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  • Obasanjo, Atiku and 2019 calculations

    After backing his opponents thrice to block him from becoming President, former President Olusegun Obasanjo made a U-turn yesterday. He threw weight behind the presidential ambition of his erstwhile deputy Atiku Abubakar. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU writes on the new-found love between the political foes and the implications of the alliance for 2019.

    The cold war between former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his former deputy, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, may be over. Or so it seems.

    For 12 years, the Owu-born chief, as Obasanjo is fondly called, stood against the presidential ambition of the Waziri Adamawa. After leaving bowing out of power in 2007, stopping Atiku from taking the driver’s seat became his major priority. But, following a sudden, inexplicable rapport at Obasanjo’s Abeokuta, Ogun State residence yesterday, the General and civil war hero ate his words.

    Obasanjo, who described the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate as the “president-to-be,” congratulated him in advance. Having encouraged the formation of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), which cannot fly, the former president, who is bent on stopping President Muhammadu Buhari in next year’s election, saw hope and an alternative in Atiku. The presidential candidate of the ADC, the party believed to enjoy his backing, Obadiah Mailafia, got no consideration.

    Yesterday, there was no reason for Obasanjo to write a lengthy letter to anybody again. Reality has also dawned on him that he lacked the structure to either intimidate effectively the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and President Buhari. Therefore, he looked for a new ally in an unusual quarter. But, will the realignment last?

    Obasanjo explained the change of heart, although his reasons, according to observers, may not be convincing. The former leader suddenly recalled the succession plan he dropped in 2007, saying that it was actually designed to herald an Atiku presidency. Although he had branded the former number two citizen as a disloyal deputy then, he said the Adamawa-born politician has now “re-discovered and repositioned” himself.

    In Obasanjo’s view, Atiku has shown remorse; he has asked for forgiveness and mended fences. Therefore, in his reckoning, he is more competent to govern than President Buhari. The proofs, as highlighted by Obasanjo, are that Atiku understands the economy; he is a Wazobia man. He believes in appointment based on merit, not blood relationship and friendship. Also, he is more accessible.

    Being a former Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) deputy governor, ADC presidential candidate Dr. Mailafia, cannot be a novice in the field of economy.

    The journey to the Hill Top, Abeokuta was carefully planned. Atiku was accompanied by eminent clerics, who like Obasanjo, are experts in theology, and some notable politicians. They include: Living Faith Ministries (Winners Chapel) Presiding Bishop David Oyedepo; Sokoto Catholic Diocese Bishop Mathew Hassan Kukah; Kaduna-based Islamic cleric Sheik Gumi Abubakar; former governors Brig.-Gen. Olagunsoye Oyinlola (Osun); Otunba Gbenga Daniel (Ogun); Liyel Imoke (Cross River); Otunba Oyewole Fasawe; Senator Ben Murray-Bruce and PDP National Chairman Prince Uche Secondus.

    The politicians on the delegation are PDP chieftains or sympathisers.  What could not be ascertained was the political leaning of the eminent Muslim and Christian leaders, and their motivation for accompanying the PDP flag bearer? Did they go there as true peacemakers between two politicians, or friends-turned foes? Is there any personal or political motive behind it?

    Are the clerics spiritual consultants to PDP and Atiku? Are they silent patrons of the PDP or the Atiku Campaign organisation? How will they convince their congregation that they are “apolitical?” Is the pulpit now another altar for partisanship? What is the implication of lack of neutrality? Will they start asking their congregation to emulate the politics of Atiku? Or the politics of Obasanjo?

    The visit, and previous ones made by politicians gazing at 2019, may have inflated the ego, influence and relevance of the former military and civilian president. Although essentially designed for ego massaging, they may have also robed the Ekerin Egba and Balogun Owu as a co-member of the cult of political principals and principalities, who despite their inability to effect power shift on their own, have managed to remain somehow relevant on account of old glory.

    General Obasanjo is able to study the national mood. He is capitalising on the expectations of Nigerians that may not have been met. He is playing down the achievements of the Buhari administration and amplifying its shortcomings. The onus is on the government to step up its efforts and meet public expectation.

    But, is Obasanjo so critical to Atiku’s ambition? Does it mean that the eminent politician cannot make it without him? What is the electoral worth of the combative Owu chief? Is Atiku’s structure not more formidable than any machinery offered by Obasanjo? Is Obasanjo a better politician than Atiku?

    Obasanjo, the self-acclaimed gerontocratic monitor, may be trying to undo the damage he had done to his erstwhile deputy. The old soldier recanted in a hard way. It may be a disservice to strong principles.  To analysts, it was doubtful, if Obasanjo was motivated by national interest, which he often professed. He was driven by an uncanny, morbid hate for President Buhari, who has refused to operate from his armpit.

    The party card Obasanjo tore four years ago starred him in the face. Is Obasanjo, who claimed that he has retired from active politics, returning to the party he repudiated? Will his new party, ADC, now wind up and team up with the PDP, or Atiku, for the 2019 battle? What is actually responsible for the retracing of steps? What is the worth of an endorsement informed, not by national interest, but personal interest?

    In an open letter early this year, the former president had written off the ruling APC and the opposition PDP as parties that can never get Nigerians to the Promised Land. He called for the formation of a “Third Force”, which he promised to midwife. He went further to rally like-minds to form the Coalition for Nigeria (CN)

    It is up to Nigerians, especially, those who bought into the “Third Force” and CN ideas, to decide the fate of the platforms with unfolding developments.

    During the military rule, Obasanjo was at loggerheads with Gen. Buhari, self-styled military President Ibrahim Babangida and the late Gen. Sani Abacha. Although he imposed his successor, the late Umaru Yar’Adua in 2007, he later disowned him two years later, saying that the Katsina-born politician lacked capacity. Yar’Adua’s successor, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan, whose re-election he supported in 2011, was brought down by a stroke of his pen.

