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Tag: 2027

  • 2027: Different strokes

    2027: Different strokes

    Different folks, different strokes, goes that rhyming, still rather jaded cliche.  But it is as sharp as any to paint the government/opposition contrast towards 2027.

    The one reeled out stats to prove potent antidote is here to fix endemic problems.  The other serenade the economic doom, as treasured electoral tool. 

    A soapy serenata of doom and gloom is, after all, much easier than rigorous policy alternatives: to gyp the naive, rile the angry and push the pressured!

    How’re they so blest, you’d say!  Trouble, though: the situation is dynamic.  What if the government’s stats bloom into a pleasant reality? Checkmate opposition? Ha!

    Still, before conking the opposition tactics — or none — perhaps the government too, as opposition, would have trodden that same cynical path!

    Remember how the Lai Mohammed ACN, and later, APC formidable machine sent the Jonathan (dis)order running helter-skelter, until it electorally ran it out of town in 2015?

    Different folks, different strokes!

    Still, given the impressive stats President Bola Tinubu reeled out in his October 1 broadcast, there seems a clear difference between the Jonathan plumbing; and the sense of a new rise — with very verifiable landmarks — which the speech presented.

    True, the president sold a dummy, which only the alert could have beaten: that bit about Nigeria having, in 1960, 120 secondary schools to a pupil population of 130, 000; aside only two tertiary institutions: the Yaba College of Technology, Lagos, and the University of Ibadan. 

    Sixty-five years later: a virtual, if welcome, explosion: 274 universities, public and private, 183 polytechnics, 236 colleges of education, 23, 000 secondary schools. 

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    But what about the parallel explosion in population: 45 million (1960) to an estimated 237.5 million (2025)? 

    Leaving out the youth population now clanging for school space kills any logical analogy between now and 65 years ago.  With that clear gap — deliberate or coincident? — we can’t say whether educational access is better today than in 1960.

    But beyond that flabbiness, most others stats are tight.  They indeed give cause for hope — not happenstance hope, but hope that logically crowns gruelling, hard work.

    Indeed, Premium Times just ran a fact-check through the president’s claims; and the nine were deemed true. 

    That second-quarter 2025 posted a 4.23% growth (against IMF’s projection of 3.4%), the highest in four years; that inflation, at 20.12% in August, has been the lowest in three years; that Nigeria’s foreign reserves, at US$ 42.03 billion, are the highest in six years: since 2019; that tax-to-GDP ratio has risen from less than 10% in 2023 to 13.5% in just over two years.

    The remaining claims: aside surplus in five consecutive trade quarters grossing N7.46 trillion by Q2 2025, manufactured exports from Nigeria soared by 173%; crude oil production is up: from one million in 2023 to 1.68 million barrels-a-day in 2025; a solid mineral boom: coal mining leaping from -22% to 57.5%; better sovereign credit profile by global rating agencies; the CBN cut interest rate, if marginally, for the first time since 2020.

    No one — so far — has fact-checked the president’s claim that rail infrastructure has grown by 40% and water transportation by 27%.  But unlike pre-2015 when hardcore infrastructure were rare, rail and big road legacy projects are common fare.

    The president said the 284-km Kano-Katsina-Moradi standard gauge rail was nearing completion.  That done, the next step is to link Ibadan with Abuja, and modern rail, linking coastal Lagos-Ibadan-Abuja-Kaduna-Kano-Katsina-Maradi would be a reality!

    That itself would be the deepest penetration of modernized rail since 1960.  With that should come big import freight from Lagos to Nigeria’s landlocked neighbours: Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, etc. 

    That trade boon should translate into rail, as a transport sub-sector, contributing more to GDP.  The sturdier the GDP, the doughtier the local economy, the stronger the Naira, the lower the inflation, the higher the standard of living and the lower the poverty rate.

    These indices, other things being equal, signify an economy on the rebound.  In any case, that’s the picture the ruling party is pushing.

    But the opposition — in full panic mode or wilful delusion? — would rather luxuriate in the current blight; and wish it continued, at least for their 2027 electoral gain.  That, wholesale, appears their strategy so far.

    Take Peter Obi, the most prominent pretender, among the lot, to subversive data.  Obi merrily hanged himself with own words, that same noose he confected for others.

    Hear him: “By the end of 2007, our total debt was about N2.5 trillion, only 10% of GDP, after President Obasanjo’s government secured debt forgiveness of over US$ 30 billion.  By 2014,” he added, “Nigeria had become Africa’s largest economy and was primed to achieve middle-income status.”

    Yet, by 2015 — with “Africa’s largest economy”: by re-basing, that statistical wonder, by the way! — 12 states, out of Nigeria’s 36, could not pay salaries!  It’s yet another manifestation of Obi’s notorious plastic approach to issues!

    But the story here is not even that statistical plasticity.  It’s Obi identifying with the Obasanjo ancien regime, routed under fall guy Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, as his prescribed future paradise! 

    The Obasanjo-era “reforms” posted dire infrastructural deficits.  One reason: the US$ 12 billion, paid the Paris Club to cancel Nigeria’s US$ 31 billion debt could have been invested in infrastructure, which should have spurred the economy — a terrible opportunity cost. But post-2015 reforms are changing that infrastructure decay. 

