Former Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) President Dr. Olisa Agbakoba (SAN) has submitted a landmark policy report produced by his law firm Olisa Agbakoba Legal (OAL) to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It is entitled: “Governance and economic analysis and forecast 2025: To succeed, Nigeria needs innovation and efficiency to create a N500 trillion budget for 2026/2027.” He provided highlights at a media parley in Lagos
On the report
This policy paper presents a comprehensive strategy for Nigeria’s economic transformation from a resource-dependent economy to a diversified, production-oriented powerhouse capable of generating a N500 trillion budget by 2026/2027. This ambitious target represents a fundamental reimagining of Nigeria’s economic architecture and governance model that will address unsustainable debt burdens while dramatically enhancing revenue generation. Drawing on Acemoglu and Robinson’s “Why Nations Fail,” our analysis demonstrates that Nigeria’s economic underperformance stems primarily from extractive institutions that concentrate power and wealth among elites. Sustainable prosperity requires replacing these with inclusive institutions that distribute economic and political power broadly across society.
On fundamental imperatives
First, Nigeria must restructure its governance architecture through meaningful devolution of powers to states and local governments, constitutional reform that reflects true federalism, judicial independence, and legal system modernisation, and comprehensive anti-corruption measures and public service reform. Second, strategic interventions across multiple sectors can unlock over N500 trillion in economic value. These include N85 trillion from oil and gas reform through a shift from “Contract Oil” to “Development Oil”; N65 trillion from comprehensive tax reform and enhanced revenue collection; N50 trillion from MOFI optimisation through asset monetisation and public-private partnerships; N45 trillion from strategic development of critical minerals; N40 trillion from unlocking “dead capital” through property rights reform; N35 trillion from maritime and blue economy development; N30 trillion each from aviation sector revitalisation and digital economy expansion; N25 trillion each from enforcing local content requirements and implementing strategic trade policies; and N10 trillion from space industry development.
On judicial reform
Nigeria must develop a robust domestic arbitration ecosystem that reduces reliance on foreign dispute resolution mechanisms. We advised the Federal Ministry of Justice on the National Policy on Arbitration and Alternative Dispute Resolution, 2023. The policy aims to establish fundamental principles to guide the Federal and State governments’ participation in arbitration references, and position Nigeria as an attractive arbitration hub for domestic, regional, and international commercial arbitration whilst protecting national interest. This requires strengthening the Arbitration and Mediation laws and processes to align with international best practices while protecting national interests; establishing specialised arbitration centres with subject-matter expertise in key economic sectors; training a cadre of internationally recognised Nigerian arbitrators; and ensuring judicial support for arbitration through non-interference and efficient enforcement of awards. The arbitration framework should offer expedited procedures for time-sensitive commercial disputes, particularly those involving international investors or critical infrastructure projects.
On sector tribunals
Sector-specific tribunals for technical matters like taxation, intellectual property, and commercial disputes would further enhance efficiency while developing specialised judicial expertise. However, this restructuring must distinguish between the administration of justice (where legislative interference is inappropriate) and judicial administration (where legislative frameworks are necessary). Well-crafted legislation governing the National Judicial Council and judicial appointments would strengthen institutional governance without compromising decisional independence. The current judicial appointment process represents perhaps the greatest threat to judicial independence, with executive dominance creating systemic vulnerabilities to political pressure. Reform requires designing merit-based selection procedures with meaningful input from diverse stakeholders—the bar, civil society, judicial peers, and academic institutions. These procedures must prioritise competence, character, and commitment to constitutional values over political connections or demographic calculations. Judicial independence must be balanced with meaningful accountability mechanisms…
Strategic pathways to a N500 trillion economy
For Nigeria to achieve transformative economic growth, we must recognise the critical distinction between two foundational infrastructure types: hard infrastructure (physical assets like ports, railways, power systems, and digital networks) that provides the foundation for economic activity; soft infrastructure (institutions, laws, policies, rules, and regulations) that shape economic behaviour and determines whether assets generate prosperity or become instruments of extraction. Simultaneously, Nigeria must strategically advance three economic domains: The Blue Economy (sustainable use of ocean resources), which remains our most underdeveloped economic frontier despite Nigeria’s 853km coastline; the Green Economy (environmentally sustainable practices), which offers pathways to leapfrog traditional development stages; the Brown Economy (traditional industries), which requires moderniation and efficiency gains.
