The All Progressives Congress (APC) has made history by defeating the ruling Peoples Demoratic Party (PDP) that has run the country since the return to civil rule 16 years ago. The President-elect, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, must now begin the process of translating his vision into reality. In this piece, Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI and Assistant Editor LEKE SALAUDEEN examine the task facing the incoming administration.
ONE of the factors that aided the election of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari and Prof. Yemi Osinbajo of the All Progressives Congress (APC) is the belief that it will not be business as usual from May 29, 2015, under a new government headed by the General. The electioneering campaign threw up a lot of issues on the economy, the security and welfare of Nigerians. Buhari’s position on corruption, insurgency in the Northeast and his vision of building a new Nigeria appear to resonate well with the people.
Beyond rhetoric
But, having been given the mandate by the electorates, the President-elect is expected to move beyond rhetoric and start serious preparations for the tasks ahead. According to analysts, it is important for the incoming government to mobilise Nigerians to close ranks for the task ahead. This is because the election that gave Buhari the mandate is the first one since 1999 that politicians were confronted with the painful realisation that sovereignty belongs to the people, as stipulated in Section 14 (2)(a) of the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended).
Hitherto, the political class only paid lip service to this important provision of the constitution and as such the level of impunity has been very high. There was also a marked absence of internal democracy and so-called party members had no hand in choosing those who represented their parties in elections. As such, the political space was saddled with characters who did not prepare for the task of governance. After taking over the reins of power such characters turn important political positions into kindergarten schools where the valuable four-year mandate is utilized to start learning the ropes of governance.
But, the emergence of the APC as a viable opposition introduced an element of competition into the political arena. Today, the election that gave Gen. Buhari the mandate is widely regarded as the “first” democratic election since the advent of the Fourth Republic. Nigerians believe that their votes have started counting. Naturally, they would not hesitate to kick-out any government that fails to live up to their aspirations in future. This is the reason why it must not be business as usual for the incoming APC government led by Gen. Buhari and Prof. Osinbajo.
Now that the incoming administration is preparing to take over the reins of power on May 29, the onus is on it to begin to translate its visions into reality. Nigeria is currently faced with two critical challenges that have to do with her economic security and the security of the homeland generally. Unlike in the past, the dip in global oil prices and its impact on the country’s revenue profiles is not the only problem the country has to deal with. There is also the tricky situation of market loss – the market for Nigeria’s oil, according to experts in the oil trade, has dried up significantly. In the past, oil prices might fall, but in spite of the shortfall there would still be demand for Nigeria’s oil, and sales. This situation is quite different today because the United States, which used to be the chief importer of Nigeria’s oil, is now awash with her own oil.
Diversification, blockage of leakages
Stakeholders have started setting their own agenda for the incoming administration. For instance, manufacturers and members of the organised private sector have spoken of the need to address the nation’s fiscal outlook through effective implementation of diversification agenda, blockage of fiscal leakages, prioritisation of government’s expenditure to boost investments in critical infrastructure. The above requests, it is hoped, will help to create an enabling environment for businesses to thrive.
Besides, the stakeholders have emphasised the need to increase the momentum of the war on terrorism and insurgency, following the effects of such acts on business activities, while also enhancing a level-playing field for all investors across all sectors with regard to import tariffs, funding opportunities, and tax incentives.
The President of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), Dr. Frank Jacobs, said it is incumbent on the incoming administration to embrace and sustain policies that aid the industrialisation of the country. He said: “The incoming government should set on whatever good policy the outgoing administration had put in place, especially in the area of trying to diversify the economy. This is particularly important now that we are having challenges with the price of crude oil in the international market.
“The outgoing government has come with the National Industrial Revolution Plan (NIRP) which is a very good policy that has been put together by the public and the private sector. The incoming government should sustain that effort and implement policies in a way that will help empower manufacturers. We have to recognise the importance of manufacturers in generating employment and other issues that affect this country. Therefore the issue of manufacturers’ empowerment should be given attention so that they would be able to address the problem of employment in the country.”