    In his self-imposed duty of looking for national solutions, he aligned with Buhari in 2015. Next year, his plan is to campaign to oust Buhari and install Atiku. What is the assurance that Obasanjo, “the all is wrong and I alone is right statesman,” will not disown Atiku again? How many presidents have lived up to the expectation of a leader who is not nationally acknowledged as a mentor and role model?

    In 2003, Obasanjo and Atiku parted ways. Since his hand was heavy on the governors, they resolved to deny him a second term. The symbol of the ‘coup’ was Atiku, who the governors wanted as the PDP candidate. More vociferous were James Ibori (Delta State), Alams Alamieyeseigha (Bayelsa) and Orji Uzor Kalu (Abia) in the campaign against Obasanjo. They all paid dearly for the effrontery.

    Yet, Atiku was undecided. Desperate for a second term, Obasanjo had to prostrate for his deputy, who later gave his nod at the PDP presidential primary to the consternation of the aggrieved governors. It became Atiku’s undoing.

    Hell was let loose. Atiku became a spare tyre that a vice president was in Aso Villa. He was shoved aside. An inter-ministerial panel in the image of the power-loaded president was set up to try him. Atiku was found guilty. It was evident that he was unwanted as a successor. Atiku fought back. He became an anti-third term crusader. Sources said when the third term project was truncated, Obasanjo’s anger against Atiku grew beyond proportion. He swore that Atiku will be president over his dead body.

    Obasanjo had outlined his grievances against his deputy, ahead of 2007. He described Atiku as a disloyal deputy, unworthy of the crown. Asked to react to Atiku’s presidential ambition, he said: ‘I dey laugh o.’ It was loaded with meaning. During the 2011 PDP presidential primary, he joined forces with Dr. Jonathan to abort Atiku’s bid. At a lecture in Ibadan, Oyo State capital, he also doubted Atiku’s competence, saying that he was unfit for leadership. Few months ago, Obasanjo said God will never forgive him, if he ever supported Atiku. The former vice president dismissed the tirade, urging Obasanjo to reconcile with his creator.

    In his book: “My watch,” Obasanjo explained his grievances against Atiku and why he will not support his presidential ambition. He may need to write a new book to capture his change of mind, in view of how his words on mortal have created credibility crisis for Atiku.

    He stated: “I settled for Atiku Abubakar. Some of the reasons were he worked hard for the project, he never indicated interest in the job to me, he had worked closely with Shehu Yar’Adua and Shehu never passed any adverse comment on him, he had been elected as a governor which already put him on the pedestal to move up politically, but he had been short- changed in the election that would have put M.K.O.Abiola in power, and he seemed to have some national outreach.

    “What I did not know, which came out glaringly later, was his parental background which was somewhat shadowy, his propensity to corruption, his tendency to disloyalty, his inability to say and stick to the truth all the time, a propensity for poor judgment, his belief and reliance on marabouts , his lack of transparency, his trust in money to buy his way out on all issues and his readiness to sacrifice morality, integrity, propriety truth and national interest for self and selfish interest.

    “May be some of these traits and poor attributes are not easy to see until you work with the person concerned. And those who should tell would keep quite so that they would not be accused of running others down. For instance until later, when a distinguished chief from Bauchi pointed out to me the value of pedigree, queried Atiku’s pedigree and blamed me for making a wrong choice, I did not pay attention to Atiku’s parental background.

    “Furthermore until all efforts to help Atiku change had failed – and having stumbled upon a report of inquiry carried out on him – I asked one of my predecessors why he did not inform me of how bad the report was and he said that he thought I knew. He said: “This was a man I wanted to dismiss and jail, but for the intervention of Shagaya and Shehu Yar’Adua.

    “I took him at face value. However if his appointment was an error, I fully accepted responsibility for the genuine mistake. And knowing all that I discovered about him, what would have been an unpardonable mistake and sin against God would have been to foist him on Nigeria.”

    There are questions begging for answers: what has Obasanjo seen now that he did not see before? What is the justification for the summersault? Will his new alignment herald defeat for President Buhari? Will his endorsement sway the votes? Will it make Atiku win?

    Time will tell.

     

  • Gang up ’ll fail, says Buhari as Obasanjo endorses Atiku

    They’ll lose together, says Presidency

    Former President Olusegun Obasanjo yesterday endorsed his one-time deputy, Atiku Abubakar, for president — after scorning him relentlessly as unfit for the job.

    But in a swift reaction, the Presidency described it as a gang up that won’t stand.

    On his Twitter handle, presidential spokesman Femi Adesina tweeted: “The harder they come, the harder they fall. 2019 presidential election on my mind.”

    In a statement, the Senior Special Assistant (Media and Publicity) to the President, Mallam Garba Shehu, said Obasanjo and Atiku would lose together in next year’s election.

    At his sprawling Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library (OOPL) in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, Obasanjo, who had in the past vowed never to back Atiku, yesterday made a U’ turn and tipped the Turaki Adamawa for the top job.

    He said he had forgiven Atiku.

    Atiku, who picked the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP’s) presidential ticket at its convention in Port Harcourt, the Rivers State capital on Sunday, was in Abeokuta to seek Obasanjo’s blessing for next year’s election.

    He went with Presiding Bishop of the Living Faith Church (aka Winners Chapel), Bishop David Oyedepo, Sokoto Catholic Diocese Bishop Matthew Hassan Kukah and Kaduna-based Islamic cleric Sheikh Ahmed Gumi.