    If you doubt, check out — all post-2015 — the Lagos-Ibadan standard-gauge rail and revamped expressway; and the Second Niger Bridge, into Obi’s South East homeland, which never leapt off campaign videos, all through the PDP years!  Without roaring infrastructure, how can you grow an economy?

    Beyond cynically skewing statistics to game the unwary; and whining over challenges instead of providing clear solutions, Obi’s thinking is bland on almost all scores!

    Atiku Abubakar?  The 2023 self-proclaimed “northern” candidate, strutting in glorious ordinariness which he mistakes for political exceptionalism, is busy denying non-issues instead sharing fresh ideas — which he never had — with the polity.

    The other day, he would protect Yoruba interests as president.  The next, he would stand down for a younger candidate!  When comes the next gush of denials?  Gosh!

    Former President Jonathan?  The good riddance to the PDP-era bad rubbish, with his electoral spanking of 2015, is busy shopping for a sure ticket, from either PDP or its clone, ADC, to re-contest in 2027!  What grand achievement would he campaign on?

    To be sure, the Tinubu order would face close and tight scrutiny on how harsh neo-liberal tactics have enhanced its “progressive” essence.  But, from verifiable stats that the president just rolled out, its harsh surgery appears restoring the patient.  With far lower food and transport inflation, it might even be singing a redemption song!

    That seems more solid than self-professed people’s friends, but really fiends, praying — and fasting! — that hardship endures, for them to stand any electoral chance! 

    What satanic — and panic-prone — strategy!

  • Dousing the tension ahead of 2027

    Dousing the tension ahead of 2027

    • By Mukhtar Ya’u Madobi

    In less than two years, Nigerians will once again throng polling units nationwide to elect leaders who will steer the country’s affairs for another four years, beginning in 2027. Yet, as the nation inches toward this crucial general election, it stands precariously balanced between the promise of democratic consolidation and the threat of descending into political chaos.

    The lessons of our electoral history are vivid and sobering. From the post-election violence of 2011, which claimed countless innocent lives, to the judicial controversies of 2023 that reaffirmed the victory of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Nigeria’s democratic journey has been repeatedly tested. These experiences have left deep political and social scars — and the warning signs for 2027 are already flashing in alarming red. The political temperature is steadily rising.

    Across the country, public discourse is becoming increasingly toxic, with inflammatory rhetoric dominating campaign platforms. Politicians, in their desperate bids for relevance and support, lean heavily on ethnic, religious, and regional sentiments to rally followers.

    While such tactics energise partisan bases, they dangerously deepen national divisions at a time when Nigeria desperately needs unity, tolerance, and mutual understanding. Such polarisation becomes even more perilous when layered over the harsh realities of everyday life.

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    Unemployment remains painfully high, inflation continues to erode purchasing power, and poverty levels are worsening. For millions of frustrated youths, this economic despair makes them vulnerable to political manipulation — and for desperate politicians, they are an easily accessible pool for recruitment into violent thuggery.

    The danger is compounded by Nigeria’s fragile security landscape. The Northeast still battles insurgency, the Northwest plagued by banditry, IPOB-linked unrest persists in the Southeast, and the Middle Belt continues to witness deadly farmer-herder clashes.

    Each flashpoint presents an opportunity for political actors to exploit tensions for electoral gain. For years, terrorists, insurgents, and other non-state actors have capitalised on insecurity and youth vulnerability to radicalise and recruit them into criminal networks — an asymmetric challenge that continues to overstretch security agencies and undermine stability.

    Adding fuel to the fire is the proliferation of small arms and light weapons. Nigeria’s porous borders have allowed a steady influx of weapons from conflict zones in the Sahel and North Africa. According to the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa, over 500 million illicit small arms circulate in West Africa, with Nigeria shockingly harbouring about 40 per cent of them.

    These weapons empower bandits, ethnic militias, and terrorists, turning political disputes into deadly confrontations. Another critical concern is declining public trust in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Many Nigerians perceive the electoral body as beholden to those in power, undermining its credibility. Even technological reforms such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) have not fully erased public scepticism. Far too many citizens believe elections are decided in courtrooms rather than at the ballot box, a perception that fuels apathy and could incite unrest.

    Compounding these threats is the toxic digital environment. While the internet and social media have created unprecedented avenues for civic engagement, they have also become breeding grounds for fake news, deepfake videos, and hate speech. In a recent case, an AI-generated video falsely portrayed Nigerian soldiers escorting cattle in Benue State, a fragile security zone. Thankfully, a PRNigeria fact-check report swiftly debunked the content. Still, the speed at which disinformation spreads means a single lie could ignite violence within minutes.

    Unfortunately, Nigeria’s early warning and rapid response systems remain weak, reactive, and often too slow to prevent predictable crises. Without proactive detection and coordinated intervention, electoral tensions could quickly escalate into national instability.

    The road to a peaceful 2027 election demands a whole-of-society approach. Security agencies, political leaders, religious authorities, community heads, civil society organisations, the media, and ordinary citizens must work hand in hand.

    Government must tackle the root causes of political violence by rolling out targeted economic relief and empowerment programmes, particularly for at-risk youth, to reduce their vulnerability to manipulation.

