Nine years ago, I read a report about Swedish parliamentarians debating the expansion of pedestrian tracks and increasing the number of paid government supported professionals providing homework support for school children in their homes! For someone living in Nigeria, a country where the states of most roads are nothing to write home about, discussing pedestrian tracks seemed ‘trivial.’ For the records, Sweden is a developed country with one of the best welfare system in the world.
Last month, the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs released “The World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision. The document is quite instructive, especially for Nigeria because it provides a comprehensive review of global demographic trends and prospects for the future. It is also expected to serve as an essential guide to policies aimed at achieving the new Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Recollect that Nigeria did not meet most of the goals of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG).
Why should we be concerned about this report? “Among the ten largest countries worldwide, Nigeria is growing the most rapidly. Consequently, the population of Nigeria, currently the world’s 7th largest, is projected to surpass that of the United States and become the third largest country in the world shortly before 2050.”
For a country that hardly plans, this should worry us more than anything; but of course, that’s not our “problem” right now when there are more “serious” problems of politics and “it’s our turn” to produce the president about to begin. Is it a surprise that over three decades after the construction of the Lagos-Ibadan expressway we are still battling to fix or “reconstruct” that all important road? As with that road so it is with other critical infrastructure.
The population issue is a ticking time bomb the country has to start thinking about seriously because of the problem of unemployment – which itself is ‘patiently’ waiting for a spark to ignite it. Last month, two revolutionaries – Bill Gates (Microsoft) and Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook) – spoke. When such individuals speak, it pays to listen. What they spoke about is directly connected to the issue of population explosion.
Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates, who built billion-dollar technology companies in two very different areas, see more seismic problems ahead. At his recent Harvard University commencement speech, Zuckerberg said: “Our generation will have to deal with tens of millions of jobs replaced by automation like self-driving cars and trucks. When our parents graduated, purpose reliably came from your job, your church, your community. But today, technology and automation are eliminating many jobs. Membership in communities is declining. Many people feel disconnected and depressed, and are trying to fill a void.”
For us, that “void” has manifested in the increasing cases of kidnapping, armed robbery, cultist activities, ritual killing, excessive gambling and a plethora of societal problems.
Gates, on the other hand, said: “I just want to say one word to you. That word would likely be robots.” His point? Robots are already taking jobs meant for humans. It won’t be an overstatement to assert that we’re already feeling the pangs of unemployment.
We should all be concerned because population explosion may be considered positive hindrance in the way of economic development of a country because of the pressures it put on infrastructure and other facilities. In a ‘capital poor’ and technologically backward country like Nigeria, growth of population reduces output by lowering the per capita availability of capital.
Due to higher birth rate and low expectation, the percentage of dependents is very high. A large part of the population is in the non-productive group which simply consumes and does not produce anything. The rapid growth of population thus diminishes the availability of capital per head which reduces the productivity of the labour force. Income is reduced because it caters for the “consumers” thereby curtailing the capacity to save which, in turn, adversely affects capital formation.
A rapidly growing population increases the requirements of demographic investment which at the same time reduces the capacity of the people to save. Beyond corruption, our investment requirements are going beyond our investing capacity. I visited a teaching hospital recently and I was silently weeping. I couldn’t believe what I saw; this use to be a centre of excellence in the past but is now a “mere consulting clinic,” (apologies to Gen. Joshua Dogonyaro).
This creates a serious imbalance between investment requirements and the availability of investible funds. Mismanagement aside, the volume of investment is determined by the rate of population growth in an economy. Visit a normal maternity clinic in any of our general hospitals and you’d be amazed by what you’ll see – doctors and facilities are stretched beyond breaking point.
What about per capita availability of capital. It is apparent that the large size of population also reduces per capita availability of capital. This is true in respect of underdeveloped countries where capital is scarce and its supply is inelastic. A rapidly growing population leads to a progressive decline in the availability of capital per worker. This further leads to lower productivity while diminishing returns set in.
Rapid growth of population directly effects per capita income in an economy. Up to ‘income optimizing level’, the growth of population increases per capita income; but beyond that it necessarily lowers the same. In a sense, so long as the rate of population growth is lower than the per capita income, rate of economic growth will rise but if population growth exceeds the rate of economic growth, usually found in the case of Nigeria, per capita income must fall.
Right from the 1980s when the Shagari administration introduced “austerity measures” to present day, the issue has remained the same. Our rapid growth in population means the economy cannot provide employment for majority of citizens. In fact, the number of job seekers is expanding so fast that despite all efforts towards planned development, it has not been possible to provide employment to all. Unemployment, underemployment and disguised employment are common features. The rapidly rising population makes it almost impossible to solve their problem of unemployment.
Beyond mere numbers, increased population means more mouths to feed which, in turn, creates pressure upon available stock of food. This is the reason countries in this bracket are generally faced with a problem of food shortage – except for countries like The US which has successfully used technology to solve its food problem.
Food scarcity effects economic development in two respects. Firstly, inadequate supply of food leads to undernourishment of the people which lowers their productivity. It further reduces the production capacity of the workers, Secondly; the deficiency of food compels to import food which places as unnecessarily strain on foreign exchange resources. No doubt, we are all familiar with this.
The growth of population is relatively very high in rural areas and it has disturbed the land/man ratio. Further it has increased the problem of disguised unemployment and reduced per capita farm product. More people mean more houses; more houses mean more land, more land for houses shrinks farming land. Added to this deadly mix is the issue of herdsmen. Thousands of people have been killed as a result of clashes between farmers and herdsmen. The reality on ground is that states are enacting anti grazing bills to compel herdsmen to ranch their cattle.
If the country cannot get a handle on the farmers/herdsmen clashes, the result would manifest in low farm productivity which will itself reduce the propensity to save and invest. This is largely responsible for the perpetuation of vicious circle of poverty in the country. On account of rapid growth of population people are required to spend a major part of their income on feeding their children. With little improvement in agricultural and industrial technology, shortage of essential commodities, low standard of living, mass unemployment etc, the vicious circle of poverty will continue.
Finally, rapid population growth leads to the environmental change. Due to this, a large number of people may be pushed to ecologically sensitive areas such as hill sides and tropical forests. It leads to the cutting of forests for cultivation leading to several environmental changes. This results in polluted air, water, noise and population in big cities and towns.