The priority of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) is for the incoming administration to address fundamentals like the high cost of doing business and low productivity, which could be ascribed to macroeconomic factors, institutional challenges and structural issues. The chamber said in a communique: “The plummeting oil price and the impact on the fiscal outlook present a significant challenge to the incoming administration. It is therefore critical to manage expectations at this time. The outlook for many macroeconomic indicators is not bright with foreign reserves dropping below $30 billion and persistent pressure on the naira exchange rate.”
On industry intervention, the LCCI stated that investment incentives should be of universal application to all investors in a given sector. According to the communiqué, “The incoming administration should improve the scope and depth of financial intermediation for the benefit of all investors, irrespective of size. Guidelines for accessing intervention funds should also be reviewed and made less stringent.
“They need to ensure a level playing field for all investors across all sectors with regard to import tariffs, funding opportunities, tax incentives, among others, ensure the sustainability of selected policies and programmes of the present administration which currently offer value to the economy and ensure robust consultation with the private sector bodies for inputs into policy formulation processes.”
Nigerians must close ranks
Given the array of problems facing the country, there is a consensus among observers that the incoming administration must assemble the best brains, irrespective of political party affiliation, to give the country a new direction. Respondents may have put it in different ways, but the consensus is that Nigerians must close ranks for the task ahead.
As a civil society activist and President of Nigeria Voters Assembly (VOTAS), Comrade Mashood Erubami, aptly puts it, “the clamour for Buhari as the catalyst for real change is not an end but a means to achieving a better end of democratic consolidation for a new dawn in the life of Nigerians.” Therefore, he said Buhari must commit himself to building on the legacy of global democratic order, by ensuring that the constitution of the new government is just, fair, people driven.
The civil society activist wants Buhari to set up a “multi stakeholdership government” that will invigorate the already weak naira, boost the morale of Nigerians who are victims of the 16 years of unimpressive governance of the PDP.
His words: “The election of Buhari has thrown up a new phase of politics in Nigeria which must be accompanied by new style of governance that considers the concrete reality of mass unemployment of youths and productive adults, lack of electricity, scarcity of fuel and bad governance.
“By choosing him, the electorates believe that, given his pedigree and antecedents, Buhari possess superior capacity to manage the economy and that he will not give spurious excuses for failing. Having been giving the chance, he should set up an innovative ‘multi-stakeholdership government’ as interface programme to bring about the much-desired change in the country, so that Nigerians can end the years of misery and hunger in the midst of plenty.”
Anti-corruption crusade
Besides, the issue of corruption was put on the front burner during the campaign for the last presidential election and Gen. Buhari presented himself to Nigerians as an anti-corruption czar who has the magic wand to curb the growing menace within the ranks of those in the corridors of power.
Indeed, from the perspective of the Southeast Secretary of Campaign for Democracy (CD), Dr. Jerry Chukwuokolo, the dilemma facing Buhari is how he would curb corruption within the ranks of top APC functionaries who are going to play significant roles in the administration. Chukwuokolo warned Buhari to tread cautiously, saying that in history those who come in amidst the kind of high expectations that aided his election usually fail his people. “This is because the expectations are so high and there is no way he can meet up to that level of expectation.”
In Erubami’s view, what Nigerians want to be topmost on the anti-corruption agenda of the Buhari administration will be the formation of a government standing on a tripod of fairness, human rights and social justice. The civil society activist said it would be imperative to evolve new policies that would bring about discipline and ethics in government and private practices, in line with his “War Against Indiscipline (WAI)” of the 1984/1985 military regime.
He said: “This new WAI should be directed at changing the general attitude in the social, economic, political realm and environmental aptitude towards ensuring that people move to the attitude of change. Citizens should still be re-assured that Gen. Buhari will never run a unilateral government nor will he be vindictive, instead he should take the country along with Nigerians on the path of recovery, genuine change and progress.
