Let us cut this country some slack at the beginning of what is likely to be another momentous year. Some congratulations are in order for this enchanting country and its tough, hardened habitants for bracing through the past year with all its internal challenges and emergent international contradictions. As the Yoruba wise-saying would have it, the head does not always wish to stand in structural alignment with the nape and the rest of the torso. Only the master surgeon of human physiognomy knows how this is stitched together. A more profane version of this proverb has it that the testicular pouch of a ram may swing wildly from side to side, but it never falls. The lizard that jumps from the top of the Iroko tree to the bare ground says that if no one will congratulate it, it must congratulate itself.
Nigerians are a prayerful lot. Only a people specially favoured by the Gods would choose to live so dangerously and permanently at the edge of the precipice and still survive to tell the story. But as Bernard Shaw, the Anglo-Irish wit, cynic and merciless purveyor of western rationalism would have it, we must beware of people whose Gods are in the sky. If we ask the old codger that he should leave us alone to our joyous proclivities, and that he has no right to legislate for other people, he would probably shoot back: I hate people being happy when they should be unhappy.
But even for a people who love pomp and celebration, the instant jubilation and mutual hand-pumping which ought to have accompanied Peter Obi’s decamping from the Labour Party was rather muted and underwhelming. No one should be surprised, coming at a point when Peter Obi’s movement has lost much of its capacity to surprise and the momentum it has garnered. While it slithered down the ladder of national esteem, the other side gathered speed and substantial grit. While it encouraged its trolls and sidekicks to excoriate and slander those who expressed views contrary to their siege mentality and claustrophobic sense of entitlement, the other side began chipping away at its ramparts until the empire of froth and hate caved in from its own internal contradictions.
Quality people deserted the Gadarene mob. A prime example is Peter Mbah, the energetic and hardworking governor of Enugu State, who has disavowed the possibility of joining Obi in his quixotic quest. Since politics is still a game of number and ethnic identity remains a stellar plank of national politics, it is hard to see how Peter Obi in the few months remaining can reassemble the old faithful even if he goes ahead to win the ADC presidential ticket. Some notable Nigerians who have worked for him at the highest level have sad tales to tell. It will not be fair to spill the beans at this point. Obi does not seem to have the allure and steely composure of a pan-Nigerian leader. A gifted but divisive and polarizing figure, politically, culturally and spiritually, it is so sad and alarming that the Nigerian ruling hegemons now view an Obi presidential ticket as the death knell of post-military politics in the country.
Rather than lose it all, they seem to have bought into a significant stake in the ruling party. One year may be a long spell in politics and in his desperation Obi may try to raise the ethnic and hate decibel; and the abiding economic misgivings hoping to catch out the ungainly and chaotic amalgam that is the APC as it tries to smother its internal contradictions and head off the possibility of a catastrophic implosion. In their brilliant conclusion to the book, The Gods that Failed, the authors noted that the final battle will not be between progressives and conservatives but between progressives and former progressives. That may well be the battle that is shaping up. The situation is so “overdetermined”, to use an advanced philosophical parlance, with so many contradictions jostling and contending for supremacy, that it is impossible for a political titan however talented to have a complete mastery of the situation.
Every new year carries a promise. But some carry an instruction. Twenty-twenty-six arrives not as a whisper but as a charge. It asks a simple question. What are you spreading?
Ideas spread. Attitudes spread. Courage spreads. Fear spreads. Excellence spreads. Neglect spreads. A nation does not change only through policies. It changes through what multiplies quietly in homes, classrooms, offices, streets, and minds.
This year calls us to spread what strengthens life.
Ancient wisdom captured this truth long before social media made virality fashionable. In the Bible’s book of Genesis, the language of growth recurs again and again. To spread abroad meant to increase in every direction, to grow until one becomes great, and to fill lands with what one carries. Those words did not speak of noise. They spoke of presence. They described a force that multiplies because it carries life.
That same idea appears in the parable of the leavened bread. A small element introduced into ordinary dough changes everything. Not through volume, but through influence. It cannot be seen, yet it reshapes the whole. This is not about religion. It is about patterns. What enters a system will reproduce itself.