MOFI optimisation
The Ministry of Finance Incorporated (MOFI) holds assets worth N30 trillion but remains grossly underperforming. Through proper asset monetisation, concessions, and public-private partnerships, MOFI could generate at least N50 trillion annually. This includes approximately 50,000 abandoned federal projects across the country valued at over N10 trillion and Federal Government landed property estimated at about N5 trillion. The Federal Secretariat in Ikoyi Lagos alone is worth at least N120 billion and has been abandoned for over 40 years. MOFI needs comprehensive reform to transform it from a passive asset holder to an active asset manager. This requires establishing a professional asset management structure with private sector expertise, developing a comprehensive asset register to document all government-owned assets, and implementing aggressive asset monetisation strategies including sales, concessions, and public-private partnerships…
Enforcement of Section 162 of the Constitution
Most Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) are not fully aware that they are required to statutorily transfer all revenues generated by them to the Federation Account under section 162(1) of the Constitution. Even though the Constitution sets out the legal basis of public revenue, legislation is needed to compel all MDAs to make statutory transfers of all tax and non-tax income to the Federation Account…A central revenue monitoring system should be established to track all government receipts in real time, with regular public reporting of revenue generation and remittance by each MDA. Strict enforcement of this process will immediately double the tax and non-tax income of the Government very substantially, potentially reaching N50 trillion.
Maritime and blue economy development
The maritime sector represents one of Nigeria’s most significant untapped economic opportunities. Experts estimate it can generate N7 trillion annually and create 2 million jobs over five years. When fully optimised, the sector could generate up to N35 trillion annually through direct maritime services, port operations, shipping, and blue economy activities. Currently, Nigeria loses about N20 billion daily (N7.2 trillion annually) at ports due to poor infrastructure and inefficiencies. Over 25,000 foreign vessels illegally trade in Nigeria’s coastal waters, resulting in an estimated revenue loss of at least N4 trillion annually. To address these challenges and capitalise on opportunities, several key legislations need to be passed. These include a comprehensive Blue Economy Act to establish a framework for marine governance and resource management; a Marine Spatial Planning Act to regulate ocean space usage and avoid conflicts between industries; a Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture Act to strengthen regulation ensuring sustainability and food security; a Maritime Security and Piracy Suppression Act to combat piracy and maritime crimes; a Ports and Harbors Bill for modernising port operations and infrastructure; and a Maritime Zones Bill to better define and enforce Nigeria’s maritime jurisdiction. Additionally, the Coastal and Inland Shipping Act (2003) needs strengthening to prevent violations by foreign vessels…
From “Contract Oil” to “Development Oil”
Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads in its economic development, with its vast oil and gas reserves presenting a unique opportunity for transformation through a shift from the existing “Contract Oil” model to a “Development Oil” approach. The current governance framework, characterised by passive state participation through Joint Ventures and Production Sharing Contracts with International Oil Companies, has failed to translate Nigeria’s petroleum wealth into broad economic prosperity, leaving 133 million Nigerians in multidimensional poverty despite constitutional mandates that natural resources be used for citizens’ welfare. By implementing a “Development Oil” model, Nigeria could potentially generate N85 trillion in additional value through strategic asset management, active state participation, value addition within the country, and enhanced local content development. This paradigm shift would position oil and gas resources not merely as commodities to be extracted and exported, but as strategic catalysts for comprehensive national development, aligning with constitutional obligations and addressing the resource curse that has plagued the nation…
Financial services sector revitalisation
The Financial Services Sector (FSS) is the oxygen and lifeblood of a strong economy. The FSS consists of several key institutions: the Banks, the National Credit Guarantee Corporation, a Development Bank, and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)…
The CBN is the fourth FSS institution. The CBN as presently constituted is overburdened with far too many functions – monetary policy, development funding, banking supervision, financial misconduct, etc. Nigeria, as a federation with diverse regional economies, would benefit from a reformed central banking system that combines decentralised economic responsiveness with strong centralised regulation. Drawing lessons from both the U.S. Federal Reserve System and the Bank of England, we propose a hybrid model that addresses Nigeria’s unique economic challenges. Nigeria should establish Regional Reserve Banks aligned with its geopolitical zones.
