What is the future of oil?
What is the point of the current insurgency against the backdrop of the decline in the price of oil in the international market? The price of oil has continued to decline sharply and is widely believed that it will continue to drop for many years to come because of the following reasons.
First, there are now serious attempts to develop alternative sources of energy. Because of this, oil will no longer be a money spinning commodity soon. Moreover, cars, planes automobile will in due course be powered by other energies. The developed high income countries are rapidly reducing the dependence of their economies on oil due to environmental concerns and oil will probably not be worth as much by the year 2050.
Nigerians in general, and Niger Deltans in particular, who think that they can depend forever on one product for the survival of their economy had better think about the future of oil. Oil may not be worth much soon with the rapid development of alternative sources of energy.
The impact in the decline of the price of oil in the international market is already not only being felt in Nigeria but in all other major oil producing countries like Venezuela which has mis-used proceeds from its oil and is now in a miserable state (almost a failed state) as well as Saudi Arabia which is also experiencing severe economic recession for the first time in years.
The decline of oil as a major source of energy will continue at a faster rate and in no time, we will have oil trapped in our land which no one will be interested in buying. For example, coal was the main source of energy during the colonial and post-colonial times. Coal from Enugu which fetched lots of money for the defunct Eastern region during the First Republic is no longer in demand. And yet, our coal can still be mined in Enugu and along the Kogi basin today. But no one wants to buy coal anymore. Even Nigeria is not harvesting huge quantities of her coal to power electricity.
Taking a cue from the UK
Let the Niger Delta states, the Avengers and Nigerians in general learn from what happened in the United Kingdom (UK) years back. The UK which used to be dependent on coal is no longer doing so. The coal miners in the UK played the sort of role that the Niger Delta Avengers are now playing in Nigeria today, holding the country to ransom.
The miners used to make the UK ungovernable for years in collaboration with Labour Party through wildcat strikes until Margaret Thatcher (now late) was elected Prime Minister. The Iron Lady broke the backbone of the coal miners. Today, no one hears about coal and the miners in the UK. The power, which the miners wielded was destroyed and they are today in pitiable conditions.
I urge the readers of this piece to take a look at the late Thatcher’s autobiography titled: “Margaret Thatcher: The Path to Power”, on how she decimated the coal industry and the miners. Her action also kept Labour Party out of power for more than ten years.
Niger Deltans and the Avengers should learn from this story of coal in the UK. Oil is passing away and it is in their own interest to take advantage of its current price by ensuring peace so that as much as possible can be mined and sold for hard currency for the development of their sub-region and Nigeria before it is not worth as much anymore.
A call for re-think
Many states in the country with the exception of Lagos are totally dependent on the Federation Account where the resources from oil proceeds in US dollars are kept. The injury the drop in the sale of oil will have on everyone/state including Niger Delta states will be significant.
Niger Delta states like every state in the federation that is totally dependent on the central government (with the exception of Lagos State) will now receive lesser amounts of money from the Federal Government purse. This is the implication of the destruction of pipelines by the Avengers. So, Niger Delta states will remain as impoverished as ever as a long as the Federal Government is unable to disburse more funds to them.
Ill-timed, miscalculated agitation
It seems that the Niger Delta Avengers and their sponsors who approved insurgency did not also take the character of present President into consideration when the decision was reached to launch the current insurgency.
President Muhammadu Buhari is a battle-tested general who played an active role in the 1967-1970 civil war. He later garnered experience as a military governor of a state; Head of federal parastatal and agencies; and military Head of State. The launching of the insurgency against such a leader who is also known to be tough and resolute by nature may well have turn out to be untimely and a miscalculation.
This is a Head of State who is ruthlessly dealing with the Boko Haram insurgents since his assumption of office as President. Compare Buhari’s person and the response of Jonathan whose experience in statecraft is grossly limited.
Jonathan was catapulted from the posts of deputy/state governor where he barely gained any experience due to his short tenure in those positions to the office of Vice-President and President to manage the affairs of a complex, multi-ethnic and multi-religious country like Nigeria. Jonathan at the same time comes across with a weak and ineffectual mien. No wonder he was completely overwhelmed by the Boko Haram insurgency. He sat in the Office of the President wringing his hands while Rome was burning to use the widely known adage.
The point being made here is that the Niger Delta Avengers and their sponsors failed to take these facts about Muhammadu Buhari into consideration. Yet, these facts are likely to be critical determinants of their expectation which is to garner more resources from the federation account for Niger Delta states. From the look of things, the present leadership is likely to opt for the carrot and stick approach – rooting out the insurgents who are described by him as criminals with military force before possibly making some concessions.