Tag: 2019 Presidential Elections

  • 2019 polls: Presidency welcomes endorsement by 60 Presidential candidates

    The Presidency on Tuesday welcomed the endorsement of 2019 Presidential Elections as free, fair and credible by 60 presidential candidates and chairmen of their parties.

    President Muhammadu Buhari had won the election ahead of the Peoples Democratic Party candidate and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar.

    The opposition party had headed to court over the matter.

    But the Presidency on Tuesday urged the opposition to accept the loss with grace and maturity.

    It was reacting to the press conference of the Joint Forum.

    The Presidency had assured that President Buhari would look into the Electoral Act as the candidates had advised.

    Read Also: Presidency: Obasanjo invited to Democracy Day celebration

    A statement by the Senior Special Assistant on Media and publicity, Garba Shehu, reads “We are encouraged by the patriotism of the Presidential Candidates expressed in clear and matured language. We are convinced that, regardless of our different political persuasions we can work together to improve electoral integrity in Nigeria,’’

    The Presidency said it is in agreement with the Joint Forum that “despite the temporary setbacks experienced at the beginning, INEC managed to produce an election in which the voice of the ordinary people counted. Democracy is founded on the will of the people and INEC did well to ensure this outcome was achieved in the 2019 elections.’’

    The Presidency restated that “the success of democracy does not only depend on electoral laws, but also on behaviour, character and attitude of politicians.’’

    The Presidency reiterated that “do-or-die politics is a threat to the success of electoral laws and democracy. And you don’t need to kill in order to serve the people.’’

    The Presidency assured members of the joint forum of the 60 political parties and chairmen of parties that the President will not spare any effort in signing the Electoral Act into law after looking into it.

  • Our fears, our expectations, by Nigerian voters

    Despite the widespread shock and disappointment caused by the 11th hour postponement of the presidential and National Assembly elections last Saturday, voters are now rearing to go for the rescheduled polls. The police have allayed fears about violence before, during and after the elections with Kano State Police Commissioner Wakili Mohammed assuring residents of adequate protection of their lives and property. He told The Nation in Kano that officers and men of the State Police Command are working round the clock to keep violence at bay.

    The police, according to him, have teamed up with other security agencies to ensure peaceful polls. He warned youths against making themselves available to politicians for use as thugs, saying anyone found engaging in acts capable of disrupting the electoral process would be arrested and made to face the full wrath of the law. Already, about 950 suspected political thugs have been arrested and arraigned by the police. He said the suspects will remain in prison custody until after the elections.

    Wakili appealed to Kano residents to come out en masse to perform their civic responsibility, adding that trained security operatives would be on ground to ensure their security. A coalition of INEC-accredited domestic election observers described Kano as safe and ready for the elections. In a communiqué, the coalition team leader, Friday Maduka, and the secretary, Fidelis Nweke, urged foreign observers and other stakeholders to come to Kano and perform their duties as ”Kano is safe and peaceful. There is no course for alarm for running out of the state for fear of election violence.”

    They added: “The various security agencies in the state have been able to set up a formidable security structure that guarantees safety of lives and property during and after the elections in the state. Hence, Kano State is safe for the conduct of the general elections.” A human rights activist, Hajiya Binta Aliyu, said no amount of intimidation would stop her from coming out to vote for candidates of her choice. She said: “I am not only willing to vote, I have taken it upon myself to mobilise people to come out and exercise their civic responsibilities on that day.

    “Nigeria is the only country we have, and we cannot make it a better place if we refuse to do what is right as patriotic citizens. “I understand that some people are expressing fear over President Muhammadu Buhari’s comment on ballot box snatchers. “For me, it is not a big deal to ask security agencies to deal with the criminals. First of all, somebody snatching ballot box during elections is not only an enemy of democracy but also an irresponsible citizen. It is a criminal offence and must be discouraged. “Anybody who refuses to come and cast his vote because of President Buhari’s comment is not being fair to Nigeria’s democracy. So, I urge fellow Nigerians to come out en mass so that we can make democracy work in this country.” One of the foreign observer groups – Pan African Women’s Project of South Africa – called for security beef up in Kano, following fears that terrorists might want to strike during the elections with a view to intimidating voters. Its spokesperson, Mphoentle Keitseng, however, urged voters to come out and elect candidates of their choice.

    A Kano-based businessman, Alhaji Bashir Umar, feared that last week’s postponement of the elections would affect the exercise. “I know Nigerians’ mentality. Many may not be too keen to come out and vote because they believe INEC and government are not serious about the whole arrangement,” he said. A group, Kwara Youths Network, an umbrella body of about 32 youth organisations in Kwara State, is optimistic that the elections will be hitch-free. The group launched a voter’s education and sensitization programme for youths in the state to shun thuggery before, during and after the elections. The Assistant Director of Publicity of the group, Jimoh Modibbo Ibrahim, said: “Our message and our sensitization has always been directed at the youths. “The first message is for the youths not to allow themselves to be used by politicians, not to destabilize the electoral processes. “The youths are now much more informed that no candidate should be elected through godfatherism but on the basis of what he can offer. The rate at which youths had hitherto been used to perpetrate electoral malfeasance will be reduced in the forthcoming elections because there is a lot of awareness from our group and other groups.

