Tag: Alpari

There is a chance that USD will end this week positively, triggering a mid-term signal for a correction. For instance on two main pairs with the USD, so EURUSD and GBPUSD we do have a potential for a double top formation and on the USDJPY the price made a false bearish breakout and is now aiming higher. To estimate the chances of the USD for a further appreciation, let’s look at the Dollar Index.

Here we are still in the long-term downtrend (lower lows and lower highs) but first attempt to end that was already made – the price broke the down trendline (black) and is heading significantly higher. Unfortunately there is a bit to early for a buy signal yet. What the price have to do to trigger it is to break the 92.6 resistance (blue colour). That one played and important role in August and September and now restricts the price from the top.

Interestingly, in the same place as the blue horizontal resistance we do have a correction equality pattern (grey rectangles). As we can see, those two previous corrections (in August) were almost the same in term of the depth. If we assume that we are now bouncing from the 92,6, the third one will be the same too! That being said, we can see that the 92,6 is crucial here and as long as we are below that level there is no buy signal yet. Actually we can have quite the opposite so sellers can use that as a good resistance and start selling again, dragging USD into the another bearish wave.

Tomasz Wisniewski
Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

The Alpari brand
Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

What a year that is for Gold! Since the beginning of the 2017 we have almost constant upswing, which as for now, managed to lift the price around 200$/oz higher. This situation pleasures us as the bullish outlook on this precious metal was one of our main points in the special report with forecast for the 2017, which we created for the Alpari clients.

Short and mid-term up trend is pretty clear but what the situation looks like when we look on a longer horizon like for example few years? Well, without further introduction we can firmly claim that the outlook is bullish. Our positive view on gold is based on the fact that since the 2011 till the August 2018 we had an enormous wedge formation (blue lines), which in this case has a potential to be a trend continuation pattern of the upswing seen for many years before the top in the 2011. So basically the gold was climbing sharply for decades, made all time highs in 2011, then experienced a correction, which apparently ended last month. Yes, that is pretty much our outlook on XAUUSD.

As for now, the closest resistance is the yellow area around the 1380$/oz. The chances that we will eventually get there are very high. Maybe not in September but the price should gradually follow this path and reach that target climbing higher while making sequences of higher highs and higher lows.  The closest support is the green area around the psychological barrier on the 1300 USD/oz (green) but the positive sentiment will be alive as long as we will stay above the upper line of the wedge, which is significantly below that horizontal support.

Tomasz Wisniewski

Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

The Alpari brand

Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.

Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

Since the beginning of the August, the price of the Oil is declining. Interestingly, since the beginning of the August, USD started the appreciation. So is the decline in the Oil a result of a stronger Dollar? Well, yes and no. Definitely it has an influence there but for example if we look at gold or other commodities we do not see this weakness. There must be something else here.

First of all, let us look at the macro data. What we got this week was Wednesday EIA Crude Oil Stocks change. The number came very bullish. The draw was much bigger than expected and the number of -8.9M should be normally a very good sign for the buyers. It was the largest draw in over a year! What is more, the actual number was lower than the expectations in the last 6 out of 7 weeks. So why the price of the WTI went lower? The answer in this case is the supply. Report showed a rise in gasoline inventories by 22,000 barrels and rise in distillate stockpiles by 702,000 barrels. Not to mention the fact that crude oil production increased to 9.502 million barrels per day. In other words: supply is huge and is still growing.

That is EIA but we also do have an OPEC, which does not have any good idea to stop the price from falling apart from the more jawboning and other verbal interventions. To wrap the fundamentals up, it does not look good for the buyers.

From the technical point of view, the situation is not great either. What we do have here is the breakout of the up trendline (blue), which was later used as a closest resistance. What is more, we went below the 38,2% Fibonacci and used that as a resistance as well. Before that we bounced of the 61,8%, broke the 50% and 48.15 USD/bbl slightly below. Those supports were crashed quite easily, showing a bullish weakness.

The sentiment stays bearish as long as we are below the 48,15 resistance (yellow). Chances for a further downswing are now much bigger than for a rise.

Tomasz Wisniewski
Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

The Alpari brand
Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.

Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

Luckily, YES, there is. All right, so if there is one, your job is to just implement it to your trading and you will become a profitable Wolf of Wall Street. Sounds easy right? That is the beauty of trading. It is really very easy, the thing is to keep it that way. Most of the traders try to complicate it, obviously totally unnecessary. So what is this common thing? Is everybody of them super smart? No. Were they having a huge capital from the very beginning? No. Did everybody go through an ultimate failure (huge stop-out for example)? No.

This is the money management. On this world you have thousands of traders who earn money. Constantly, quarter over quarter, year over year. Their strategies are totally different! I would say that everybody has its own. So is it the strategy that makes them special? No. What is common for them is the money management and the risk control. What they all do is that on the first place they limit the risk and increase the probability of their entries. If they win, they win big, if they loose they loose small. One trade cannot make them or break them.

