As the 2027 governorship election in Bauchi State draws closer, attention is turning to Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Professor Ali Pate, who is reportedly eyeing the ticket of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Political observers are divided on whether the former Minister of State for Health and renowned academic stands a realistic chance of emerging as the APC flag bearer, given the complexities of Bauchi’s political terrain, David Adenuga reports
Several politicians in Bauchi are already showing interest in the 2027 governorship contest—Among those testing the waters behind the scenes is Pate. He is not new to Bauchi politics and remains a possible contender.
Pate is no stranger to ambition. In 2015, Pate indicated an interest in contesting for the Bauchi state governorship election under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
At the time, he had promised to create one million jobs by 2020 if elected the governor of the state, adding that he would “feature deep youth and women participation and ensure improved management of the state fiscal spaces as well as improved investment climate for private sector participation.” He, however, lost in the party primary.
Pate again attempted to contest for the governorship ticket for the 2019 and 2023 elections under the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) respectively but was also unsuccessful at the primaries.
It’s believed that one major obstacle that may stand in the way of Prof. Ali Pate’s governorship ambition in 2027 is rooted in Bauchi’s political history: Bauchi Central has never produced a governor. Since the return to democracy in 1999, power has rotated between Bauchi North and South, leaving the Central zone without a precedent of nominating a winning candidate.
This history matters because zoning and power-sharing are deeply entrenched in Bauchi’s politics. Party stakeholders often lean on “precedent” when pushing for candidates and opponents could weaponize this gap to argue that Bauchi Central lacks the political machinery, networks, or structures to deliver the state’s top seat.
For Pate, despite his technocratic profile and international recognition in health and governance, building cross-zonal alliances will be critical. He would need to convince party leaders, traditional institutions, and grassroots voters that it is time to break the historical trend—and that his candidacy represents inclusiveness, not disruption.
In short, while his competence is rarely in doubt, the absence of a Central zone governorship track record could make his path steeper than aspirants from zones with stronger historical claims.
The reason is that Bauchi South itself has dominated the governorship in the last 23 years, taking advantage of its population and the number of local government areas. The Southern zone accounts for 63 per cent of the votes in the state.
All the governors since 1999 on the platform of both the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the All Progressives Congress (APC) are from the region. They include Ahmadu Adamu Muazu (PDP), Isa Yuguda (APC), Mohammed Abubakar (APC), and the incumbent Governor Bala Mohammed (PDP)
The tradition in Bauchi State is that if the governor comes from the South, the Deputy must come from the North while the Secretary to the State Government (SSG), has to come from the Central.
In fact, the only time the northern zone, which comprises Misau, Jama’re and Katagum Emirate Councils produced a governor was 43 years ago when Abubakar Tatari Ali became the first civilian governor between 1979 and 1983. But, his tenure was thwarted by the military coup on December 31, 1983, which brought General Muhammadu Buhari to power as a military dictator .
Pate hails from Misau Local Government in Bauchi Central, which has a moderate population, not densely populated, and this structural reality may limits Pate’s electoral weight.
However, his father, Malam Aliyu, a respected academic and philanthropist, built wide goodwill across the state and northern Nigeria, a legacy that remains an advantage to his son.
According to political observers in the state, the Minister’s image in politics has changed over time. “He was once seen as too stingy , unwilling to spend on grassroots politics, and viewed by many as distant. Some critics even called him someone who “uses and dumps” allies. But since becoming Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare, Pate has taken a different approach.
“He reportedly gave over a huge amount of money to support party activities in Bauchi State, which improved his standing among politicians. His influence has also grown through federal projects in his hometown, including a new Federal College of Nursing in Misau and the upgrade of the Federal Medical Centre in Azare to a teaching hospital. These projects have provided jobs, especially for young people, and boosted his support base,” said a lecturer with the Abubakar Tatari Ali Polytechnic (ATAP), Bauchi, Comrade Abdullahi Yelwa
Abdullahi.
Abdullahi continued “Nevertheless, his weaknesses remain. Many long-time allies argue that he has not rewarded their loyalty, leaving them disillusioned. Several have deserted his camp, insisting he lacks the consistency of a full-time politician.”
According to the commentator, these estranged associates could puncture his campaign by leveraging their first-hand experiences with him. Unless he reconciles with these elements, they could become formidable obstacles.”
More so, it’s believed that the internal structure of the All Progressives Congress in Bauchi also complicates matters. Though Pate has injected resources at intervals, other party stakeholders who consistently sustain and finance the party daily are likely to wield greater influence in candidate selection.
It’s also believed that delegates may lean toward such steady supporters rather than “occasional benefactors.” Moreover, literate technocrats like Pate are often perceived as threats by entrenched grassroots politicians who fear their reformist instincts could disrupt long-standing patronage systems.