    “The message of our organisation is ‘cast your vote and stand by your vote.’ Standing by your vote does not mean that you should stand where voting is ongoing. A cybercafé operator, Juwon Medaiyese, is confident that the elections will be violence-free, adding, “I am not envisaging any violence but hitches here and there.” He said: “Nigerians should troop out en masse and peacefully vote candidates of their choice. And my appeal to political parties is that they should tell their members to be law abiding in their conduct. “For the security agencies, they should follow the order given by the President on ballot box snatchers, and they should be civil with the law abiding citizens who will troop out to cast their votes.”

    Ilorin based legal practitioner, John Baiyeshea (SAN) is optimistic that Nigeria will remain after the elections. He said: “I can say without doubt that there will be challenges. But as a people and as a nation with hope and faith in God, we shall overcome. “I advise Nigerians to be vigilant and refuse any attempt to lure them to commit any wrong.”   Uncertainty in Imo, Ebonyi, Anambra Apprehension seems to persist in Imo State following last week’s postponement of the elections, as residents prepare for today’s When Sergeant Mustapha Ali (not real names) was deployed to man the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) headquarters in Lagos penultimate Friday, he did not envisage that the task would be so draining. But like the close to 400 other policemen and fire fighters drawn from commands and units across the country, he has since been sleeping in vehicles, open spaces, and makeshift mats with his weapon strapped around him.

    The issue, he said, was not much about where to sleep, knowing that they were expected to keep watch round the clock. “The main problem is having to queue up to poo or bathe,” he said. “Imagine more than 400 of us queuing up every morning to use one toilet and bathroom. “I can tell you that some people have not had their bath since that Friday. I pity the women among us the most. I cannot even begin to think about how they are coping. There are too many mosquitoes here. Just too many. “Another bad thing is that INEC has not provided food for us since the election was postponed. We were fed yam and stew on that Friday morning when we arrived the office, and then Eba in the afternoon. Since then, no one has asked how we feed. “Before now, they used to pay N50,000 during governorship election duty, but it was N35,000 we got this time around. It is from that amount I have been buying food from the vendors around.

    I heard that INEC was supposed to pay us N1,000 a day as feeding allowance, but till today (Wednesday), I have not received a kobo. “It was challenging to get food on Sunday because the women selling did not come out. Our colleagues serving in Lagos later went out and brought food towards the evening, and that was what we ate.” Another policeman identified simply as Inspector Bade, who was deployed to Agege part of Lagos for the election, said he had to trek from there to his home in Mushin (about five kilometres) after the election was postponed. “I was deployed to Agege for the election and I got to the place around 8 pm. There were other officers there. It was around 1:30 am that we heard they had postponed elections. Some people whose houses were not far away left while the rest of us around slept in the open air. As a policeman, I am used to that, so, it was not a problem. Where I faced a challenge was going back to my house. There were no vehicles, so, I trekked from Agege to Mushin.

    “A signal was later sent that all the rank and files should remain in the areas they were deployed while officers from the rank of Assistant Superintendent of Police (ASP) should return to their units.” During a visit to INEC’s head office, our correspondent observed the presence of a lot of policemen, including those from the Police Mobile Force (PMF), Counter Terrorism Unit (CTU), Special Protection Unit (SPU), Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) and the Explosives Ordinance Disposal (EOD). Also observed was an Armoured Personnel Carrier (APC), two Black Maria vans from the Lagos State Taskforce, an OP MESA patrol vehicle with about five soldiers and a Major in it. There were no officers of the Nigerians Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC) on sight nor those of the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC). While the police operatives described sleeping inside vehicles and open spaces infested with mosquitoes as normal, members of the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) subjected to similar treatments would have none of it. The corps members were further petrified by the alleged lack of empathy from INEC and the NYSC who they claimed provided neither food nor shelter and did not pay their allowances.

    Findings carried out by The Nation revealed that the corps members were entitled to N4,500 three-day training allowance payable on arrival at the training centre called RAC (Registration Area Centre), but INEC did not keep to the agreement. Corps members who expressed their displeasure said some of their colleagues could not leave the RACs last Saturday morning because they were cash trapped and hoped that INEC officials would turn up to pay them. “I know of a lady who did not want to go home because she said she had spent all the money on her to get to the RAC in the hope that INEC or NYSC officials would come there but no one showed up. Not even an apology until we started the e-petition,” said one of the corps members posted to Epe in Lagos. According to her, the officials were to pay training allowances at the RACs a day to the election but they neither showed up nor apologised for disappointing the corps members. “Apparently, our sleeping outside was in vain. We have to sleep outside again to be able to get funds for the actual elections.

    The training allowance was N1,500 each for the three-day training, but we had eight days in all with INEC. Aside the trainings which were started during CDS (community development service), we were given three days training. “There was another day for sensitisation, another day for swearing the oath of neutrality and another day for being present at the RAC. In total, we had to meet them eight times, but only three days of training counted. I was told that the total sum for each election is N13,000. “I should go to the queue to collect N4500? I am still wondering why it cannot be paid to our accounts. I see it as another way not to pay everyone, because a lot of people will not want to go and queue up for N4,500. We were not given food or snacks,” she said. Contrary to claims by NYSC that participation was voluntary, The Nation gathered that corps members were threatened with extension of service year or withholding of their discharge certificates if they failed to turn up for the exercise.