    Others in his entourage were PDP National Chairman Uche Secondus, former Cross River State Governor Liyel Imoke, former Ogun State Governor Gbenga Daniel and former Deputy National Chairman of PDP Bode George.

    Lagos lawyer Chief Ayo Adebanjo led his faction of the Yoruba socio-political group Afenifere, to the meeting. It was the second time in 48 hours that he was leading the group to Obasanjo’s home.

    Obasanjo, who once said “God will not forgive me if I support Atiku” explained that the former vice president “has rediscovered and repositioned himself”.

    He and Atiku, he said, had reviewed what went wrong between them, adding that his former stand on Atiku was not personal but based on what he had done against the PDP and the country.

    Obasanjo had accused Atiku of corruption and disloyalty.

    The elder statesman, however, said Atiku had apologised and “I have forgiven him”.

    He said: “From what transpired in the last couple of hours, you have shown remorse, you have asked for forgiveness and you have indicated that you have learnt some good lessons

    “ You have also promised to mend fences and make amends as necessary and as desirable.

    “Whenever or wherever you might have offended me, as a Christian who asks for God’s forgiveness of my sins and inadequacies on a daily basis, I forgive and I sincerely advise you to learn from the past and do what is right and it will be well with you.

    “Obviously, you have mended fences with the party and fully reconciled with the party.

    “ That’s why today, you are the presidential candidate of the party.”

    Obasanjo advised Atiku to appreciate all that the PDP had done for him, imploring him to work with all other presidential aspirants as a campaign team.

    The former president noted that there were still national and international fences for Atiku to mend.

    “ I am convinced that if you continue with the attitude that brought you here with these distinguished leaders of goodwill, with remorse and contrite heart, the rest of the coast within and outside the country can be cleared.

    “And if there is anything I can do and you want me to do in that respect, I will do.

    “I am sure with the right attitude for change where necessary, and by putting lessons learned by you to work, you will get the understanding, cooperation, support and mandate of Nigerians.

    “ With Nigerians voting for you, it will mean that you secure their forgiveness and regain their confidence.

    “It will be with the hope or assurance of a Paul on the road to Damascus Conversion. After all, change and conversion are of man and I believe that with a contrite heart, change is possible in everybody’s life and situation.

    Obasanjo noted that among all PDP presidential aspirants, Atiku possessed the widest and greatest exposure, experience, outreach and possibly the best machinery for seeing the “tough and likely dirty campaign ahead” through.

    He claimed that Atiku has a better understanding of the economy than others.

    “You surely understand the economy better and you have business experience, which can make your administration business-friendly and boost the economy and provide jobs.

    “You have better outreach nationally and internationally and that can translate to better management of foreign affairs.

    “You are more accessible and less inflexible and more open to all parts of the country in many ways.

    “As Pastor Bakare, one-time running mate of the incumbent President said, ‘You are a Wazobia man.’

    ”And that should help you in confronting the confrontable and shunning nepotism.

    ”As you know, along the road to where you are today, many leaders and ordinary people cooperated and overtly and covertly worked hard.  On your behalf, I thank them all.  May their coast continue to be expanded.

    ”And when you become Nigerian President which, Insha-Allah, you will be, remember what we did together in government – we ran an administration by Nigerians for all Nigerians where merit and performance count more than blood relationship, friendship or kith and kin.

    “Although some time and ground have been lost, you should endeavour to start from where we stopped and recover some lost ground, if not time.

    Please uphold truth, integrity, principles, morality and fight corruption, crimes and insurgency.

    “ The fundamental law of the land, our constitution must be scrupulously defended. I make one demand and one demand on you today, I need you to say before God and man that you will always remain irrevocably committed to upholding all the provisions of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the whole country will remain your single indivisible constituency.

    ”Constitutionalism, popular participation and inclusiveness are pre-conditions for reversing the deficits of the past three-and-a-half years. They will ensure abiding faith in our indivisibility, oneness and faith in the survival of all against none.

    ”The fundamentals for our development, economic growth and progress are hard and soft infrastructure.  Remember to always give adequate places in your administration to our youth and women.

    “All the authorities involved with the preparations, all processes and conduct of the election must ensure that the election is free, fair and credible.

    ”Once again, congratulations and I wish you well.  My distinguished brothers and leaders of goodwill, thank you for making this happen.  I will now count on you to encourage all hands to be on deck to take Nigeria to the level God has created it to be – autopilot level. God bless you all and God bless Nigeria.”

    Obasanjo advised Atiku to run an inclusive government where merit and performance count more than blood relationship, friendship or kith and kin like they both did between 1999 and 2007

    In his opening remarks, Atiku described the meeting as historic for him, Obasanjo and Nigeria.

    He reiterated that he could not have become relevant without the training and tutelage from Obasanjo’s leadership.

    Atiku, who described the day as one of the happiest days in his life, said it was time for well-meaning Nigerians to come together for the repositioning of the country on the path of unity and prosperity.

    He pledged to dedicate and commit his tenure, if elected as president, to the continuation of the Olusegun Obasanjo- led administration.

     

  • Presidency: Obasanjo, Atiku will lose together

    THE Presidency last night said former President Olusegun Obasanjo and his anointed candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, will lose together in next year’s presidential election.

    Reacting to Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku, the Presidency said President Muhammadu Buhari would not be distracted by the endorsement.

    In a statement, Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity Garba Shehu said the Presidency was not surprised by the development.

    Shehu said: “The Presidency has received the news of former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s predictable U-turn and somersault on the endorsement of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Atiku Abubakar, at a meeting on Thursday, and to say that we are the least surprised by the well-rehearsed theatre.

    “They will lose together. Listening to the prepared statement of the former president after the meeting showed the usual ego trip and ‘I know it all’ character of Chief Obasanjo.