When they enter the market, they enter with a position size that is carefully calculated and fulfils all the strict requirements that they have in their system. There is absolutely no exceptions from that, whatsoever. By being strict there and by having money management rules you make your head free and you eliminate almost all negative emotions from your trading. You know that you cannot get too aggressive or too scared, you cannot hesitate or go too crazy. That is what makes you a better trader. You become a machine, executing trades flawlessly and pushing forward with your equity line.

One important thing. By having those rules strict, so for example not risking more than 1-2% of your equity on one trade, you allow yourself to have few losses in a row and still be safe with your account. If you will go too aggressive and risk 5% of your equity per trade, after few losses in a row you will start feeling pressure. Believe me, even the best traders have worse periods and they get five or even ten losses in a row. Disciplined trader with money management rules will survive that and come back stronger. Trader without rules will become just a history.

Tomasz Wisniewski
Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

The Alpari brand
Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

If you want to be a trader, you do not need any special set of skills. If you want to be a profitable trader, that changes the situation and then, the certain amount of work is required. Do not worry though. That is totally doable and literally everybody can do it.

First thing is the knowledge itself. Many thing that this is a 70% of the success but in reality it is around 30%. You really do not need to know everything about everything. You do not need a specific, detailed knowledge about the CPI or CCI. No need for that. You will be just fine with the basic from economy and basic understanding of the price movements. You will see by yourself. At the end of the day the simplicity wins here and every professional trader can admit that after years and years of looking for a Holy Grail.

Another thing is discipline. Yes, traders need to be disciplined as soldiers or monks. OK, maybe not this much but as traders you will have to obey rules and do exactly what your system is telling you. There is no other option there and no place for insubordination.

Patience. That is a next one, not less important than the previous ones. Traders wait patiently for the best signal possible. They do not chase the market or open whatever they see. They do a proper market analysis and pick only the best setups from all the charts. After that, they patiently wait for the signal. That is not the end. When in position, they are also patient. They are not distracted by the random movements but patiently wait for the situation to develop. There is no place for unpredictable movements or stupid, rapid decisions. Patience wins the day.

Ability to deal with losses and winnings. Cold head. That is a large part of the most important thing in making profits – traders psychology. Profitable trader is not touched by the loses he makes and is not excited by the winnings either. Good trader knows that losses and wins comes together. He knows that in the long term he can make profits. He knows that losses are small and winnings are big. He knows that only following the system and not getting too excited helps him to earn money. Once you will start to be emotional about money you are done. There is no place for emotions here. If you want to be a good trader, you need to trade like a machine. All you need is to closely analyse charts and flawlessly execute trades. That is all what it takes to be a Pro.

As you can see from this article, there is no magic stuff in becoming a trader, no fireworks. It is just work you have to do in order to make profits. It is all possible and mostly it is up to you if you want it or not. You don’t have to spend extra money or travel to random places. You just need to spent some time on you but it all should be eventually rewarded!

Tomasz Wisniewski
Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

The Alpari brand
Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.

Well, that depends what type of analysis are you using. In trading we can say that they are three type of analysis. Technical, Fundamental and mix of those two. Technical Analysis (TA) is based on the chart analysis. Trader looks at the price changes over time, can use various indicators and with that, he tries to estimate if the price will go up or down. Fundamental Analysis (FA) is focused on the macroeconomic data, geopolitics, finance analysis etc. Mix of those two can have many variations. For example you try to estimate the direction using fundamentals but for the exact entry point, you use technicals.

When you want to use the fundamental analysis, it would be nice to have at least basic knowledge from the economy. From my experience I can tell that it would be also great if you knew the market a little bit better than the average. When you are a trader in New Zealand it would not be a good idea to use fundamental analysis to trade shares on Stock Exchange in Poland. Still possible but much harder than trading shares domestically. Answering the question from the topic: when you want to use FA it would be better to trade instruments that you are familiar with. Companies you know and currencies that are not totally exotic for you.

When you want to use the technical analysis, the whole world of financial instruments is opened for you. Why is that? Well it is because the TA is totally universal and you can use it on the instruments that you did not even heard of, like contracts for the carbon dioxide emission or futures for the orange juice. The only thing that needs to be present is liquidity. The instrument that you want to trade, should be liquid. It means that it should be traded by a large number of investors and huge amount of money should be present there. This is the only condition. Other is done automatically. TA is based on human emotions and repeatable history and those two things are constant.

Around 80% of the daily turnover on the FX market is done on EURUSD. To be honest with you, I do not understand that. I know where is that coming from but in the same time I can tell you that you can make money without even touching this pair. There are so many instruments, which are easier to trade and more rewarding than EURUSD. Do not lock yourself on that pair from the very beginning. Look for alternatives. Scan the market using your strategy and you will see that you can get much better results elsewhere.

Tomasz Wisniewski
Chief Analyst – Alpari Research & Analysis Limited

Alpari Research & Analysis LTD (UK) is a company part of Alpari Brand, which aims to deliver superior market research, analysis and trading education for free both to Alpari’s clients and the general public.

The Alpari brand
Founded in 1998, Alpari is today one of the largest brands on the financial markets. The companies of the brand provide trading and investment services to over one million clients from tens of different countries.
Visit us and learn how Alpari Nigeria can help you achieve more.