Aside the presidency, being governor of Lagos State is one of the most powerful and prestigious political offices anyone can occupy in Nigeria – and for good reason too.
Lagos is the nation’s commercial capital and currently ranked the fifth largest economy in Africa –putting it ahead of over 40 countries on the continent. It equally outstrips the 35 other states in terms of revenue generation and overall economic performance.
Such is the depth of the state’s strength that in 2018 it generated 76% of its revenues internally. This amounted to about N34 billion monthly. Governor Akinwumi Ambode mid last year spoke of an aspiration to reduce the state’s dependence of federal revenues to less than 10%.
While these figures may seem impressive against the backdrop of 27 states being almost bankrupt, much of what it generates is also devoured by overheads, an ambitious infrastructure development programme and the challenges of catering for an ever surging population whose reveal numbers remain guesstimates.
State government statistics says 86 immigrants enter Lagos every minute of the day – the highest rate of any city in the world. That translates into 123,840 entrants on a daily basis and they come to stay.
This influx overwhelms whatever facilities are on the ground and outpaces the ability of the government to provide new ones. So while the city might look like one massive construction site, whatever is being built simply plays catch-up, but never catching-up.
This pattern will remain for as long as the rest of the country continues to struggle economically – leaving the city and to a lesser extent Abuja and Port Harcourt as the only centres of opportunity open to the desperate. This is the challenge that Governor-Elect, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, will inherit in a matter of weeks.
His rise was unscripted, as the incumbent Ambode was expected to have an easy ride to a second term courtesy of his ambitious vision for altering the face of the city. In the first two years, his aggressive opening up of the interior of the state as well as showpiece projects like the Abule-Egba and Ajah flyovers, the skywalk and bus terminals at Oshodi and elsewhere, marked him out as a man of action who was intent on outperforming his predecessor, Babatunde Fashola.
He was not only building big, he was equally providing solutions in certain areas of the city like Ojodu and Oworonsoki where traffic jams had become nightmarish. Unfortunately, it all went wrong suddenly.
Ultimately, his attempt to reform the process of clearing refuse in the city proved his undoing. In the Visionscape debacle his political skills were tested and he fell short. Just as the deal collapsed, the coalition that brought him to power gave way – and the rest is history.
Whatever may be Ambode’s legacy in terms of infrastructural development, he leaves for his successor a city that has regressed in so many ways.
Today, Lagos has become one of the dirtiest cities on the continent. This dubious distinction was something the Bola Tinubu and Fashola administrations had managed to bury.
The inability of the outgoing governor to crack the Visionscape logjam provides Sanwo-Olu with an opportunity for a quick win. The city stinks and is crying desperately for a clean-up. The world would sit up and notice if he can make the mounds of filth disappear.
To his credit, under Ambode violent crime remained relatively low. Ironically, it was also a period marked by unprecedented lawlessness on the roads and elsewhere. A drive on most Lagos roads is like engaging in mortal combat. You may escape with your life but your vehicle would be the worse for wear.
On any given day, from the tony environs of Ikoyi to the more prosaic parts of town, swarms of commercial motorcyclists (okada) and tricyclists unleash a reign of terror on the roads. Not satisfied with seizing the roads where the laws say they are officially barred, they now ride freely on pedestrian sidewalks! Driving against traffic, jumping the lights, is accepted practice. Frankly, on Lagos roads you can get away with murder – and not just in a figurative sense.
Compounding the sense of chaos is the collusion of security officials with delinquent commercial bus drivers and motorcyclists. It is really a lost battle when those who are supposed to enforce regulations are in bed with offenders.
Another maddening contradiction of the Ambode era is the fact that while embarking on these huge projects like the BRT lane from Abule-Egba to Oshodi, basic things like patching potholes on existing roads were left undone.
What used to be a tradition of constantly fixing failed portions of key arteries in the city has been abandoned. No area is exempt – not even the seat of government in Alausa.
The only reason these roads would be left in this condition is lack of funds. But a state that is able to finance multi-billion naira mega projects can spend a few billions fixing potholes if those governing care about the same things as the governed. The condition of roads – major and minor – is another crisis area Sanwo-Olu must address in a hurry.
Lagos is a city of contrasts where breath-taking opulence lives side-by-side with depressing poverty. The aforementioned swarms of commercial motorcyclists are not just a nuisance on the road: they are a constant reminder of the impoverished state of the larger population in the city.
That poverty is also on display in the form of street traders selling everything from fresh fruit to fire extinguishers taking over the rail tracks at Ikeja or the uncompleted BRT lane at Iyana-Ipaja as evening falls. The streets become a moving mall because the vendors – battling with daily survival – cannot afford regular stalls in proper markets.
This poverty is another reason why the okada problem has defied solution. Although they provide transport solutions for people who wish to move swiftly along the clogged roads, they are now one of the major employers of labour in the city. The numbers in operation are probably in the tens of thousands. To eliminate them would require the creations of tens of thousands of jobs otherwise many would take to a life of crime.
The ability of the government to create jobs for such a large number is limited. But the new administration can encourage the private sector to generate employment by ditching policies that are not pro-business or those that deter the would-be entrepreneur. In this context, multi-taxation by different levels of government in the state needs to be addressed.
It is no exaggeration to say that if Lagos works, Nigeria works. For the city to be better than it is now, the incoming governor and his team must outgrow the smug satisfaction of being better endowed than less-favoured states, and focus on transforming the city into a truly world class metropolis.
That begins with dealing with the problem of lawlessness and ensuring that basic rules are obeyed. Lagos cannot be a jungle where anything goes, if it truly aspires to be something special. The Eko o ni baje slogan must move beyond a fond wish and become active impulse that drives how people live.
That requires a measure of ruthlessness. The governor-elect looks like a nice guy – all smiles and charm. But in Lagos nice guys don’t win, unless their external veneer hides an iron will. Until Fashola, Oshodi was a transport hub notorious for crime, grime and gridlock. But with steely determination he tamed it. Does Sanwo-Olu possess that same streak? His actions would shortly speak for themselves.