    INEC must be adequately funded, granted full operational independence, and backed by tougher laws against vote-buying, hate speech, and political thuggery. A nationwide peace and unity campaign, championed by influential figures across all divides, should be launched well before the polls to discourage divisive politics.

    Security agencies must take the lead with intelligence-driven policing, community surveillance, and swift neutralisation of threats. Coordination between the police, DSS, military, NSCDC, and local vigilantes should be seamless, with early mop-up of illegal arms and watertight protection of INEC staff, facilities, and election materials.

    The Office of the National Security Adviser (ONSA), under Malam Nuhu Ribadu, has a pivotal role to play, especially in coordination and regulation. Electoral offenders — whether politicians, thugs, or complicit officials — must face swift, visible, and uncompromising justice to send an unmistakable message that violence will not be tolerated.

    Ultimately, the responsibility for safeguarding Nigeria’s democracy rests with the people. Citizens, especially young Nigerians, must refuse to be used as pawns in political games. They must demand issue-based campaigns, fact-check information before sharing it online, and engage fully in the democratic process — from registration to peaceful voting — to ensure the will of the people prevails.

    The 2027 elections are not just another electoral cycle; they are a test of whether Nigeria can emerge stronger, more united, and more democratic in the face of growing internal and external pressures. The dangers are real, but so are the opportunities to avert them.

    Government, security agencies, and citizens must rise to the challenge — not as adversaries, but as co-stewards of Nigeria’s fragile democracy. The time to act is not in 2027. The time to act is now.

    •Madobi is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Crisis Communication. He writes via: ymukhtar944@gmail.com

  • Weak President, strong Governors-General, 2027 peace formula

    Weak President, strong Governors-General, 2027 peace formula

    I will call a spade a spade, and not tell you a  dog is a monkey… Nigeria’s major tribes and their traditional allies are warming up for what in 2027 may  become the country’s most dangerous general elections.As usual, the aim is to politically conquer the opponent tribe and its  allies, economically subdue them and territorially absorb them. If we are not careful, Nigeria may  go the way some  countries have gone whose form and content of politics were like ours. That is why this column, after traveling on memory lanes, would like to make widow’s mite contributions to  on-going reviews of the 1999 Constitution. Some of the suggestions are that

    • An office of Govenor-General be created in each of the six geo-political regions. In the First Republic, each of the three regions had a ceremonial Governor and an Executive Premier who  was in charge of Government business. The Office of Governor-General now proposed is an Executive Office.

    • Each geopolitical region become semi independent, controlling its resources,  paying tax on their exploitation and contributing money toward maintenance of the Federal Government

    •In other words, the Federal Government will be made financially dependent on the regions and  financially unpalatable for ethnic jingoists who have always sort to capture it  and terrorise and minimise other tribes with its abundant resources.

    • If the constitution favours these suggestions, and the table turns against Federal power in favour of Regional might, national political tensions may disappear and risk of another civil war  or a break up of the country may be reduced.

    Let us not deceive ourselves… no-one  can dissolve the tribes. We did not create ourselves ,our tribes, the Earth and the Universe. The  creative will of the Almighty Creator created them all  for a spiritual purpose. We  hear always that The Sower went to sow. What he sowed were human seed grains. Some fell by the way side, some among thorns, others on rocky land  and more, still, on fertile soil. We belong to whichever our tribes are because, in His Infinite Wisdom,  that is the right soil for our spiritual purpose. Our nature determined on which soil  we were sown. We were sown as spirit seed grains to sprout, germinate, flower and fruit, growing from subconscious existence to self consciousness and, finally, to human spirit beings, the state in  which we can return to Paradise!. As an aside, this is saying not everyone in outward human form is a human being . The human being is that person whose innermost kernel has involved from spirit seed germ into the human form.Thus, all tribes of humanity are in various stages of inner maturity and should not mix, otherwise, the wolves would live with the sheep, the ruffians with the cultured! I raised animals, but not

    rabbits and cats together. That was what Lord Lugard, as Governor-General in 1914, did with the unification of about 250 tribes in a geographic space his mistress called Nigeria!

    Everywhere on earth, the tribes are not meant to mix, although they may interact. However, against  the  creative will of The Almighty  Creator, the presumption of man  that he is wiser than God and Nature, and his greed for earthly possessions have  misled him  to believe he can create a hybrid nation of dis-similar   tribe into harmonious, tranquil  homogeneous nation. In Europe, one tribe fell upon another for its resources or to impose its economy and culture. After 30 years of blood birth, they signed  on October 24, 1648, the Treaty of Westphalia which recognised sovereignty and foreign trade. Even then, the dis-similar tribes not  co-habit under  pain in emergent-nation states? They sometimes   free themselves at great cost.  The Soviet Union disolved. Ukraine and Russia are still at war. The Irish Republican  Army ( IRA) terrorised the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland for some decades. Two times recently,  Scotland tried  but marginally  failed electorally to quit the union. Senegal and Gambia  quite SENEGAMBIA. The Sudan broke into two. India broke into  Pakistan (1948) Pakistan later into West Pakistan and   Bangladesh. Ethiopia broke into Eritrea and Tigris. Somalia fought a tribal genocidal war.On January 1, 1993, Czechoslovakia peacefully separated into Czech Republic now called ( Czechia)and Slovakia. Iron- fist ruler President Tito held disparate Czechoslovakia together for what seems like eternity.  On  May 4, 1980, he passed, and Yugoslavia errupted into several  ethnic wars which, between 1990 and 2000s, yieded the fellowing countries… Slovenia,Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,Serbia, Montenegro, North Mecedonia and Kosovo which broke from Serbia in 2008.  Nigeria  fought a tribal civil war between 1967 and 1970.