    “In the first place, we dare to say that a pompous statement from the former president advising Nigerians on a vote against President Buhari is the best recommendation that can come at this time.

    “It also betrayed a lack of understanding of today’s politics which is about good governance.

    “The country voted for change in 2015 and a leader that ensures good governance which only President Buhari and the All Progressives Congress (APC) can provide.

    “Bent on these laudable goals, we will not allow ourselves to be distracted.”

    The administration, Shehu said, was busy on various national issues including the restructuring and the diversification of the economy, fighting corruption, terrorism and other threats to national security; increasing the availability of electric power, improving education, health, and providing long-delayed infrastructure – roads, rail, airports and so forth.

    Stressing that many governments have come and gone, he noted that they did not care about some of the projects.

    He said: “We were talking about these things for 16 years under the PDP and nothing was done.

    “President Buhari is proud of his record because his achievements are verifiable, while that of the PDP is manifested by the devastating social and economic impact of large scale corruption during their governance.

    “The President will not relent in the war against corruption because the ordinary people are the ultimate victims if we surrender to corruption and let its perpetrators go unpunished.

    “Abandoning the war against corruption is not an option. President Buhari is in this battle against graft because he cannot allow a few, rapacious, and selfish class of the elite to divert the resources meant for the well-being of the ordinary people to their private pockets.

    “Nigerians trust President Buhari in this effort because they are convinced he is not in government for personal financial benefits, or for an ego trip. It is just 11 years ago that the former president and vice president in their ugly fight for power accused each other of corruption. Nigerians are yet to forget all that.”

     

  • PDP, Atiku can’t avoid corruption scrutiny, says APC

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) said yesterday that the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) cannot run away from the issues of corruption and integrity of its presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar.

    Reacting to a statement by the PDP  Acting National Publicity Secretary Yekini Nabena said the former Vice President grapples with many corruption indictments, saying “this is a fact and reality he needs to deal with and come clean about.”

    The APC spokesman said the PDP could not be simplistic in its attempt to wish away the issue of the integrity of candidates seeking elections into positions.

    The statement said: “The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)  Kola Ologbondiyan released a statement accusing the senior officials of the All Progressives Congress-led administration of “deliberate efforts to impugn on the character” of the PDP presidential candidate, Alh. Atiku Abubakar.

    “The PDP’s assertion particularly coming from its spokesperson is ironic and laughable, given the fact that Mr. Kola Ologbondiyan as an editor with one of the national newspapers in fact, unearthed the Special Audit/Forensic Investigation of Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) which indicted Alh. Atiku Abubakar, then Vice President for the mismanagement of the Fund.

    “The PDP spokesperson in his published report disclosed that from 1999 to 2006, Atiku’s approval for the release of $20m from the treasury and subsequent placement in Trans International Bank without appropriation and approval by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) was illegal and amounted to abuse of office.

    “There are no lies here. Alh. Atiku Abubakar grapples with several other corruption indictments. This is a fact and reality he needs to deal with and come clean about.

    “The PDP cannot be simplistic and attempt to wish away the issue of the integrity of candidates seeking elections into positions at all levels, particularly as 2019 approaches.

    “We reiterate our position that the Nigerian electorate must have that opportunity to choose from candidates that can pass the integrity and anti-corruption test. The character of office holders we elect into public offices is important as our very progress and development as a country depends on it.

    ”When the choice is to be made, the electorate have the option of a proven and decent presidential candidate who is putting the people first and on the other hand a racketeer who will readily mortgage the country commonwealth to personal coffers and cronies.”

  • Buhari ‘ll defeat Atiku, says group

    A pro-Buhari campaign group, Re–elect Buhari Movement (RBM) has described ratification of President Muhammadu Buhari’s candidature by the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2019 Presidential election as a reward for good performance over the last three years in office.

    The group, in a congratulatory message by its Convener, Mr. Emmanuel Umohinyang, therefore, expressed confidence that President Buhari will give the former Vice-president, Atiku Abubakar a bloody nose in the coming poll.

    According to the group, the President has lived up to his billing in the delivery of the three cardinal programmes he promised Nigerian in 2015.

    The statement reads: “The President came on board with an unblemished record of public service, and he has justified the confidence that some of us reposed in him in 2015, that he would better his past record. We are happy he did not disappoint.

    “We want to assure Nigerians again that since he did not disappoint in his first four years, he will not now, rather he will continue to move Nigeria forward.

    “The propaganda that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has been rebranded is not true. PDP, we have always said, can never change.

    “What therefore is before us in 2019 is not a contest between President Buhari, and former Vice President Atiku. It is a contest between darkness and light.

    “It will be funny if the PDP think having come out of Egypt; we are willing to go back. Never! We have seen the 16 years of PDP, which Atiku was a part of, and we have seen over three years of President Buhari’s administration. Atiku’s emergence has even made the job easier for President Buhari in 2019.”

  • Buhari, Atiku and the battle ahead

    With the primaries of the two major political parties, the All Progressives Congress, APC and the Peoples Democratic Parties, PDP, now over, the coast is now clear for real politicking. Understandably, all eyes are now on President Muhammadu Buhari and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, the flag bearers of the APC and PDP respectively in the 2019 presidential election. While it could be said that Buhari had it easy securing his party’s ticket, being the sole candidate, Atiku on the other hand had to slug it out with over 12 political titans that included Senate President Bukola Saraki, former Senate President David Mark, Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal and host of others.

    Now that the primaries are over, what are the chances of these two political gladiators in the battle for Aso Rock Villa? From the look of things, the battle is likely to be a lot tougher than it was in 2015, especially for President Buhari. This is because lots of events have overtaken most of the sentiments that effortlessly worked in his favour in 2015.

