady growth — indeed, thunderous in some parts of the sector — gave a happy tale of a possible post-COVID-19 manufacturing rebound.
But Vanguard, in its own interpretation, stuck with doom-and-gloom; because its own comparison was between 2020 (when COVID-19 bit hard) and 2019 (when COVID-19 was still some possible future plague).
“The total manufacturing investment in Nigeria dropped by 76.11% in 2020 to N118.52 billion from N496.11 billion achieved in 2019,” went the Vanguard story’s intro, “even as unsold inventory increased by 43.5% within the period. The unsold inventory represents total goods manufactured but were not sold.”
The Vanguard interpretation was brutal numbers on the havoc of COVID-19 on manufacturing and other sectors of the economy. Yet, by telling the obvious with grim stats, it was rather misleading, for it blocked out immediate post-COVID-19 gains, which The Nation analysis faithfully captured.
On the balance of scale, Nigerian manufacturing has not risen to its pre-COVID-19 level, which was in no way stellar. Still, there are basis, with 2021 investments, to hope that, other things being equal, the future looks bright, with the MAN figures.
For instance, despite the ever-plaguing power debacle, some of the stats on the manufacturing front were simply exciting. It spoke of “significant investment” (The Nation’s report exact phrasing) in the pulp, paper, printing and publishing sub-sector (6Ps), which has birthed five new paper mills that recycle waste papers to produce cartons.
Aside, the MAN report also spoke of a new BUA Cement Factory in Sokoto; and a new African Glass Limited factory that produces glass products. In second half 2021, investment in 6Ps jumped from N1.23 billion in the second half of 2020 to N4.15 billion, thus showing a steady post-COVID-19 growth on that front.
The numbers are even more exciting in non-metallic products, basic metal, iron and steel, and motor vehicle and miscellaneous assembly sectors. In non-metallic products, investments grew from N0.86 billion in the second half of 2020, to N12.04 billion, in the second half of 2021, signifying a quantum leap.
In basic metal, iron and steel, it leapt from N1.91 billion in second half 2020 to N19.55 billion in second half 2021, chalking a N17.64 billon increase. Motor vehicle and miscellaneous assembly also increased from N0.64 billion (in the second half of 2020) to N21.36 billion (in the second half of 2021), triggering a hefty N20.72 billion increase.
By all accounts, these are impressive figures. If appropriate returns follow these new breaths of investments, it would be safe to say Nigerian manufacturing, the spine of the Nigerian real sector, may be on the rebound.
If that is sustained, then maybe the omens are pointing to a possible post-SAP re-industrialisation; and a true re-discovery of a Nigerian economy anchored on mass local production, away from the SAP years from 1986, of wayward imports and local economic collapse. If that happens, maybe, then maybe, the morbid fixation with Naira parity to foreign currencies would cease; for a heavy local industrial base would push out jumbo jobs, and deliver the Naira its fair exchange value.
Still, all of these would not happen without adequate electricity. So, while both the Vanguard analysis demonstrated the economic plague that was COVID-19, The Nation interpretation shows the promise of a post-COVID-19 economic burst.
But even that could be a dead dream without adequate and routine electricity supply to industries. That is the prime challenge for post-COVID-19 economic Nigeria.