“These programmes should serve as the new foundation on which the creation of employment, power generation governmental ethics and socio, political discipline will be erected. With the new Charter of Human and Socio-economic and Political Rights of the APC, it is certain that the new administration under Gen. Buhari will not espouse a ‘winner-take-all’ policy; his government will represent the interest of all regardless of their political affiliation, sex and ethnicity.
“Instead of concentrating efforts on arresting, prosecuting and sentencing corrupt elements in the past government, leaving no time for constructive governance, the Buhari government should be pre-occupied with how the country’s loan profile to be inherited will be defrayed without affecting the capacity to stabilise foreign reserve for emergencies arising from unforeseen socio-economic challenges.”
National integration
On insecurity, Chukwuokolo said Buhari should work towards national integration, by trying to instill the spirit of nationalism in Nigerians. He said: “Whether we like it or not, this country is very much divided today. The issue of re-integration is very important. This is because I don’t see the reason why an Igbo man in Kano has to run away because an election is coming up and thereby he is disenfranchised.”
Civil rights activist Mr. Osita Kelechi said the incoming administration must give priority to security. He said the insecurity in the country has restricted movement from one part of the country to the other. “In a situation where goods and services are restricted because of fear of safety does not augur well for the overall development of the nation,” he said.
On the economy, Chukwuokolo said the incoming President should be disciplined enough to hire those who would help him reposition the economy. “The first step is to work towards having a stable power supply in the country. One fact no one can refute is that the Jonathan administration has laid a solid foundation for stable power supply in Nigeria. What Buhari needs to do is to build on Jonathan’ power sector reforms,” he said.
In the view of a finance and investment consultant, Mr. Akintunde Maberu, the incoming administration needs to look at those things that have constituted an obstacle that has prevented Nigeria from having stable power supply. He said the desire for a progressive government has been long and arduous. He added: “So, there are quite a number of things that Nigerians have been yearning for, which they would expect under the new government. Education is key. Education is one of the programmes emphasized in the APC manifesto. In the manifesto, the party has promised to provide free and qualitative education from primary to secondary school level.”
Maberu also wants the government must look into the policies of the developed world in the area of healthcare, particularly that of Britain and adopt the welfare system that will enable Nigerians to have access to cheap but qualitative healthcare facilities. “The government should also strive to build infrastructure in the healthcare sector that will make it unnecessary for Nigerians to go abroad for treatment,” he noted.
On the economy, he said it is imperative for the incoming APC government to open up other sectors of the economy, especially agriculture and solid minerals.
Renowned economist Henry Boyo said the problem with the Nigerian economy lies with faulty monetary framework. He said there is urgent need for a fundamental restructuring of the country’s monetary framework. “So that our economy can be rapidly transformed to induce vast expansion in industrial activity with single digit lending rates, increase employment opportunities, lower single digit of inflation and a market determined mechanism. The government’s efforts to achieve these parameters, reduce poverty and enhance the social welfare of our people in the last 30 years have evidently failed woefully,” he explained.
Boyo added: “Indeed our economy appears trapped in a paradox of deepening poverty with increasing export revenue. It is inexplicable, for example, that Nigeria became listed among the poorest nations of the world. A careful analysis of the process infusion of our export earnings into the economy will show that this anomaly was made inevitable by the Central Bank’s practice of capturing export dollar revenue and substituting naira at its unilaterally determined rate of exchange before payment of consolidated naira allocations to the three tiers of government.”
Creation of job opportunities
On how the economy could be propelled to create job opportunities, Boyo said: “the stronger naira exchange will bring down the cost of imported raw materials and machinery, and this together with low interest rates will energise the industrial and services sub-sector, and reduce unemployment and greater consumer demand. The local manufacturers will also be protected by a discriminatory tariff regime to favour patronage of locally produced goods in place of imports.
“Increased commercial and industrial activities will provide a huge revenue base for government taxes. More workers will inevitably mean more income tax revenue for both state and federal government agencies. The stronger naira will not only bring down the cost of production, but will also reduce annual inflation to not more than two per cent, and consequently increase the purchasing power of low income group.