    What I am trying to say in calling a spade a spade, and in not disguising a dog as monkey, is that any country which is not composed  in accordance with the laws of Nature is a false entity and, like every falsehood in creation, is doomed to collapse unless it is adjusted to the unchanging WILL OF GOD.  One of the LAWS OF NATURE which teaches us of the WILL OF GOD constantly remains us that …BIRDS OF A FEATHER FLOCK TOGETHER. Spiritual student  and scholars of Mother Nature call it THE LAW OF ATTRACTION OF HOMOGENEOUS SPECIES.  This Law ensures that the cells of your skin are homgeneous and different to the homgeneous cells of your brain, tongue, eyes, and bones e.t.c.  In a woman, endometrial cell  which lines the uterus must not be found any way else in her  body or she would suffer from a terrible bleeding disease known as ENDOMETRIOSIS. In like manner, this is why transplanted organs are rejected by the host body.

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    2027 and beyond

    The 250 or more ethnic nationalities in Nigeria have been suffering in the hands of one another since 1914. They have fought a civil war. They have arrived at the point of distrusting one another and are approaching the threshold of hatred for one another. This was evidence in the 2023 General Elections, the dust and smoke of which the politicians have not allowed to settle  and are already dimming the 2027 General Elections, the aftermath of which no one can predict. It is in this regard that I make this column my window’s mite contributions towards on-going effort to give Nigeria a new Constitution.  I am persuaded that only observance of the Laws of Nature by the new Constitution can prevent a break off of the country in future. This observance  is about the structure of power and its location.

    Unfortunately, Lord Lugard in 1914  mixed the lions with the lambs.  We can change the structure without throwing the baby out with the bath water.  That is why I have suggested a regionalisation along the six geo-political zones as semi-dependent entities within the Nigerian Federation, each governed by a Governor-General who supritends governors in their Regions. These governors will no longer have direct access to the President as the Governors-General will be the interface between the Regions and that Office.

    Weak executive  President, strong Governors-General

    Thus,  I suggest drafters of the coming Constitution do away with a powerful Executive President,introduce a powerful Governor -General in each of the six geo-political  Regions, subordinate the governors  in each region to the executive  control of the respective Governor-General and make  local governments independent  of  governors. The constitution should make the presidency  less attractive, with its powers limited to only exclusive portfolios  such as Foreign Affairs, Currency, the Armed Forces, Customs, Immigration e.t.c. The  Presidency may be limited in the concurrent portfolios to only certain or minimum national standard every region is to achieve in such area as  education, health, housing, security, agriculture, sanitation e.t.c.

    The Governor- General should become the Chief Executive of a Region.  Governor in this Region  will report to him or her. The Governor- General and the Governors  will govern their Regions as an organic  unit of the Nigerian  Federation.  Each state will not be governed in isolation of the others,as is now done,  to encourage balanced development in the region. Politicians  in search of eldorado at the Federal level and who become demoralised and dangerous to the polity when they derail  may find the music can still play for them in their own Region.

    Each region will have  absolute control over its resources and pay tax to the Federal Government in respect of their exploitation. Each of the  six regions is big enough to be a country. Israel is only 8.3 million population, United Arab Emirates 9.3 million, Ukraine 44 million. Compare them with the following states in Nigeria which belong to different Region, each of which has no fewer than five or six states…Lagos State… 21.8 million,  Kano State… 16 million. Kaduna State… 13 million, Akwa Ibom State… 4 million, Kastina State… 8 million and Sokoto State.. 4 million. Thus, each region can stand better on its own than it now does if it is powered from within itself as an organic entity than when it is indulged, pampered or divided and ruled from outside of itself. It should , therefore, fend for itself and be self governing except in subjects exclusive  to the Federal Government. This should liberate the creative energy within the region and protect it against  suffocating indulgence of Federal  pampering or vicissitudes which, in many cases, has been spoon-feeding PAUL from resources stolen  from Peter Political tension will be  defused in the Federal corridors of power.

    The Governor-General may appoint half of the carbinet members of each state, while the Governor will appoint the other. The House of Assembly will confirm them. The governor of a state would be like the Deputy Governor-General in that state, implementing the regions programmes as they concern his or state. For example,  Lagos State in the South-West Region is known for developing rail transportation.  The Governor-General of the South -West Region, in agreement with Governors of the Region, may develop a rail transportation programme for the entire region which all the governors must fund. If there are states which cannot finance their share of the project, and Lagos State can take it up, Lagos State can own that share of the project, earn from it and pay rent on the land over which the rail tracks are lain. Already, this type of cooperation is happening underground. Lagos State is short of land for Agriculture, but it  has money for huge plantation farms which it is letting from other states on co-operative farming agreement. The Governor-General and the Governors of  a region, working together, will produce yearly  budget of the region and implement it. There will be other fine details of the law which cannot be addressed but through collective wisdom of the Constitution makers.

