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Tag: American democracy

  • 400 days to save American democracy

    400 days to save American democracy

    • By Timothy Garton Ash

    I return to Europe from the US with a clear conclusion: American democrats (lowercase d) have 400 days to start saving US democracy. If next autumn’s midterm elections produce a Congress that begins to constrain Donald Trump there will then be a further 700 days to prepare the peaceful transfer of executive power that alone will secure the future of this republic. Operation Save US Democracy, stages 1 and 2.

    Hysterical hyperbole? I would love to think so. But during seven weeks in the US this summer, I was shaken every day by the speed and executive brutality of President Trump’s assault on what had seemed settled norms of US democracy and by the desperate weakness of resistance to that assault. There’s a growing body of international evidence to suggest that once a liberal democracy has been eroded, it’s very difficult to restore it. Destruction is so much easier than construction.

    That’s why all democrats, irrespective of party or ideology, must hope the Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives in midterm elections on Nov. 3, 2026. Not because of the Democrats’ policies, which are a muddle, or their current leadership, which is a mess, but simply because US democracy needs Congress, the principal check on presidential power envisaged in the US constitution, to start doing its job again. That will not happen so long as the Republicans, dominated and intimidated by Trump, control both houses.

    The US State Department’s annual report praises Kyiv’s fiscal progress and audit independence, even as it warns of a transparency gap in spending.

    Much has been made of comparisons to other authoritarian power grabs, from Europe in the 1930s to Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, but I’m most struck by the distinctive features of the US case. To name just four: excessive executive power; chronic gerrymandering; endemic violence; and the way a would-be authoritarian can exploit the intense capitalist competition that permeates every area of US life.

    The danger of executive overreach has been there from the very beginning. Revolutionary war hero Patrick Henry (“give me liberty or give me death”) voted against the constitution at the Virginia ratifying convention in 1788 precisely because he thought it would give a criminal president the chance “to make one bold push for the American throne.” Throughout the 20th century, presidents of both parties extended the “executive power” that is so ill-defined in article 2 of that constitution. More recently, a conservative-dominated supreme court has given succor to the unitary executive theory developed by rightwing legal theorists, which gives the most expansive reading of presidential power. And now the Trump administration – well prepared, unlike in 2017 – has exploited every inch and wrinkle of existing executive power, as well as simply breaking the law and defying the courts to stop it.

    Tom Ginsburg, a leading US comparative constitutionalist, argues that the biggest single flaw of the unreformed US constitution is that it gives state legislatures the power to draw electoral boundaries. The word gerrymandering was coined as early as 1812. In recent times, partisan redistricting has become more extreme as US politics has become more polarized. And then, in 2019, the supreme court declared that it could not correct even the most blatant party-political gerrymandering (only that done on racial lines). So now, at Trump’s direct request, Texas sets out to change constituency boundaries explicitly to win five more seats for the Republicans in the midterms, whereupon California says it will counter-gerrymander to win five more for the Democrats. There’s no longer even a bare pretence of impartiality about the most basic procedure of democracy.

    No European society can compare to the US for the ubiquity of violence

    Hardly a day passed this summer without the evening news reporting at least one violent crime, including yet another horrific school shooting. The US has more guns than people. France loves its pseudo-revolutionary political theatre, but the US had the Jan. 6, 2021 mob assault on the Capitol. Now the rightwing activist Charlie Kirk has been shot. Before the identity of the killer was known, Elon Musk said “the left is the party of murder” and Trump blamed the hate speech of the “radical left.” It will be a miracle if the US avoids a downward spiral of political violence, as last seen in the 1960s.

    That in turn could be the pretext for Trump to invoke the 1807 Insurrection Act, bring more military on to US streets and further exploit an alleged state of emergency.

    Meanwhile, universities, business leaders, law firms, media platforms and tech supremos have utterly failed to engage in collective action in response. They have either kept their heads down, settled humiliatingly like Columbia University and the law firm Paul, Weiss, or fawned on the president, like Mark Zuckerberg. Why? Because they all follow the logic of fierce free-market competition and fear targeted reprisals. I never imagined I would see fear spread so far and fast in the US.

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    Add in attempts to disqualify or intimidate voters, plus Trump’s threat to ban mail-in ballots, and there’s a real doubt how far next November’s midterm elections will be fully free and fair. The task for democrats of all parties is to ensure they are, so far as possible. The task for the Democrats (capital D) is to win them in spite of any such obstacles.

