The biggest challenge confronting the All Progressives Congress (APC) as it chooses it presidential flagbearer is not the number or quality of those who have put themselves forward.
If anything, all with the exception of entrepreneur and newspaper publisher, Sam Nda-Iasiah, have some sort of experience at very high levels of government to brandish as qualification for seeking the top job.
The real headache is that everyone of the aspirants has some form of baggage that the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) will gleefully exploit – diverting attention from Jonathan’s terrible record in office.
Take former Head of State, Muhammadu Buhari. He is ordinarily an electoral powerhouse. In 2011, he did the near impossible by garnering 12 million votes on the platform of a political party that was just a few months old. What that proved is that the sheer force of his personality could deliver irrespective of the platform on which he runs.
But I have argued in the past that this very strength – in particular his cult-like following in the north, eventually became his Achilles Heel – as his strategists were misled into thinking he didn’t need an electoral leg down south to help him to power. In the end, he swept the north but was undone in the South-West when Jonathan won the zone with the exception of Osun State taken by Nuhu Ribadu then flying the flag of the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN).
Were he to emerge the candidate of APC, he would be running on a better structured platform with strength on both sides of the Niger. A strategy that targets that the votes haul from the North West, North East and South West – with small pickings elsewhere could put him within touching distance of a prize he has coveted all these years.
The ruling PDP realise the potency of a Buhari candidacy and have begun undermining it even before it becomes reality – and there’s the rub for the APC. With the general on the ticket, the campaign will not be about Jonathan’s management of the economy or his failure to combat the raging insurgency in the North-East, it will be turned around to focus on the General’s record as a military head of state as well as his position on religious issues.
We will be reminded that his regime authored the infamous Decree 4 which the military reined in Nigeria’s famously free-wheeling press. It wouldn’t matter that in 2015 voters are not being asked to elect a new military junta.
The attempt to paint the khaki-clad Buhari of 1984 as the same as the agbada-wearing presidential aspirant of 2014 is one of the enduring lies of the emerging campaign. His opponents will not admit that as president he will not have the same powers he wielded 30 years ago. He cannot pass any budget or bill by fiat and would have to deal with a National Assembly whose complexity we cannot fathom now.
As another ex-military ruler, General Olusegun Obasanjo, found out to his chagrin after his Third Term project bit the dust, there are times when this much-maligned body can prove to be an effective bulwark against would-be despots. There’s no reason to think that the constitution would be amended in 2015 to accommodate any autocratic streak in Buhari.
Even his much-vaunted desire to stop corruption in its tracks could get a reality check in that same National Assembly. People forget that one of the first bills Obasanjo sent to the legislature in 1999 was a stern anti-corruption bill fashioned after similar laws in Singapore. But by the time Abuja lawmakers finished with it what was sent back to the then president was a limp and near-useless legislation whose impotence is confirmed by the depth of sleaze in the country 15 years after.
Other issues that will come to dog a Buhari campaign will include the retroactive execution of the convicted drug pushers, the controversial clearance for 53 suitcases to be allowed into the country at a time when the country’s borders were shut to allow for currency reforms.
We will be told not to forget that the General once professed a love for Sharia – so much so that he would have loved for it to apply throughout the country.
And let’s not forget the incendiary comments made by the ex-CPC presidential candidate after it became clear that his ambitions had bitten the dust four years ago. His embittered supporters took to the streets to vent their frustration with fatal consequences for many National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) members who had serviced as electoral officers for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
He may have distanced himself from the acts of violence, but his opponents would still seek to embarrass him and damage his candidacy on the altar of vicarious responsibility.
This brings us to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. Again, we are confronted with another political giant who through a series of wrong choices undercut his own relevance in national power calculations. We cannot forget in a hurry that at the end of Obasanjo’s first term Atiku controlled the PDP and the then president had to virtually go on bended knees to secure his backing and that of governors loyal to the then VP to clear the way for a second tenure.
Frustrated out of the ruling party by Obasanjo, his ill-fated presidential run on the ACN ticket and his return to the party he had spurned and excoriated in the bitter days before the 2007 polls, and now his presence in APC, makes it all too easy for those who will paint a caricature of a desperate politician.
Many acknowledge his virtues as a mobiliser who understands Nigerian politics. His deep pockets would make him an asset for a party like APC which could find itself challenged in the money stakes against the ruling party.