    For one, the religion card that readily tilted in his favour in 2015, especially in the northern part of the country, might not wholly work for him this time around. This is for the obvious fact that Atiku Abubakar, his major contender, is also a northern Muslim like the President. Thus, while it might have been too easy for some northern Muslims to vote President Buhari ahead of Dr. Goodluck Jonathan in 2015, same scenario might not automatically play out in 2019.

    Also, unlike in 2015 when President Buhari smoothly secured majority of the votes in the north, he must be prepared for a tougher battle in 2019 in the region traditionally acknowledged as his political fortress. He would, no doubt, face a stiffer duel in the Northeast where Alhaji Atiku Abubakar hails from. For some time now, the zone has been clamouring to also have a fair shot at the presidency. If not well managed, major fallouts of the APC primaries from the Northeast, especially in Adamawa and Taraba states might further jeopardize the president’s performance in the region. So, unlike in 2015 when the president got block votes from the Northeast, he might need to worker extra hard to make better inroad in 2019.

    Also, in the Northwest, where the larger chunks of the president’s votes usually come from, the signs are not also too sure for him. For one, the squabble between Kano State governor, Abdulahi Umar Ganduje, and his immediate predecessor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso might play a significant role in reducing the number of votes the president usually gets from Kano. In 2015, out of a total valid votes of 2,128,821, President Buhari secured 1,903,999, representing about 90 % of total votes cast.

    When it is considered that President Buhari won the 2015 presidential election against Jonathan with a total of 2, 571, 759 votes, the import of the almost two million votes he got from Kano significantly becomes noticeable. So, without a doubt, Kano is President Buhari’s strongest electoral fortress. But then, with Senator Kwankwaso, who in his own right is a popular Kano politician, now aligning with Alhaji Abubakar Atiku and the PDP, the president’s chances in Kano might not be as massive as it was in 2015.

    Though, it might be argued that recent defection of former governor of Kano State, Mallam Ibrahim Shekarau from the PDP to APC represents a good omen for the president’s prospect in Kano, but the refusal of Mallam Shekarau’s long-time political ally, Malam Salihu Sagir Takai, who is now PDP gubernatorial candidate in Kano State, to follow him to APC might further narrow the chances of the president in Kano.

    Still on President Buhari’s prospect in the Northwest, Sokoto might also constitute a serious banana peel for the president, especially with the defection of the governor, Alhaji Aminu Tambuwal to the PDP. It has equally been alleged that the president doesn’t really enjoy the best of relationship with the highly revered monarch of Sokoto, Sultan Muhammadu Sa’ad Abubakar III. It will be recalled that in 2015 presidential election, APC scored 671,926 as against PDP’s 152,199. Tambuwal’s defection to the PDP as well as other political undercurrents in the state might likely alter things in 2019.

    In the North-central, where the president for the first time had an appreciable standing in 2015, lots of issues might also work against his chances in 2019. Chief among such is the farmers and herdsmen clashes in states such as Benue, Plateau and Nassarawa. Also, the defection of Senate President, Bukola Saraki to the PDP might really work against the president in Kwara State, and to a large extent in Kogi State. The well publicized antagonism of some powerful retired Generals of the North-central extraction to President Buhari’ second term bid might also be a huge factor, especially in Niger and Plateau states.

    Now, going down south, President Buhari would need the best of strategies and a more than a miracle to have a major breakthrough in the Southeast and South –south. Since 1999, these two zones have always been an enclave of the PDP and that might not really change in 2019. However, recent defections of Senator Godswill Akpabio and former Delta State governor, Dr. Emmanuel Uduaghan from the PDP to the APC, may translate into a substantial electoral success for the APC in the South-south, considering the political stature of these two men in the zone.

    In the Southwest, for many reasons, President Buhari is probably going to have an upper hand.  First, his deputy, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, who is perceived by many to be a leading light of the Buhari administration, is from the zone. Second, the APC effectively controls five out of the six states in the region while Ekiti would soon join as Dr. Kayode Fayemi takes over from incumbent Governor Ayodele Fayose in a few days time. Thirdly, unlike what transpired during the Jonathan presidency, President Buhari seems to favour the region in the choice of key ministerial appointments. However, from the closeness of recent gubernatorial elections in both Osun and Ekiti, it is quite clear that the PDP still has a fairly good foothold in the region.

    From the look of things, the 2019 presidential election is likely to be a close one. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku is a shrewd politician with massive political networks across the country and he has been eyeing the presidency since God knows when. This might be his last possible attempt. No doubt, he will give it all it takes. President Buhari, on the other hand, has the power of incumbency and his well-known tough stance against corruption going well for him. It is hoped that the two leading candidates would run an issue based campaign that is devoid of mudslinging and undue rancour. At the end of the day, it is the interest of the country and his people that should be paramount.

     

    • Ogunbiyi is of the Ministry of Information & Strategy, Alausa, Ikeja.

  • Sagay, Oyebode disagree on Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku

    Two eminent jurists, Prof.  Itse Sagay (SAN) and Prof. Akin Oyebode yesterday expressed divergent views on former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s endorsement of his one-time deputy, Atiku Abubakar, for president.

    In separate telephone interviews, Sagay, Presidential Advisory Committee Against Corruption (PACAC) chairman, said Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku was of no electoral value.

    Obasanjo and Atiku, he claimed, performed woefully while in power.

    But Oyebode, a retired professor of International Law and Jurisprudence, said President Muhammadu Buhari, who is Atiku’s main rival in next year’s election, was overrated, having “underperformed”.

    He said Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku was a welcome development, adding that it would increase the former vice president’s chances of winning the election.

