Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is on the prowl. Can he sustain the onslaught against the mainstream Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and ride to the Presidency on the back of the crisis tearing apart the ruling party? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU revisits Atiku’s metamorphosis and the prospects and constraints of his struggle for presidential power.
Since the Turaki Adamawa, Alhaji Atiku Abubakr, placed his hand on the political plough, he has not looked back. The former vice president has remained a major factor. From his lip, stories of triumphs and turbulence on the sliding political field ooze out. For him, life has not been a bed of roses. It has been full of ups and downs. But throughout his sojourn in politics, he has been a consummate politician, great mobiliser, master strategist and crowd puller.
Atiku is today perceived as the arrowhead of the opposition in the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). He rode to that status of an internal opposition leader on the back of President Goodluck Jonathan’s abysmal performance in office and Alhaji Bamanga Tukur’s over-bearing posture as the national chairman. But his presidential ambition is also common knowledge. Thus, critics point out that Atiku is gathering forces, ahead of 2015.
His ambition to rule the country ambition had hit the rock four times. In the aborted Third Republic, he was projected by his mentor, the late General Sheu Yar’Adua, the founder of the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM). That was when the Military leader, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida (rtd), excluded him and other key politicians from the race. At the Jos convention of the proscribed Social Democratic Party (SDP), he stepped down for the late Chief Moshood Abiola, who emerged as the flag bearer.
In 2003, many governors served as campaign managers for Atiku. They believed that, if he contested, he would beat his boss, Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo, (rtd), thereby saving them from persistent persecution. But the former Vice President failed to seize the moment. At midnight, he directed his supporters, who were in the majority, to endorse Obasanjo,
In 2007, he tried his luck again. He was more determined. However, some circumstances forced him to defect from the PDP to the defunct Action Congress (AC), where he contested as the sole aspirant. But he was defeated in the severely flawed presidential election by the late Alhaji Umaru Yar’ Adua, the younger brother of his deceased leader, Gen. Yar’ Adua.
Also, in 2011, Atiku picked up the gauntlet. He was on the firing line again. After returning to the PDP, he entered the ring with President Goodluck Jonathan, who was deputy governor of Bayelsa State, when he was the number two citizen. At the regional level, he beat General Babangida (rtd) at the screening organised for the Northern aspirants. But the regional support collapsed at the Eagles Squares, Abuja, during the subsequent presidential primaries. Unlike 2003, when he was the man to beat, he had become a big elephant who lacked the speed of a lion. He lost to Dr. Jonathan, who wielded the power of incumbency.
To discerning observers, the former Vice President is on the offensive again. Sources said that he is putting his hat in the race at a critical point in national history. Democracy is on the edge and the President’s poor performance has compelled critics to make a case for genuine transformational leader. The North is agitating for power shift, based on an inexplicable agreement on presidential zoning between President Jonathan and few Northern leaders, who are yet to be known. The ruling party is in turmoil, torn apart by acrimony, intrigues, politics of exclusion and power game, ahead of the next elections.
The civil war in the PDP, according to analysts, is not an ideological war. It is an extreme self-seeking war being fought with a missionary zeal by the antagonistic gladiators to halt their imminent slide into political oblivion. Since Tukur became the chairman, the party has not had a moment of respite. As the ally and staunch supporter of the President, he is perceived as a foe by forces plotting to abort his second term ambition. The chairman, who may have been acting the presidential script, has tighten the noose against the President’s perceived enemies in the party.
However, when the party split at its recent rancorous national convention in Abuja, another opportunity opened for Atiku. The former Vice President, seven governors and other aggrieved chieftains were united by their hostility to the President and national chairman over the alleged irregularities that marred the national congress. Up came Atiku as the arrowhead of the Kawu Baraje’s faction of the PDP. Reminiscent of the manner he successfully led the anti-third term campaign, Atiku has been firing salvos at the PDP leadership, accusing it of dictatorship, violation of the party constitution and lack of democratic credential.
During the planning for the convention, his supporters have transformed the PDM into a political party. Confronted with the allegation of anti-party activities, he defended himself, clarifying that, although his supporters formed the party, he is still a chieftain of the PDP. Many PDP stalwarts were not convinced by the explanation. The PDM national chairman, Bashir Yusuf, is a close associate and campaign manager for Atiku Campaign Organisation. The PDP Board of Trustees (BoT) Chairman, Chief Tony Anenih, a founding member of the PDP, cried foul, saying that Atiku could not single handedly transformed the political group into a political party without wide consultation and collective endorsement of the surviving members.
Many agree that Atiku is always adorning his thinking cap. The Adamawa politician has always stayed glued to the drawing board. Like his boss, he has the reputation for anticipating challenges problem-solving. However, some of his associates believe that he had taken some steps in the past that cast doubt on his right judgment. This, they also point out, may be the only difference between him and Gen. Yar’Adua.