Interestingly, in his campaigning so far, Atiku has tried to talk about issues and advance policy positions he would like to pursue as president. All that elevated politicking would disappear in a puff of smoke the moment he emerges APC candidate because the PDP, again constrained to shift attention away from Jonathan’s record, would dredge up the former Vice President’s many controversies.
We would be reminded of the American Congressman William Jefferson’s saga as well as questions about Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) and sundry matters. From now till Election Day, Atiku would be defending and explaining himself against real and imagined charges in the court of public opinion.
I will not dwell much on Kano State Governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Nda-Isaiah because whatever baggage they come with is linked to fact that their appeal is limited across the country. The PDP would be quite happy to dismiss them as provincial – never mind the fact that Jonathan and his erstwhile boss, the late Umaru Yar’Adua, could have been described in those terms at the point they assumed office in Aso Rock.
Much of the handwringing within APC has focused on how much ammunition its aspirants have laid out for PDP attack dogs to play with.
But this ignores the fact that Jonathan, the ruling party’s candidate, has baggage that would finish off any candidate in different clime. Compared to his, United States President Barack Obama’s issues were child play, and yet American voters punished him and his party at last Tuesday’s congressional elections by handing power to the Republicans.
If APC’s candidates have things they have to explain, then Jonathan finds himself in a similar quandary ten times over. On the economic front it is impossible to say that Nigerians are better off economically than they were in 2011. The recent collapse in power generation is an embarrassing enough statistic for a ruling party that has promised light since 1999, but only succeeded in delivering darkness.
In the 70s the British Tory Party produced an electoral poster showing a serpentine queue of the unemployed waiting to be interviewed for a few job openings. The pay-off line was ‘Labour Isn’t Working.’ It was devastating. The inimitable Margaret Thatcher was swept into 10 Downing Street on the cusp of the landslide.
Today, Jonathan’s stewardship in the area of unemployment can be captured just as succinctly with those photographs of an Abuja National Stadium packed to overflowing with desperate applicants seeking employment in the Nigerian Immigration Service.
The exercise ultimately ended tragically with over 19 persons killed nationwide. Such is the contempt that the government has for public opinion that those like the Interior Minister, Abba Moro, who presided over that fiasco are sitting comfortably in their offices till date.
To say that the administration has been scandal-scarred is to state the obvious. The nation still awaits the results of the forensic audit triggered by allegations made by the former Central Bank Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, that the NNPC had failed to remit billions of naira to the Federation Account.
Petroleum Minister, Diezani Allison-Madueke and erstwhile Aviation Minister, Stella Oduah, hugged the headlines for months over allegations of sleaze. While the former continues to fight to stop the House of Representatives from probing allegations that she spent a fortune hiring a private jet, the latter did the ‘needful’ by throwing in the towel when the heat became too much.
But the government’s reputation totally went down the tubes with the botched attempt by its agents to smuggle $9.3 million into South Africa in a private jet in a bizarre arms shopping trip. While it was still trying to contain the first mess, it emerged that a second seizure had been made by the South Africans – bringing the total to $15 million.
But perhaps the greatest failure of the Jonathan administration is its inability to end the insurgency in the North East. Today, the insurgents have carved out a caliphate the size of three states in that region. Those who predicted that country would break up in 2015 are inching closer to seeing that dire prophecy become reality.
A break-up isn’t only when we are scattered in many pieces. Today’s reality is that unless the gains of the insurgents are quickly reversed the map of Nigeria handed to Jonathan in 2011 would be different from that he would hand to a successor next year.
Today, Nigeria is more polarised along sectional and religious lines than at any time in its history. We are seeing a government and ruling party that has shown every readiness to use religion to divide the country in order to rule over it.
Tragically, the diabolical efforts of the ruling party’s hacks have produced a situation where many voters have already made their decision on who they would vote for simply on account of his religious identification. That shows how much progress we are making.
APC should stop searching for the perfect candidate. That creature doesn’t exist on the face of the earth. At any given time aspirants come with baggage. The answer is not to flee from a candidate because of baggage, but to see whether what he brings to the table is greater than his negatives.
The party must decide whether a Buhari who’s a vote magnet up north should be dumped just because of his controversial past. Will it do better with a ‘safe’ candidate who doesn’t offend sensibilities but cannot galvanise the supporter base the way the General can? The same can be said about Atiku. Should he be passed over despite what he brings to the party just because opponents would call him names? It’s a no-brainer.