    The foregoing  ideas came to me in the light of firestorms which outcome of  the 2023 General Elections have been unable to consume and which have continued to wax stronger in readiness for the 2027 General Elections. My thoughts took me down memory lanes. The tribes clashed. The military sent the politicians away. The military convulsed and convulsed until a terrible civil war came upon the land after terrible tribal killings in the North.  The military reluctantly  gave way after the war, only to return to power and to again retreat from it. Each time they  had returned, their excuse had been that the politicians overheated the political  temperature, mismanaged the country, created poverty and caused bigger tribal divisions.

    FORMS change, but their contents hardly do. The Nigerian form has changed several times, but has the content on each changed?

    The Hausa- Fulani tribe  was trying to politically conquer other tribes, for self preservation. The Yorubas arguably the most advanced  by Western education standards was building an import- substitution economy which did not tolerate Hausa-Fulani Feudalism and mediocrity. The Ibos were boisterous in trade and commerce and most inclined toward an import economy. The Hausa-Fulani held the government to control the Yorubas and the Ibos.To dislodge the Hausa-Fulani from power, and Ibo led military coup backed by some Yoruba officers took place on January 16, 1966. Their plan was to kill  national politicians of all tribes and take over power to modernise the country and economy. Unfortunately, Ibo politicians were spared. The Hausa-Fulani retaliated with genocidal Ibo killings in the North. Ibos fled homeward  and declared a country, BIAFRA, independent of Nigeria.  A civil war followed in which hundreds of thousands of soldiers died on both sides. Ibos lost the war through tactical military errors aimed at territorial expansion into Yorubaland. In the Nigeria politics of today heading toward 2027, nothing has changed.The Ibos are bitter that they have not been given the opportunity for one of them to become EXECUTIVE PRESIDENT. That was their goal in the 1966 coup. They may have gotten a way with but for their rejoicing  over the killing of  Hausa-Fulani leader Ahmadu Bello while Ibo leaders were walking free and tall. Nothing has changed. While the Hausa-Fulani are grieving over the sudden death of Mohammadu Buhari, their leader in recent years,  and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a Yoruba, has been busy beautifying him, many Ibo commentaries on  traditional and social  media have been denigrating the departed. Will the Hausa-Fulani make an Ibo President in such circumstances?  Rabiu Kwankwaso, from Kano, capital of Hausa land, and a politician less intolerant than of Ibo  vigour and potential  domination than the pacifist Buhari is making moves for an alliance before  2027 with President Tinubu, a Yoruba. This was after  overtures by Peter Obi, the most visible Ibo leader for now, failed to persuade Kwankwaso to be his  Vice Presidential running mate in the 2027 election. Any-one who watched the 2023 election  video interview of  Kashim Shettima, now Vice President, by Senator Ibikunle Amosu, former Governor of Ogun State and Buhari’s political disciple, may know where Kwankwaso’s gravitation towards Tinubu may led the North in the next election. Shettima said in that interview that the North preferred Kwankwaso to the politically pacifist Buhari. It was possible Buhari was harsh  on the  Ibos, forgetting he was their President as well, because they  massively rejected him in the 2023 polls.  If the Hausa-Fulani cannot trust the Ibos with power and they cannot trust the Yorubas as well, only goodness knows where the country is heading.  The Hausa-Fulani do not have the vigour and the business accumen of the Ibos in business and commerce, so their economy will be easily run-over. A Yoruba as President will not treat the Hausa-Fulani as sacred cows. He would try to be a President of all the tribes, as Tinubu is trying to do. Two years of his presidency are  already inconvincing the Hausa-Fulani   whose primary occupation is government and power over the national economy. The Yorubas want a free country where their intellectual prowess can flower. They and the Ibos have not been seeing eye to eye since Dr Nnamdi  Azikiwe betrayed their political trust and try to make the Ibos politically conquer them.  This story goes back to the days when Nigerians were trying to end British colonial  rule. The Yorubas were at the forefront of the struggle. Herbert Maculay, a Yoruba, formed the National Council of Nigerian Citizen and the Cameroons (NCNC). It took this political party on a nation wide tour, fell ill and died. The other Yorubas in the party invited  the Ghana-based Dr Azikiwe  to return home and lead the party because they consider him a good orator for the job. Dr Azikiwe took the job. Ibos flooded the NCNC. The party won the next elections in Yorubaland and in Ibo land and  the  Northern Peoples Congress ( NPC) won in the North. Rather than become Premier of the Ibo-dominated Eastern Region, Dr Azikiwe insisted  on becoming Premier of the Yoruba-dominated Western Region, a move which rejected Adeleke Adedoyin, a Yoruba, and would have made the Yorubas to replace British colonialism which they were fighting with Ibo colonialism.

