Therever there is war, you’ll find a steady stream of refugees fleeing the conflict zone. No surprise then that the infighting within the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) threatens to unleash a flood of displaced politicians seeking refuge with whatever resembles a credible alternative platform.
In the real world playing host to refugees can be nightmarish for whoever is at the receiving end. Sometimes communities and countries fearful that the newly homeless could overwhelm them have been known to slam the door in the faces of the desperate rabble. But no such misery awaits Nigeria’s burgeoning breed of political flotsam.
Unlike the wretched of the earth to be found in war zones from Syria to Afghanistan, those on the verge of walking out of, or being kicked out of the PDP, can look forward to a warm embrace from a string of opposition parties.
A few days ago the All Progressives Congress (APC) announced that not only was it willing to accommodate the disaffected PDP members, it mandated its own governors to woo their colleagues.
The newly-registered Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) was ecstatic in hailing the rebellion on the very day it played out on Eagle Square, Abuja. It, too, would gladly welcome the G7 in its ranks.
That the disgruntled PDP governors have so many suitors is understandable. The ability of incumbents to swing political fortunes in whatever direction they decide is far more assured at state level than at national level.
Indeed, it is the recognition of that gubernatorial influence which triggered the desperate, but ultimately shambolic attempt to install a pliant person who will dance to the presidency’s tune as head of the Nigeria Governors Forum (NGF).
As members of the New PDP have pointed out to their adversaries on National Chairman, Bamanga Tukur’s side, President Goodluck Jonathan, cannot win the 2015 elections without them. Operating as a united team, the ruling party – its diabolical performance in office notwithstanding – still has a chance of clinging to power courtesy of Nigerian-style “free and fair” elections.
If the rebellion turns out to be irreversible and the New PDP joins forces with the likes of APC and others, that coalition stands a good chance of seizing power. That stark reality is not lost on analysts within the ruling party. It is also the greatest incentive for Jonathan and his people to quickly cut a deal with the troublemakers and keep the unraveling ‘largest party in Africa’ in what approximates one piece.
Forget the posturing, rumours and finger-pointing: just look at the speed with which Jonathan has rallied to prevent the Abubakar Kawu Baraje faction from slipping through his fingers. From the day of the disastrous convention till now, an unending string of meetings have been holding.
Even more significant is the fact that the band of rebels for whom a traffic jam of suitors has formed, have been attending the negotiations faithfully. That is not the sort of conduct you would expect from people who have blown up the bridge behind them.
Everything that has been coming out of those meetings indicates that the president and his people will capitulate and give in to the demands of the rebels. But…
The sticking point remains whether Jonathan should run in 2015 or not. On the basis of constitutionality it is impossible to bar the president from putting himself forward. But much has been made of some 2011 agreement in which the incumbent purportedly committed himself to serving just one term in exchange for getting northern support to breach existing zoning arrangements.
All pointers now are that even if such an agreement exists in written form with thumbprints, signatures and legal seal, they will be repudiated by Jonathan. There’s been a lot of huffing and puffing on the part of northern figures over the breaching of that accord.
We will soon know if such talk is just a negotiating stance or whether it has become a point of principle and deal breaker. Still, we must remind ourselves of the words of one-time German Chancellor, Otto von Bismarck who defined politics as the art of the possible.
It is easy to envisage Jonathan throwing Tukur under the bus, restoring control of party structures to governors in states which have been deliberately factionalised as part of the politics of 2015. The heat and dust generated so far notwithstanding, it will be no big thing to lift the suspension placed on Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi.
But then negotiations are give and take. Jonathan can’t be doing all the giving. What does he get in return? Stranger things have happened before in politics; but I will not be shocked if after all the noise, those on the northern flank who have been resisting, surrender to Jonathan’s desire to run for a second term. What will be left will be selling the bitter pill to the party’s supporters in the region.
Caution! Despite its very public mud fight, the ruling party is not dead. It still holds the presidency and all the advantages of incumbency. It controls security agencies and has shown that it will not shy away from dragging the Nigeria Police into its partisan battles. More importantly, its leading lights will do whatever is necessary to hang onto power – including swallowing healthy helpings of humble pie.
I am amazed therefore at the naiveté of commentators who take it for granted that reconciliation between the rebels and the Tukur-controlled party leadership is foreclosed, and that the PDP as we knew it is dead and buried. It reminds me of that quote by the famous American writer, Mark Twain: “Reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated.”
It would be disastrous for any party or groups of parties to base their short or long term plans for capturing power at the center on the help of PDP decampees. The question such strategists should ask themselves is what if the expected split never materialises?
Even if the break with the Baraje faction is irrevocable, depend on it that the rump of the party that is left will not go down without a fight. That desperation to survive will make the 2015 polls potentially the most bloody and contentious Nigeria will witness since independence.
After 14 years most Nigerians have a good idea of what PDP has to offer and given a chance they will deliver a damning verdict at the polls.
That is why instead of wasting time gloating over the travails of the ruling party, or dreaming that the behemoth will crumble in such a fashion that it will no longer be a credible vehicle for capturing federal power, all serious opposition parties should be defining the alternative they offer in ways that will excite voters, and ensure apathy does not hand the ruling party victory against the run of play.
We also know that in large parts of this country, ballots count for nothing. In many inaccessible areas votes are simply written – producing voting day numbers that would have embarrassed the likes of Saddam Hussein. The opposition should focus on developing ideas to checkmate the rigging we all know happens, but can do nothing about.
Unless the opposition plans to defeat a full-strength PDP, it could be disappointed again as the monster recovers from its self-inflicted injuries to entrench itself for its self-proclaimed 60-year hegemony.