Atiku was one of the disciples of the great political wizard, strategist and mobiliser, Yar’Adua, son of the late Alhaji Musa Yar’Adua, former Minister of Lagos Affairs. Yar’Adua had served briefly as the Federal Commissioner for Transport before he became the Chief of Staff, Supreme Headquarters in Obasanjo Administration. Atiku, the political son of the Tafida Katsina became the inheritor and beneficiary of the solid political machinery, PDM, the most outstanding and enduring political cult in the country. His main goal is to be enthroned in the nation’s apex political life. For him, there is no alternative path to self-actualisation. For seven years, that is, between 1999 and 2006, he was bidding for his time. His followers perceived him as the man of the future. But when that future came, certain circumstances made the realisation of the goal much more elusive.
Atiku was at daggers drawn with Obasanjo, who occupied a position of strength as a President with power of incumbency. If he had seized the storm in 2003, when it was evident that he had the support of the governors, who controlled the party structures and the bulk of delegates, the story would have been different. Former Governors James Ibori of Delta State, and his Abia and Adamawa counterparts, Dr. Orji Kalu and Alhaji Boni Haruna, who were in regular contact with other governors, waited endlessly for a directive from the former Vice President to swing the pendulum of victory towards his direction. Obasanjo came down from his Olympian height to prostrate for Atiku to let him secure the ticket. Atiku gave his nod. That inaction and error of judgment became his undoing.
Without parading a chain of degrees from reputable universities, Atiku, the quintessential custom officer, reached the top of his career before he retired as a Deputy Director of Customs. He had built a network across the country, cutting across the entrenched aristocrats, traditional rulers, and political class. But whether he can reenact the political feats of Yar’Adua is a subject of debate.
The late Gen. Yar’Adua had three legacies. His organisational wizardry was legendary. He was able to gather and sustain a lot of ambitious politicians under the same roof, with the sole motive of acquiring power. Even the late sage, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, the founder of the Action Group (AG) and Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), could not penetrate all the geo-political zones. Indisputably, for many years, Yar’Adua’s PDM has retained its national outlook and refused to be overtaken by the tremors of time.
Also, when the members of the PDP found themselves in different parties, the bond of unity was not severed. From time to time, they have remained conscious of their political root. What seems to have made the PDM to fill the public consciousness is that the group is not rebellious to progressive and welfarist politics.
From the onset, Etiku was an integral member of the PDM kitchen cabinet, a dependable ally of Yar’Adua and confidant at the birth of the Peoples Front of Nigeria (PFN). He was not in the dark when it was resolved that the political machinery should join the defunct SDP, one of the two parties decreed into existence by Babangida. In fact, Yar’Adua was already on the fast lane to the Aso Rock when the presidential primaries was truncated by the military. At that time, the banning and unbanning of politicians characterised the dubious transition programme.
Yar’Adua was instrumental to the rise of Alhaji Baba Gana Kingibe. But he later fell out with the seasoned diplomat. The late General was never taken unawares. He was an exponent of “Plan B”. He saw the handwriting on the wall. Therefore, he decided to groom Atiku, his loyal associate, for the number one job. Thus, after he was banned from the race, he prepared Atiku for the contest. He faced Kingibe and Abiola at the Jos Convention. In those days, the embattled politicians were involved in a lot of horse trading. To defeat Kingibe, Atiku was asked to step down for Abiola at the shadow poll.
But deep gulf later ensued between the Tafida Katsina and Aare Ona Kankanfo of Yorubaland. The bone of contention was Abiola’s refusal to accept Atiku as his running mate, contrary to Yar’Adua’s calculation. The 14 SDP state chairmen made it impossible by throwing their weight behind Kingibe. The loss of the two slots-Presidency and Vice Presidency-pained Yar’Adua to the marrows. The only option left for him was to gain the control of the party by mustering strength to install Chief Tony Anenih as the SDP national chairman. It is an irony of political life that both Anenih and Atiku, who harmoniously defended the PDP’s interest at that time now divided by the power games of the post-Yar’Adua period.
After the annulment of the history 1993 presidential election, politicians were in disarray. Yar’Adua wanted to bounce back. Atiku was part of that scramble for power as a member of the PDM in the 1994 constitutional conference set up by the late Head of State, Gen. Sani Abacha. Along with Yar’Adua, he pursued the goal of setting a disengagement day for the military. Yar’Adua later died in mysterious circumstances in the prison, following his conviction over a phantom coup. After his demise, the bereaved PDM members started to look up to Atiku, the successor to the vacant stool of his mentor.
When Abacha died, the members of the PDM decided to participate in the transition programme of Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar. The group became the engine room and most formidable caucus in the PDP. It parading seasoned politicians, including Chief Sunday Afolabi, Chief Anenih, Prof. Ango Abdullahi, Senator Jibril Martins-Kuye, Alhaji Lawal kaita, Chief dapo Sarunmi, Chief Olorunfunmi Basorun, Chief Yomi Edu, Senator Rashidi Ladoja, Senator Tony Adefuye, Mrs. Onikepo Oshodi, Mrs. Titilayo Ajanaku, and Alhaji Abubakar Rimi.