    It was also said that the service had assured them of better accommodation and welfare packages had been emplaced for those who would be deployed for the elections. A corps member deployed in Kogi State, who pleaded anonymity, said they were made to wait from 10 am to 7:14 pm at the INEC head office on that Friday before Polling Officers (POs) were called forward to assist their Supervisory Presiding Officer (SPO). She said her SPO gave her and others assigned to her N4,000 feeding and transportation allowances when the elections were postponed. The corps member said: “We were conveyed in two buses to the Registration Area Centre (RAC) which is a Secondary School in Ogale Aduge, where the SPO distributed materials to all Pos. I helped my PO in the collection of the sensitive and insensitive materials for the two voting points. “We could not share the materials among APOVPs because before we finished receiving from the SPO, it was some minutes to 5 am on Election Day, so all the materials were returned as received. “Mats were made available for us to sleep on, but we could not. We received all the materials, which made the work very hectic. When the SPO announced that the election had been postponed till February 23, I was devastated and angry because of all my efforts.

    “He apologised for the inconveniences and asked us to return the materials given to us. We did and we were all paid transport and feeding allowances of N4,000 by the SPO.” Narrating her ordeal, Opeyemi Adeleke, a corps member posted to Badore in Ajah area of Lagos, said: “We found our way to Ajah. They told those that were going to Amuwo Odofin from Eti Osa that there would be a bus, but I do not know if they followed through. “Some people were told to assemble by 9 am, others 12 pm, 3 pm and 4pm. They said we should assemble on time because they would come to address us and share sensitive materials by midnight. That was why a lot of corps members got to their RACs early on that day. “I was to be an Electoral Officer at Badore and we were to assemble at Addo Primary School to get our sensitive materials. I got there and everywhere was a blackout. People sat on their benches, waiting.

    It was too hot and dark, so we had to sit in the open space. “It was around 11pm that some officials came to switch on the light, which again went off soon after. Even the NYSC camp was not this terrible. That was the least they should have done. Rumours started flying out that the election might be postponed. “So, we were all awaiting midnight when they would share the sensitive materials, but around 2 am, the security man came and told us to start going because the election had been postponed. It was apparently too late at that time, so we had to sleep. “When a friend woke me up at 5:30 am, other corps members had already left. I was warned by my family members not to leave. I called an Uber vehicle only for policemen to start stopping us at that time of the morning for reasons we did not know.

    I was livid. “I got home and cried. I could not tell my parents about it till today, because they would be disappointed. So, assuming the election was not postponed, we would have been silent about that inhuman treatment that, at least, we were paid N13,000. But the fact that everything was a waste and we all have to go through that all over again, is probably more of the pain. “I took my toothbrush, paste, towel and soap along, but where could we have bathed? Maybe at the open space of the school.” For Blessing Pelumi, the experience was horrific. She lamented the fact that they became a meal for mosquitoes. “The experience of that Friday night was very bad. There was no security, no provision for shelter. It really sucks. I am not willing to participate again. I slept outside and was left for mosquitoes to feed on.” For Richard Olorunfemi, to say the experience was horrible would be an understatement. He said he slept on a bench that was half his size in a classroom ravaged by mosquitoes. He also said he spent more than N10,000 on transportation, feeding and other logistics involved in meeting up with the trainings and the earlier proposed election day.

    He said: “Initially, we were supposed to have just a two-day training and were paid N4,500 as training allowance. However, we had extra three days training without any increment on the training allowance. “No one knows for sure what we will get for the job, but there have been rumours that the total amount for both the February 23 and March 9 elections will be N30,500, including the N4,500 training allowance. “We were made to sign some forms, including interest and oath forms, on separate days. Also, we went to the National Stadium for sensitisation. It could have been better if all this was done on a single day without subjecting corps members to extra stress and expenditure. “I worked as INEC ad-hoc staff in the 2015 general elections when I was a UNILAG (University of Lagos) student. I see it as a way of contributing my quota to the development of Nigeria. I am willing to participate again, but I have to reiterate here that I am highly demoralised with the conduct of both INEC and NYSC. “They should both have issued official apologies on our ill treatments and the eventual postponement of the polls. We do not do this for the meager money they want to pay. We do it for the visions we crave- a better Nigeria.”

    Timilehin Falade said he arrived the RAC centre at Surulere and could not sleep because the place was not conducive. “I stayed up all night watching movie and just gisting with the few people I met there. I would still participate because I am sure there is no replacement for those of us who may want to opt out, and I hate disappointing people. “There was no proper welfare for the ad-hoc staff. People slept on the floor in mosquito infested areas and there was no security at all. The allowances have not been paid yet; just the training fee,” said Falade. Tosin Adedeji said no INEC official came to their RAC until 11 pm when one was sighted and the official later disappeared.

    “The major stress was no mattresses, no toilet and no food. But I will still participate for the good of the country.” A corps member in Ebonyi State, Temitope Babalola, who was deployed in Ikwo village, said she did not eat until 11 pm on that day because she was running around to identify her RAC and meet up with the INEC meeting. “At Ikwo, names of POs, APO, VP, APO1, APO2, APO3, did not come out on Thursday as they ought to be. They came out on Friday morning. We were at INEC office early on Friday and I found my name around 8 am. Then we were asked to be at INEC office by 12 pm, which we did. “We did not prepare well. We did not cook because market women opened late. When we got there, we were told it is now 2 pm, and we stayed. Later on, we were told it would be 4pm, and we were very hungry. We were attended to at 6 pm. “We all met with our SPOs. Later on we were asked to gather by 8:30 pm for reasons we did not know. The time elapsed and they didn’t call us. The environment was now very cold. Majority of us did not come with blankets.

