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Tag: Budget 2025

  • Fed Govt allays fear over threat to Budget 2025 implementation

    Fed Govt allays fear over threat to Budget 2025 implementation

    • Expert cautions against delayed fiscal execution, dependence on oil price

    Despite headwinds, Budget 2025 will be implemented to achieve its objectives, Federal Government sources said yesterday.

    A drastic drop in oil price and delayed take-off, among other factors, are threatening the N54.99 trillion Appropriation Act.

    An official said there was no cause for worry because the government can easily adjust to the international oil price fluctuations.

    Besides, the official said the lifespan of the capital component of last year’s budget was pro-actively extended till next month by the National Assembly to take care of such shocks.

    A source said: “Critical steps are already in motion to ensure that the budget is not derailed. The National Assembly took proactive measures by extending the lifespan of the capital component of the 2024 budget until June.

    “This extension was aimed at ensuring continuity in funding for projects that are already underway. The idea was to focus on ongoing projects. So, there is no cause for alarm about 2025 Budget implementation.”

    The Nation further learnt that implementation of budgets begins with the procurement process, which the source explained, could take four to five months before the award of contracts.

    He said: “This timeline accounts for the perceived slow pace of the 2025 Budget rollout. Implementation is a process that begins with procurement. Usually, that takes averagely four to five months before the actual award of contract.”

    On whether the government was paying attention to the capital expenditure side of the budget, the government insider pointed out that “the recurrent component of the 2025 Budget is in effect. This has kept essential government operations running smoothly.

    “The recurrent component of the budget is being implemented. Otherwise, government operations would have been grounded to a halt. So, it’s incorrect to say that the 2025 Budget is not being implemented.”

    There are concerns about oil price volatility. In the Budget 2025 Appropriation Act, oil price is pegged at $75 per barrel but as at yesterday, it was sold at $61.5 per barrel.

    An official said there was no cause for alarm.

    He dismissed such fluctuations as a familiar challenge.

    According to the source, Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Atiku Bagudu, had explained that the budget remains an estimate that can be adjusted as conditions require.

    “Oil price volatility is not a new phenomenon. The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning has responded several times to this issue. Budget is essentially an estimate that could be adjusted as the situation demands,” he explained.

    Acknowledging that oil remains the dominant source of revenue, the official indicated that the government is taking aggressive steps to diversify and boost revenue collection.

    A major focus, he revealed, is on increasing crude oil production, a responsibility now firmly placed on the shoulders of the newly appointed board and management of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).

    Read Also: Bagudu: why Tinubu raised Budget 2025 by N4.52 trillion

    “Oil might be the major source of revenue, but there are other sources. The government’s response would be to ramp up production. This is one of the targets given to the new management of the NNPCL,” he stated.

    He said that the President Bola Tinubu administration had from the outset prioritised increased production and lower production costs as twin goals for the petroleum sector.

    The source explained: “The underlying objectives of the Bola Tinubu administration are to increase production and reduce the cost of production. The new board and management of the NNPCL have been saddled with this responsibility with timelines.

    “Apart from oil, attention is now being shifted to non-oil sector as alternative sources of revenue. The government is actively working through the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) and various government-owned enterprises to step up revenue collection.

    “Revenue collection is being ramped up to ensure the budget is funded appropriately. The FIRS and Customs Service, as well as government-owned enterprises, have been charged to up their game. There is nothing to panic about.”

     The tax reform due to come into place after passage by the Senate this month, in concurrence with the passage of the tax bills by the House of Representatives, will also widen the tax net and bring in more revenue without additional tax burden on the people.

    This will enhance better funding for Budget 2025.

    Managing Director,  Ambosit Capital Managers, Dr. Wahab Balogun, called for urgent fiscal reforms and accelerated implementation measures to avert economic stagnation.

    He explained that for Nigeria to achieve inclusive growth, fiscal discipline must return to the center of public finance. “We cannot afford another year of delayed implementation and dependence on oil price ,” he warned.

    Reacting to the government’s efforts to shore up revenue through the FIRS, NCS and  and various Government-Owned Enterprises (GOEs),  Balogun said the current oil price of $61.45 per barrel, which is significantly lower than the $75 benchmark in the 2025 budget, presents a serious fiscal challenge.

    According to him, the government must now look beyond oil. He stressed the need to broaden the non-oil revenue base and enhance compliance across the tax system. He urged the FIRS to intensify digital tax administration and enforce the Finance Act provisions on tax remittance and withholding obligations.

    He said: “The government must accelerate the implementation of the tax harmonization roadmap recommended by the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee.”

    He also noted that the Nigeria Customs Service must become more efficient in blocking leakages, curbing smuggling, and ensuring full implementation of border revenue policies.

    He added: “Customs modernization is no longer optional; it’s a necessity. Streamlining duty waivers and enforcing compliance at all entry points will significantly boost collections.”

    On the role of GOEs, Balogun argued that many of these enterprises underperform due to weak corporate governance. He stressed that the government must commercialize and hold GOEs accountable, pointing out that only a handful remit any meaningful surplus. “This is a missed opportunity in an economy trying to close a growing fiscal gap,” he said.

    He further advised the government to aggressively pursue public-private partnerships (PPPs), asset monetization, and cost-cutting reforms. According to him, through agencies like the Infrastructure Concession Regulatory Commission (ICRC) and the Bureau of Public Enterprises (BPE), the administration can unlock significant value by concessioning dormant assets and scaling back non-essential expenditure.

