As the official flag-off of 2019 election campaigns draw closer, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, reports on the issues that will likely dominate the campaigns and possibly determine voters’ choices
AS the 2019 general elections draw closer, Nigerians and keen observers are eager to know the issues that will determine the campaigns and possibly influence voters’ choices. In 2015 general elections, the mantra that carried the day was the slogan of change. Experts said most electorates were easily swayed to cast their votes for change because the slogan, more than any other, captured the dream of the suffering Nigerian masses, who desperately wanted better days.
Three years after, there are divided opinions on what should attract Nigerian voters in the forthcoming 2019 general elections. Prof. Wole Soyinka set the ball rolling when he identified age as one of the factors that should guide youths while casting their votes. He gave the advice late last month in his convocation lecture at Elizade University, Ilaramokin, Ondo State, where he called on youths to vote out old politicians.
“All I can just tell you is this; don’t make the mistake of following those who failed you before; those who are pretending that they have nothing to do with the disaster that has overtaken Nigeria. They are very quick to smell failure, they are very quick to shout it; but they exculpate themselves, whereas they are the founding malfeasance of the Nigerian condition,” the Nobel Laureate warned.
Describing Nigerian old politicians as “monumental failures,” Soyinka said time has come for Nigerian youths to take up the challenge of leadership. He expressed hope that if youths show interest in leadership positions, they would serve the Nigerian people better. “Mobilise, get your representatives and stop bothering geriatrics like myself,” he said.
Following the advice, which can be described as ‘agenda setting for 2019,’ The Nation asked other stakeholders who said Soyinka’s call for youths to assume greater leadership roles in Nigeria, though propitious, would not be the only major issue that would dominate election campaigns this year.
Other issues identified by our respondents include restructuring, insecurity, ethnic sentiments, hunger, economy and credibility of individual candidates, amongst others.
In fact, before Soyinka’s public advice to youths on the importance of age, most elder statesmen and leaders, especially from the South, that have commented on the issue have identified restructuring as a key factor
Restructuring and power devolution
It would be recalled that at the 10th Abraham Adesanya lecture in Lagos on Wednesday this week, leaders of the Southern regions and the Middle Belt demanded for restructuring of the country as a way of moving forward, warning that failure to restructure the country could be a recipe for its disintegration.
They made the call through a team, including the leader of Pan Niger Delta Forum, Chief Edwin Clark, President-General of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief John Nwodo, Afenifere leader, Ayo Adebanjo and Air Commodore Dan Suleiman, President of Middle Belt Forum, which visited the Senate President, Bukola Saraki.
When Clark, who led the delegation, asked Nwodo to present the case of the group, the Ohanaeze President-General said: “We have come to you at a very difficult time in the history of our country. We are visiting the National Assembly because of its unique position in our constitution. The democratic system we run in our country rests on the three organs of government.
“For these three arms, the other two function in accordance with laws made by this arm. This arm characterises democracy because in a military government you will have both the judiciary and the executive.
“But it is only in a democratic government that you have the parliament. The parliament is a microcosm of the people because every section of the country has by adult suffrage delegated its voice to this parliament.
“We have watched the helplessness of the National Assembly where members of the executive even refuse your invitations to come and make explanations contrary to provisions of the constitution.
“We have found the helplessness of the Senate when you can be invaded in spite of the security adornment in this place controlled by the executive and the seat of the Senate President is almost invaded but for the personal security of the aides of its leadership.
“This is because our system makes the tail wag the dog rather than the dog waging the tail. This cannot be in a fountain of legislative authority for executive implementation, and yet they toy with the system.
“We have come to tell you that it is in our view that it is because we have this over-concentration of powers in the Federal Government contrary to the agreement that our forefathers entered into for the nation called Nigeria. That governance has failed in our country. That economic development has failed,” the group said, adding that “the way out of the problems bedeviling the country is a revisit of the power devolution clause that was rejected by the parliament in ongoing constitution alteration process as promised by the National Assembly.”