“The increased job opportunities will increase employment and engender a conducive environment that will reduce strikes and other work stoppages. The enhanced economic growth and improvement in social welfare with increased purchasing power brought about by a stronger naira will begin to reverse the deadly infection of brain drain, as Nigerians in the Diaspora will return home to make valuable contributions and enjoy better life in their fatherland.
Erubami said the APC government under the Buhari should be concerned with how to use fiscal and monetary regulatory policies to stabilise and mitigate the volatility of the country’s currency in exchange for other foreign currencies and notwithstanding the currently dwindling revenue, more monies should be generated to reflate the economy and bring about good welfare.
He said: “Above all, substantial fund should be derived from blockages of prodigal spendings on frivolity, unnecessary celebrations and aimless interventions either internally or outside the country to be deployed into the building of useful and functional infrastructures and other sustainable human development projects for the comfort and welfare of the people.”
The VOTAS President wants the incoming President to initiate efforts to stamp out Boko Haram for all time and create conducive environment for healthy living and sustainable industrialisation, which would lead to massive employment for the teeming unemployed youths and adults.
He added: “He should provide adequate power and energy to power the nation and empower the citizens. These will provide energy for the industry and power to generate gainful employment, reviving and transforming the economy through heavy investment in agriculture, tourism, manufacturing and infrastructural development, so as to set strong foundation for general development through standard, qualitative and functional education for all.
“Corruption should be fought seriously, using the House of Representative report on oil subsidy as a head start to send right signals to culprits mentioned in the House Ad-hoc committee investigation as signs that he is ready to fight corruption.
“Nigerians need a leader as Buhari, a person with honour, dignity and selfless passion for public service delivery to humanity, a courageous, committed and knowledgeable individual with quality and strong leadership imbued with character of integrity who is sincere and loyal to his country.”
The VOTAS President is also of the view that the incoming President should also initiate new electoral reforms strategy that will revisit the Uwais report, “as first rung on the ladder of institutionalisation of democracy and good governance.”
Long-term solution
In the long term, Nigerians expect the incoming administration to work towards restructuring or discentralising governance, resource control and fiscal federalism and reducing the cost of governance. Experts say the incoming administration must revisit the issue of resource control and fiscal federalism, and ensure that more money is allocated to the states, if it wants to bring out about the desired change. Resource control has remained contentious issue since the return of civil rule. Before independence, the colonial government, with the consent of the regional governments appointed the Fiscal Commission to look into the functions and powers of the legislative and determine the percentage of revenue the regional government will need to carry out their functions and the percentage that will go to the Federal Government. That was how government at independence up to the time of Murtala/Obasanjo followed the fixed constitutional formula of 20 per cent to the Federal Government, 50 per cent to state of origin and the remaining 30 per cent to distributive pool to be shared among the regions or states was established. But, today, the Federal Government takes 54 per cent.
Former Minister of Works and Housing, Alhaji Femi Okunnu could not understand why the Federal Government’s share of the Federation Account should jump from 20 per cent to 54 per cent when the functions of the states are getting bigger. He suggested that the Federal Government should go down to 25 per cent if not 20 per cent as before; state of origin at least 25 per cent if not 35 per cent and the remainder should go into distributive pool.
Okunnu is of the view that the present sharing formula is not fair to the oil-producing states. He said: “The retention of 13 per cent of the profit from the sales of petroleum and agricultural products to state of origin under the 1999 Constitution is grossly unfair to the states of origin of minerals and agricultural products. There are minerals in different parts of Nigeria, which are yet to be tapped.”
The elder statesman bemoaned the neglect of agriculture. He added: “We see no more of Kano groundnut pyramids and cotton. No more huge production of palm oil and palm kernels where Nigeria led in the production as number one and three in the world 40 years ago. We have reduced ourselves to marginal world production of cocoa, timber and rubber.”
