As the leading political parties prepare to field the same old political foes in the 2019 Abia North Senatorial Election, Associate Editor, Sam Egburonu, examines the odds and wonder if it would be a two-horse race?
CONSIDERING the candidates that have emerged to fly the flags of the leading political parties in the 2019 Abia North Senatorial Election, the competition promises to be a repeat of 2015’s hot political contest. This is because it is the same political foes that fought the battle in 2015 that are gearing up for the 2019 contest.
The ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is fielding the serving Senator, Mao Ohuabunwa, while the former Governor of the state, Orji Uzor Kalu, is poised to fly the flag of APC in the senatorial contest. It would be recalled that in the hotly contested election in 2015, where Ohuabunwa of the PDP was finally declared the winner in the re-run, he defeated Kalu with a mere 195 votes. Ohuabunwa polled 26,009 votes while Kalu, who contested then on the ticket of PPA, polled 25, 814 to come second. This is even as Kalu’s supporters and supporters of the other contestants in the election alleged manipulation.
As the two prepare for what some commentators call a rescheduled contest, observers are thrilled to see the outcome.
APGA’s David Onuoha Ogba
The interest of observers in the outcome of the Abia North senatorial contest is more so as it is believed that Chief David Onuoha Ogba (Bourdex), a telecom expert in Aba and a Board of Trustee member of All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), is also set to fly the party’s flag in the race. It would be recalled that he was the party’s candidate for Abia North Senatorial District in the 2015 general election. Although there is still uncertainty over the candidacy of the chieftain, in an earlier interview in his Abiriba country home, Dr. Ogba had told some newsmen that he would be contesting the 2019 election for the senate. Dismissing rumour then that he may have concluded plans to dump APGA, Ogba had said that if given the opportunity he will contest to go to the Red Chamber in 2019 on the ticket of APGA. As he put it then: “Yes, I will run again. Definitely yes, I will.” If he actually flies APGA’s ticket and Kalu flies APC flag, then, the 2019 Abia North Senatorial Election will indeed be a re-scheduled contest to be fought by the same old political foes that battled against Ohuabunwa.
Already, analysts are looking at the issues and developments that seem poised to determine the outcome of the election. One of the issues, according to Dr. Francis Okpara, is the personality of the contestants. “More than any other factor, the 2019 Abia North Senatorial Election will be an ego contest. The three leading candidates, former Governor Orji, Senator Ohuabunwa and Dr. Ogba are big politicians who are desperate to prove their worth. Ordinarily, no one would deny that Orji in particular should not find it difficult to win in his own senatorial district given his personality, net-worth and political stamina across the state and Nigeria. But as we all know, since he fell out with his immediate successor, he has been fighting against the clique in charge of PDP in the state. Incidentally, that clique and PDP were in power both in Abia and at the federal level all through the two periods he contested for and lost senatorial elections. Now that Orji’s party is in control of the centre, it remains to be seen how he would fare. One thing is clear, Kalu will fight this political battle with all he has at least to prove that he is still popular and acceptable in his home,” he said.
Until recently, Kalu’s party, APC, was not considered very strong in Abia State. But even then, the party was well received in Abia North, even before Kalu’s formal defection to the party. This explains why, in 2015, Nnenna Nma Lancaster-Okoro, who flew the flag of All Progressives Congress, came fourth in the senatorial election. With Kalu’s entrance into the party, it is expected that the party stands the chance of doing better than it did in 2015.
The Nation investigation shows that it is not only Kalu and his party, APC, that are taking the battle very seriously; all the three most prominent political parties and their candidates are bent on taking the seat even as they have been moving round to explain to the people why the seat should be given to them.
Explaining why he believes there must be a change of the occupier of Abia North senatorial seat, Ogba, for example, had said: “My people are not seeing any dividends of democracy. Nothing has changed in Abia North Senatorial District. We are not seeing any roads network being undertaken. We don’t see electricity being improved on. We don’t see the lives of the people being improved on. We don’t see our schools being rehabilitated. And those are the things that would have changed. We don’t see anyone heaving a sigh of relief in the sense that what the people voted for had been actualised. So, that is the difference I would have made because I have the reach, I have the contact, I have the wherewithal.”
It would be recalled that the APGA candidate, who came third in the 2015 Senatorial Election in the Zone, got 13,633 votes, a proof that he and his political party are also not pushovers in the zone.