Chief Ayo Adebanjo, who led South West delegates to the meeting, added that “the way the country is going, any interest outside immediate restructuring of the country would amount to playing with fire.”
Responding, Saraki said the 8th National Assembly has been working hard to create enabling environment that will attract investors and that the parliament would continue along that line.
On the call to revisit clauses that were rejected during the ongoing constitution review process, Saraki said the National Assembly is ready to reconsider the clauses and that it would do so after the passage of the 2018 budget.
He assured that the National Assembly was prepared to address issues raised by the group “because there is no alternative.”
He said, “If we want to defend our democracy, it is not about me. We will come and go. It is about the institution. We must work to grow the institution and strengthen the institution. You have raised a number of issues on the economy. There are opportunities ahead but it is difficult for people to invest where there is no rule of law.”
Earlier, other eminent Nigerians, including former Secretary General of the Commonwealth, Chief Emeka Anyaoku and General Zamani Lekwot, called for urgent restructuring of Nigeria to fiscal federalism to avert “imminent disintegration of the country.”
They made the call during the 10th Memorial Symposium of Senator Abraham Adesanya, Theme” Leadership and the Future of Nigeria”Held on Wednesday 2-5-2108, At Shell Hall, Muson Centre, Onikan, Lagos, where Anyaoku served as the Guest Speaker.
Sentiments of ethnic nationalities
But Chief Chekwas Okorie, the Founder and National Chairman of United Progressives Party (UPP) told The Nation on Friday that more than the burning issue of restructuring, sentiments of ethnic nationalities would largely influence voters’ choices in 2019.
As he puts it: “The truth that is self-evident is that overwhelming majority of Nigerian citizens believe that the present geopolitical structure of the country is the major impediment to the development of Nigeria. The issue of restructuring of the geopolitical architecture and federation of Nigeria will play dominant role in the 2019 campaigns. The political parties that canvass this critical issue as a social contract expressly contained in their manifesto registered with INEC will definitely attract the attention of the electorate that is growing steadily in political consciousness. The APC-led Federal Government under President Muhammadu Buhari has divided Nigerians more than any government before it along ethnic and religious lines. The federal character provision in the Nigerian Constitution has been observed mainly in the breach. Nepotism, sectionalism and parochialism noticeable in appointments into public offices, the National Security Council and government policy thrust have fueled the feeling of alienation among Nigerians. Consequently, ethnic, religious and sectional sentiments shall influence the pattern of voting in the 2019 general elections. The people of the Middle Belt and most of Southern Nigeria are already showing strong interest in the matter of the self- determination of all of Nigeria’s Ethnic Nationalities. In fact, it is already being promoted by the United Progressive Party which I lead as National Chairman that self-determination of Nigeria’s Ethnic Nationalities is indeed superior and more easily implementable than the vexed issue of restructuring. The 2019 general elections shall be like no other before it in all considerations. I venture to state that INEC and the security agencies are critical factors in whether Nigeria shall survive the 2019 general election and remain as one country,” he said.
Fear of insecurity
In his response, Dr. Sonny Ajala, a practicing lawyer in Abuja, told The Nation that age will not be the major determinant of election campaigns and voting in 2019. “Frankly speaking, I don’t share the view of age playing material role in the 2019 elections as the dynamics of our society is not just peculiar but grossly steeped in mundane issues of religion and ethnicity. Have you wondered why no single state of the Federation since 1999 stands out in any cognizable human index? For me, the matrix of the 2019 elections will be apprehension of sudden tragic death by terrorism, militancy, criminal banditry such as kidnapping, abduction, rape, arson, etc. Therefore, the weighty consideration for most political actors will be will my existence, freedom and wellbeing be sustained after 2019 elections is won and lost? Since political contest in Nigeria is not based on any ideological leaning, the common attraction that shapes voting pattern are: personal interest, group/sectional interest and interplay of external forces. Therefore, the mind of the voter will most likely be agitated by the existential question: ‘If my wellbeing was seriously threatened during the preceding year, what guarantee do I have upon the status quo remaining? For the next four years, it is safe to remark that the fear factor is seemingly blind to age. The fear factor cut across the political divide, religious persuasions, ethnic/tribal colouration, economic and financial standing,” he said.
