The dust raised by the Osun governorship election seemed to have settled down a bit to permit a deep interrogation of all that transpired in that off-season poll which generated intense interest, anxiety and tension while it lasted. The winner is moderate in the celebration of the win while the loser is heading for the law court to contest the results as most politicians do after an electoral contest in our clime. The political parties and actors involved in the process are counting their gains and losses. Some are checking their account balances and gnashing their teeth while others, mainly the electorate, particularly those who participated in the ensuing rerun who became automatic delegates in a non-delegate poll, are heading to the banks with their loot. Yet, others are beginning to plot their graphs, position themselves and sharpen their lobbying skills for possible placement in positions. We are at that juncture now when the Governor-elect, Alhaji Gboyega Oyetola, is being besieged by the hordes of appointment-seekers and their CVs.
The Osun poll is over in simple language. It has been won and lost as it were. It’s apposite now to look at the returns and examine why the election went the way it did and posted the results that we have. Generally, many including the candidates, their political parties, analysts and commentators seem to share the opinion that the first ballot was to some extent free, fair and fairly representative of the will of the people. It’s the second election, the rerun, that is controversial and which the opposition PDP rejected perhaps because it failed to win it and seal its initial lead. I shall return to all of that shortly.
Of the forty-eight political parties that participated in the Osun election, the PDP candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke, garnered 254, 698 votes to the APC’s candidate, Alhaji Oyetola, who polled 254, 345 votes in the first ballot, meaning a higher return of 353 for Adeleke. Senator Iyiola Omisore trailed the two with 128,053 votes. From the total 1.25million PVCs that were collected in the state, some 721,607 valid votes were returned in that election.
Essentially, a content analysis of the returns would reveal that the parties and their candidates won considerably in their major strongholds, their homesteads. Senator Adeleke won in his Ede North and Ede South, Oyetola in his Boripe home local government and capital Osogbo while Omisore took control of Ife Central. What are their margins of victories? In line with the way of our politicians, three candidates fully maximised their seeming advantage, cornering their domains and out-manoeuvring the rest. For instance, the PDP candidate polled a whooping 35, 438 votes in the two local governments in his Ede homestead, posting a huge 23,901 difference between him and the next candidate, APC’s Oyetola, who got a paltry 11,537 votes. In Ife Central, Omisore’s central area in Ifeland, he secured a massive 20, 494 votes, with marginal 6,957 votes for APC and 3,200 for PDP.
APC, however, took a marginal lead in Ife South and Ife North, polling 7,223 and 6,527 respectively over PDP’s 4,872 and 5,486. In Iwo Local Government where the Action Democratic Party candidate, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti alias Sheuu, hails from, he also maximally exploited the homeboy syndrome, polling 16, 425 votes. APC got 7,644 votes, PDP 6,122 and SDP 4,153 votes.
However, in Boripe Local Government where Oyetola’s Iragbiji hometown is located, the APC candidate polled 11,655 to Adeleke’s 6,892, a mere difference of less than 5000, 4,763 votes to be precise. The question could be asked as to why he too didn’t seize the momentum, exploiting the advantage which was well within his reach given the fact that his party is in control at the Boripe headquarters and state capital Osogbo.
That election also reaffirmed the relative strengths and weaknesses of the major gladiators. Governor Rauf Aregbesola known to have performed brilliantly well in the area of education and road infrastructure in the state, transforming the capital Osogbo in the process, however, did not do so well in Ijesha South one of the APC’s strongholds. The Ijesha were said to be angry with its homeboy for a number of reasons. They wanted an expressway in the town, did not like the handling of the burnt Atakumosa and Sabo Markets and the elite in the area were also rankled by the renaming of Ilesha Grammar School. So the elite instigated the animosity against the governor. In the end, APC lost Ilesha West and Atakumosa West but won Ilesha East and Atakumosa East. The party, however, did not come out of Ijesha South with a deficit. Ijesha North where the PDP has always produced the House of Representatives candidate has never been APC’s comfort zone.
House of Assembly Speaker Nojeem Salam took a firm control of his Ejigbo area. The loss of Ikire/Gbongan axis by the APC could be attributed to the defection of former Chief of Staff Peter Babalola to PDP, though the area is where the in-coming Deputy Governor Gboyega Alabi hails from. But a general trend in that election, it would appear, is the opposition concentrated on areas considered APC strongholds like Ijeshaland, Ikire/Gbongan, Ikirun and Iwo among others and heavily funded their campaigns there.
Adeoti’s victory in Iwo is not just down to his individual strength, it is said to be largely due to the Iwo governorship agenda, the Iwo lokan project. The people filed out to demonstrate their support for the project even though they knew it could not be actualised in that election.
Now, on the rerun in seven polling units across four councils, many would ask- why the controversy? They would argue the results, which eventually separated the winner from the loser, could not have been different in the real sense of it. The SDP candidate Omisore and Deputy Speaker House of Representatives, Hon. Lasun Yusuf, became the beautiful brides in the wake of the rerun. Omisore’s influence radiates through the entire Ifeland including Garage Olode in Ife South where his father is the traditional ruler. Both the APC and PDP leaders courted Omisore to back them for the rerun. Senate President Bukola Saraki flew to Ife for discussions and negotiations with Omisore. But it would have been a political clanger if the former Senator had gone with the same PDP elements that had muscled him out of the party in preference for the less-qualified Adeleke. Aligning with APC for the poll was a win-win for both Omisore and the APC. Omisore was a founding chieftain of Alliance for Democracy, the precursors of the Action Congress of Nigeria, which aligned with the other legacy party, the defunct Congress for Progressive Change, to form the APC. He was deputy governor to former governor of the state and APC Interim National Chairman, Chief Bisi Akande. Again, even though the court has acquitted him of complicity in the murder of Chief Bola Ige, Omisore is yet to be fully extricated of the alleged deed in the minds of the people and the most vocal of this group seem to be within the APC. For Omisore, aligning with the APC at this time of his seeming political regeneration is like offering him another lifeline to fully re-launch himself. He grabbed the opportunity with both hands and gave the APC what it badly needed: the votes.
The APC leaders also discussed with Hon. Lasun Yusuf, an ally- turned-political foe of the leadership in Osun. He is believed to have worked to advance APC fortunes in Orolu LGA, though of the three polling units slated for the rerun, the party won two and lost one. Orolu used to be a safe ground for the APC, having never lost election in the area since 2007. This time, it trailed PDP in the first ballot allegedly because the party structure had become weak. PDP won marginally, beating APC by a meagre 2000 plus votes against the impression in some quarters that Orolu is a major PDP stronghold. Lasun Yusuf’s influence in Orolu, an adjourning LGA to his Irepodun, is minimal or non-existent. In Irepodun, comprising Erin-Ile and Ilobu, the APC won the entire Erin-Ile in the first ballot, taking all the five wards.
It wasn’t only Omisore and Yusuf that the APC courted in those decisive days. They spoke with everybody and anybody that could pull in the votes. What was left undone towards the first election, the party totally embraced in the days leading to the second ballot. APC National Leader Asiwaju Bola Tinubu moved in decisively to crack the nuts here. For instance, former SSG Adeoti’s Iwo area is not within the zone for the rerun, yet Asiwaju pulled a call through to him, telling him he had made his point and it was time to come back home. That was the kind of last-minute consultation, discussion and political brinkmanship that brought the votes and the final victory. In the rerun, of the seven polling units, APC won in six to PDP’s one, thus polling the final valid votes of 255, 505 to PDP’s 255, 023.
- Rahman, former Editor THISDAY on Saturday and Sunday newspapers, is Media Adviser to Asiwaju Tinubu.
