The suspicion in many quarters is that President Goodluck Jonathan actually thinks he has done substantially well enough to justify his party presenting him for re-election in 2015. Kingsley Kuku, the Special Adviser to the President on Niger Delta, and Mujahid Asari-Dokubo, leader of the Niger Delta Peoples Volunteer Force (NDPVF), a militant group physically but not psychologically repentant, think so too, and have reiterated that fact in very unpleasant and annoying language. While the president has kept prudently but disingenuously silent on his records and 2015 ambition, Governor Rotimi Amaechi of Rivers State has spoken imprudently loud about his well-known enemies, their Abuja backers, and the subterfuge perpetrated by the presidency in the riverine state.
Reacting to the massive disapproval that greeted his statements warning of economic sabotage and war if Dr Jonathan was not re-elected, but enjoying every bit of the publicity and attendant notoriety, Asari-Dokubo has goaded the public with yet more boastful and provocative comments. He could not be arrested, he threatened conceitedly, because the last time he was arrested and detained, oil production was cut down by a significant margin. This time, he thundered, his arrest would bring oil production to zero. Such buffoonery! There is no doubt that there are lots of troublemakers in the country, many of them lacking in restraint and sense of proportion, but the many silly remarks Asari-Dokubo made showed him to be a halfwit who should be noted but ignored.
Hon. Kuku, who also heads the well-funded Presidential Amnesty Programme, was even more loquacious, insulting and conniving. “It is true that the Presidential Amnesty Programme has engendered peace, safety and security in the sensitive and strategic Niger Delta,” he began incongruously. “It is only a Jonathan presidency that can guarantee continued peace and energy security in the Niger Delta,” he concluded. He also managed to attempt to blackmail the United States warning them that if they fail to support Jonathan’s re-election it could threaten national stability and oil and gas exports. Unlike Nigeria, which is being blackmailed into precipitous appeasement of all sorts of malcontents, the US never likes to be arm-twisted. By now, after hearing all the careless talk by close aides and advisers of the president, foreign powers will have taken the measure of Nigerian rulers’ minds. They will not be surprised that Nigeria is embroiled in crisis.
But much worse is the proxy war between the president himself and the governor of Rivers State. It is a turf war in which two leading politicians are fighting for supremacy. But the war is unsettling the state, promoting animosity, undermining the constitution, and worsening the tension that has enveloped the country from North to South. While the president’s men are fighting for control of the state in order not to lose it in 2015, Amaechi’s men tamely clutch only to the law and the constitution in a desperate struggle to stay afloat. It is not certain how the struggle will be resolved; whether the constitution will be sustained, or whether federal might will destabilise or even overwhelm the state.
Whatever the situation in Rivers, and however the looming apocalypse in the Northeast, and now North-Central, plays out, the country should prepare for tough times ahead. The president can lower the temperature if he wants to. But there is no proof he knows how to or why he should, or more critically, the consequences of aggravating the turmoil in the country.