This is the year to decide what enters you.
If resentment enters, resentment spreads. If discipline enters, discipline spreads. If honesty enters, honesty spreads. If excellence enters, excellence spreads.
Nigeria has suffered from the multiplication of wrong things. Over the past year, Nigerians have watched prices rise faster than wages, insecurity deepen in communities, and public trust erode across institutions. These developments did not happen overnight. They grew because certain habits, tolerances, and silences were allowed to spread. No nation collapses suddenly. It drifts when the wrong things multiply quietly. Corruption spreads because it is tolerated. Insecurity spreads because neglect spreads first. Hopelessness spreads because responsibility withdraws. But the same law that multiplies harm also multiplies healing.
Spreading is not noise. It is consistency. It is how character becomes culture.
This year asks you to spread courage in spaces that reward silence. Spread competence in systems that excuse mediocre performance. Spread truth where lies have settled comfortably. Spread dignity where people have been taught to accept less.
Spreading does not require a platform. It requires alignment. A teacher spreads order in a classroom. A trader spreads fairness at the market stall. A civil servant spreads accountability at a desk. A parent spreads values at the dinner table. A student spreads curiosity in a study group.
No one is too small to be a multiplier.
A single teacher who insists on punctuality in a rural classroom can change a generation’s sense of order. A shop owner who refuses to cheat can reset trust on an entire street. A parent who listens can interrupt cycles of fear in a home. These are not small acts. They are seeds.
The most dangerous belief is that impact requires influence. Influence follows integrity. Systems change when enough people change what they permit and what they practice.
We have entered a year that favours growth. But growth is neutral. It multiplies whatever it finds.
So choose deliberately.
Spread discipline instead of excuses. Spread learning instead of shortcuts. Spread responsibility instead of complaint. Spread peace instead of panic. Spread hope that is anchored in action, not slogans.
You may not control the nation. But you control what enters your life. And what enters you will spread.
This is not motivational language. It is social law.
Cultures rise because values multiply. Societies fall because negligence multiplies. The future of Nigeria will not be decided only by budgets and elections. It will be decided by what spreads in everyday conduct.
2026 is the year of spreading.
Spread what makes life stronger.
Spread what makes people better.
Spread what makes tomorrow safer than today.
Because whatever you release into your space will not stop with you.
And this year, it matters more than ever what you choose to multiply. May 2026 find your hands planting what strengthens life, and your days multiplying what will outlive you.
Mr Ukoh, an alumnus of the American University of Nigeria, Yola, and PhD student at Columbia University, writes
The eyes of the world are on Nigeria as the Africa’s most populous country warms up for 2027 electioneering. Political parties are preparing for congresses and conventions. Aspirants are returning to the drawing board. The National Assembly is amending the 1999 Constitution and reworking the Electoral Act. Deputy Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu, examines the power players, events and factors that will shape politics this year.
Political conflicts, expectedly, would characterise most parts of the year, being the period of nominations for the general election and a critical year preceding another handover. The contestation would cut across parties, tiers of government, districts, and constituencies.
Politicians would return to the drawing board to perfect strategies for scheming, horse trading and compromises. Intra-party rifts over shadow polls and inter-party crisis arising from hot competition and campaigns for power may unleash tension on the polity. There would, as usual, be resort to media war and propaganda.
Attention may wholly shift from governance to politicking. Resignations from the federal cabinet and state executive councils, party congresses, zoning or rotational agitations, and partisan endorsements would serve as a prelude to the titanic battle of choice, change or affirmation of leadership.
POWER PLAYERS
Bola Ahmed Tinubu
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is on the hot seat. But he is determined to make Nigeria work. He is living up to expectation by fulfilling many of his campaign promises. But, much still needs to be accomplished.
According to observers, he faces three challenges as he prepares for the third anniversary of his administration. These are economy, security and his quest for deserving continuity, which would gear up his rivals in other parties for determined or feeble resistance.