National dynamics further shape Pate’s chances. While President Bola Tinubu leads the APC at the federal level, Abdullahi doubts his influence will significantly sway Bauchi voters. In the 2023 general elections, Bauchi South determined the outcome with its numerical strength, despite federal backing for the APC candidate, Air Marshal Sadique Baba Abubakar.
Abdullahi mentioned perceived discontent with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s policies, including subsidy removal and rising hardship among farmers, may further weaken federal leverage in Bauchi. The perception that Tinubu’s appointments favor individuals rather than rewarding collective party loyalty in Bauchi also dampens grassroots enthusiasm.
Pate will also have other strong aspirants to contend with within the APC. The Senator representing Bauchi South Senatorial District under the APC, Shehu Umar Buba, who is now seen as the leading candidate for the 2027 governorship election in the state, as he is now actively building a strong political base, distributing funds, and mobilizing supporters.
Another notable contender in the APC is the Foreign Affairs Minister Ambassador Yusuf Maitama Tuggar who is being considered as also a potential governorship contender in Bauchi State.
Furthermore, potential rivals within APC—including former governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar and businessman Nura Manu Soro—are likely to contest, making the primaries a high-stakes affair vulnerable to the influence of money politics.
Political observers believe that Pate’s candidacy is both promising and precarious. His federal clout, philanthropic legacy, and infrastructural interventions in the health sector give him leverage. Yet, his past political missteps, weak grassroots ties, and the entrenched dominance of Bauchi South present formidable hurdles.
An elder statesman in the APC who also spoke on confidence with The Nation insisted that Pate’s weaknesses lingers “He has reasonable knowledge of the political terrain only that he has not been doing well in terms of maintaining his support base . He has not been supporting the people who have been with him in all his journeys moving from one party to another. Many don’t see him as a full time active politician.
The analyst warned that Bauchi politics often discriminates against technocrats. “Sometimes names in conventional politics , doctor this doctor that , professor this , professor that are threat to a literate politicians who never want people like him to come closer to the corridors of power because they believe they know too much and they cannot be deceived so for that reason such people will do everything humanly possible to block opportunities for him to become the governor because they believe once he is there manipulative tendencies and deceptions do not continue and there are those who live by that and that is their way of survival”
The commentator, while stressing the peculiar nature of Bauchi politics, warned that unless deliberate steps are taken, Bauchi South will continue to hold sway.
According to him, unlike Plateau State, where power has rotated among the three senatorial zones since 1999 and become an accepted convention, Bauchi has yet to adopt such a structured arrangement.
He argued that unless stakeholders in Bauchi initiate a genuine dialogue to entrench a fair system of power rotation—not for the benefit of any single aspirant, but for the collective good of the state—the dominance of Bauchi South is likely to persist.
At present, the odds appear heavily stacked in favour of Bauchi South, whose political actors have historically dictated the governorship. Without an internal crisis in the zone capable of fracturing its influence and opening space for rivals, it is difficult to see how any candidate from Bauchi North or Central can break through. As one commentator put it, if Bauchi politics continues along its familiar trajectory, the chances of producing a governor from outside Bauchi South remain slim.
“In Plateau state I know they do rotate the governorship from 1999 to date and they were able to sustain that, we need to find time dialogue among stakeholders and start somewhere not because of anybody but for the overall interest of the state “
“if that is done, to me is going to assist greatly but if nothing of such is put in place I wonder and I seriously doubt if in time soon anybody outside Bauchi South will become governor except something happens among the actors in the Bauchi south that they may end up fighting themselves and thereby somebody accidentally emerge to become, but if the politics as it has been rolling itself keep going on the way it used to chances are very weak for anybody outside Bauchi south to make it to the government house.”
On Pate’s personal prospects, the analyst was cautious. “Yes, he has the chance and he may not get the chance, this is probability, so he needs to do a lot of homework and the major challenge is even to get the party ticket and even where the party ticket is guaranteed, there is no assurance that if he is the flag bearer, the electorate will vote for him simply because of the reality of the politics in the state.”
But the Secretary-General, of the Primary School Old Boys Association of Bakaro/Dangikka in Bauchi, Umar Musa insisted Pate’s record of service and international experience make him the best choice for governor.
“It’s time for purposeful and progressive leadership in Bauchi State, with vision, experience, and dedication to public service,” he said.
Musa believes no other aspirants can compete with Pate in terms of achievements, noting his policies such as free ambulance services for pregnant women, reduced dialysis costs for kidney patients, and maternal health reforms across the country.
He also highlighted the Minister’s global roles, including serving as a professor at Harvard, CEO of Big Win Philanthropy, and Global Director for Health, Nutrition, and Population at the World Bank.
According to him, Bauchi needs leaders who can improve education, healthcare, agriculture, housing, water supply, security, and jobs.
“Professor Pate has all it takes to address these challenges,” he argued.
“As his Primary School mates, we are proud of him and believe he is the right leader to take Bauchi forward. We will continue to call on him to run and support him fully if he accepts,” he said.