    There was too much mosquito bites. “I had to go home around 11 pm because I could not bear it anymore. I was tired. Later on, I heard that the election had been postponed. Everyone protested. We had to collect our allowances. “Majority of us are down with illnesses now due to the effect of the cold and mosquito bites. It was a terrible experience.” Another corps member, who asked not to be named, said no one came to address them at the RAC they converged on in Mushin, adding, “There was no provision for lunch or dinner. I was shocked. I least expected this from Nigeria. We were not given money at all.” Our correspondent gathered that rather than address the issues raised by corps members in Lagos, the NYSC on Monday set up a panel on youth corps members posted to Surulere whose pictures of their sleeping environment went viral on the social media. Twelve of the corps members were invited for a meeting with NYSC and INEC officials only to discover that they were deceived to come to the headquarters to face a panel. While others ended up begging for forgiveness, it was gathered that about four, including a lawyer who started an e-petition and a lady that granted interview to a news media, were issued queries for ‘inciting protests.” Although calls made to NYSC State Coordinator, Mohammed Momoh, went unanswered, it was gathered that he had issued a statement appealing for calm among corps members.

    Read also: Buhari, Atiku go for broke

    Momoh in the statement said the NYSC had already registered its protest to the Resident Electoral Commissioner for INEC in the state on the treatment of corps members at the RACs. “Corp members who called the state coordinator and their LGIs will attest to the fact that we were up throughout the night attending to complaints of corps members, especially those that could be immediately remedied while others were noted for the attention of the REC. “Do not allow yourself to be used to compound the challenge facing the nation. Rather, I enjoin you to be part of the solution. I wish to refrain all patriotic corps members from being part of the protest. We will do our best through constant engagement with INEC, Lagos State to ensure improvement at the RACs,” Momoh said in the broadcast addressed to corps members in the state. Contacted for reaction on the allegations against INEC in Lagos, the spokesman, Olufemi Akinbiyi, said it is not true that policemen were not fed or provided the daily allowance of N1,000 promised them. On the issue concerning corps members, he said efforts were on to ascertain the best payment method for their allowances, adding that the agency was trying to prevent a situation whereby money would be paid into their accounts and some of them would not turn up to perform the duties.

    He said: “On the issue of their money, Lagos State is a cashless society, so, there is a limit to the amount of cash the commission can carry. We had a meeting with the leadership of the NYSC yesterday (Tuesday) to find out how to  pay the money to them. They suggested payments into their accounts but we are still discussing to see the best option. “We want to avoid the situation where we will pay it into the account of those that will not work. So, those issues are there. It happened in 2015, we paid into the accounts of names given to us but many of them did not work. The corps members’ money are available but we are working out the mode of payment. “We are planning to see those that are willing to work so that we have the number and details.

    Those that have worked will be paid definitely. “We are using primary and secondary schools where they ought to stay overnight, so it is not as if we are going to rent hotels for them. This is not the first time. They were provided with water and light, what else do they want?” Police Public Relations Officer, Frank Mba, a Chief Superintendent (CSP), was also contacted on concerns raised by some of the policemen and he said he was unaware of any promises by INEC and does not work for the commission. Mba said most policemen have been paid their allowances and that those who were yet to receive theirs must be as a result of technicalities arising from mistakes in filling their forms, which were being rectified. He said: “But I know generally, policemen have been paid their allowances, and you can go out on the field and investigate. So, if there are police officers who have not been paid, it might be as a result of technical issues. Maybe, the person did not fill his or her form thoroughly or a mistake was made while the person was turning in his or her form in his own account particulars.

    “If you do a sample in the field, and you discover that the buck of police personnel cutting across both junior and senior ranks have been paid, then you must know that whoever has not been paid must have reasons, probably a mistake. “Such things are correctable. So, the few people who have not received their allowances have already been directed to fill form so that those things can be rectified.”  polls. There were long queues at petrol stations by those who want to have sufficient petrol in their vehicles and generators at home, and at Automated Teller Machine (ATM) points by those who don’t want to be caught napping by unexpected expenses during the election weekend. A lot of residents have also stocked their homes with food items and other essential items as a precautionary measure. At the Okigwe Road branch of a new generation bank where a handful of customers were seen waiting to use the ATM, The Nationgathered that there are fears over the outcome of today’s elections. One of the customers, who didn’t want his name to be mentioned, said: “We are not sure of what will happen on Saturday, and nobody wants to be caught unawares.

    For me, I need to keep enough money to take care of myself and family.” The retired civil servant added: “People are afraid about what may happen. I have asked all my children to return home with their families and stay in Owerri until after the elections. I am not saying that war is breaking out, but one has to take precautions.” A large number of residents were also seen at the Arugo Motor Park in Owerri, boarding vehicles to their hometowns. Mr. Paul Egwolor, who was travelling with his wife and four children to Okada, Edo State, said: “I am registered to vote in Imo State, but I have to relocate my family to the village before I come back to participate in the election. I took the decision because I know that if anything happens, it will be easier to take care of myself without my family.” On why he was apprehensive, the civil engineer said: “From previous experiences, we know what normally happens during elections like this, especially now when it is not certain if INEC will conduct the election. However, veteran politician, Chief Emmanuel Iwuanyanwu, speaking on the phone, said: “There is nothing to be afraid of. There won’t be any form of crisis. Nigerians should come out and cast their votes without fear.

