The general elections will hold between February 16 and March 2. Major political parties have started canvassing for votes across the country. LEKE SALAUDEEN examines the issues that will shape the outcome of the polls.
This is a critical election year. It is the sixth election since the inception of the Fourth Republic. According to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) time table, the presidential and National Assembly elections are scheduled to hold on February 16, 2019 while the governorship and State Houses of Assembly polls would come up on March 2, 2019.
Campaigns have started in earnest, following the lifting of ban on political activities by INEC. It has been peaceful so far. It is hoped that the peaceful atmosphere will be sustained throughout. The international community has shown interest in the elections through financial and material support for the electoral body. President Muhammadu Buhari has assured that the polls will be free, fair and credible.
The presidential election will be a straight fight between President Buhari, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Atiku Abubakar, the standard bearer of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Although there are many presidential candidates, but the two candidates and their parties are dominant. They have political structure across the country; they have the wherewithal, human and material resources to prosecute the presidential contest. According to analysts, the other presidential candidates are seeking for attention; they are not strong to contest for the highest office in the land. They said some of them should have settled for senatorial or House of Representatives tickets. Besides, they are contesting on the platform of fringe parties. These parties will go to sleep immediately after the general election; they will resurrect in 2023 when another general elections would hold.
A political analyst, Dr Earnest Ibok, believes that the emergence of two Fulani Muslim candidates from the two dominant parties would stabilise the polity. According to him, the results of the election will not trigger crisis as it used to be in previous elections when two major candidates come from North and South. He cited the case of 2003 presidential election which, he said, was Buhari versus Obasanjo; Muslim versus Christian; North versus South and Fulani versus Yoruba. “The election was preceded by the controversies over the introduction of the criminal jurisdiction of Sharia in 12 northern states. Obasanjo kicked against it while Buhari supported it saying it was the right of every Muslim. Buhari’s position endeared him to northern Muslims. Obasanjo lost core northern states he had won comfortably in 1999. Buhari did not score 25 per cent in any of the southern states because he was seen as agent of Islamisation. However, Obasanjo was considered an “infidel” by the northern Muslims.
“In 2007, the election was between two sons of Katsina State, Alhaji Musa Yar’Adua and Buhari as well as Atiku. They were of the same ethnic, religion and region. There were no divisive sentiments used by politicians to garner support. There was no uproar after the election won by Yar’Adua. But unfortunately the death of Yar’Adua which returned power to the South led to a resurgence of political insability. Jonathan who completed Yar’Adua’s tenure wanted a second term which was vehemently opposed by the northerners Although Jonathan won the 2011 presidential election against Buhari, the candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), the aftermath was devastating. It was a roubled tenure for Jonathan. The polity was irrevocably poisoned and remained so till 2015 when he was voted by Buhari who contested on the platform of APC.
“My submission is that whoever wins the 2019 presidential election between Buhari and Atiku, there would be no crisis. The north would be contended. Similarly in 2023, if the power shifts to the South where all political parties are expected to pick their presidential candidates, there would be less acrimony, the fear of regional domination and religious hegimony would have been eliminated. Thus, there would be political stability”.
The preparation by INEC is crucial to the conduct of free, fair and credible election. The electoral commission has been improving from one election to the other in the areas of prompt arrival of election materials and electoral officers at the polling units, vote counting in the presence of voters and display of results at the polling units as witnessed in Anambra, Edo, Ondo, Ekiti and Osun governorship elections. But opposition parties are not convinced that INEC is fully prepared for the 2019 poll. They premised their argument on late approval of INEC budget few months to the election and the problem of card reader malfunctioning. But the commission said there was no cause for alarm, it was on course with the time table for the election.
But, INEC National Commissioner and Chairman of Information and Voter Education Committee, Mr Festus Okoye, said that the electoral body is focused on delivering credible election this year. The electoral commissioner said the processes and procedure had been rolled out for the 2019 elections.
On the issue of funding, he said INEC is proceeding with preparations for the conduct of the 2019 general elections. “The commission is working and consulting with relevant government agencies to make sure that funds do not hamper its preparations for the poll. The commission is determined to conduct good elections and will not allow funding gaps to derail its preparation.”
Okoye assured Nigerians that all its processes are being deployed to ensure that all procurements are completed on time for the 2019 elections. According to him, the electoral body has introduced far reaching and creative innovations that would raise the bar of elections in Nigeria. He explained that the management and arrangement of the polling units are being reappraised to guarantee and maintain the secrecy of the vote and maintain the independence and personal voting choices of the voters.