    This tribal conflict persists till today with more ferociousness. The Ibos  will feel psychically vanquished if Peter Obi does not become President in 2027. The Hausa-Fulani may not tolerate another four  years Yoruba Presidency. Meanwhile, they have encouraged Sahel Fulani  migration into Nigeria to swell their population. They are in almost every forest, village, street corners in towns and cities. It is as though they are a standing army waiting for zero hour order. Even before Buhari left office, the Fulani pressed for a new national census.  He gave the money for it but couldn’t get it done. President Tinubu has been under pressure to blow the whistle. The Hausa- Fulani, most cunning tribe in Nigeria, are building up numerical superiority for 2027 elections. The Ibos believe in  herd instinct voting. The Yoruba voting population is depleted by Japa Sydrome and folks are pressing for overseas voting. Guns are everywhere in unauthorised hands. I will call a spade a spade…there is fire on the roof, and gas is licking everywhere indoor and outdoor!

    What can we do? My suggestion is that  we manage the fears of the tribes of conquest, domination and appropriation by other tribes  to reduce conflicts among them to  nonflammable  proportions.

  • Why 2031, not 2027, is the most consequential election for Nigerians

    Why 2031, not 2027, is the most consequential election for Nigerians

    By Opeoluwa Dapo-Thomas

    Caveat: When I write articles, I do so from three perspectives. One, as an economist, two, as a foreign investor, three, as someone with a deeper-than-average understanding of how government works — an understanding shaped by access to insider information, policy analysis, and years of studying both public records and behind-the-scenes governance.

    This vantage point gives me context that, frankly, most Nigerians don’t have. So while my views may sometimes challenge popular opinions, they are grounded in data, experience, and informed observation and devoid of the citizenry sentiments that shape today’s electoral choices.

    Nigerians love presidential elections, a little too much. Understandably so, given how personality-driven our politics is. The average Nigerian is more focused on individuals than systems, holding onto the belief that one man can emerge from a deeply flawed, regionally-rotating political structure and fix the country overnight.

    Even after decades of democracy and every past leader being demystified, we remain emotionally attached to the myth of “the one.” But before we look ahead, we must take stock of the present administration.

    The Tinubu Administration: A Mixed Performance So Far

    The current administration kicked off with two bold economic reforms: fuel subsidy removal and naira devaluation. These policies unlocked more naira for the federal and state governments, allowing states to reduce debts, increase wages, and, unfortunately, undertake white elephant projects (petition for states to stop building unviable airports, please). The policies also saved the country from financial implosion and default risk.

    Yes, revenue has improved. But Nigeria still faces persistent fiscal deficits, inflationary pressure, and a troubling lack of reliable data. The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) seems overwhelmed, especially post-rebasing. And without credible data, the much-anticipated foreign investments won’t fully materialize — no investor will deploy capital blindly.

    Meanwhile, the ruling elite are engaging in early politicking ahead of the polls, which means we should expect lethargy in governance in the coming months. For example, the Minister of Power is talking about reconciling APC members ahead of Oyo 2027, so it’s safe to say he’s interested in another type of “Power” that doesn’t involve electricity. The best form of politics right now, as the country is facing one of its worst economic crises, is by solving problems and explaining to Nigerians why you need time, because development does require time. Alleviating public suffering buys goodwill ahead of the 2027 elections.

    Credit Where It’s Due

    To be fair, there are notable achievements at the macro level: Tax reform has progressed, Nigeria attracted billions of dollars in oil and gas investments, the debt servicing to revenue ratio has improved, State debts are reducing, local government autonomy is being pursued with renewed vigour — a critical step for grassroots development. Credit access is improving through the Consumer Credit Corporation. Credit will unlock productivity as demand will increase. Student loans are being administered well, and the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road, if completed, may become the most economically impactful project in modern Nigerian history. We now have a Central Bank that knows its mandate. We now have an FX market that’s much more liquid, for foreign investors can be assured of capital repatriation. Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P Global have upgraded Nigeria’s rating to a much more stable outlook. These upgrades suggest a positive trend in Nigeria’s creditworthiness, driven by ongoing economic and fiscal reforms implemented by the government.

    What Still Needs Work

    But a lot remains unresolved: What’s the roadmap for power reform? We need to address metering, implement cost-reflective tariffs, and clear debts owed to GENCOs and DISCOs. Should the government form another “Taiwo Oyedele-style” expert committee for the power sector? Where is the strategy for agriculture and food security? Why is the country still experiencing post-harvest losses in the region of N3.5 trillion annually, which is about 40% of Nigeria’s annual food production? These issues must be tackled in this administration to improve the quality of life for Nigerians and to lay the groundwork for real economic progress.

    Why 2031, Not 2027 -Will Be the Economic Turning Point

    All the reforms by the Obasanjo government began reflecting during Yar’Adua’s administration

    Judging from antecedents, President Tinubu has the political capital and track record to solve these problems. There will be cabinet rejigs in his second term since there is no need to be worried about re-election anymore. His second term (if re-elected) will free him from electoral distractions, allowing him to push through the tough, foundational reforms that Nigeria desperately needs. It’s easier to push for state police and implementation of LG autonomy when you don’t have elections to worry about. The United Kingdom’s Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, at the moment, is offering concessions to Labour MPs amid a major rebellion over his government’s planned welfare cuts. Reforms are not easy to pull through when you are shackled with political landmines in the National Assembly.