PDP’s Ohuabunwa:
Senator Mao Ohuabunwa, called ‘Follow better,’ by his supporters, was the sole aspirant for the senatorial ticket in his party. At the stress-free primary, he got 741 votes to get the nod of his party men to pursue his second term ambition to the Red Chamber.
Considered an experienced grassroots politician, Ohuabunwa has been in the National Assembly since 1999. He served in the 4th and 5th National Assembly as Member representing Arochukwu/Ohafia constituency of Abia State under the People’s Democratic Party between 1999 and 2007.
His political interest however dates beyond 1999. It would be recalled that in 1998, he ran for a seat in the Nigerian Federal House of Representatives under the umbrella of the United Nigeria Congress Party and won. But that process was truncated.
So, as Senator Ohuabunwa files out for the election, he would be depending on his experience, the power of incumbency and the strength of his party, the PDP.
APC’s Orji Uzor Kalu
Former Governor of Abia State, Orji Uzor Kalu, who hopes to clinch the Abia North senatorial seat on the ticket of All Progressives Congress (APC) is considered as a strong contender in the 2019 race. Although he had contested for this same seat since 2011 without success, informed observers said, more than in 2011 and 2015, Orji seems more likely to make it now. This is because he is not likely to suffer the obvious disadvantages that put paid to his ambitions in the last two elections. Unlike in those two elections, Orji will, in addition to his popularity, enjoy the advantage of contesting on a political platform that would not be easily intimidated and rigged out.
It would be recalled that in the 2015 elections, when he contested on the platform of the PPA, he blamed his loss to alleged intimidation by the then ruling party at both the centre and in the state, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). It was said then that the administration unleashed, what Kalu’s supporters described as “the worst form of intimidation,” against their candidate. According to them, “Armoured personnel carriers were stationed at the entry and exit of Igbere, Kalu’s home on the Election Day.” They also informed that this strange security measure was also replicated in every area considered to be Kalu’s stronghold.
Aside alleged use of excess security set-up to intimidate his supporters, Kalu’s camp has also pointed out that his loss could be attributed to what they described as the questionable role of the electoral umpire, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), when it reversed itself after the returning officer had declared the election inconclusive, citing irregularities and directing the parties to prepare for a rerun.
The drama that trailed the 2015 Abia North election result cannot be forgotten in a hurry. It would be recalled that after declaring the result inconclusive by 9am on that fateful day, barely three hours later, by 12 noon, it was learnt that the returning officer was allegedly ordered to declare the result as it is.
Considering that the face-off between the former governor, Orji Uzor Kalu and his erstwhile political son, the then incumbent Governor Theodore Orji, was at its peak then, some observers agreed with Orji Uzor Kalu’s associates that the then governor may have used his connection as a member of the then ruling party at the centre, PDP, to influence the outcome of the result against Kalu.
The story of the 2011 Abia North senatorial election is also instructive. It was alleged then that the army at that time not only stationed Armoured personnel carriers on all entry and exit points to Kalu’s house and community but also mounted check points.
This was at a time when the Progressives Peoples Alliance (PPA), the platform on which Kalu sought the mandate then, was literally dead after most of its members and supporters returned to the PDP.
But 2019, according to Nwabueze Onwuneme, an APC chieftain and House of Assembly candidate, will be different both in Abia North and all the other constituencies in Abia State. Onwuneme told The Nation, “All Progressives Congress (APC), which in 2015 was dismissed here as a Northern party has gained great acceptance in the state. You must agree that the former governor, Chief Orji Uzor Kalu, from Abia North, is one of our prominent leaders. I do not need to boast here that he is popular and that his popularity will ultimately help to give us Abia North Senatorial seat. APC, through the able leadership of great politicians like Orji Uzor Kalu, will not only win Abia North in 2019, but will also win the governorship election,” he said.
Besides the top personalities interested in the Abia North seat, The Nation investigation shows that the anxiety draws from the fact that the zone has become a political hot spot. It is on record that while Abia South and Central zones were work over for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidates, Enyinnaya Abaribe and Theodore Orji in 2015, Abia North was characterised by a long drawn legal tussle that culminated in a rerun.
Aware of this fact, the candidates and the political parties are taking special care to prepare for the elections in the zone. How it will all turn out remains to be seen.
