I was moved with pity for Alhaji Atiku Abubarkar and his presidential team during the campaign rally held few days go at Mapo Hall in Ibadan.
About six kilometres from the venue of the rally at a car wash off Iwo Road, a man is his 30s speaking in the ever amusing Ibadan dialect described the event as a gathering of thieves at Mapo’ while another colleague of his quipped, “are they coming again, never”.
This is just a sample of caustic and brazen unleashing of uncomplimentary utterances around south West of Nigeria against the political actors of People’s Democratic Party and the Party itself. These uncomplimentary remarks deriding the PDP are in form of jokes, and abusive songs in deep Yoruba language of which English translation can never be accurate.
Shutting down of businesses and paralyzing traffic flow around Mapo is not new, even the least known of the parties have done the same in the past, but because of curiosity not for popularity and acceptance the half capacity crowd at Mapo must have falsely given the leadership of PDP the assurance of popularity.
Unlike in some geopolitical zone, the Yoruba people are unique when it comes to political affiliation and leaning but that does not mean that individuals groups are no free to make their choices.
The communal nature of Yoruba reflects in their political and social choices, therefore, political parties that have egalitarianism and welfarism embedded in their central policy are embraced. The was why parties like Action Group (AG), Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN) Alliance for Democracy (AD) and recently All Peoples Congress APC were dominant in the West. All things being equal the pattern of voting in South West is predictably unchanged.
Since it’s a tradition based on what I see as a cultural belief, the pattern of voting and the political leaning of the Yoruba has not changed even with the federal might that brought the three months old NPN, government to power in Oyo State in 1983, and the PDP interregnum in Ogun, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo except Lagos in 2003 governorship election. The question is where are those leaders of NPN and PDP in the political calculation of these Yoruba states today. They can’t be identified with any political party or well-known Yoruba socio-cultural organizations.
Interestingly, however Nigeria as a whole has developed a pattern of political learning and voting with its manifestation since 1959 and even in 1979. The election of 1999, 2003, 2007, 2011 sealed and altered the pattern in some political zones but in 2015 because of the progressive leaning of the north President Mohammed Buhari was elected thereby fulfilling the wishes of Chief Obafemi Awolowo and Alhaji Aminu Kano. Both legends were welfarists known for their concern for the poor and around whom their politics were centered. But would Buhari still maintain his grip of the Yoruba states at this forth coming election? Yes, without and shaking, the states are his and with the inherent nature of the people of the region known for celebrating people of intergtiy, incorruptibility, modesty, hard work and not-me-before-others attitude.
With the support of Ashiwaju Ahmed Tinubu and his lieutenants across the West, President Buhari has no problem securing the majority of the votes from the region. Chief Olusegun Obasanjo and the Leaders of various sociocultural groups who have been showing their preferences and endorsements for Alhaji Atiku are embarking on an exercise in futility because they know the nature of their people. Even Chief Obasanjo was aware of this in 2015 when he declared openly for candidate Buhari. He knew where the pendulum was swinging in favour of Buhari’s victory. It is believed that his endorsement of Atiku is a deceit because he lacked electoral value to support the endorsement even in Abeokuta.
The impact of groups like Afenifere, Yoruba council of elders on the presidential election outcome has largely been little and even non-existent retrospectively since the passing on of Chief Adekunle Ajasin, Chief Bola Ige and Chief Abraham Adesanya whose position on any political issue got automatic approval of majority of Yoruba and even non-Yoruba alike. It is therefore not so difficult to predict presidential voting pattern in the West, for example, a mere opinion sampling among the real voting population tells you who would have the most votes. These are people in the circles of artisans, market women, students, commercial drivers, farmers and traders.
These are people who in previous democratic exercises knew which of the political parties and actors delivered on their promises and which tallied with their cultural and traditional demands.
It is therefore highly likely that this perception would be brought to bear while scrutinizing candidates for their votes for the president in 2019.
The reputation of People Democratic Party (PDP) as a party of plunderers of the nation’s resources is an albatross for all their members including Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in the eyes of the people of western Nigeria. The on-going trials, seizure and forfeitures of frightening huge sum of money traced to PDP stalwarts are well known to the people of the region. Unlike in other geo political zones, those who were indicted in south west have all gone underground with their family members and relations hiding themselves in shame from the public. Those who are not in hiding are in inconsequential political parties just to satisfy all righteousness.
Lagos known for the highest numbers of voting population, will go Buhari way just at the rest five other states in the zone and with Asiwaju Tinubu leading the Progressive forces the coast is clear for President Buhari. Asiwaju Tinubu has enormous influence on the voters of the region clearly ahead of any individuals and socio-cultural groups reminiscent of the legendary influence and leadership of Chief Obafemi Awolowo.
The PDP is an object of ridicule and jokes in the west on the grounds of their administration inability to increase electricity supply by one megawatt in 16 years it was in power in spite of the whooping $16 Billion spent for the purpose by Chief Obasanjo’s administration, the shambolic state of roads and other critical infrastructure, unfulfilled promises on tertiary education and health facilities in the country in spite of huge revenue from oil throughout their tenure. Crude oil sold for between $80 and $145 during the PDP years while it nosedived to as low as $29 when President Buhari took over.
The reputation of President Buhari as incorruptible, selfless and a person known for his spartan life endeared him to the Yoruba.
As principled people, it will not only be a herculean task but an impossibility for Alhaji Atiku to garner enough votes in Yoruba land not withstanding his promise in Ibadan while launching his campaign that he would embark on restructuring six months into his tenure. The question is why did he make the promise in Ibadan and not in Sokoto, Kano or Maiduguri?
The promise was deliberately targeted at the Yoruba because he felt that is what they wanted to hear.
He dare not say such in Northern Nigeria, because of the wrath of the Northern establishment of which he is one as well as the entire conservatives and elites all of whom are against restructuring.
The widely publicized use of foreign currencies at the PDP presidential convention where he was elected as the presidential candidate in Port Harcourt is undoubtedly of serious implications in the eyes of Yoruba people and other right thinking Nigerians who are expressing fears and concerns about the security of the federal tilt in event Alhaji Atiku emerged the winner. Just as a colleague observed that government money to politician of his creed is free money. It is impossible for Yoruba people to go for a candidate who led his members to such a shameful and brazen act of waste because of the quest for power. The dollar rain was an open exhibition of contempt for our own currency by politicians who should be an embodiment of patriotism. Can they ever be proud of our naira? I don’t think so.
The issue of non-issuance of visa to Alhaji Atiku by the United State government is of a grave consequence for his presidential ambition with the question, why was he denied visa for 11 years? It is believed in south-west that he must have committed a criminal offence for US government to have black listed him only short of declaring him wanted.
His denial of visa means a lot to voters in the west because the people are sufficiently informed enough to know the implication for someone who wants to be president of Nigeria to be in that diplomatic mess. They see it as an embarrassment to Nigerians at home and abroad for any presidential candidate no matter his chances at the polls. In a saner environment such candidate would not even venture to go for any elective office.
- Akin. A. Onipede, a veteran journalist, wrote from Ibadan