    On the delayed implementation of the 2025 budget, Balogun expressed concern that the extension of the capital component of the 2024 budget until June 2025 could undermine fiscal stability and policy coherence. While acknowledging that the extension is legally permitted, he argued that it distorts the budget cycle and hampers the timely execution of new projects.

    “We’re already in May and no funds have been released for 2025 capital projects. This creates uncertainty for investors, contractors, and even states relying on federation account flows,” he noted.

    Balogun called for the immediate release of 2025 recurrent funds and urged the Budget Office to publish the implementation framework without further delay. He also recommended a performance audit of the 2024 capital budget to identify dormant or slow-moving projects, which can then be reallocated to critical areas once the June deadline lapses.

    He insisted on the need to harmonize budget approval, procurement, and project execution timelines to reduce the incidence of rollovers, while also urging the National Assembly to strengthen its oversight role to ensure that MDAs fully utilize their allocations within the budget year.

  • Budget 2025

    Budget 2025

    • The Federal Government must prioritise fiscal discipline and implementation

    One way to evaluate the Federal Government’s Budget 2025 presented by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to the  National Assembly on December 18 is to look at the scale of its ambitions. Aside from a significant increase by a whopping 74.18 percent from Y2024 budget of N27.5tr, the 2025 budget titled “Budget of Restoration: Securing Peace, Rebuilding Prosperity,” with a proposal of N49.7tr expenditure, is clear about its ambitions.

    For instance, with inflation at a record level of 34.6 percent, the budget seeks to bring the monster down to 15 percent. For the exchange rate, it projects N1,500 to the US dollar against the current N1,700.  In the same vein, it envisages an increase in crude oil production to 2.06 million barrels per day from the current year’s 1,780 million bpd.

    Expectedly, the president was careful to lay out the basis of his optimism.  He highlighted the reduced importation of petroleum products alongside increased export of finished petroleum products; the bumper harvests, driven by enhanced security, reduced reliance on food imports; the increased foreign exchange inflows through Foreign Portfolio Investments; and the higher crude oil output and exports, coupled with a substantial reduction in upstream oil and gas production costs – developments, which more than mere projections, are verifiable.

    To these, he adds our foreign reserves currently standing at nearly $42bn; and the trade surplus, standing at N5.8tr, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Hence his submission that the budget, though “ambitious,” is “necessary…to secure our future.”

    The budget is also very clear about its strategic priorities: defence and security, understandably, takes the lion’s share of N4.91tr, followed by infrastructure N4.06tr, health N2.48tr, and education N3.52tr. On the flip side, it projects N15.81tr for debt servicing, with N13.08tr, or 3.89 percent of GDP, as deficit.

    The budget, the president said, seeks to consolidate the key policies already instituted to restructure the economy, boost human capital development, increase the volume of trade and investments, bolster oil and gas production, get the country’s manufacturing sector humming again and ultimately increase the competitiveness of the economy.

    However, nothing in the budget outlook suggests that it is all gloss. In fact, it is quite easy to recognise a number of significant hurdles ahead. For instance, in dollar terms, the budget actually contracts by 23.22 per cent, from $36.7bn in 2024 to $28.18bn in 2025. The implication is that there could be constraints regarding how much could be done particularly concerning projects that have foreign input components.

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    Besides, whereas the projected N30tr in revenue based on an oil price target of $75 per barrel and a production target of 2.06 million barrels per day might seem realistic given the relative calm in the Niger Delta, the production target would appear unduly optimistic considering that OPEC actually reported that the country’s oil production reached just 1.4mbpd in October.

     Moreover, despite significant progress in combating crude oil theft, pipeline vandalism, and underinvestment, there still remains genuine apprehension about whether or not the two million barrels per day production target could be said to be realistic in the short term.

    Added to the above is the debt factor. Here again, the issue essentially is about ensuring deft management of the debt in such a way as not to further exacerbate the burden. And finally, issues of rising inflation and currency depreciation – two factors inextricably linked to the erosion of the purchasing power of not just the budget but of individual households, given their direct impact on its effectiveness, particularly for essential imports and capital expenditure. All of these are significant variables whose interplay would affect the budget in one way or another. 

    Of course, there is the challenge of implementation. This is where the Federal Government has a lot to do. We expect not only fiscal discipline across all levels of government but also commitment to budget implementation. In this respect, the admonition of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) is instructive: “Beyond the figures and assumptions, implementation would remain the budget’s key performance driver.”

    Surely, the 2025 budget, perhaps unlike those before it, will be judged, not so much on dry statistics of performances and capital releases, but by the extent to which it is able to address, in a significant way, the familiar and lingering issues that may – while rendering the larger economy prostrate – prevent its fruits from trickling down to the ordinary citizen.

    Among the issues needing urgent attention are the food and energy supply chain that has kept food prices unbearably high, the security situation, which although has improved, still requires more to be done to boost the confidence of the farming population, the provision of vital farm inputs and infrastructure to boost output and to lessen the drudgery of farm work. Others are the delivery of the local petroleum production projects, and the fostering of the much talked about alignment between monetary and fiscal policies to restore confidence in the naira and to ease inflationary pressures. In short, Nigerians expect the ongoing improvements in the business climate, which have begun to deliver commendable results, to be sustained.

     The bureaucracy – the engine room of the government – has its work cut out. A lot has been said about how much its rules actually end up stifling productivity, particularly with its officials, more often than not, choosing to see the rules as ends in themselves consequent upon which nothing gets done. We are referring to the same set of rules that would not suffice to prevent humongous amounts being taken out of the system only for the deeds to be discovered after they have been done. Nigerians expect that the bureaucracy will be on top of its game to assist the government to deliver on the objectives of the budget.