After what must rank as the most extraordinary feat of realpolitik ever, former Ekiti State governor, Ayo Fayose, has been made the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) standard-bearer in the June 2014 governorship election in the state. The choice before the party big wigs in Abuja was to either get Mr Fayose elected or appointed as candidate. In the circumstance, neither election nor appointment was applicable or appropriate. He had to be made a candidate by the most pernicious sleight of hand the party could muster. With his coronation on March 22, a crowning that is unlikely to be overturned notwithstanding the grumblings from within the state PDP and from among those who contested the ticket with him, Mr Fayose will in June take on Governor Kayode Fayemi for the now ennobled governorship seat of Ekiti State.
Mr Fayose, it will be recalled, ran a populist campaign from 2001 to 2003 to win the governorship seat. But he was impeached in 2006, a year before his first term in office came to an end. The feisty 53-year-old is a study in irony. He has been out of power for about seven years now, and he tends so easily to overreach himself, not to say exaggerate his puny gifts. In his rather violent but abridged first term, he enunciated and implemented horrendously amateurish policies. Not only did he do very poorly in his three years in office, he also reacted very badly to challenges to his power in the typically intolerant fashion of African rulers.
Though Mr Fayose is still being tried for alleged corrupt practices, it is striking that the same PDP – not a different PDP – has found him a fit and proper person to fly their flag in the coming poll. The manner of his emergence itself may have been dubious, and his opponents in the party either weak and ineffective or embarrassingly ingratiating and unprincipled, however, party bigwigs at the state and national levels have curiously and even joyfully turned a blind eye to the strong-arm tactics he employed in muscling his co-contestants into submission. This has prompted many commentators to judge the real objectives of the party in the Ekiti election to be both deceptively intrusive and brutally detached. It must take a huge dose of cavalier politics, they argue, to plot such intrusive machination, and unprincipled indifference to ignore the salient implications of being represented by a man apparently so shorn of ideas and honour as Mr Fayose.
The only explanations for this strange choice of candidate seem to be located in the unearthly inability of the PDP federal government to be identified with noble ideas and standards. First, it is suggested that what the PDP hopes to achieve is not really to win the governorship, but to have a fighting chance of winning sizeable votes for the presidential election in 2015. If this was the aim, the party would still need a man with some dignity and noble carriage, not to say common sense or native wisdom to prise a healthy amount of votes from the ruling party in the state. It is also suggested that having dismissed Mr Fayose’s co-contestants as incapable of discomfiting the more cerebral Dr Fayemi, the Jonathan presidency was prepared to embrace a roughneck. Since Dr Fayemi is expected to conventionally assail his opponents with much learning and self-assurance, the PDP probably guessed that only a southpaw, a brute and a scoundrel could unhorse him.
The choice of Mr Fayose is however more importantly a reflection of the nature and character of the PDP and the Jonathan presidency. The two entities reinforce each other’s callous disregard for sane and elevated politics. They are obviously not thinking in terms of the great heights the country should aspire to, or of the fine ideas it should project. The image of Mr Fayose is settled. No one disputes his mediocrity or his predilections for strong-arm tactics, or even, as evidenced by his last days in office, of his lack of coordination and composure and of his inebriated and insensate gibberish under pressure. What is in dispute, in effect, are what strange motives gingered the Jonathan presidency into abandoning all pretence to principles, principles the president says are anchored on his frantic Pentecostal theology.
There is a general consensus that Mr Fayose indecently and brutishly secured the candidacy of the PDP for the Ekiti poll. There is also hardly a whisper against the open and indisputable fact that he is the wrongest candidate to represent the PDP in the election. If the state and national PDP expect him to win, they have not disclosed on what ideas, past achievements or even penitence they base their expectations. Mr Fayose has not propounded any idea, nor can he, for he is incapable of the robustness and sophistication that Ekiti has managed to acquire in the past few years. As for achievements, there is none for him to showcase, and he cannot dredge up any even by the uncanniest abracadabra. As far as remorse goes, he has sworn to some sort of personal conversion without indicating exactly in what areas of his indistinguishable worldview he practices newness of life, and has also sworn to some sort of maturity without demonstrating any practical evidence of the wisdom that sometimes comes with age.
If normality prevails, Ekiti is unlikely to dignify Mr Fayose with even 10 percent of the votes. (See box). They were grossly mistaken about him in 2003; they won’t like to be caught with pants down again or, after having achieved some sanity and enviable heights in decorous politics, succumb to the lure and fantasies of the juvenile politics propagated by Mr Fayose. However, his entrance into the race and the helping hand the federal forces are expected to give him, are likely to make the June poll a two-horse race between the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the PDP. For all his faults, Mr Fayose is a colourful politician, exuberant, gregarious but simple-minded. These attributes are unlikely to be vitiated by his mediocre ideas and lack of philosophical depth. And so, he will draw attention with his egregious remarks, whip whatever crowd he is able to rent into some animated frenzy, and hope, like his PDP counterparts in Osun State, that whenever he foments trouble, Abuja will back him up.
The logic of Nigerian politics favours the ruling party in any state except where its performance is woeful. The APC government in Ekiti has brought a lot of practical and implementable novelties to the state. On account of its programmes and projects, the party is certain to receive a good hearing. And having been governed for about four years by probably the most cerebral governor in the country, and notwithstanding the poor finances of the state, Ekiti is not expected to want to fix a problem that does not exist. So, where does this leave the Labour Party whose ambitious candidate is the former ACN/APC man, Opeyemi Bamidele? My guess is that he will be strangulated in the middle. The APC and PDP will hug all the limelight, and the LP candidate will be left in the shadow of the two, shouting himself hoarse and receiving little hearing and sunlight. It is possible Mr Bamidele indeed has a great programme for Ekiti and a passion to do right by the state, but he has the misfortune of facing in one election both a performing APC governor and a federally-backed and boisterously loud PDP candidate. His timing is appalling, and his haste exposes to his many admirers a great flaw in his character – an unwholesome and devastating lack of a sense of proportion.
Dr Fayemi is of course not impeccable. He incredulously began his re-election campaign even before he became the candidate of his party, thereby indicating unnecessary overconfidence. His opponents may have no democratic credentials whatsoever, but he himself will need to polish his democratic credentials, for his distinguishing qualities, nobility and definitive and futuristic leadership claims rest on those credentials. In a country rife with false democrats and open and closet tyrants, Dr Fayemi’s blots are unlikely to diminish his campaign, let alone threaten his anticipated victory. But he must be acutely aware of the need to project his democratic credentials and beliefs with deep, effortless and philosophical conviction. His admirers must not sense that these values are merely expedient rather than intrinsic.
If peaceful elections can be guaranteed – a tall order given the presence of Mr Fayose – the June poll may even end up an anticlimax. Mr Fayose’s scaremongering and PDP’s chicanery can only be effective in a close race. With the passage of years, Ekiti voters have become more aware of their environment than during the Fayose or former Governor Segun Oni years. They will forcefully try to sustain the heights they have attained nationally, for the alternative will be too grim for them to contemplate.