    Sagay said: “The endorsement will make absolutely no impact, absolutely no impact on the election. The value is not more than the announcement. It won’t add one extra vote to Atiku. It’s just a waste of time. Obasanjo has no following whatsoever, so I don’t know what all the talk is about.

    “He can say anything. When he was there for eight years, the economy was grounded all along and he left it grounded. So if they knew the difference between handling the economy well and not handling it well, why didn’t they demonstrate it?

    “So, the man just talks, and because he is a former head of state, people listen to him. He does not add a single value to Atiku’s election prospects. It’s just rhetoric.”

    But Oyebode said Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku was not unexpected, adding: “This is a man who was his vice president and he knows him inside-out. Obasanjo had said that Buhari was a non-starter. So, if Buhari is a non-starter, then Atiku might get the edge, because they’re the frontrunners.

    “Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku by necessary implication negates the prospects of Buhari. Buhari has been a big disappointment. He has underperformed. He’s overrated. People have seen through him that he would face a very hard task to get re-elected.

    “I think Obasanjo, in supporting Atiku, is saying: ‘Better the devil you know than the angel you’re yet to meet’. That is what happened.”

    National Chairman of United Progressive Party (UPP) Chekwas Okorie said the endorsement had no electoral value.

    He said: “It is good to forgive people who have offended you. So, it is a good thing to forgive. I have also forgiven so many people who have offended me. Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku as far as I am concerned is merely symbolic. I don’t think the former president can influence many votes anyway. He has not been able to show that he is in charge of the place; the Southwest in terms of votes. When the PDP won several times, Nigerians know what happened.

    “Don’t forget that the military tactically foisted Obasanjo on Nigeria and thereafter, the PDP continued to rig elections, until God decided that their time was up.

    “His endorsement of Atiku has no electoral value and this is what I call political somersault which does no credit to him.

    “Obasanjo did not only point out all the weaknesses of Atiku but went ahead to put them in his book. To now turn around to start saying a different thing means those he accused in his book may not have been done in good faith. This does not portray the former president in good light.

    “In fact, this is what I call political somersault and it does a lot of discredit to the person of Obasanjo”.

    All Progressives Congress (APC) National Vice Chairman Southsouth, Utufam Hilliard Eta said Obasanjo’s endorsement of Atiku would not affect the party’s fortunes in the 2019 election.

    He told reporters that “Obasanjo will be dimistified.”

    Eta said: “His (Obasanjo) endorsement has nothing to do with our (APC) victory in 2015. I know that politics is more of deception but I tell you that Obasanjo’s electoral value is little to nothing.

    “Remember that Obasanjo in all the elections lost from his ward level to everywhere. Obasanjo is more loved away than at home and like I said earlier, Obasanjo will be demystified.”

    On the presence of some religious leaders in Obasanjo’s home during the endorsement, he said: “One of the political wings of the PDP is one organisation called Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), so one is not surprised that CAN can do all they can do.”

     

  • Atiku: Obasanjo’s endorsement means nothing, Says APC

    …”He will be demystified”

     

    The All Progressives Congress (APC) has said that Thursday’s endorsement of Presidential candidate of the main opposition People Democratic Party (PDP) Alhaji Atiku Abubakar by the former President Olusegun Obasanjo will not in any way affect the fortunes of the party in the 2019 Presidential election.

    National Vice Chairman South south of the party, Utufam Hilliard ETA told newsmen on Thursday evening that the former President has lost political value saying his endorsement has no effect.

    Eta, who said the endorsement is not a threat to his party stated repeatedly: “Obasanjo will be dimistified.”

    When reminded that the same Obasanjo endorsed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2015 presidential election, Eta said: “His (Obasanjo) endorsement has nothing to do with our (APC) victory in 2015.

    Read Also: 2019: You’re next President of Nigeria, Obasanjo tells Atiku

    “I know that politics is more of deception but I tell you that Obasanjo’s electoral value is little to nothing. Remember that Obasanjo in all the elections lost from his ward level to everywhere. Obasanjo is more loved away than at home and like I said earlier, Obasanjo will be dimistfied.”

    On the presence of some religious leaders at Obasanjo’s home during the endorsement, the APC chieftain said: “One of the political wing of the PDP is one organisation called Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), so one is not surprised that CAN can do all they can do,” he said.

  • Buhari, Atiku, others and the road to 2019

    WERE you surprised that Atiku Abubakar snatched away the trophy at the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) convention in Port Harcourt?

    I wasn’t.

    Rivers State Governor Nyesom Wike raised hell when the party’s Board of Trustees (BoT) advised that the show be moved elsewhere. He vowed to “deal” with the party should that advice be taken. In fact, he viewed the advisory as a declaration of enmity against the Niger Delta. Apparently not willing to incur the wrath of His Excellency, the party agreed to go to Port Harcourt. The popular thinking was that with Port Harcourt as venue, Wike’s candidate just needed to be present to carry the day – by fair or foul means; by hook or crook; or by all means. Whatever.

    He was believed to be backing Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal. Tambuwal came a distant second, scoring 693 votes. Atiku got 1,532 votes.

    As I was saying, Atiku’s victory didn’t surprise me.. The former Vice President started early, moving from one state to the other. He is more experienced than the others, some of whom thought it was a town union election. An old war horse, a master of ambush –ask former President Olusegun Obasanjo; he reportedly knelt down for Atiku in a desperate bid for a second term –and a pragmatist who is well connected with the high and mighty even as he never disdains the humble company of the poor, Atiku is also a strategist of considerable weight.

    Since he got the ticket, the race has grown more exciting. Brickbats have been flying. Nobody is talking about the other candidates. Nor are they pushing any profound idea to lift our spirits. Just abuses. Political vitriol. There are scores of other candidates, products of the laissez faire that rules party formation.

