The Russian President Vladimir Putin is a bully, and as Chinua Achebe said, a bully gets excited each time he sees someone he can throw in a fight. Putin sees the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenksy, as a person he can beat in a fight. He says President Zelenksy is stubborn, because he is unamenable to his fancies as a modern day czar. As such he wants to dethrone Zelensky by all means, including inviting the Ukranian military to overthrow their president.
But Putin is not only a bully; he is also a dumb fellow, to the extent that he played into the hands of the USA and her western allies by being an aggressor against a peaceful Ukraine in the eyes of the world. Some have argued that he attacked to stop Ukraine from joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), but this columnist thinks he could have achieved the same objective without engaging in an unwinnable war. With the attack, the dominant world media is effectively ringing the world against Russia.
As the Igbo adage would say, when a man cooks for the community, they will eat the meal, but when the community cooks for one person, the person will not be able to consume the feast. The real enemies of Russia, the USA and her western European allies would be excited that Russia has foolishly entered into a trap. They will go ahead to portray Russia as a bandit nation, and help her deplete the resources its resurgent economy has amassed in recent decades.
The USA and Britain which may have been apprehensive of the increasing economic interdependence between Russia, Germany, France and other mainland European countries, because of their increasing dependence on the enormous gas resources of Russia, would be happy in their closet that Russia has ended it with Putin’s misjudgment. So while Russia can defeat Ukraine in the battle, it would likely lose the emerging economic interdependence with her neighbours.
Of course, unless Russia attacks a NATO country, thereby triggering NATO to defend her member, only Ukraine would be sacrificed to turn Russia into a rogue nation with all its consequences. Unless Putin immediately pulls the break, the huge resources he has amassed for his country, would be expended fighting off the economic strangulation that is coming, while the continuation of war will further extend the life span of the international economic imbalance created after the Second World War.
A long occupation of Ukraine by Russia would cost an isolated Russia dearly such that by the time a full détente is reached, Russia would be as economically dissipated as the USA, which until recently saw itself as the policeman of the world. Perhaps, Russia, under the firm grip of a bullish Putin, did not learn from the misadventures of the USA as international policeman, most recently in Afghanistan. With the USA’s economy running on huge deficits over decades, her political leaders have learnt the limits of roguish benevolence.
Of course, with the economic resurgence of Asian tigers, and a few other former third world economies, the exploitation of other nations to remain at the top of world economic ladder is becoming increasingly difficult for the West. Amongst the new prosperous nations are Russia, Brazil, India and China, and they are increasingly seeking a reordering of the existing world economic order. But with the foolish attack on Ukraine, the USA and her European allies will try to isolate Russia and finish her off, while continuing to contain the rest.
With Russia considered a rogue nation, many countries will join the USA and her European allies in that venture. Again, the nations whose citizens have been badly affected by the folly of President Putin, as their nationals are stranded at the boarders of Ukraine with her neighbours, will hold it against Russia. Tragically for some countries like Nigeria, there is the lack of capacity to ensure the safe passage and repatriation of their nationals. Should harm befall the citizens of those countries held at the Ukraine borders, Russia bears blame.
Putin did not also factor resistance from the Ukrainians, which may prolong the war. Unlike when Adolf Hitler tried to forcefully redraw the world map in favour of Germany, the world has significantly changed. The social media for one has made it possible for Ukrainians to collaborate in their defence strategies, and that has buoyed up the determination amongst ordinary citizens to confront the enemy. With many citizens learning how to make bombs, Russian soldiers may find it difficult when they get their boots on ground.
Another fallout of the foolishness of Putin is that a pacifist Germany has decided to re-join the arms race, and the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, has committed to spend over $100 billion to increase German’s defence capabilities, and such huge spending will become an annual ritual. Of course, with Russia losing over a million citizens to defend Stalingrad from the Nazi Germany during the Second World War, a militarily resurgent Germany is a greater threat to Russia than Ukraine.
Save for Russia’s nuclear armament, which Putin has boasted is now on high alert, but he dare not use them, NATO would have used her superior military powers to deal with Russia once and for all. Since the huge armament amassed by NATO over the decades cannot be deployed to turn Russia’s cities to rubbles, for her to start all over again, the only way to deal with Russia is to turn her currency the Ruble to rubbles. So, the USA and her allies are using international trading instruments to tighten the grip on the Russian economy.
If Russia is completely isolated economically, her citizens would turn the pressure on President Putin. The Russian oligarchs, including Roman Abramovich, the owner of Chelsea football club, is the best known example of the economic folly of Putin. Sensing danger from the United Kingdom’s parliament, Abramovich quickly transferred control of Chelsea to a Trustee, before the parliamentarians force their Prime Minister to nationalise the ownership of the club. The USA is also contemplating cutting Russia of the international banking swift, and that will effectively kill Russia’s international trade.
The odds are against Russia, and so while Putin can win the battle against Ukraine, he will neither be able to recreate the United Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR), nor redraw the world economic map, to truly turn his country into a world power. If the war prolongs and the West succeeds in ruining the Russian economy, Putin may be the one to be booted out of power, instead of the Ukrainian President Zelensky. For an economically castrated Russia may be as good as a Russia bombed back to Stone Age.