These would include the North Central Reserve Bank, North East Reserve Bank, North West Reserve Bank, South East Reserve Bank, South South Reserve Bank, and South West Reserve Bank. They would collect and analyse regional economic data, implement monetary policy with regional sensitivity, participate in a Nigerian Open Market Committee (similar to the FOMC), address regional development funding needs, and maintain closer relationships with financial institutions in their regions. While decentralising operational aspects, regulatory functions should be strengthened through a centralised approach. The Central Bank of Nigeria would focus primarily on monetary policy stability, coordinate financial system stability, manage the Nigerian Monetary Policy Committee, and oversee national currency and reserves. The Nigerian Prudential Regulatory Authority would handle banking supervision and licensing, implement prudential regulations, monitor capital adequacy and liquidity requirements, and conduct stress testing of financial institutions. The Nigerian Financial Conduct Authority would investigate financial misconduct, protect consumers of financial services, ensure market integrity, and promote competition in financial services. This reform could generate significant economic impacts. It would inject over N10 trillion into the Nigerian economy through improved policy effectiveness and create thousands of high-quality jobs across the financial sector. The changes would reduce the regulatory burden on compliant institutions, improve monetary policy transmission to diverse regions, better address regional economic disparities, enhance financial inclusion in underserved areas, and strengthen investor confidence through improved regulatory clarity.
Digital economy expansion
The digital economy already contributes 18 per cent to GDP and has generated over N1 trillion in two years. With proper legislation and investment, this could increase to N30 trillion annually. This sector has huge potential for both tax and non-tax revenue opportunities, but realizing this potential requires appropriate legislative frameworks. Key areas for digital economy expansion include fintech development, providing a clear regulatory framework for financial technology companies; e-commerce expansion, supporting the growth of online marketplaces and digital trade; digital infrastructure investment in broadband and data centres; digital skills development, training Nigerians in tech skills to support the digital economy; and digital government services, digitising government services to improve efficiency and reduce corruption. The digital economy can drive job creation, particularly for youth, enhance financial inclusion by providing access to financial services for the unbanked, improve government service delivery through e-government initiatives, and boost productivity across all sectors through digital transformation. Proper policy frameworks, investment incentives, and skill development programs can accelerate this growth.
Tax reform and revenue collection
Reorganising revenue collection agencies and addressing tax evasion by multinationals (which has cost $178 billion over 10 years) could yield N65 trillion annually. This includes creating a one-stop shop for revenue collection by transferring all revenue collection functions to the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS). For instance, the Customs Service currently provides two functions, enforcement and revenue collection. The revenue collection function could be transferred to FIRS, with the remaining enforcement function merged with Immigration to create a Nigerian Border Protection Agency. This would create a more coherent and efficient revenue collection system while strengthening border enforcement. The tax base needs expansion by bringing more individuals and businesses into the tax net. This requires simplifying tax compliance procedures, deploying technology for tax administration, and implementing effective tax education programs. Property taxes, currently underutilized, should be strengthened as a major revenue source for state and local governments.
Local content enforcement
Nigeria’s inadequate enforcement of local content requirements represents a significant untapped economic opportunity. While the Nigerian Oil and Gas Industry Content Development Act has achieved some success in the engineering sector, it has been poorly implemented across other critical services. Of the 36 value chains in crude oil exploration, at least four key sectors—Legal, Banking, Shipping, and Insurance—continue to exclude Nigerian participation almost entirely. The scale of this economic leakage is substantial: in legal services alone, Nigeria loses over $1 billion annually to foreign firms. When properly enforced across all sectors, local content policies could generate N25 trillion in economic value annually while creating substantial domestic employment and skills development…
Unlocking dead capital
Nigeria’s total property assets are estimated at over $6 trillion, yet 80 per cent of properties are dead capital with no revenue value. Reforming property titling to link property to the financial system could inject at least N40 trillion initially into the economy by converting “dead capital” into bankable assets that financial institutions can recognize as collateral. The Land Use Act created a framework for land titles, but the process has become clogged, diminishing the impact of land collateralisation on lending and borrowing. Reform of land use and administration would enable Nigerians to borrow against their property, releasing massive funds into the economy…
Trade policy reform
…Through comprehensive trade policy transformation, Nigeria can generate N25 trillion in economic value through foreign exchange savings, revenue enhancement, and domestic economic stimulation—establishing itself as a resilient, competitive force in a fragmented global trading system where national economic strategy has replaced multilateral cooperation as the defining feature of international commerce.
