The Nation Newspaper

Tag: 2024

  • Expert projects cautious optimism for second half of 2024

    Expert projects cautious optimism for second half of 2024

    The economic outlook for the first half of 2024 saw the country experiencing some lull just as the pace of growth was rather sluggish.

    This was the damning verdict of Mr. Johnson Chukwu the founder of Cowry Asset Management Group. He spoke at a webinar in Lagos, recently.

    Chukwu, who still serves as the Group Managing Director (GMD/CEO) observed that Nigeria’s economy decelerated its growth rate to 2.98% in real terms in Q1 2024, down from Q4 2023 rate of 3.46% but higher than Q1 2023 growth rate of 2.31%.

    “This marks the 14th consecutive quarter of economic expansion since the exiting recession in 2020. Q1 2024 economic performance was driven by growth recorded by the services sector, which grew by 4.32% and contributed 58.04% of the GDP. Nigeria’s economic performance was dampened by sluggish performance in the agriculture sector, which accounted for 21% of the GDP but grew by only 0.18% in Q1 2024 on the back of security challenges,” he said.

    Read Also: Tinubu launches agric empowerment programme in Yobe

    Nigeria’s growth, he said, has been forecast to remain subdued in the near term as the combined effects of heightened insecurity, infrastructural deficit, particularly energy, high interest cost, volatile exchange rates and low consumer demand will continue to constrain productivity in the economy, in the near future.

    It was not all woes in the first half.

    According to him, “The oil sector grew by 5.70% year on year in Q1 2024, down from 12.11% in Q4 2023. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, it recorded a growth rate of 13.77%, contributing 6.38% to the total real GDP in Q1 2024, up from Q1 2023 and Q4 2023 levels. The non-oil sector grew by 2.80% in real terms, driven by Financial and Insurance services, Information and Communication, Trade, and Manufacturing. This growth was slightly higher than Q1 2023 but lower than Q4 2023.

    “The services sector grew by 4.32% and contributed 58.04% to the aggregate GDP, led by strong activities in finance and insurance, information and communication, and Fintech investments. The agriculture sector grew marginally by 0.18%, though a recovery from a decline of -0.90% in Q1 2023. However, its contribution to GDP decreased compared to Q1 2023 and Q4 2023.”

    The industry sector grew by 2.19%, up from 0.31% in Q1 2023, propelled by manufacturing, water supply, construction, trade, and entertainment sectors.

    Interestingly, capital importation into Nigeria saw a remarkable increase of 198.06% year on year, reaching $3.376billion in the first quarter of 2024, up from $1.13 billion in the same period of 2023. This also indicates a 210.16% quarter on quarter rise from $1.09 billion in the last quarter of 2023. This is the highest inflow recorded since the pandemic era ($5.85 billion in Q1 2020).

    “Portfolio Investment ranked highest with $2.08 billion, accounting for 61.48% of the total capital inflow during the period. Investors took advantage of the high-interest rate environment, with investment of $1.61 billion in money market instruments and $420.8 million in bonds became the attractive offer of Treasury Bills at coupons as high as 21.49% in March 2024.”

  • Still on the promises of 2024

    Still on the promises of 2024

    By Chiedu Uche Okoye

    SIR: The year, 2023, straddled between annus horribilis and annus mirabilis in that the troubles we encountered in the year did not consume us. And God, the Sovereign of our universe, spared our lives, which offered us the opportunity to continue striving to realize our goals both as individuals and as a country. 

    Today, Nigeria is hobbled by economic recession, infrastructural deficit, violent secessionist agitations, technological backwardness, dysfunctional educational system, and comatose healthcare delivery system. And the list of Nigeria’s problems has kept on burgeoning. The stark fact is that our past military rulers and successive political leaders had failed to leapfrog Nigeria to the acme of technological and economic advancement. 

    The implementation of the redesigning of the naira notes caused scarcity of naira notes, with its calamitous and devastating consequences for us. The change of the old naira notes, which was later stopped, increased the economic hardship of Nigerians. Nigerians survived that period of cash crunch, however. 

    As Nigerians heaved a sigh of relief, following the easing up of the scarcity of the old naira notes, the release of the 2023 presidential election result, which showed that Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the 2023 presidential election, raised political tension to some extent. Nonetheless, Bola Tinubu, who governed Lagos State for eight years and fought for the enthronement of democracy in Nigeria, is well-acquainted with Nigeria’s multifarious and hydra-headed problems. So he is in a pole position to tackle our country’s many different problems. 

    Read Also: FG partners China for new Steel Plant

    But has his withdrawal of oil subsidy shored up our economy? This is open to debate. Millions of unemployed university graduates still pound the pavement on a daily basis in search of the non-existent white and blue collar jobs. And millions of Nigerians, who live below the breadline, scavenge for leftovers. 

    And our security challenges have not abated. So it is imperative for the president to rejig our security architecture and think out new ways for tackling the prevailing monster of insecurity of lives and property in Nigeria. Recently, we’re treated to a macabre dance of death in Jos, Plateau State, which highlighted the recrudescence of violent killings in the state. And in the southeast, secessionist agitators still carry out homicidal deeds to strike fear into our minds. 

    But now, the year, 2023, with all its troubles has been relegated to the waste-bin of history. And the year, 2024, which had been chafing at the threshold of our cosmos, has poked its head in birth. The good thing about 2024 is that it is starting on a clean slate, hopefully without the baggage and negative influence of 2023. 