    With remarkable glee, Atiku told Nigerians that they now have a choice. That sparked a fire in the Buhari camp. It shot back: “The Nigerian electorate deserves to be given a choice of decency, integrity and honour and not dirt, corruption and infamy. The choice between Buhari and Atiku is one between light and darkness; between positive change and business as usual; between transparency and under the table deals.”

    The Atiku camp rejoined: “The APC primary was a study in dictatorship and corruption. The sole candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, scored 15million votes. How could that occur without rigging or manufacturing of faceless votes?”

    Besides, the Atiku camp accused the Buhari Campaign of being confused. Really? There have been insinuations that Atiku may have had some integrity deficit. Is this the right time to push such arguments?

    In the shark-infested ocean that is our politics, does decency count for anything? Haven’t ideas been elbowed out by cheap populism and slandering? There are enough issues to convince Nigerians which party to fall in love with. Boko Haram, the economy, poverty alleviation, the anti-corruption war and more.

    It is not yet clear if the ceasefire ordered by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will be respected. The electoral agency has said it is not yet time for campaigns.

    Ordinary Nigerians who take advantage of the social media to laugh at our leaders are having fun. The rumour that the PDP ticket went to the highest bidder  became the subject of derisive jokes. Atiku was said to have, of course without proof, shelled out an incredible $5,000 per delegate.

    Before he could tell the world it is “a lie from the pit of hell”, the purveyors of that rumour, some of who swore that they were at the convention, claimed by their own arithmetic that the former Vice President must have spent N42billion. They did not stop at that; the Yoruba among them played on the PDP candidate’s name, Atiku, which when separated as “A ti ku” means “we are dead”. The clumsy logic, according to them, is that should Atiku becomes president,” we are all dead”..

    There were reports that Port Harcourt currency changers had their hands full, their offices flooded by crowds of emergency customers battling to change their dollar to naira. This sparked another joke couched around the slogans of the two major parties: “APC – Change; PDP – Bureau de Change.”

    The Buhari Campaign believes that with Atiku as PDP’s candidate its job has been made “easier”. I disagree – with due respect. Atiku is a formidable opponent, who you underrate at your own peril.

    Leaders of Afenifere – yes; they insist on their relevance – visited former President Olusegun Obasanjo on Tuesday. The visit sparked many speculations, chief of which was that they went pleading with Obasanjo to forgive Atiku and back him for president. Atiku won their heart with his promise to restructure Nigeria – in six months (that will be a global record in such matters).

    Obasanjo, you may wish to recall, had scoffed at an Atiku presidency as a joke. “I dey laugh o,” he said in 2015. And recently he swore that God would not forgive him if he backed Atiku. Atiku replied dismissively, saying if Obasanjo had any issue to settle with his God, he should go ahead and settle it without dragging his name into it.

    As I was saying, little attention has been paid to the other candidates, who are  eminent Nigerians in their own right. Take, for instance, His Excellency Donald “fine boy” Duke who won the Social Democratic Party (SDP) ticket. He deserves a chance. Although he shares the same first name with the United States President, he has none of his eccentricities. Affable, young and humorous, he will make a good leader.

    His critics claim that the former Cross River governor planted many white elephant projects; they failed to hail the vision that gave birth to those projects. I am sure that with Duke as president, every kid will get a free saxophone and music – love songs, street carnivals and all – will take its pride of place . Imagine your president jamming on Fridays and television stations beaming it all live.  “The Villa Show.”

    Mrs Oby Ezekwesili is also in the race – for the Allied Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN). Her candidature has elicited so much more excitement than many are willing to acknowledge. A pastor, critic, activist and former minister, Ezekwesili will no doubt make a good president. Her critics scorn her as “madam know-all”, perhaps on account of her vociferous bashing of the Buhari administration.

    All I know is that should Ezekwesili become president, the Chibok girls – are they still girls? – and their Dapchi counterparts will return within 100 days of the new administration and Boko Haram will become history,

    After the Labour Party (LP) denied him of its platform, former Ondo State Governor Olusegun Mimiko simply went to pick up, without breaking a sweat, the ticket of the Zenith Labour Party (ZLP). Those who lack a proper understanding of the workings of party formation and politics are asking: “ZLP; which one is so called?” “Is Iroko not running for Senate?”

    With a Mimiko presidency, no doubt, local fabric (adire) makers will reap a bounteous harvest for their toil as patronage will hit an all-time high.

    There are many others. Olapade Agoro (remember him?), the chairman of the National Action Council (NAC) who declared his ambition in February in the ancient city of Ibadan. So popular is he that till date nobody has contested the ticket with him.

    Lagos televangelist Kris Okotie is also in the race (he never misses it). He is the sole candidate of his Fresh Democratic Party (FRESH). He keeps running in the hope that one day, Nigerians will realise that salvation is not only a message for the pulpit; politics and politicians can also do with it.

    In the All Blending Party (ABP), there is a storm in a teacup. The BoT and the National Executive Council (NEC) are up in arms against the chairman, Moses Shipi, for declaring himself the party’s candidate. The party surely needs a blender.

    Ex-detainee and murder suspect Hamza Al-Mustapha, the late Gen. Sani Abacha’s torturer-in-chief before whom Gen. Oladipo Diya was said to be grovelling, saying, “save my life” after he had been roped into the phantom coup that sent Obasanjo to jail, is also on the ballot – courtesy of the Peoples Party of Nigeria (PPN).

    Candidates all: Omowole Sowore ,African Action Congress (AAC), John Ogbor, All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Yabagi Sani, Action  Democratic Party (ADP), Habu Aninchi, Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM), Chuks Nwachukwu, All Grassroots Alliance (AGA), Fela Durotoye, Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN), Kingsley Moghalu, Young Progressive Party (YPP), Prof Peter Nwangwu, We the People of Nigeria (WTPN) and Alistair Soyode, Yes Electorate Solidarity(YES).