From major indications, the economy is stabilising, thanks to bold socio-economic reforms. But there are still complaints that macro-economic stability without corresponding improvement in the quality of life of the citizenry does not inspire hope. Government has reported a revenue surge, following the blockage of loopholes in the oil sector and the strengthening of revenue generating agencies.
On this front, the much-heralded tax reforms would come under further scrutiny. Last closed to controversy over the legislations following claims that what was gazetted was different from what the National Assembly passed. President Tinubu and his team insisted that this wasn’t the case and pressed on despite the spirited efforts of opposition figures to delegitimise the reforms. The world would be watching to see if the new legislations help the government achieve its pre-stated goals.
Economic experts have advised that the money should be channelled into productive activities and promotion of public welfare, particularly by the sub-national units. Improvement should reflect in job creation, infrastructural development, revival of the manufacturing sector, stable electricity, consistent investment flow, and conducive environment for business growth.
Security, as from this year, would be a major campaign issue. It is gratifying that apart from the military assistance and collaboration with the Unites States military, the Nigerian Armed Forces have doubled their efforts to rid the country of terror. Major breakthroughs are being recorded.
Many of the security challenges, as argued by observers, may be politically motivated. Despite the improvement much still needs to be accomplished, and with speed.
Nigerians expect the actualisation of state or multi-layer policing through constitutional amendment by the National Assembly. The lawmakers – many of who cannot even go to their towns, constituencies and districts out of fear of banditry, kidnapping and other forms of violence – should take up the challenge of constitution review with patriotism and passion in the new year.
Eyes will also be on the highly rated Minister of Defence, General Christopher Musa, to justify the huge confidence reposed in him by Nigerians across the six zones. He has been pulled back from retirement to take up the patriotic duty of liberating the North from terror and banditry. With the right military tactics, strategies, personnel, equipment and cooperation of all stakeholders, he should be able to make a difference, and without controversy over real or imagined ransom payment.
There is no doubt that President Tinubu’s re-election prospects would be significantly boosted by any success he is able to achieve in the war against insecurity. Aside collaboration with foreign powers, there is also effort being made to procure more armaments for the armed forces. Hopefully, these efforts would change narrative for the better in large parts of Northern Nigeria.
In his ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Tinubu, who has been endorsed for a second term, may be warming up for a coronation as candidate during the presidential convention. But the endorsement by the majority does not prevent interested stalwarts from throwing their hats into the ring. The only difference between APC and other parties is that presidential nomination squabble or tension in the ruling party would be so minimal while the opposition parties may still have to contend with peculiar internal contradictions, division and other inevitable partisan hurdles.
As a politician and active player, the president’s attention may be distracted by power play and scheming that’s bound to dominate 2026 as the country builds up to next year’s general election.
Atiku Abubakar and ADC
At almost 80, the lion is still roaring, but there is no prey in sight to devour. For the old political warhorse, 2026 is critical to a long standing ambition to rule Nigeria, an aspiration he developed 33 years ago.
On six occasions – 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2019 and 2023, the crown eluded him, owing to a combination of factors, including wrong timing, bad strategy, impatience, miscalculation, inconsistency, zoning and diminishing public affection for his brand. This has cast doubt on his pedigree as a learner at the feet of the great Tafida Katsina, General Shehu Yar’Adua, founder of Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM).
Yet, Atiku can only be ignored to the peril of his opponents in contemporary Nigerian politics. The former vice president came second in the 2023 elections with over seven million votes. He is undaunted and fired by courage. But his platform is now somehow defective, less formidable and fast regressing into a status of mere social club of old Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) comrades.
His exit from PDP, which he co-founded in 1998/99, to the little known African Democratic Congress (ADC), which affirmed the split in the PDP, was a turning point in his political career. No governor defected along with him; not even the governor of his native Adamawa State, Ahmadu Fintiri.
ADC is not waxing stronger, despite the bravado and boastings by the gerontocrats around Atiku, who have lost effective mobilisation prowess in their states. It is not breaking new grounds; it is not making in-roads into the South, Northwest and North-Central.