    The key to that will probably still be bread-and-butter issues. Here, in the economy, lies paradoxical hope. We’re already beginning to see Trump’s tariffs feed through into higher prices. The job numbers are weakening. Trump’s “big beautiful bill” will further increase an already gobsmacking national debt of $37 trillion. Already in the 2024 fiscal year, servicing that debt cost more than the entire $850 billion defense budget. But until a debt crisis actually hits, such macro-risks remain remote and abstract to most voters, rather as predictions of diminished GDP growth made little impact in the Brexit referendum debate.

    So the question is whether the negative economic consequences of Trump will be palpable to ordinary voters before the midterms. One astute political observer suggested to me that Trump, flush with revenue from the new tariffs, could do a pre-election cash handout to voters, perhaps presented as compensation for the “temporary difficulties” of the transition to a MAGA economy. That would be a classic populist move.

    The single most important thing for the Democrats in the next 400 days is therefore to bring those economic costs irresistibly home to voters. Democrats won’t win just by talking about the defense of democracy, important though that is, let alone by engaging in culture wars. They need to follow the advice of former Clinton adviser James Carville and focus relentlessly on kitchen-table issues. In doing so, they will also show that they do actually care about the ordinary working- and middle-class Americans whose support they have lost over the last 30 years.

    Then there’s stage 2, the presidential election in 2028. But sufficient unto the day are the challenges thereof. Despite all the serious threats to democracy itself in the US, for now the first rule of democratic politics still applies: just win the next election.

    • This article was originally published in www.kyivpost.com
  • November 5th: All eyes on American democracy

    November 5th: All eyes on American democracy

    American presidential and congressional/senatorial elections happen on the first Tuesday of November on every election year. This 2024, the 5th of November, just three days away will determine one of the most consequential Presidential elections in United States‘ history. Great as the United States is as seemingly the lone super power, no woman has been elected president. The very first major political party nomination by the Democratic Party was that of Secretary Hilary Clinton in 2016.

    A Hilary Clinton, former first lady, two-time Senator and former American Secretary of State won the popular votes during the 2016 election by more than three million votes but lost through the electoral  college to the Republican nominee and 45th president, Donald. J Trump. Kamala Harris, broke a record in 2020 by being elected the Vice President to President Joe Biden becoming the first woman of South Asian and African heritage to become Vice President in America.

    For the 2024 election, President Joe Biden patriotically handed over the baton to Mdam Vice President, Kamala Harris. A very remarkable historical first that is seen as not just a very selfless act but also a stamp of trust and patriotism for his Vice president and America. A woman of many firsts in her career as a public servant who became the first Asian/African  American to be elected the Attorney General of California and later a Senator of the United States. 

    With the nomination and endorsements from almost all Democrats and some Republicans,  Vice President  Harris came into the Presidential race just a few months to the D-day and is squaring up with former President Trump. The two candidates have kept the global media buzzing as pundits battle with realities and permutations. In 2016, they were wrong after the ballots were counted. A Hilary Clinton, a seasoned lawyer and former Secretary of State lost to the new kid in politics, the businessman, Donald Trump.

    As the world holds its breath as the first female Vice President of America goes against former President Trump, the stakes are too high. This election is like no other in the history of America. America in its global policeman of democracy has never elected a woman despite women getting the right to vote about a hundred years ago.

    The Roundtable Conversation feels that beyond all the hullabaloo about the different electoral value of the various demographics and their ability to swing votes, too many lessons stand out for very unstable democracies in developing countries especially Nigeria. The history of the first Tuesday in November as the election day in America is very profound. It was chosen with the people, who are the mandate givers in a democracy in mind. It was chosen as the freest day that allows the most agrarian population in the 19th century to come out and vote with little inconvenience as regards their leaving their jobs or being impacted by some inclement weather.

    As time went on and occupations diversified and people embraced other non-agrarian occupations, the early voting and mail voting was introduced by law. Today, these kinds of voting bring convenience to every voter in America. Geography and distance is never a disadvantage to any voter. This is an inclusivity that is lacking in the electoral system of Nigeria. The political class in Nigeria seems to have no plans for any form of inclusivity in the Nigerian political space.

    People could give the puerile excuse that Nigeria’s independence is just less than a century old but they forget that the fathers of America laid a very solid foundation that gave power to the people. This merely takes patriotism, humanity and a large heart and not a million years. The Nigerian political class seems less patriotic than the founders of American democracy and writers of their constitution.