    The postponement of the election was God’s answer to the prayer of Nigerians, because if INEC had continued with the election, Nigeria would have been thrown into crisis.” He said the only thing that can precipitate crisis is “if INEC fails to conduct a free and fair election, or if the Federal Government uses security agents to rig the election in favour of any party.” There are also fears in Ebonyi State on account of the recent wave of politically motivated violence in the state. The violence includes the murder of a PDP member at Ugwulangu community in Ohaozara Local Government Area, and an attack on the Vice Chairman of Ikwo Local Government Area of   the state, Mrs. Regina Iteshi, who is currently batting for survival at Federal Teaching Hospital Abakaliki after she was physically assaulted.

    A day before the postponed elections, the state police command arrested two persons, Nweke Kigsley and Chijioke Uwakwe, from Ishielu and Ikwo local government areas of the state for attempting to blow up a bridge in the state. The suspects had planted an object suspected to be a bomb on the Idembia Bridge, Ezza South Local Government Area, when they were arrested. There were also shootouts by politicians and their supporters on the eve of the postponed elections in Ishielu and Izzi local government areas while over 30 houses were allegedly burnt down in the violence in Izzi Local Government Aarea with other property worth millions destroyed. A member of an observer group from South Africa, Pan-African Women Project, Lebogang Ugorji, said in Abakaliki that the violence and the polls postponement might lead to voters’ apathy in the state. She asked INEC and security agencies to rise to the occasion to ensure a hitch-free exercise in the state. Police spokesperson in the state, Loveth Odah, said security agencies are on top of the situation. She said the Police and other security agencies have taken measures to beef up security in the state, especially in the affected area. Also speaking, the Chairman of the PDP in the state, Onyekachi Nwebonyi, urged the people to vote on election day as security agencies have assured the political parties of security at the polls. A resident, Moses Eze, told our correspondent that he will not go out to vote.  “I will not be voting on Saturday.

    The atmosphere is charged and no one knows what will happen on that day. You can see what happened in Izzi and other parts of the state.” But reminded that the security agencies and government have assured of security, Mr Eze, a businessman, queried: “Where were they when the attacks were happening? We have lost interest in them protecting us.” Another resident, Victor Omebe, a tricycle operator, said he would be at home resting on that day. The Chairman of the All Progressive Congress (APC) in the state, Eze Nwachukwu, expressed fears that the election might be marred by low turnout. He said: “Yes, we are anticipating a low voter turnout. But we have been mobilising our people to come out and vote.

    People should go out and vote and also stay there and protect their votes.” The fears in Anambra State stem from the rivalry between Governor Willie Obiano and the PDP presidential running mate, Mr. Peter Obi. Some residents believe the rivalry between the two politicians is causing undue tension in the state. A teacher, Mr Alloysius Okafor, told The Nation that the allegation from the opposition camp that Obiano had instructed state employees to submit their PVCs for the purpose of rigging election for President Mohammadu Buhari was untrue. Pastor Jude Iweka said there would be no problem because “God loves our country Nigeria.”   Time for INEC to prove its mettle, says Otaloro The APC Director of Media and Publicity in   Ondo State, Mr. Steve Otaloro, challenged INEC to use the elections to prove its mettle by putting integrity first. He said: “The security agents must be at alert. Their services must be rendered in an unbiased manner. Their actions and reactions must be sure-footed, swift and humane, not brutal.

    “There must not be room for hoodlums to operate anywhere, particularly near the polling booths. Orderliness and decorum should be the watchword. “Nigerians should know that there is nothing to be afraid of as adequate safety precautions have been taken by the security agents towards the day. “It is part of it to remind the electorate that President Muhammadu Buhari has championed the signing of the Peace Accord by all the contesting political parties in this election, and that covers the election day. “Everyone should follow the rules and regulations guiding the exercise. They should not inhibit INEC officials, the security agents and the accredited observers at the polling booths. “My advice is that they should report any act of illegality or malpractice to the appropriate quarters rather than embark on self-justice or mob action.

    All those things do not help. “I am confident that if all of us resolved to shun violence, electoral malpractice and vote purchase on the said day, then looking forward to a successful presidential election exercise is sure as sunrise.” Also speaking, a rights activist in Ondo State, Charles Titiloye, said: “Those who think it will be business as usual will not only be defeated in their constituencies but may be ultimately forced by the electorate to retire from politics. “The path to a new Nigeria may not be easy, but Nigerians should ensure that this election is used as an avenue to showcase our democracy to the whole world that we can do it without foreign intervention. “Ethnic and religious sentiments should be downplayed in favour of our joint national responsibility to our people irrespective of race, creed and belief. Nigeria will continue to be respected as a leader on the Africa continent and across the globe as we are about to set a new standard in governance.

  • 2019 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS: WHAT DATA TELLS US COULD HAPPEN

    When Professor Attahiru Jega announced the official results of the 2015 presidential election, majority of Nigerians jubilated.  Not convinced, many skeptics imagined what could happen should the incumbent government refuse to accept the outcome. A national uproar was possible but, thankfully, did not materialize. President Goodluck Jonathan graciously conceded, passed the baton to Muhammadu Buhari, and made way in the Villa for a new government to march on.