    This current administration needs time. Some have asked where the FDIs are now since the FX market is now “liquid”. Many assume that simply liberalizing the FX market will immediately unlock FDI inflows, but in reality, attracting meaningful foreign investment is a multi-year process that typically takes 3 to 7 years, depending on political will, macroeconomic stability, and institutional strength. The journey begins with identifying and prioritizing strategic sectors such as energy, agriculture, ICT, and manufacturing, while clearly defining Nigeria’s unique value proposition. This must be followed by revising investment laws covering foreign ownership, profit repatriation, and dispute resolution, then digitizing business registration, permits, and licensing systems to reduce red tape. Building the physical and regulatory infrastructure to support investment, offering targeted incentives like tax holidays or accelerated depreciation, and actively engaging in global investment forums (e.g., Davos, Africa Investment Forum) are also critical. Once investors show interest, which can take time because of the investor’s internal due diligence, governments must support them with land access, permits, and local partnerships, while fostering joint ventures and local supply chain linkages. Iteration is key; policies must be adapted as challenges arise. The real question, then, is: how do you compress this entire sequence into a single term in office?

    The Coalition…

    Elections offer citizens a platform to evaluate the performance of the incumbent and express disapproval by voting for an alternative. However, the flaw in this system is that while the current administration may have scored a 6 out of 10, there’s no guarantee that the next candidate will perform any better. The current opposition coalition, which happens to be a mix of ex-allies of the President and perpetual defectors, appears more interested in taking power than presenting credible policy alternatives. They lack a coherent economic plan and function more like a reactionary force than a reform-driven movement.

    Governments born from power grabs often serve up drab governance once in office. They squabble over every appointment because of the almighty “Federal quota” and political compensation. They dilute their policy agendas in the name of compromise and waste time fighting within the National Assembly. We saw it under Buhari and Saraki (2015–2019). The result is stagnation. When they finally settle, they start preparing for re-election (ignore all that one-term promise). If the opposition wants to be taken seriously, they must build an economic think tank, propose viable alternatives, and prepare for 2031, not 2027. They can use 2027 to test their new party’s resolve.

    The Northern Factor

    It is widely expected that 2031 will be the North’s turn again. But it’s fair to ask: how has the North historically performed economically when in power? Yar’Adua (2007–2010) reversed Obasanjo’s progressive reforms: lowered VAT from 10% to 5%, cancelled the sale of the Port Harcourt refinery, and rolled back key deregulations. Buhari (2015–2023) resisted subsidy removal and failed to reform the forex market, secure pipelines, or deliver on oil and gas reform. Border closures triggered food inflation.

    Both leaders, though well-meaning, leaned toward populist, socialist-style governance. In truth, Nigerians are generally socialist in thinking, and Northerners even more so. Their policies, though people-centric, often failed to catalyze wealth creation and growth.

    This is not a bug; it’s a feature. Which is why 2031 is pivotal: not just as a change in leadership but as a moment to determine whether we prioritize growth over sentiment, and proper management and multiplication of our paltry resources. The era of $100 oil prices, which the PDP government once enjoyed, is now a thing of the past. The United States, which once relied on Nigeria for 10% of its oil imports, has not only stopped buying our crude but has also become the world’s largest oil producer. This surge in U.S. output has flooded the global supply market, making it harder for geopolitical tensions to push prices into the three-digit range. Balancing our budgets now requires serious financial engineering that would combine legislative collaboration and executive coordination with states to achieve. The electoral choice in 2031 has to be a market-driven capitalist who has the political capital to pull it through. Most of today’s reforms would start yielding dividends in the long run.

    Our leaders now have to think outside the box. How do we leverage oil as working capital to support other sectoral developments? How do they grow the economy to a 1 or 2 trillion dollar economy? Leaders have to be pro-market. Nigeria needs a leader who will create economic systems that will supersede them.

    Final Word

    The 2031 elections will determine whether Nigeria consolidates the hard reforms initiated now, or resets back to populism, patronage, and power-for-power’s sake politics. It will be the real test of whether Nigeria wants to build institutions, attract long-term investment, and become a functional, growth-driven economy, or remain caught in a cycle of reaction and regression.

  • 2027: Thoughts on opposition machinations 

    2027: Thoughts on opposition machinations 

    By Tunde Rahman

    Opposition politicians have revved up their engine again ahead of the 2027 election. They are busy meeting, engaging in visitations, regrouping, and strategising under various platforms.

    And recently at a two-day event in Abuja themed “Strengthening Nigeria’s Democracy: Pathway to Good Governance and Political Integrity,” some of these opposition figures huffed and puffed, upbraiding the present government and disparaging President Bola Tinubu and the governing All Progressives Congress. 

    Some of them, like the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, have taken advantage of various public speaking opportunities to condemn the government’s policy options and decisions but offered little or no alternative course of action. 

    This is dismaying. During the Second Republic when the defunct Unity Party of Nigeria leader, the late sage Chief Obafemi Awolowo, was the Leader of Opposition, he would dissect the policies of the National Party of Nigeria government of President Shehu Shagari, cut it down into granular details and offer clear, convincing and actionable alternatives. 