Critical minerals development
Nigeria holds substantial deposits of critical minerals that are essential for modern technologies and the global green energy transition. The North Central region, comprising states like Plateau, Nasarawa, Niger, Kwara, Kogi, Benue, and the Federal Capital Territory, is particularly rich in minerals like Columbite-Tantalite (Coltan), Lithium, Tin, Rare Earth Elements, Cobalt, Tungsten, and Zirconium. Strategic development of these mineral resources would not only diversify Nigeria’s economy beyond oil and gas but also position the country as a key supplier in the global critical minerals supply chain, potentially generating up to N45 trillion annually. This requires creating a comprehensive geological survey to map mineral deposits, developing modern mining legislation that balances investor incentives with national interests, and establishing transparent licensing procedures to attract reputable mining companies…
Aviation sector revitalisation
The global aviation industry supports 65.5 million jobs worldwide and contributes $2.7 trillion (3.6 per cent) to global GDP. Despite this potential, Nigeria’s aviation sector has severely underperformed, characterized by alarming instability in domestic airlines. By 2000, approximately 150 airlines were registered in Nigeria, yet only 28 survived by 2006. This trend continues in 2025, with indigenous carriers struggling against structural and regulatory challenges, most notably the absence of effective local content policies. Nigeria maintains over 90 Bilateral Air Service Agreements (BASAs) and participates in the Single African Air Transport Market with 27 other African Union member states. However, these agreements predominantly benefit foreign carriers. Currently, more than 25 foreign airlines operate into Nigeria from multiple international destinations, while only one Nigerian airline maintains international operations and a mere handful serve regional routes. This imbalance allows foreign carriers to dominate Nigerian airspace, extracting over N1 trillion annually from the economy—resources that could otherwise support national development. The implementation of a comprehensive “Fly Nigeria Bill,” modelled after the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act 2003, presents a transformative opportunity. This legislation would reserve commercial air transportation of passengers, cargo, and services to Nigerian-flagged carriers, ensuring that government expenditure on air travel (conservatively estimated at N100 billion annually) builds domestic airline capacity rather than enriching foreign carriers. By guaranteeing a stable base of operations, revenue, and passengers, this policy would create sustainable business models for indigenous airlines while reducing foreign exchange outflows. Corporate governance reform within the aviation sector is equally crucial to address the persistent failure rate of Nigerian airlines. Regulatory frameworks establishing a clear separation between ownership and professional management, strengthening financial oversight, and enhancing operational risk management would build investor and public confidence. Complementing these regulatory improvements, infrastructure development focusing on airport modernization, runway enhancements, and navigation system upgrades would improve operational efficiency and safety standards. Strategic interventions should include establishing a specialized aviation leasing company to reduce the capital burden on Nigerian airlines, and making modern aircraft acquisition more accessible. Developing comprehensive aviation training institutes would build local expertise in piloting, engineering, and management, while investment in domestic maintenance facilities would stem the outflow of foreign exchange for overseas maintenance and create thousands of high-skilled technical jobs. Through these coordinated interventions, the aviation sector could generate approximately N30 trillion in economic value through direct operations, tourism facilitation, trade enablement, and associated services—transforming from a drain on national resources to a catalyst for economic growth.
Space industry development
While aviation represents the present frontier of aerospace development, space technology offers Nigeria’s next horizon of economic opportunity. The global space economy has experienced explosive growth, with space infrastructure companies alone attracting a record $14.5 billion in private investment in 2021. Current projections indicate the global space economy will reach $1.8 trillion by 2035—presenting a strategic window for Nigerian participation. Nigeria’s existing space programme, while modest, provides a foundation for expansion. The Nigerian Communications Satellite (NIGCOMSAT) and the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA) have established basic capabilities, but significant policy modernisation and investment are required to capture substantial economic value. The 2006 National Space Policy and 2010 NASRDA Act require comprehensive updates to align with contemporary international frameworks, particularly the Artemis Accords governing future space exploration and resource utilisation. A revitalised Nigerian space program would focus on five strategic domains: satellite communications, earth observation, position/navigation/timing services, space science/exploration, and downstream application development. By prioritising practical applications with immediate economic returns alongside longer-term capability building, Nigeria could establish a self-reinforcing ecosystem of space-derived economic benefits…With strategic investment and policy alignment, Nigeria’s space sector could reasonably generate N10 trillion in economic value through direct services, technology applications, and productivity enhancements across multiple sectors of the economy.