    So it behoves President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to do the right thing in order that history will be kind to him. Our depressed economy should be diversified away from crude-oil so as to create job opportunities for millions of unemployed Nigerians. He should address urgently and holistically, too, our problems of epileptic electricity supply and infrastructural rot, which hinder the rapid industrialization of Nigeria. 

    And he should address the monster of insecurity of lives and property, revamp our educational system and boost our moribund health sector. 

    President Tinubu knows that achieving national unity in Nigeria is a sine qua non for the rapid development of Nigeria. A country that is embroiled in political turmoil cannot achieve great economic and technological feats. The ball is now in his court; so, he should make hay while the sun shines. 

    • Chiedu Uche Okoye, Uruowulu-Obosi, Anambra State.

  • Expectations for 2024

    Expectations for 2024

    Year 2024 wombs the hopes, dreams, and aspirations of over 200 million people. The promises of better days, of silver linings, and of blue skies inspire hope, excite essence, rally confidence, and stroke anticipation. Parturition is expected. As it is with reproducing life, after months in the throes of contractions, life comes with a bubbling of joy and happiness.

    In 2024, the seeds of possibilities and of change that have been planted by the Tinubu administration will begin to gestate and sprout.

    This is not to aver that 2024 will be all plain sailing without its own share of vicissitudes, but seeds do begin to germinate, and for exotic trees that rule the forest, it takes the opportune time and latitude of nature for them to rise eclipsing the skies.

    2023 was a challenging year. The concerns, the disruptions, and the pangs of novelty were all palpable. But all is well that ends well. There was a good reason. It was not all for nothing. The scaffolding for a superstructure had to be forged.

    In 2024, Nigeria’s inflation rate is expected to dip, and the naira strengthened. According to Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) governor, Olayemi Cardoso: “The outlook for the domestic economy remains positive and expected to maintain the positive trajectory for 2024. Inflation pressures may persist in the short-term but is expected to decline in 2024. Exchange rate pressures are also expected to reduce significantly with the smooth functioning of foreign exchange market.”

    What does this mean for hard working citizens? It means a fairer and stable economic climate, salubrious for planning and earning.

    In the New Year, a slew of plans and programmes of the administration will kick in. Two of such programmes, among many other policy staples, are the Student Loan Initiative and the Consumer Credit Scheme. In June 2023, President Bola Tinubu assented to the Student Loan Bill in “fulfilment of one of his campaign promises to liberalise the funding of education’’.

    The bill, which was sponsored by the Speaker of the 9th House of Representatives, Rt. Hon Femi Gbajabiamila, aims to provide easy access to higher education for all Nigerians through interest-free loans.

    Some of the cardinal provisions of the Act are: (a) ‘All students seeking higher education in any public institution of higher learning in Nigeria shall have equal right to access the loans under this Act without any discrimination arising from gender, religion, tribe, position, or disability of any kind, and (b) ‘The loans referred to in this Act shall be granted to students only for the payment of tuition fees.’

    In November, President Tinubu announced during his presentation of the 2024 budget proposals that the Student Loan Scheme as well as other education-specific initiatives would become operational in 2024 to address the long-standing issues in the education sector, and to create a more sustainable model of funding for tertiary education. The Tinubu administration is prioritising education with N2.2 trillion proposed for the sector in the 2024 Appropriation Bill.

    A defining quotient of the administration is the preponderance of people-tailored policies and programmes. Nigerians are at the heart of the decision engineering of the leadership. They are the nucleus operating the cell of governance.

    The Consumer Credit Scheme is one of the programmes to expect in 2024. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), about 70 percent of bank account holders in Nigeria lack access to credit. The Presidential Council on Industrial Revitalisation recently set up a Technical Working Group to develop the requisite framework for enhancing consumer credit in Nigeria and to achieve the country’s targeted $1 trillion economy by 2026.

    Read Also: Akeredolu was a patriot, Mimiko mourns

    According to the Minister of Industry Trade and Investment, Doris Uzoka Anite, an efficient consumer credit system is a highly essential component of a burgeoning economy, as it works to improve market efficiency and fill in gaps in consumption and productivity by providing consumers immediate access to credit and allowing them to make purchases ahead of time.

    “Nigeria has numerous financial institutions and credit schemes, but many Nigerians still face substantial hurdles in accessing credit due to stringent eligibility criteria, high-interest rates, identity-related challenges, fragmented data sources for proof of livelihood and financial worth, a lack of awareness or understanding of credit processes, and inadequate credit available for lending,” she said.

    Reviewing the government’s strides in 2023 and prospectus for 2024 on Channels Television’s ‘News-Night’, Ajuri Ngelale, presidential spokesman, said of the Consumer Credit Scheme: ‘There are a few things that Nigerians can be hopeful about with respect to the turnaround that is happening in the country. This is a direct consequence of the patriotic resolve of our people to allow Mr President to take these tough decisions. First, the over N1 trillion that is saved from the removal of petrol subsidy is a part of financing that we are using to fund a student loan programme. Secondly, the savings from the removal of petrol subsidy will go towards the establishment of a consumer credit system, for the first time in our history. What Mr President is doing is not only mobilising government resources, but also working closely with the private sector to re-engineer our credit system.’

    Essentially, more people-focused programmes customised for Nigerians of variegated class are expected to come on stream in 2024. The Nigerian people are the predominant concern of the administration.

    •Nwabufo is Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Engagement.