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    Awolowo’s interventions provided useful solutions that would have bolstered Nigeria’s economy and enriched our democracy, but unfortunately, that era lasted only four years and three months as the military struck. 

    President Tinubu has barely spent two years in office. Yet, political opponents have upped the ante in a desperate move to grab power in 2027. The latest move in this direction was the visit last week of the defeated Peoples Democratic Party candidate in the 2023 presidential election, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, to former President Olusegun Obasanjo at his Abeokuta, Ogun State hilltop residence. 

    Atiku was in company with former Sokoto State governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, former Cross River State governor Liyel Imoke and Senator Abdul Ningi from Bauchi State, all of the crisis-ridden PDP. The former vice president claimed the meeting had nothing to do with 2027. Anyone who believes him on that will believe anything. There was also New Nigeria People’s Party leader, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwanso, who travelled all the way to Lagos from Kano to confer with former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola to discuss issues believed to be in connection with 2027. Ogbeni Aregbesola is leading the Omoluabi Group in Osun.

    Three sets of opposition groups are discernible at the moment. One group comprises President Tinubu’s opponents in the 2023 election who have refused to see, and perhaps may never see, anything good in the present government, hard as the administration works to reverse the past mistakes and dwindling fortunes of the country. 

    These men contested the last election with the President and were roundly defeated both at the ballot and in court. However, they have continued to carry on as if the 2023 election cycle has not ended. In this group are former VP Atiku and former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi. Their depleting rank of supporters, called the Atikulated and Obidents, are in league with them in this cantankerous behaviour.

    The second group is made up of some erstwhile APC chieftains who claim to still belong in the party but have constituted themselves into opposition elements within. Bitter and vicious, they include former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi and some others who rightly or wrongly feel entitled to political appointmens and government patronage. Amaechi had detached himself from the APC since he lost out at the APC primaries in August 2022.

    The last group is composed of former APC leaders who are completely out of the party but now vigorously working against the party’s interests. Ogbeni Aregbesola belongs in this group.

    These three groups of opposition figures are working to take over power in 2027. They are aiming at forming a coalition to unseat APC. None has been consummated as of this time.

    It is relevant to ask: why are opposition parties in our climes unduly fixated about taking over power? It may be argued that the zero-sum nature of our politics, the winner-takes-all syndrome, is a contributory factor. But then, the role of opposition parties in a democracy is much more crucial. It is critical in determining the level of accountability and acceptability of governing parties as well as the overall quality of a country’s democracy.

    In his seminal work on the “Role of Opposition Parties in Developing Democracies” published in a journal by Democracy Works Foundation, Williams Gumede posits that,

    “Opposition parties provide alternative visions, policies, and leaders to the governing party. They scrutinise government decisions, policies, and actions – and play oversight over the executive and the public administration. They defend the voters’ interests – not only their constituencies, but all the country’s voters.”

    Indeed, opposition parties’ capacity to show the electorate they are credible alternatives is crucial to the credibility of the democratic system. The strength of the opposition in a democracy plays a key role in the quality of that democracy and, by extension, the effectiveness of the state. 

    Gumede adds that, “a democratic system is significantly undermined if the opposition does not offer any credible alternatives to the governing party, is invisible in the public debate or does not have a public profile beyond during elections.”

    Although many will reckon that 2027 is still a long time and according to a Yoruba adage, the sun out there can still dry the clothes, nonetheless, it is doubtful if the opposition as currently constituted in Nigeria is capable of ousting the APC in 2027. 

    This is why I surmise this way: the major opposition parties, the PDP, Labour Party, and of course NNPP are neck deep in crisis. They parade fragile leadership with seemingly unending court litigations. 

    Generally, the opposition seems too uncoordinated and lacks focus. Any alliance by such groups can only be fickle and fissiparous. These opposition politicians are being driven by personal ambition, and not the interest of the country.

    Also, the matter of power rotation between the North and South over two terms is also an important factor that may work against the opposition. This factor and the machinations over 2027 may have prompted the Secretary to the Government of the Federation Senator George George Akume and APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje to ask the North to wait till 2031 for another shot at power, arguing that President Muhammadu Buhari from the North had done eight years in office and that the South should be allowed to complete its eight years as well.

    APC National Secretary Senator Ajibola Basiru spoke on this seeming emptiness of the disgruntled opposition groups. In an interview with the Nigerian Tribune published on Wednesday, February 12, 2025, he doubted if the opposition parties had what it takes to successfully cobble a merger or form a united front against the APC.

    He declared: “The question is, for the economic policies of Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, what are the alternatives that the opposition has brought out, beyond just planning for the 2027 election. If 2027 comes, what do they want to campaign with, and what alternatives are you giving the people. They don’t have any alternative. The so-called opposition groups are just power-mongers. The only job they have is that they want to access government power for personal aggrandizement without any program or policies for the Nigerian people. I’m not a soothsayer, but they will not be able to merge because all the leading opposition figures are driven by personal ambitions.”

    Do I agree with the APC National Secretary? I think so.

    – Rahman is Senior Special Assistant to President Tinubu on Media, Publicity and Special Duties.