In 1999, Atiku dumped his presidential ambition. When he vied in 1993, it was not his personal ambition. It was Yar’Adua’s ambition in disguise. He returned to Adamawa and emerged as the governor-elect. Obasanjo, the President-elect, was just floating in the PDP. He had no root. He emerged based on three factors. The North had reluctantly conceded the Presidency to the Southwest. Some Northern elements believed that, when he was the military Head of State, he did not work against the interest of the region. Also, the military wanted to remain as a factor and power broker. No other Yoruba man could be trusted, since Chief Olu Falae refused to join the PDP.
Obasanjo did not have any blue-print. He had no premonition of his recall for higher service. He was the candidate of the people that wanted to fill the gap. The PDM members-Atiku, Afolabi, Sarunmi and Edu-were part of the numerous delegations asking him to return to power. Obasanjo had a nightmare selecting a running mate. Four names were presented to him-Rimi, Bamanga Tukur, Prof. Abdullahi and Atiku. He settled for Atiku because of the PDM’s influence.
As the Vice President, Atiku was the de facto President. He was the Controlling Minister of the Economy. To get things done, politicians and others must pass through Atiku route. A former minister, who alerted the President to the danger of allowing his deputy to have sweeping powers, was sacked from the cabinet. The Vice President was also acutely popular among the majority of the governors. Thus, in 2003, many of them urged him to displace Obasanjo. The President was sweating profusely at the primaries. He prostrated before Atiku before earning re-nomination. At that point too, Atiku ceased to be the apple of Obasanjo’s eye.
The Vice President was accused of corruption and disloyalty. He became a nominal figure in the government with no duties to perform. It was clear that he would not be allowed to participate in a free and fair primaries in the PDP. The government even made frantic efforts to halt his presidential ambition in another party, but Atiku ran to the court for security and survival. He became the arrowhead of the opposition as the presidential candidate of the defunct Action Congress (AC) in 2007.
The former Vice President enjoyed tremendous goodwill as the AC presidential candidate. However, after the election, he returned to the PDP. The move, said sources, embarrassed the AC leadership. Other PDP defectors, including Kaita and Ghali Umar Naa’ba, fired salvos at the party, saying that it was not different from the PDP.
But Atiku also took other steps. He ran to Abeokuta to make peace with his estranged boss, Obasanjo. It was to be a secret fence-mending meeting. But, coming out of the meeting, an embarrassed Atiku was accosted by many reporters. The former President yelled at his visitor. Irked by the turn of events, former Abia State Governor Kalu chided Atiku for the wrong step. The reconciliation was not fruitful. It did not lead to any renewal of contact. When the former Vice President indicated unfolded his plan to contest for the Presidency in 2011, Obasanjo laughed mischievously. “I dey laugh o”, he said. It was loaded with meanings. Indeed, Obasanjo joined forces with President Jonathan to abort Atiku’s dream. When Atiku was tearing the record of the President at the primaries, Obasanjo stood up and whispered some words into the President’s ears. Atiku lost.
As the polity prepares for the 2015, what is Atiku’s chance, if he joins the presidential race? His associates confide that he has been hosting a lot of brain-storming sessions with many stakeholders, since he walked out of the Abuja convention. He is investing heavily in political research. Since he is not getting younger, he believes that 2015 offers a rare opportunity.
Since he went back to the PDP, the former Vice President has not been able to wield much influence like before. Recently, he fought to prevent his exclusion from the delegates’ list to the convention. His right as the former PDP Vice President was restored, following the intervention of the PDP national secretariat.
If he joins the race in the PDP, if the party does not totally disintegrate, the same forces that aborted his ambition in 2011 may do the same again in 2015. At Ibadan, Obasanjo had harsh words for his former deputy. He said it would have been dangerous for the country for him to hand over to him. If there is reconciliation in the divided ruling party and Atiku and his forces return to the fold, there is no assurance that he will beat the incumbent President at the primaries. Party sources even predict a bitter feud between Atiku and Obasanjo’s men-Governors Aliyu Wamakko (Sokoto State), Musa Kwakwanso (Kano), Muazu Aliyu (Niger), Muritala Nyako (Adamawa) and Sule Lamido (Jigawa)- during the presidential primaries. Based on Obasanjo’s influence, the Northern governors may opt for Lamido or another aspirant.
However, Atiku may emerge as the flag bearer of the PDM, if he defects to the party. Sources said that he may have deliberately supported the balkanisation of the PDP to weaken it, ahead of the next elections. But how far can the PDM go? “This PDM is not the old PDM”, said Anenih, who asked Atiku to retrace his steps. If he goes for the presidential poll as the PDM candidate, his sphere of influence may become narrow across the six geo-political zones.
If Atiku seeks alliance with the All Progressives Congress (APC), the chieftains of the defunct AC in the fold may be weary. Many of them have described him as an inconsistent politician, who jumped the ship after losing the presidential election. Also, it is not likely that the party will jettison Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd) and other aspirants in favour of the former Vice President.