Anti-corruption and Economy
Comrade Wilfred Frank Ogbotobo, the Coordinator of South-south Legacy Forum told The Nation that restructuring, insecurity, anti-corruption and economy will dominate 2019 election campaigns, adding that electorates will however want to know the ability of the candidate to impact in these critical areas.
As he puts it: “On the surface, there will be a lot of glamour and hype on issues like restructuring, insecurity, anti-corruption and the economy. Of course, these are very fundamental issues that should form the crux of any electoral campaign, but the fact remains that politicians in Nigeria only dwell on them during periods like this,” he said.
Ogbotobo explained however, that “discerning minds are aware of the fact that the underlying trajectory of the 2019 campaigns is between corruption and anti-corruption.”
On security, he said “the Buhari administration has largely contained the audacious advances and gains of the Boko Haram insurgency, and many other volatile threats that confronted it in different theaters of insecurity in the country like the Niger Delta Avengers and the IPOB Biafra agitations.
“In the case of the Middle Belt crises, the President has displayed exceptional focus and in his characteristic manner, he has shown the needed political will to confront the root causes of the crises in order to design an acceptable peace and security architecture for the region.”
Ogbotobo added that “the issues at stake are very complex. Moreover, we cannot afford to address them effectively by some ad hoc solutions. Crises involving the Middle Belt have always proved intractable. The Middle East and South Sudan are instances.
“The fact that he has not opted for the failed quick fixes that previous administrations adopted, such as the Odi massacres and the genocidal destructions of Zaki Biam and other communities, should not be misrepresented as indifference to the killings and wanton destructions that have taken alarming dimensions recently.
“Recall that in September 2001, exactly this same scenario played out. While killings took place daily, highly placed Nigerians and regional leaders chose to spread lies and misrepresentations that did not help to prevent recurrence.
We must be honest on issues of security, not politicize to inflame the system with the intention to play down the spectacular accomplishments of the Armed Forces and the PMB administration.
“Secondly, on the economy, I believe there is a silent transformation going on. In spite of the challenges associated with the reforms, ordinary Nigerians are steadily coming to terms with the reality of our condition and the fact that we must walk this road if we are concerned about a brighter and more secured prosperous future for this country.
The reality we face is the struggle to get out of the mess left behind by the PDP and never to allow ourselves treading this path. Today, the administration’s economic diversification philosophy is successfully converting militant youths to great rice farmers in the Niger Delta and elsewhere, without fanfare.
“On the issue of restructuring, it has become a joker in the hands of failed politicians in need of relevance whenever they are in very tight and disadvantaged circumstances. I believe strongly that Buhari is not averse to rebalancing the lopsided and unproductive federal structure. However, we cannot achieve the desired objective if we do not first loosen the iron grip of corruption on the system.
So, head and tail, the 2019 campaigns is a straight battle between the forces of corruption and the war against corruption. We urge Nigerians to look through the beautiful masks and sweet melodies. As former Prime Minister David Cameron once put it, the climb may seem difficult but the view from the summit is worth it.”
Candidate’s individual credibility
For Engr. Nwabueze Onwuneme, an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, the credibility of the candidate will be the major campaign issue in the forthcoming election. Onwuneme, an Abia State APC State House of Assembly aspirant for Umuahia North State Constituency seat, told The Nation that for 2019 elections, the major focus would be individual acceptance rather than sheer party affiliation.
According to him, “the major focus this time would be the credibility and acceptance of individual candidate. No political party will tell their candidate not to work for the people and let me tell you that every political party in the country has wonderful manifesto. The problem therefore has been election of the wrong individuals. So, from now, it is important we vote only for the right individuals with positive ideas, irrespective of political party.”
Aside these outstanding factors, The Nation investigation shows that average Nigerian voter seems to have become more critical and so may spring surprises. This, as Okorie said, suggests that 2019 General Elections may be poised to be like no other before it. So, it remains to be seen what would turn out to be the winning mantra.