    Another presidential election is here. Nigerians are about to decide who will rule them for the next four years or beyond, a decision enabled with the aid of the permanent voters’ card – PVC. Voter registration figures for the coming polls suggest Nigerians want to have a say. INEC says this year’s voter register includes an unprecedented 84,040,084 names, representing a 20% increase from the last election cycle.

    Narrowing down on voters’ registration geo-politically

    A close look at voter registration by geo-political zones over the years opens up an interesting discussion. The North West had the highest number in 2011 and 2015. But while they retain the distinction in the current election cycle, the highest increase in voter registration between 2015 and 2019 occurred in the South South and South East geo-political zones. What does this hold for the election?

    Statewise, Delta and Rivers recorded the highest increase in new voters across the country. In Delta, a keen contest leading up to the governorship elections may have precipitated the surge in new registrations. The APC gubernatorial primaries involved, among other heavyweights in the state, Prof Pat Utomi. Also, the state’s former Governor, Emmanuel Uduaghan, is a candidate for a senatorial seat under the APC, with his successor Ifeanyi Okowa seeking re-election. A similar scenario is at play in Rivers state where the incumbent PDP Governor Nyesom Wike is aiming to neuter any influence by former governor Rotimi Amaechi. The Transport Minister is tasked by the Buhari re-election campaign to do more to capture more votes in the state this time than in 2015.

    What else could trigger the residents of these states to come out en masse and register if not to vote out the current administration? A stream of protest votes is on the cards.At the other end of the scale, the North Central zone has the lowest increase in voters registration while the North East ranks third. The two zones house Plateau, Benue, Borno, the most troubled states in Nigeria.Residents of these states have suffered Boko Haram  insurgency and Herdsmen attack more than any other state in the northern zones. A closer look at individual zones shows that similar patterns exist in the two zones. The number of new registrants in the troubled states are close. The three states have about five hundred thousand increase.

     

    A Twist: Only half of those who register actually Vote
    Nigerian democracy is growing but there is a wired pattern. If voters registration is equal to voters turn out, more than 84 million Nigerians should be out on the streets on February 16, at different polling units to exercise their voting rights. But from what past elections teach us about voter turnout in Nigeria, what should we really expect on Saturday?

     

    In fact, only about five out of 10 of the people who claim they want better governance, having gone through the exercise of getting registered, actually turn up on D-day.

    INEC is empowered by law the conduct elections. It is estimated to have more than $500 million (precisely N189,207,544,893 was approved by the Senate in 2018) at its disposal to run this year’s polls in as fair a manner as possible. Organizing and carrying out elections in a country such as Nigeria – which is currently dealing with major economic and security issues – can lead to a number of problems before, throughout and after Election Day. These problems can keep people away from polling stations.

    In 2011, 73,528,040 Nigerians registered but 39,469,520 votes (53.6%) were cast on Election Day. Four years later, participation fell by nearly 10% as less than half of the 66,924,005 registered voters turned out.

    The number of registered voters suggests many Nigerians are interested in the democratic process. What then causes political apathy or indifference on election day?

    Violence and Insecurity: Every election comes with the risk of violence. Knowing the history of violence during elections in Nigeria, this can constrain enthusiastic turnout, and even call into question the credibility of an electoral process. Casting their vote is the sovereign right of every citizen in any democratic government and one must be able to do this with ease and safety, free from undue interference and free from fear of any kind. Security is a major concern and its importance during elections is therefore obvious; it would make sure numerous stakeholders are able to discharge their responsibilities under the Constitution and the Electoral Act.

    President Buhari is vying for a second term but nominations for other positions within the ruling All Progressive Congress, APC, have been highly contested. This led to fragmentation within the party, defections to other parties, and some violence – as seen recently at an APC Rally where the treasurer of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW), Musiliu Akinsanya a.k.a MC Oluomo, was stabbed. NURTW is tasked with the duty of logistics during the elections, in conjunction with the Federal Road Safety Commission (FRSC)

    Cases of violence took place in the aftermath of the 2011 elections. Election Day violence was also serious in the 2007 elections, with an estimated 40-50 deaths related to electoral activity and numbers of reports of ballot box thefts, burning of local INEC offices and mobs storming offices to steal ballots and other materials. The political offices of one Delta State candidate for the House of Representatives were bombed.

    There are growing concerns that the 2019 elections will be marred by violence, in Rivers State, for example, between supporters of incumbent Governor Nyesom Wike of the PDP and his APC competitor, Rotimi Amaechi, the minister of transportation – who backs Arch Tonye Cole for the gubernatorial seat.

    Public confidence in INEC is mixed. Although applauded for organizing broadly credible elections in 2015, can the progress be sustained in 2019? For many Nigerians, electoral violence results from processes that are further compromised by the actions or inactions of the INEC or the security agencies. There are some reports that the security forces have served political ends and that many candidates gather gangs of “area boys” around them with both defensive and aggressive purpose.

    Electorates’ Perception Of The Election: The “my vote doesn’t count idea”

    Low voter turnout can also indicate that Nigerians are growing increasingly disillusioned with the young democracy and have little faith that their votes count. This is widely read across the social space where youth who make up a huge number of eligible voters, believe that the election results have already been decided even before people have had the opportunity to cast their votes.
    The youth hardly believe in the government as they think the government only pay lip service to campaign promises. This can have a psychological effect.  The general belief is that politics is only meant for some set of elites in the society and others don’t have a chance.