On whether the commission will use the smart card reader in 2019 elections, the INEC Commissioner recalled that the commission introduced the smart card reader as a quality control mechanism to strengthen the authentication and verification of the Permanent Voters’ Cards (PVC) and eliminate ghost voters and multiple voting. He said the card reader is being improved on to enhance its performance and minimise as much as possible hitches that occurred in few places in previous elections. The smart card reader has come to stay; Nigerians have accepted it as part of the electoral process and INEC is determined to sustain improvements on it, he added.
Vote buying is becoming an accepted norm. The brazen act of vote buying was reported during the recently held Ekiti and Osun governorship elections. It violates the 2010 Electoral Act Article 130 which stipulates : “A person who (a) corruptly by himself or by any other person at any time after the date of an election has been announced , directly or indirectly gives or provides or pays money to or for any other person for the purpose of corruptly influencing that person or any other person to vote or refrain from voting at such election or on account of such person or any other person having voted or refrained from voting at such election, or (b) being a voter, corruptly accepts or takes money or any other inducement during any of the period stated in paragraph (a) of the section, commits an offence and is liable on conviction to a fine of N100,000 or 12 months imprisonment or both.
A lawyer and President, Voters Awareness Initiative, Mr Wale Ogunade alleged that politicians took vote buying in the Ekiti governorship election to a higher dimension. He said while previous acts of vote buying were done in secret, it was done openly during the Ekiti State governorship election, saying that the rising phenomenon of vote-buying during elections calls for deep concern.
Ogunade said: “Vote buying is not a new phenomenon in the country. Before now, we have had it in Anambra State and before Anambra State, we had it in Edo State. But before the elections in Edo and Anambra States, it had always been done strictly-like stuffing naira notes inside loaves of bread or giving out food items and clothes –all with the intention of wooing voters against their conscience to vote for them. But no doubt, the Ekiti election took vote buying to a higher dimension. It has now opened it up because it was done with reckless abandon.”
INEC Chairman Professor Mahmoud Yakubu admitted that vote-buying was already rebranding the nation’s democracy before the international community. He said: “We are witnessing an ugly trend of vote-buying in recent elections. This is giving our democracy a bad name. There is difference between democracy, the government of the people made by the people and for the people, and plutocracy, which is government of the rich.
Yakubu said the commission would enforce the provisions of the Electoral Act that prohibited vote-buying in 2019 as it did during the Osun State governorship election. According to him, those that were caught in Osun have been charged to court. He said the offender is liable to N500,000 fine or twelve months imprisonment or both. For those selling or buying PVC, the penalty is N500,000fine or imprisonment not less than two years.
He said government has proposed a bill to establish election tribunal which will handle cases of electoral offences whether the elections are ongoing or not. He said having such tribunal would facilitate quick dispensation of justice.
Thuggery is now common at the electioneering campaign. The unruly behaviour of some people had disturbed candidates from presenting their programmes to the electorate. Recently, the Senate President Bukola Saraki campaign at Iloin, Kwara State capital was marred by some people among the crowd who were not ready to listen to him. Saraki had to cut it short and left the scene. Every Nigerian seeking political position has the right to canvass for votes anywhere in the country. Leaders of political parties should rein in their supporters to always give peace a chance
Another ugly trend of political intolerance is the removal of posters over night by thugs allegedly sponsored by their principals. Some governors had through their mobile advert agencies refused opponents to erect bill boards. This is not good for democracy. Every candidate should have access to public space.
APC and PDP were hit by defections, especially in the National Assembly. Members of the PDP, who defected to APC in 2014, have returned to their former party. Among them are Saraki, Speaker, House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara and many other legislators. Some senators like the Minority Leader in the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio dumped PDP for APC.
Analysts say the defection will alter the result of 2019 elections. They are of the view that the APC that performed woefully in the South- South and South East is likely to make some in-roads in the region. It has also been predicted that APC may lose few states especially where the post-primaries crises are yet to be resolved.
Some governors would complete their second term in May 2019. They will not seek re-election because of the constitution limitation. They include Governors Abiola Ajimobi of Oyo State, Ibikunle Amosun (Ogun), Kashim Shettima (Borno), Ibrahim Dankwabo (Gombe), Ibrahim Geidam(Yobe) and AbduFatah Ahmed (Kwara).