To the credit of All Progressives Congress (APC) governors from the North, the zoning quagmire in the ruling party was somehow resolved ahead of its primary in Abuja in June. Governors Bello Matawalle (Zamfara), Atiku Bagudu (Kebbi), Abubakar Badaru (Jigawa), Nasir El-Rufai (Kaduna), Aminu Bello Masari (Katsina), Abdullahi Umar Ganduje (Kano), Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya (Gombe), Mai Mala Buni (Yobe), Simon Bako Lalong (Plateau), Babagana Umara Zulum (Borno), Abdullahi Sule (Nasarawa), and Abubakar Sani Bello (Niger) reasoned that if a particular region continued to dominate the Presidency, there would be ill feelings among the others.
They, therefore, took a patriotic stand on how to unite a diverse country thirsty for equity, after a deep reflection on national history.
Hitherto, the polity had been enveloped in anxiety, following the resolution of the Southern Governors’ Forum during their meetings in Lagos and Asaba (Delta State) that power should shift from North to South. The resolution was not a threat. The argument canvassed by the Southern governors, observers noted, was logical. Sensing that over-monopolisation of power could heighten rivalry and animosity between the North and South, they appealed to the conscience of their northern counterparts to strike a critical balance between the interests of both regions.
Some questions were raised, and answers to them spurred the governors from both regions to embrace reality.
Why should the Presidency remain in a region for 16 years, or why should another northerner succeed President Muhammadu Buhari, who will bow out in 2023 after two terms of eight tears? Why should anti-zoning curators, who have embraced the principles of federal character, quota system and catchment area, be unwilling to embrace the conventional reality of presidential zoning or power rotation?
The endorsement of zoning by APC governors in the North was strategic. The move may have restored confidence between the North and the South. It also has the potential of reducing mutual suspicion while ensuring national unity and guaranteeing political stability.
The pro-zoning stance has sounded the death knell of the “Born to Rule” shibboleth, the age-long slogan of entitlement and bombastic disposition premised on the supposed numerical strength the North has consistently used to its advantage and against other sections of the country.
Drama unfolded on the eve of the primary at the Eagle Square in Abuja. There was tension as information filtered in about the strange endorsement of Senate President Ahmad Lawan, an aspirant from the North, by President Muhammadu Buhari. The Northern APC governors moved swiftly to Aso Villa, where the President told them that it was fake news. The coast thus became clear for them to vigorously pursue the power shift agenda in the party.
To analysts, the bold move halted the feeling of alienation by the South. It has expanded the horizon of inclusive politics and participation, and rekindled a sense of belonging among all the geo-political entities.
Under the Nigerian brand of presidential system, governors, like the President, are powerful. Whenever they come together to pursue a course of action in their respective political parties, they are almost unstoppable. It is now evident that governors can as well use their vantage positions to correct certain awful conditions and steer the country from the brink.
At the state level, observers have described them as lords of the manor with the power of possessing the yam and the knife. They can use their powers to influence issues and go scot free because of their combined powers of incumbency and immunity, the gargantuan party structure they lean upon, and the huge resources at their disposal.
Also, at the zonal level, a governors’ forum is an influential bloc meant for the promotion of personal, group and regional interests. Sometimes, in pursuit of their own agenda, they may become blind to other realities.
The governors’ forum is a close-knit body. However, in this electioneering, the northern APC governors could be described as a club dedicated to the promotion of national understanding and cohesion, as underscored by their position on the zoning of the presidential ticket.
Without a dissenting voice beyond Kogi State Governor Yahaya Bello’s initial euphoria and Lawan’s feeble attempt, northern APC governors unanimously took a progressive stand, strengthened the bond of unity in the ruling party and erased the fear of exclusion, domination and marginalisation among the nation’s diverse ethnic groups constituting the fragile federation.
The rare display of courage, patriotism and sacrifice was critical to the repositioning of the polity during those critical moments. Indeed, a precedent was set on how best to scale the zoning hurdle at a difficult time. Ultimately, the governors became the heroes of inclusive politics, democratic consolidation, national unity, fairness, and justice.
Unlike their Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) counterparts, APC governors were sensitive to the mortal dangers and obstacles to peaceful co-existence that zoning the presidency to the North could cause.
Zoning is among the essential factors that have continued to shape the outcome of periodic presidential elections. Those who discredited the conventional arrangement only tried to heat up the polity. The consequence was indignation.
The antagonists of zoning believe that merit, rather than rotation, should be the critical factor. But the belief is that zoning or power rotation also takes cognisance of merit as a significant factor by throwing up “presidential assets” from a particular region at a given time.
Indisputably, all the regions are endowed. There is no lopsided distribution of talents across the geo-political zones. Competent Nigerians who can serve as president abound across the six regions. The fear is that if regional numerical strength is perpetually deployed in a multi-ethnic polity during shadow polls and general elections, equity may be destroyed and smaller regions would remain marginalised.
The result is the dictatorship of numbers, disillusionment by the minority and loss of a sense of attachment.
Besides, zoning is, fundamentally, a party matter. Some observers have submitted that the 1999 Constitution upholds the right of every Nigerian to aspire to any elective position in the country. This cannot be faulted. But there is also an emphasis on equity, fairness and justice in the Constitution, being the ground norm and regulator of political relationships.
However, the constitutions of APC and PDP also tend to support the push for zoning. The APC constitution states that “without prejudice to Article 20 (2)(iii) of this constitution, the National Working Committee (NWC) shall, subject to approval of the National Working Committee, make rules and regulations for the nomination of candidates through primary elections”.
It adds: “All such rules, regulations and guidelines shall take into consideration and uphold the principle of federal character, gender balance, geo-political spread and rotation of offices, to as much as possible, ensure balance within the constituency covered.”
For the presidential poll, Nigeria is the constituency. If states, senatorial districts, federal constituencies and local governments can adopt zoning, why should the country shy away from rotating the number one office in the land from region to region?
The zoning controversy underscores a serious problem. The background to the struggle for power is that the Presidency has not become a unifying factor. It is lamentable that Nigerians harbour the peculiar feeling that only a few among past leaders had exhibited the required national outlook and their successors will always mirror their style.
Nigeria is a marriage of incompatible social formations lumped together by British interlopers. Its federalism is premised on unitarism. The distribution of power and resources is skewed. The tribes are many, always at each other’s throats. Their differences are pronounced. The races do not subscribe to the same religion, values and expectations. There is fear of domination and marginalisation. There is permanent suspicion among them.
To mitigate the conflict, the idea of treading the “turn by turn” path is logical, essential, persuasive and convincing. It seems to make zoning or power rotation between the North and the South a plausible strategy to reassure the regional units that they are not excluded.
The northern APC governors have plausible reasons for queuing behind the party’s presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Although the APC candidate is a Southerner, the governors believe that he is a bridge builder who they have seen in action. They believe in his capacity to be fair to all, having presided over a government of inclusion as governor of Lagos State. They recall that he was a partner in their quest for power shift to the North in 2015 and 2019.
Thus, their support for zoning, with the goal of electing Tinubu in next year’s poll, is in remembrance of the 2015/2019 synergy between the North and South that produced Buhari as President. Tinubu played a pivotal role as the party’s respected National Leader. His intellect, experience, exposure, structure, mobilisation prowess, organisational ability and achievements as governor were an added advantage.