    Credibility of the Elections: Recurring incidents include underage voting, voter registration list errors, stuffed ballot boxes, group voting, party observers and the police instructing individuals on who to vote for, lack of privacy for voting and lack of results; all these make the voting process questionable.

    Security agents have been seen to snatch ballot boxes in the open. Even with the revolution in technology and its use in election administration, there are still remarkable challenges faced. Counting is still being done manually. The absence of adequate security as well as inadequate electoral transparency could well lead to increased violence upon the conclusion of the elections.

    INEC must proactively maintain and ensure that the electoral process is transparent to Nigerian voters and international observers if it is to maintain its credibility and public peace.


    Voter Education And Ballot Design:
    Towards the 2019 elections, most voters were told where and how to register to vote but two crucial sets of information not widespread are the location of their assigned polling station and how to properly cast a vote. Thankfully, the internet penetration has increased to over 90 million yet people still need information on voting stations and how to vote well.

    Many groups, including Nigerian political parties have voiced concerns about INEC’s chosen ballot design. Many voters find the ballot confusing and difficult to fill out properly, thus raising the likelihood of casting invalid votes.

    Two basic problems have consistently been pointed out. First, the ballots for each election were indistinguishable except for the name of the election printed at the top. Each displayed symbols for all registered political parties even in areas where only a fraction of those parties were in fact fielding candidates.

    Second, voters would be asked to indicate their preference by placing a thumbprint in a space looks far too small for an average size thumbprint to fit. The voter would then fold the ballot in a manner that would make it very likely that the thumbprint would stain other portions of the ballot, thereby casting doubt on the voter’s true intention.

    A widespread WhatsApp message from a new political party is encouraging voters to vote with their little finger instead of their thumbs to avoid being invalidated in the 2019 elections. INEC must engage in a sustained public education campaign in the lead-up to the 2019 elections, including mass media campaigns.

    Logistics: With 119,973 polling stations across the country, any delay in getting the ballots to the field can significantly affect opening times at polling stations, especially in rural areas. Ballots are known to travel from several central distribution centers, then have to be hand-counted and handed to the relevant officials for each polling station. There are many incidents of ballots not distributed in a timely manner.

    Haphazard ballot distribution throughout the country has in the past, led to the disenfranchisement of a significant number of Nigerians; many people couldn’t vote due to late poll openings and some polls received no ballots at all. The NURTW and FRSC are  mainly responsible for logistics of voting materials. Are they efficient enough or need increased capacity or is the disorganization deliberate? INEC needs to develop stronger logistical
    plans with more flexibility to prevent a recurrence of these issues.

    Ballots can be stored and distributed from locations within a reasonable distance of their appropriate polling stations. This may require a significant increase in the number of centralized locations and, possibly decrease in the number of polling stations.

    Unordered Voter List: Confusing voter rolls/lists can have a dampening effect on voter turnout and willingness. Voter rolls are usually not ordered and standardized. Voter lists need to be physically displayed within the timeline mandated by the Nigerian Electoral Act. Internet listings are still not yet sufficient with our level of internet penetration. At a minimum, they must be ordered, either alphabetically or numerically.

    According to reports from observers from the International Republican Institute, in 2007, presidential ballots were not serially numbered, unlike the national assembly ballots. This singular failure opened the entire electoral process to fraudulent activity as there was no way to track, or prove in court, that fraud took place without being able to individually identify ballots.

    Location Disenfranchisement: The idea that electorates have to vote at their registered locations needs to be looked into. Voters’ turnout can be a determinant of the election outcome. This brings to mind the just ended 3 month industrial action by the Academic Staff Union of Universities, ASUU, which has most students (who make up a large chunk of eligible voters) out of school since November 5, 2018.

    Although, the strike is called off  recently (about a week to balloting day), many students would rather be in the safety of their homes until after the election with the exception of very enthusiastic voters.

    Voters’ Turnout and Winning Strategy


    Elections are a game of numbers. In the Nigerian system, every vote counts. The effect is that getting voters to come out on Election Day is a necessity for all parties.If voters registration number were to be used as a stepping stone to winning, two states will be key to determining the 2019 presidential election result in the South South geopolitical zone for the main opposition party. Rivers and Delta will be key states for the PDP’s hopes of winning the 2019 presidential elections. Besides being the only states to give the party up to a million votes in 2015, both have the highest number of newly registered voters this year. The increase in new voters is important. The party should use these numbers to their advantage.

    Defeating the present administration requires a torrent that will neutralize the bulwark of the North Western votes. Over the past two election cycles, votes from the North West have belonged to President Buhari, forming part of his acclaimed ‘constant 12 million votes’. In 2015, three states – Kano, Katsina and Kaduna – gave the president up to one million votes each and the difference between these five states – 1,678,720 votes – made up 70.77% of the APC’s total margin of victory. Assuming the region holds firm for the president, it is imperative that the opposition’s strategists get the maximum possible turnout from the South-Southern stronghold states.


    Crashing the North West
    But does the PDP have a chance at cracking the North West wall this time?

    Zooming into the political ambiance and the realignments of influential figures in the region shows a possibility. In Kano, a battle of egos between state governor Abdullahi Ganduje and his predecessor Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso led the latter to return to the PDP sometime in 2018. Kwankwaso’s huge following in the ancient city, dating back to his days as state governor, is a formidable, indispensable asset for the Atiku Abubakar campaign if well directed. The Kwankwasiyya movement contributed to the APC’s margin of victory in Kano in 2015 being 1,688,220 votes; splitting that difference as well as claiming the majority of the over 500,000 newly registered voters is the strategy to employ.