Also, the proposed coalition has not seen the light of the day. There is deep-seated friction among the coalition partners neck-deep in discussions on the platform of fragile parties.
Why the coalition is troubled is that those around the former VP convey the impression that there is a predetermined agenda to make Atiku its presidential candidate.
The activities of the party are not held at its secretariat. ADC holds court in the Atiku campaign office in Abuja.
Zoning is not an issue, and whether there should be power rotation between the North and South is not the concern of those now taking refuge in ADC. If the presidential bid of Atiku collapses, the party goes with it.
In short, the coalition or alliance isn’t gathering traction because there was no agreement on its leadership structure, philosophy, focus, and candidate. Its goal of removing Tinubu as president is restrictive. There is even quarrel among Southwest, Southeast and South-South members about the choice of presidential running mate ahead of the convention.
Where is the coalition curator, Nasir El-Rufai, in all these coalition drive? How effective is regional bullying? Who are the new faces being attracted into the so-called movement? Why are governors, ex-governors and National Assembly members shunning the platform and gravitating to APC?
Former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, who has been part of the coalition talks, has finally joined ADC. Not all the chieftains of the crisis-ridden Labour Party (LP) defected along with him. Governor Alex Otti said he preferred to broker peace in the party instead of jumping ship.
Details of the agreement that motivated him to join the party are unknown. For now, the only implication of his defection is that the 2027 contest may be a three-horse race involving majorly President Tinubu of the ruling APC, and the candidates of PDP and ADC.
Peter Obi, symbol of the ‘Obedient Movement,’ is intensifying consultations on his presidential ambition, which collapsed in 2023, despite his over six million votes.
Factors that aided him then were ethnicity and religion, which were exploited to devastating effects. A serial defector, Obi would have defected to the ADC before now, but the potential offer of running mate to Atiku was not encouraging to his group, which hibernated in the crisis-ridden LP. It is confounding that a politician who cannot resolve the LP logjam and unite the Julius Abure and Nenadi-Usman factions is vying for president of the most populous and heterogeneous country in Africa.
Unless Atiku declines to contest, which is a remote possibility, Obi’s best bet is LP, despite the polarisation and diminishing appeal of a third force. But his ditching the platform for ADC suggests that he no longer sees it as a viable vehicle to actualise his ambition.
If Atiku contests, it may seal Obi’s chances of getting the ticket. There are strong suggestions that he may have settled for the lesser option of running as Atiku’s number two. That prospect is likely to polarise his base. Already, the likes of Professor Pat Utomi have vowed to withdraw support if the former Anambra governor accepts the undercard option.
Obi is a critic without facts, a champion of geographical expression, a beneficiary of politico-religious manipulation and an inconsistent contestant – always eager to lean on a borrowed platform, but lacking the leadership skills required for party nurturing, crisis-resolution, reconciliation, cohesion and harmony.
Still, he remains visible by the grace of his internet warriors who may not be able to convert propaganda to votes. How he will upstage Atiku in ADC is left to be seen.
Rabiu Kwankwaso
A lone ranger, the eminent politician remains an idol in Kano, where his party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), holds sway.
But recently his Kwakwanshiya group has been decimated. APC leaders, including Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau and former national chairman Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, are working hard to pull the rug from off his feet. Some observers, however, don’t believe that this onslaught heralds Kwakwanso’s displacement as a factor in Kano.
Also, the lone NNPP governor of Kano, Abba Yusuf, has opened talks with the APC on possible defection. Throughout the last week events leading to his decamping have been building up. Matters came to a head with a Kano State High Court court affirming the suspension of Kwankwaso ally, Hashimu Suleiman-Dungurawa, as Kano NNPP state chairman.
In his place Hon. Abdullahi Zubairu Abiya, favoured by those loyal to Governor Yusuf, was confirmed Acting State Chairman. In reaction the National Working Committee (NWC) of the party dissolved ward, Local Government and state executive committees across the state. All these underscore the cracks in the party.
APC and ADC are making gestures to the NNPP leader for collaboration. So far, there has been no convincing response. But predictably, Kwankwaso will not be off the radar during the electioneering.
