When lawmakers in the House of Representatives began to defect to the main opposition All Progressives Congress (APC), it was widely expected, or perhaps speculated, that the Speaker, Aminu Tambuwal, would soon enact his own spectacular crossing. He has not burnt his bridges yet. In view of the fact that the opposition now controls the lower chamber, and the ruling PDP has lost control of that chamber, the speculations have continued to rage. Fearful that the PDP could lose control of the Senate, thereby compounding the political tragedy gnawing at the soul of the ruling party, the Jonathan presidency and forces favourable to Senate president David Mark have advanced stories indicating that the seats of defecting senators would be declared vacant. It is not quite certain that those stories are official.
But it is at least clear that the takeover of the Senate, as is being plotted by the opposition, would not be as easy as that of the House of Representatives. And, apparently, it would not matter whether Senator Mark and his forces are on the right side of the constitution. They will defend their turf as brutally as President Jonathan defends his presidency – with single-minded unconstitutionality, if necessary. The resolve of the ruling party in the Senate is, therefore, likely to dampen the enthusiasm of the APC senators. In the House of Representatives, any attempt to declare any seat vacant in a legislature already fallen into the hands of the ‘enemy,’ will flounder very badly. In view of the political dynamics in the Senate, and the foul mood of the Jonathan presidency, it is important for the opposition to modify tactics by getting potential defectors to act like defectors without actually defecting – at least until the time is right.
Given the mood in the Senate and the predilection of the Jonathan presidency, it is expected that Alhaji Tambuwal might want to re-examine his options, if indeed he ever meant the story of his defection to be taken at more than face value. It is already known his heart and soul belong to the APC. Would it be necessary to defect before he could advance and protect the interests of the opposition? With him standing pat in the PDP and keeping the office of Speaker, defectors would not only have a fair deal, they would even flourish. In addition, it would not only be unwise for an APC majority to move against him, should he choose to stay in the PDP, it would be unnecessary and counter-productive. An APC move against the Speaker is unlikely to ever happen. The Speaker may allow the speculations about his intentions to continue, but neither he nor the APC should think anything of it; for the Speaker is as sure of his constituency’s support as he is sure of securing a majority anytime a vote is forced on the floor of the legislature.
The problem, therefore, is the Senate, where top legislators are speaking at cross-purposes, and many of us are unsure whether the stories and threats they issue are real or contrived. Since this column is in favour of all legitimate moves to whittle down the power and influence of the PDP and also ensure Dr Jonathan is unelectable in 2015, it will offer unsolicited advice to the opposition. The opposition must recognise that they can only second-guess the reactions of the PDP Senate and the Jonathan presidency with a limited amount of certainty. Nothing is sure, especially in the light of the desperation of the ruling party and its fear that it could go into the 2015 general elections greatly hobbled. Even with its control of the Senate and the security agencies, its chances of retaining power is less than sure. Knowing full well that it would be a nightmare for the party to go into the next polls with the Senate in the hands of the opposition, especially after the House of Representatives had been lost irretrievably, the ruling party would fight tooth and nail to ensure that that should never happen.
The best option for the APC is to assume that the Senate’s top leaders and the presidency would fight rough in order to maintain control of the upper house. If a fight ensues, as every statistician knows, the chances of winning and losing are even. If an already crippled ruling party enters the fight disadvantaged, a 50 percent chance is a good outcome for them. On the other hand, a 50 percent chance for the APC, which is on a high at the moment and is even feeling triumphant already, is not good enough. And what is the use of a frontal attack on the ruling party in the Senate when the opposition can engage in feints and intrigues whose outcomes can be salutary? Since the intended defectors are known, the APC should let them stay in the PDP, in body of course, while their hearts and souls are claimed by the opposition. This tactic will work because in every vote called on the floor of the Senate, the potential defectors will frustrate the PDP and short-circuit the ruling party’s plans.
I admit that if the defections are carried through it would be a morale booster for the opposition and a dampener for the PDP. But the APC need not be carried away by the aesthetics of politics. Every move it makes, and every scheme it engages in, must serve the purpose of winning the next polls, rather than painting the party in a boisterous and effervescent mould. The party already has seemingly insurmountable problems of forging a fit, united, fairly ideological and victorious army out of the disparate and cantankerous defectors it had welcomed into its fold. That task will not be easy, for long-standing party members will resent the presence of more aggressive and opportunistic newcomers. Such a daunting problem should therefore not be allowed to be compounded by a distracting war in the Senate over defectors whose seats the forceful chicaneries of the Senate leadership and a vindictive presidency could make untenable.
This is why I also suggest that Speaker Tambuwal should, in cognizance of political realism over political aesthetics, remain for now in the PDP and offer defectors in the lower chamber genuine cover. The run-up to Poll 2015 will see bitter and sanguinary battles for the control of the physical and spiritual manifestations of the levers of power. The APC should avoid being entangled in needless controversies and displays. It must unite its warring groups, new and old, forge a credible and winnable platform, avoid the Machiavelian entrapment the ruling party will weave along its path, for they are no pushovers themselves, and ensure that even if it kills them they manage to give the country a presidential ticket that is indisputably a winner.
The next one year or so will be the most stressful and harrowing for the opposition; it should rise to the occasion with purpose and determination. But that time will also be the most nightmarish for the ruling party, and the country must hope it cannot rise to the occasion. For, as all of us know, and as I indicated in this place last week, only change can save the country. Continuity is definitely not an option, not with the despicable and divisive use of sectarian politics now embarked upon by the PDP.