    Also, the president’s home state of Katsina has voted for the PDP in elections before, being the home state of former president Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. President Buhari won it in 2015 by 1,246,504 votes but there is a modest chance for closing the gap, beginning with laying claim to majority of the 385,489 new voters in the state. For the PDP, the aim here will be to keep the APC’s potential margin of victory close, while getting the most of its strongholds in the South.
    But where it is about keeping it tight in Kano and Katsina, there is a potential for a flip in Jigawa. Located between Kano and Yobe states (in effect the North West/North East border state), Jigawa has the highest increase in number of voters in the country behind Rivers and Delta states. Combined with the fact that it had the highest improvement in voter turnout from 2011 to 2015, the state becomes potentially decisive for the PDP should it be able to claim majority of the votes.

     

     

    Lagosians Are Busy
    Indeed, Jigawa is more decisive for both parties than Lagos, the state with the largest number of registered voters.
    Home to 24 million inhabitants of just about every ethnic and religious affiliation, Africa’s fifth largest economy is the most curious subject for psephologists and casual students of Nigerian elections. Lagos is the abode of the wealthiest and most informed individuals in Nigeria. Yet, its apathy towards electoral participation could not be more ironic given the far-reaching impact politics and policy summersaults can have on commerce and industry. Voter turnouts of 33.06% (third lowest in the country) and 25.67% (lowest) in 2011 and 2015 respectively suggest residents have other priorities other than voting on the election day, even if movement is typically restricted and most businesses operate skeletally.
    What’s more? The margin of victory between the two major parties almost makes campaigning in the state of little significance. Of the 21 states, the APC won in 2015, Lagos ranks 15th (or seventh from bottom) in terms of the margin of victory. Essentially, it is more profitable for the APC to increase its voter turnout in Boko Haram-ravaged states like Borno and Yobe (each posted over 400,000 in victory margins) than Lagos. Apparently, supporters of both parties in the state know enough about each others’ strengths and subconsciously become reluctant to show up for the fight.

    For the PDP, a similar dynamic plays out in the Federal Capital Territory, and in states like Nasarawa, Ekiti and Taraba. Though the party won these states in 2015, it was not with margins that require them pulling out all the stops for their votes this time around.

    The Demographic Influence
    For the first time since the dawn of Nigeria’s fourth republic, there will be voters who did not experience the military administration. Hence, there is a place for considering the character of the individuals who make up numbers that could determine the coming polls.
    In consonance with population data, INEC categorizes 22.3 million voters as being students. The other categories as high are farmers/fishers, people in “Business” and housewives. These categorizations are not enough to describe how Nigerians are probably going to cast their ballots; for example, students who are also artisans may vote differently from students who are traders. Also, the geographic location, occupation and social status of the husbands of those identified as housewives could have an influence on their votes.

    However, matching the candidates’ policy positions and reactions to events could help hazard a hypothesis on the sector of the economy where the candidates are likely to get their votes. Students who have been on strike for three months may likely side with Atiku Abubakar in search for new answers, while Artisans and Farmers who have benefited from social intervention programmes such as n-power, Trader Moni and Market Moni could potentially tilt towards re-electing the president. Every other category, if taken singularly, could present toss-ups.

    This article was written with support from Open Data Research Centre, School of Media and Communication, Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos

     

  • Choose wisely, Buhari advises Nigerians

    President Muhammadu Buhari has advised Nigerians to choose wisely as they go out and vote in the 2019 Presidential Elections.

    He urged Nigerians to make a decision that will consolidate growth for the country.

    He made this appeal during his nationwide broadcast to Nigerians on Thursday evening, In Abuja.

    The President assured Nigerians that a free, fair and credible election is guaranteed under his administration.

    According to Buhari: “In making your choice this time, please ask yourself whether, and in what ways, others will do anything different to address the issues of Agriculture, Infrastructure, Security, Good Governance and Fighting Corruption. If they are only hoping to do what we are already doing successfully, we are clearly your preferred choice. Think carefully and choose wisely. This time, it is a choice about consolidating on growth for Jobs and Prosperity

    Speaking on work done by his admistration in the last three years, Buhari mentioned that although the nation had revenue shortages caused by major drop in international oil prices, the government managed to fulfill their promises of improving the country’s security which was a setback to the national development.

     “The damage that insecurity and corruption have done, over time, to our collective livelihood is incalculable. However, it is pleasing to note that our frontal attack on these twin evils is gaining momentum and bringing about visible progress,” he added.

    Furthermore, he mentioned that the country is back on the path of steady growth and out of recession completely. He said the government has embarked on several projects that include manufacturing, mining and agriculture which would lead to creation of major jobs, thereby improving the efficiency of the country’s industries.

    However, he said “we believe that Governments cannot simply proclaim jobs into existence. Job creation will only expand as a result of economic policies that enable the private sector to flourish, and this is the approach our Administration has taken.”

    Buhari told Nigerians that” the country is back on the path of steady growth and out of recession completely. The government has embarked on several projects that include manufacturing, mining and agriculture which would lead to creation of major jobs, thereby; improving the efficiency of the country’s industries.”