    Ahmed Buhari, Sustainable National Party (SNP), Mrs Eunice Atuejide,National Interest Party (NIP), Alhaji Ibrahim Usman, National Rescue Movement of  Nigeria (NRM), Tope Kolade Fasuan, Abundance Nigeria Renewal Party (ANRP) and Edozie  Madu, Independent Democrats  (ID).

    Never has the Nigerian political landscape been this rich and exciting.

  • PDP condemns APC’s virulent attacks on Atiku

    The leadership of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has condemned what it described as virulent attacks on its presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

    The party also flayed similar comments by the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Alhaji Lai Mohammed as well as other officials of the Buhari Presidency.

    At a media briefing in Abuja on Wednesday, the spokesman for the PDP, Kola Ologbondiyan, decried what he viewed as deliberate efforts by agents of the ruling party to impugn on the character of Atiku Abubakar.

    Ologbondiyan said the APC and the Presidency are intimidated by the successful conduct of the PDP presidential primary and the emergence of Atiku Abubakar as presidential candidate of the main opposition party.

    Ologbondiyan said, “They have gone into panic mode and ignobly resorted to trading on rumour and spurious allegations, having failed in their evil machination to scuttle our presidential primary ambition.

    “The PDP is aware of how the unnerved and intimidated Buhari Presidency has unleashed its officials, spin doctors and hack writers with billions of naira, siphoned from our national treasury, to fabricate lies, spurious allegations and smear campaign against our presidential candidate.

    “While it is understandable that President Muhammadu Buhari is discomfited and afraid to face a popular candidate in any elections due to his incompetence, for which Nigerians earnestly seek his replacement, engaging in smear campaign, as a means of survival, is completely reprehensible and cowardly.

    “President Buhari and the APC, in their desperation, should not attempt to confuse personal economic prosperity that comes from hardwork, as in the case of Atiku Abubakar, with corrupt enrichment. That President Buhari failed in leading a successful personal economic life does not mean that others cannot succeed without being corrupt.

    “Furthermore, unlike President Buhari, who has failed in managing both private and public enterprises; who also confessed his failure to successfully manage his own farm and has made no personal contribution to our national development, our Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, is internationally known as a hard working, resourceful, versatile and successful private entrepreneur, a vast employer of labour; an ingenious citizen, who has made immeasurable contribution to our national development both in public and private lives.

    “It is therefore a heinous perversion for Lai Mohammed, who has earned himself a notoriety, to the extent Nigerians now replace his first name, ‘Lai’ with ‘lie’, to attempt to suggest that the choice of Atiku Abubakar is a return to era of corruption, whereas President Buhari is internationally reputed to be presiding over the most corrupt administration in the history of our nation”.

    The PDP spokesman reminded Alhaji Lai Mohammed that while Atiku has never been indicted for corruption or facing any corruption charge, President Buhari is overburdened by indictments and allegations of humongous corruption, for which he has failed to provide explanations.

    Continuing, the PDP said, “Since Lai Mohammed is talking about era of corruption, we charge him to speak up on the leaked memo detailing the stealing of N9 trillion ($25billion dollars) through underhand oil contract at the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and the Ministry of Petroleum, under President Buhari’s direct supervision.

    “Lai Mohammed should speak up on the alleged siphoning of N1.4 trillion through sleazy oil subsidy regimes and those benefitting from the alleged N58 hidden tax per liter which Nigerians have continued to bear since the fuel price increase from N87 to presumably unsubsidized cost of N145.

    “Lai Mohammed should speak up on why the Buhari Presidency is suppressing investigation into alleged use of 18 unregistered companies to lift and divert N1.1 trillion worth of crude oil in 2017 and the President’s alleged link with the beneficiaries of this fraud.

    “Can Lai Mohammed tell Nigerians how the Buhari era allegedly presided over the stealing of over N18 billion from the funds approved for rehabilitation of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and rebuilding of six northeast states ravaged by insurgency?

    “Can Lai Mohammed tell Nigerians how over N25 billion meant for health needs of Nigerians was stolen by the Presidency cabal from the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), and how the same cabal siphoned the $322 million repatriated by Switzerland, under the guise of sharing the funds to the poor?”.

    The main opposition party added that it’s only in an administration like the Buhari Presidency that thrives in lies and deception, that characters like Lai Mohammed, with his proclivities, can be appointed a Minister.

    “This is the same person, who nearly caused a national crisis when he, in May 2015, accused former President Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP of frustrating the activities of then Transition Committee only for the head of the APC team, Alhaji Ahmed Joda, to declare that that the team had all the cooperation from the PDP.

    Read Also: 2019 elections: Fresh controversy trails INEC budget

    “This is the same Lai Mohammed, who, in 2014, alleged that the PDP denied a plane carrying a state governor from landing in Ado Ekiti to attend the APC Governorship election rally in the state, only for the State Government to debunk the lie stating that the governor did not travel to Ekiti but was attending official functions in the state.

    “This is the same Minister that has not been able to explain the circumstances surrounding his attempt to obtain over N13 million from the National Broadcasting Corporation (NBC) under the mask of a ‘loan’, against budgetary approvals and principles of the Treasury Single Account (TSA)”.

    The PDP said that in as much as it remained committed to issue-based campaign ahead of 2019 elections, it will not by any means tolerate further lies and fabrications from the Buhari Presidency, particularly from agents “who have no ethical substance” to make allegations against any Nigerian.

    The party counseled the Buhari Presidency and the APC to shed their resort to lies, falsehood and smear campaign and get prepared to face an inevitable crushing defeat, come 2019.