The PDP factions
The PDP is currently down. Its two factions, led by Tanimu Turaki (SAN) and Nyesom Wike/Sam Anyanwu, are in court waging a supremacy war. The gladiators in rival camps are flexing muscles.
The main opposition party has been in turmoil since the 2022 presidential convention. Its leadership has been a subject of dispute. But with four loyal governors – Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara) and Seyi Makinde (Oyo), PDP is still stronger than the Alliance for Democracy (AD) of old which went with the wind of the Afenifere crisis. Makinde is said to be eyeing its presidential ticket.
The outcome of the litigation over the party leadership will show the way forward for the PDP ahead of the electioneering. The prospects don’t look good. The Bala Mohammed-Makinde wing of party defied two clear judgments to hold its Ibadan convention which threw up the disputed Turaki leadership.
That legal roadblock recently forced the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to expressly state it doesn’t recognise the outcome of the convention held in the Oyo State capital.
Those legal woes are also blamed for the mass defection of the party’s governors to APC in recent times out of fear that they may not have a platform to prosecute their re-election.
Most observers argue that unless calmer heads within the party are able to unite all stakeholders around the caretaker leadership proposal, PDP would still be in legal coma when voters go to the polls in March next year.
Nyesom Wike and the Rivers factors
Love him or hate him, the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike, has become a political factor no one can ignore. His bitter fight with Atiku over the 2023 PDP presidential ticket snowballed into the mutually assured destruction that has brought the main opposition party to its knees. While the former fled to a platform where his word would be law, Wike remains in PDP fighting a rearguard battle for control.
Having fallen out with the Atiku wing of the party, the former Rivers State governor’s embrace of Tinubu’s presidential was a masterstroke that delivered his state’s strategic votes to APC. Ever since, the incumbent president has held him close – no doubt aware of his political value.
This year would see the political collaboration between the two men continue despite the differences Wike has with his erstwhile godson, Governor Siminalayi Fubara.
The minister is currently executing an interesting political manoeuvre that sees him exercising influence in Rivers APC and PDP. He openly declared last month that the structures of the two parties had coalesced into one to further the reelection bid of President Tinubu.
It’s a different matter entirely when it comes to Fubara’s second term ambition. Despite the governor’s defection to the APC, many observers say a scenario similar to that which played out in Lagos State, where former Governor Akinwumi Ambode was denied a return ticket, could play out in Rivers. In fact, the peace deal which Fubara signed to secure calm in his domain may well be the noose currently hanging around his neck.
But more than anything, his relationship with Wike is clearly irretrievably broken. So, in the coming months, expect more war songs and jibes like ‘Dey your dey, make I dey my dey,’ ‘As e dey pain dem, e dey sweet us’, followed by the most comic of dance steps. Rivers State politics is set to serve up the most entertaining drama in the run up to 2027.
INEC, by-elections and reforms
The Chairman of INEC, Prof. Ojo Amupitan (SAN), would have an opportunity to prove his mettle as an umpire.
He has two senatorial by-elections to conduct in Ondo South, where Senator Jimoh Ibrahim is vacating his seat to take up an ambassadorial appointment, and Delta North, where a vacancy now exists, following the death of Senator Peter Nwaoboshi.
Then, Ekiti and Osun governorship polls will follow. What Nigerians expect from Amupitan is the sustenance of the reforms initiated by his precedessor, Prof. Yakubu Mahmood, in his bid to foster transparency and accountability. The greatest expectation is the electronic uploading, display and transmission of results.
INEC will be rightly guided by the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and the Electoral Act.
Currently, 18 political parties are on its register. In September last year, 14 associations that applied for registration were shortlisted for vetting. The commission would have to take a final decision on their qualification for registration.
A source said some prominent northerners are behind one of the associations. They look forward to the registration which will provide an opportunity for a platform outside PDP, ADC, NNPP and LP to challenge the ruling APC in 2027.
INEC will commence the implementation of the electioneering schedule through its observation of the party congresses and convention. APC is likely to hold its national convention in March.
