A credible path to the realisation of Nigeria’s aspiration to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030 must prioritise an industrial-led development model, the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has said.
This, according to MAN, requires a deliberate and strategic revival of industrial output, with a particular focus on high-value-added and exportable manufactured goods, supported by unmitigated government patronage.
MAN Director General Segun Ajayi-Kadir said central to this effort must be reliable and affordable energy supply, noting that without stable and cost-effective electricity, the manufacturing sector cannot thrive and contribute meaningfully to the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Ajayi-Kadir, while responding to the latest rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), described Nigeria’s aspiration to become a $1 trillion economy by 2030 as “an ambitious but technically attainable goal over the medium to long term.”
He, however, said achieving this target is not a stroll in the park or matter of arithmetic growth. “It demands a strategic transformation of the economy’s foundational structure, particularly the industrial sector,” he said.
Justifying his position, Ajayi-Kadir said with the newly rebased nominal GDP at $243 billion, reaching the $1 trillion threshold by 2030 would require consistent nominal growth of 12–14 per cent annually.
He also said this is assuming currency stability, or real GDP growth of 6–7 per cent per annum, a figure that is nearly double the current real growth rate of 3.38 per cent recorded in 2024.
The MAN boss pointed out that Nigeria’s road to hitting the $1 trillion economy milestone by 2030 is fraught with structural bottlenecks that must be urgently addressed.
He argued, for instance, that “A growth path that merely expands the size of low-productivity sectors, such as informal trade and consumption-driven services, will only deepen inequality, reinforce economic vulnerability, and perpetuate jobless growth.”
Ajayi-Kadir’s words: “Achieving a $1 trillion economy is not simply about increasing output. It is about building an economy that works, that creates jobs, that competes, and that uplifts the majority.
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“Without a strong, modern, and competitive manufacturing base, the $1 trillion goal may be a struggle and measured only in numbers, not in national prosperity.”
The MAN DG, therefore, called on government to make industrial transformation the anchor of Nigeria’s economic strategy.
He said critical to that strategy is the upgrade of core infrastructure such as transport networks, logistics systems, and broadband connectivity to support efficient production and regional trade integration.
He added that a coherent, investor-friendly policy environment across fiscal, trade, and monetary domains is also essential to attract and retain long-term capital.
Above all, Ajayi-Kadir said Nigeria must boost productivity across strategic sub-sectors such as agro-processing, textiles, pharmaceuticals, and light engineering, where industrial linkages and employment potential are strongest.
He also said strengthening the naira, curtailing inflation and ensuring inclusive, sustained growth must be central to any credible path toward this milestone.
The MAN boss urged Nigerians and policymakers to avoid seeing the actualisation of the target in nominal terms that may be inflated by rising prices.
He emphasised that “Such growth without real sector expansion risks being purely cosmetic. Moreover, any substantial depreciation of the naira against the dollar would undermine progress, as the target is dollar-denominated.”
Ajayi-Kadir said this is why MAN consistently advocates for policies that drive real productivity, particularly through enhanced local manufacturing and high-valued export performance.
While noting that the GDP rebasing is welcome as a critical statistical upgrade that enhances the accuracy of national accounts and reflects structural changes in the economy, he however, said it reveals worrisomely that Nigeria is not industrialising yet, and that its economic expansion is not backed by productive transformation.
Ajayi-Kadir put it thus: “The revised nominal GDP estimate, showing an 18.3 per cent year-on-year increase, is a direct outcome of improved data capture, especially in agriculture, services, and informal sector activities.
“Notwithstanding, MAN strongly cautions against interpreting this nominal expansion as evidence of significant economic progress. This notwithstanding, and despite the upward revision, real GDP growth remains weak, averaging just 1.95 per cent between 2020 and 2024.
This sluggish real growth shows the underlying fragility of Nigeria’s productive base and the capacity of the economy to deliver sustainable and inclusive development.”
He said it was important for MAN to express its concern over the declining role of the industrial sector, a trend that the rebased figures made unmistakably clear.
“Industry’s share of GDP fell from 27.65 per cent in the 2010 base year to 21.08 per cent under the 2019 rebased structure, marking a structural shift away from production toward low-productivity service activities.
“While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of industry, particularly manufacturing, a sector which should be the backbone of Nigeria’s economic transformation,” Ajayi-Kadir said.
According to him, manufacturing is structurally weak, with sub-sectors that should be growth drivers performing below potential, as indicated in the report.
He said based on the figure released, the average annual growth rate of the manufacturing sector between 2019 and 2024 is negative (-0.76per cent), meaning that Nigeria’s manufacturing sector has been shrinking in real terms over the last five years.
“The rebasing confirms that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it is not more productive, nor more industrialised,” the MAN DG said.