    The Nigerian democracy is fashioned after the American model but in some weird way, the political class merely picks and chooses what favours individuals, the male gender, groups and regions. This attitude is the albatross of the Nigerian model of democracy. There is exclusion, there is no ideological identity of the political parties unlike the American model. The Nigerian political parties lack ideological convictions in a way that the late political scientist and former Senate President, Chuba Okadigbo had described the political parties as mere gatherings of people.

    With no strong ideological leanings, the political parties lack character in ways that voters can trust or country thrive from. In fact, there is a huge trust deficit on politicians because they see the political class as selfish and very politically fluid as majority of politicians effortlessly defect from one party to the other depending on the political expediencies they expect. The Republican and Democratic parties in America are easily identifiable by the ideals they are formed on.

    Even though America has never elected a woman president, there is a sizeable representation of women in party leaderships, many women have been elected mayors, governors and to various political offices in ways that is progressive. In Nigeria, the existence of the very vacuous, “Women Wing” of political parties is an eloquent testimony of the subtle and overt sexism that exist in the Nigerian political party system. Somehow the political parties in Nigeria are exclusively run by men and women are offered tokens as “Women Leaders” while there are no “Male Leaders” or Male Wings of political parties. Less than 10% of women win party nominations.

    There is no equity in representation as the youths, women and those living with disabilities always clamor for inclusion. There is also no financial order in the Nigerian political space unlike in America where there is a well monitored financial order in ways that fraudulent financial donations to parties either by corporate bodies or individuals is often monitored and defaulters punished.. Conversely, the Nigerian political system seems to be a ‘winner takes it all’ as individuals with enough money and influence often impact the administeration of the political parties negatively.

    The stability of electoral institutions and dates is one aspect of democracy that Nigeria must try to emulate. More often than not, electoral systems are corrupted by leaders and made unstable. As Americans go to the polls everyone sees how near perfect the system works. There is an impersonal institution that is loyal to the system and not individuals no matter how influential they are in the country. This points very much to Barack Obama’s advice to Africans to build strong institutions rather than strong individuals. Strong institutions are more viable for development as they are more productively enduring than seemingly strong individuals given the mortality effect every human is subject to.

    The American electoral system is very compelling when it comes to individual self-presentations. Candidates put themselves on the public space once they declare their intentions. Winning or losing or even dropping out at the early stages is often almost automatic given the demands of the voters through holding individuals accountable. Candidates are expected to face the voters through various media and town hall platforms during campaigns that even though they still use surrogates, the candidates must be leading. In the Nigerian system, sometimes, the candidates feel the voters don’t matter.

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    The American system gives power to the voters even if there are some missteps sometimes. No human system is perfect but Nigeria can do better with its electoral system. Most times the Nigerian electoral system is so flawed that it is a known fact that Nigeria has some of the most litigious elections in the world with a substantial number of elections often determined by the law courts. In some instances, post-election litigations last years into the tenures of some usurpers of power. In these instances, voters are denied their voices and discontent reigns supreme.

    With each successive American election, the world sees the patriotism in the people. This 2024 presidential election is even more profound as many Republicans are for the first time voting for Vice President Harris based on what they term love of country and loyalty to the constitution. This is possibly a sentiment lacking in most Nigerian politicians as power is often about, personal ego, personalities, regional and ethnic loyalties and even, sadly, religion. These are very divisive sentiments and its not surprising why the country is as underdeveloped as it is divided along ethnic and religious lines.

    The 2024 American election again projects the power of voting demographics. Each candidate will win or lose based on how their policies on the economy, immigration, gender rights/justice, abortion, etc. appeal to voters across America. 64 years after Nigerian independence, politicians still campaign based on the provision of basic infrastructural facilities like electricity, roads and schools. These seem to be the permanent clichés at both state and federal elections.

    While infrastructural development is necessary, most times the campaign promises are mere smokescreens. Successive governments at local, state and federal levels seem to be disloyal to their campaign promises. Sadly, more often than not, such failure on campaign promises do not impact on the chances of most Nigerin politicians to access power at future elections. This speaks to the powerlessness of the electorate in a developing country like Nigeria.

    As the world holds its breath as the clock ticks towards one of the most significant elections in US history, the greatest lesson must be learnt by citizens of Nigeria, one of  the most populous and endowed countries in the world. Adopting the American democracy model must not just be on paper or about the convenient. Profound lessons must be taken away from America not as a perfect system but as a functional system where the rule of law works to hold every citizen to account and where loyalty of individuals is to the nation and not to an individual, state or political party. America is great because the citizens love and work sincerely for their nation and people.

    • The dialogue continues…