Ekiti election
Ekiti is warming up for an off-season governorship election. The candidate to beat is Governor Biodun Oyebanji of APC, who is seeking re-election. The poll would be a referendum on his performance as governor. While Oyebanji would be highlighting his achievements during the campaigns, other flagbearers – Ambassador Dare Bejide of ADC and Dr. Wole Oluyede of PDP – would be soliciting for votes based on their campaign promises.
Oluyede’s prospects are, however, uncerstain given that his name was missing from the provisional list of candidates released by INEC. It was a fallout of the PDP leadership crisis. INEC has refused to recognise the two factions locked in supremacy battle.
There are 16 local governments in Ekiti. They are run by APC chieftains. The members of the House of Assembly and Representatives, and three senators also belong to the ruling party.
Apart from the four predecessors – Niyi Adebayo, Ayo Fayose, Segun Oni and Kayode Fayemi – who are rooting for Oyebanji, many prominent indigenes, traditional rulers, religious leaders, women and youth groups have endorsed him for a second term.
But there are also those against him in the party over the outcome of the primary that produced him as standard bearer. These are the supporters of Kayode Ojo, an engineer from Ikoro-Ekiti and University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) Pro-chancellor, who are not happy about his disqualification, based on party guidelines.
Without them, Oyebanji will win. But the onus is on the party leadership to reconcile the aggrieved elements with the fold. However, no election can be a walk over. Over-confidence should be avoided. The ruling party cannot afford to sleep on guard.
Certain elements in Ekiti are peddling falsehood about zoning. This is not a factor in the state. The state was divided into three senatorial districts for political expediency. From the days of Pelupelu, Ekiti has been one indivisible zone.
Osun poll
This exercise will generate excitment in the Southwest and beyond. Three candidates – Dancing Governor Ademola Adeleke of Accord Party (AP), Bola Oyebamiji of APC and Najeem Salam of ADC will clash during in a titanic battle for the soul of the State of Living Springs.
The three of them once belonged to APC. Adeleke, son of Senator Ayoola Adeleke, is younger brother of the grassroots politician, Senator Isiaka Serubawon Adeleke. He succeeded him in the Senate after his demise.
Oyebamiji was a commissioner under former Governor Gboyega Oyetola when Salam was Speaker of the House of Assembly.
Zoning is a settled matter. The trio are from Osun West Senatorial District to which the tickets were unofficially zoned. Their running mates, who would be announced soon, would come from either Osun Central or Ife/Ijesa axis.
Adeleke, a populist governor and entertainer, was running from pillar to post after his original party, PDP, ran into trouble. Although a loyal party member, he had to defect to Accord to avoid uncertainties. The elite of Osun believe that his performing is not impressive. But he is popular among the masses who love his unconventional ways.
Adeleke will lean on the wealth of his illustrious family and the support of the distressed PDP chapter during the poll. The three PDP senators have vowed to support the President’s second term ambition. They are likely to extend the same gesture to the APC governorship candidate.
The governor has promised to mobilise for President Tinubu’s re-election. But the president’s party is at loggerheads with him. He faces a dilemma.
The most experienced and prepared candidate is Oyebamiji, former Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of the National Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), Lokoja. The people of Osun take him serious because he has no baggage. He is competent, resourceful and highly knowledgeable about state finance and financial engineering. However, there is need for deeper reconciliation to halt post-primary crisis arising from the consensus option. While real opponents pose threats, internal opposition can undermine strategies for victory.
ADC is seriously mobilising in Osun. The mobilisation has kept the national secretary, Chief Rauf Aregbesola, busy. But, there is a crack in the chapter. The supporters of Moshood Adeoti were dazed that the leader could dump the deputy leader for the former Speaker.
Analysts have predicted a stiff contest in Osun as former colleagues in the same party clash because of political differences.
All in all, 2026 promises to be an exciting year where some individuals would rise politically and others would consolidate their positions. But it could also presage the retirement of some old warhorses who have dominated the power space in the last three to four decades.