On need for speedy implementation
Implementation requires execution at “Trumpian speed” – characterised by decisive action, concurrent implementation across multiple fronts, results-oriented governance, bureaucratic streamlining, and technology leverage for acceleration. The ultimate success of these economic policies will be measured not by macroeconomic statistics or international recognition, but by tangible improvements in the daily lives of ordinary Nigerians: Does the market trader in Onitsha have more money in her pocket? Is food more affordable for the factory worker in Kano? Can the farmer in Benue access better healthcare and education for his children? Does the office worker in Lagos see a clear path to a better future? With a rapidly growing population, intensifying climate impacts, escalating global competition, and an unsustainable debt burden, Nigeria must capitalise on recent reform momentum to build inclusive institutions for broadly shared prosperity. The transformation outlined in this report is not just economically necessary—it is the moral imperative of our time.
Reimagining governance architecture
Effective governance and strong institutions form the bedrock of economic development. Nigeria requires comprehensive reforms in this area to create an enabling environment for economic transformation. Central to this transformation is the fundamental reimagining of Nigeria’s governance architecture. The current over-centralisation of power creates bottlenecks, encourages rent-seeking, and stifles local initiative. However, before addressing structural reforms, we must confront a more fundamental challenge: establishing political order and national unity as the foundation for all other governance reforms.
Devolution of powers (restructuring)
The current federal structure of Nigeria is excessively centralised, concentrating power and resources at the federal level while limiting the autonomy and capacity of states and local governments. This arrangement has proven inefficient and has contributed to poor governance outcomes across the country. A meaningful restructuring must address three key issues: what are the federating units, how to ensure fair fiscal federalism and revenue sharing, and how to ensure that power rotates fairly and inclusively. On federating units, George Anderson, in his book “Federalism: An Introduction,” explains that federations are products of unique historical processes and can vary greatly in structure—ranging from as few as two federating units to over 80. Nigeria’s federating units have evolved to reflect its diverse ethnic, religious, and cultural landscape.
On model options
Three distinct models present viable options for Nigeria’s restructuring. In Model 1 (Zones as Federating Units), the six geopolitical zones (Northcentral, Northeast, Northwest, Southeast, Southsouth, and Southwest) would become the primary federating units. These zones broadly accommodate Nigeria’s diversity, though not perfectly, as they contain unequal numbers of states. Each zone would have the autonomy to create its internal states and local governments as needed, creating a more flexible system responsive to regional needs. In Model 2 (Enhanced State Federation), the current 36 states would remain as federating units, but with constitutional measures to ensure greater equality among states within each zone. The geopolitical zones would be formally recognised in the constitution and granted powers to pass regional legislation and establish shared political, economic, and judicial institutions, creating a more cooperative federal system. Model 3 (Mixed Approach) would recognise both the zones and states as federating units, creating a two-tier federal structure. Additionally, it would provide special status to certain areas of national significance—such as major cities with federal importance—and create special protections for minority groups that might otherwise lack adequate representation in either zone or state governance structures.
On fiscal federalism
On fiscal federalism, Nigeria’s current arrangement is extremely centralised. The Federal Government collects at least 97 per cent of revenues, making it one of the most centralised federations globally. Most federal systems collect between 50-75 per cent of revenues at the central level. Nigeria needs to create a better balance by allowing states greater control over natural resources in their domain. The current constitutional distribution of legislative power heavily favours the Federal Government, which exercises exclusive authority over 68 items and shares jurisdiction with states over 30 concurrent items… We commend President Tinubu’s enforcing of Section 7 of the Constitution, which guarantees financial autonomy for local governments and establishes democratically elected governance at the local level. Local government is critical because most citizens live at this level, and building capacity here is essential for effectively addressing primary healthcare, education, and other local concerns.
On constitutional reform
Closely connected with the devolution of powers is constitutional reform. The 1999 Constitution lacks popular acceptance because it was imposed by the military. The current model of piecemeal constitutional amendment has proven ineffective, taking far too long (over 20 years) and failing to win popular and legitimate acceptance. Prof. Ben Nwabueze in his paper “Legal Authority for the Convening and Holding of a National Conference and for the Making of a People’s Constitution,” suggests a more pragmatic option: wholesale constitutional replacement through the National Assembly’s sovereign authority under Section 4(1) of the Constitution.
