As Nigeria grapples with economic challenges ranging from fiscal deficits to poverty and underinvestment, the role of the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning has never been more critical.
In the last one year, Senator Abubakar Bagudu has had to navigate a complex landscape marked by financial constraints and evolving governance structures. However, Bagudu has made significant strides in restoring confidence in Nigeria’s budgeting process and management.
A veteran in the corridors of power
When Bagudu was sworn in on August 21, 2024, as the Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, the challenges before him were immense. The Nigerian economy, battered by years of mismanagement, global economic downturns, an opaque budgeting process and domestic instability, was teetering on the edge of collapse.
The mission was clear: to manage the budget along with all the shenanigans that come with it, design and manage an economic planning agenda that set the country on a growth trajectory in the near future for attracting both domestic and foreign investments.
For Bagudu, the role was not entirely new. His deep roots in the nation’s economic planning were first established decades earlier when he served as a special assistant to the then Minister of National Planning, Mr. Kalu Idika Kalu, under the military regime of President Ibrahim Babangida.
During that period, Bagudu gained firsthand experience in the intricate workings of Nigeria’s economic policies, learning from one of the most respected economists in the country. This early exposure laid the groundwork for his understanding of the complex dynamics of national budgeting and economic planning.
Upon assuming office as Minister, Bagudu, after serving eight years as governor of Kebbi state did not hesitate to dive into the task at hand. Drawing from his extensive experience, he quickly began the process of planning the economy through systematic budgeting and building consensus around issues of national concern.
His approach was both pragmatic and inclusive, recognising that in order to stabilize the economy, it was essential to align the interests of various stakeholders—including government agencies, private sector players, and international partners.
Bagudu’s leadership style was marked by a balance of firmness and collaboration. He understood the importance of consensus in a democratic setting, especially in a country as diverse as Nigeria. His first few months in office were spent engaging with different sectors of the economy, identifying critical areas that needed immediate intervention, and setting the groundwork for long-term economic stability.
Mastering the art of legislative negotiation
Bagudu’s deep understanding of legislative processes proved to be one of his most significant assets. His previous experience as a federal legislator was instrumental in the successful negotiation and passage of the 2023 Supplementary Budgets and the 2024 fiscal estimates, all of which were accomplished with a level of harmony previously unseen in such exercises.
The 2024 Budget, which was submitted to the National Assembly, marked a turning point in Nigeria’s fiscal planning. Bagudu ensured that the budget was presented on schedule. This achievement was crucial in maintaining the January-December budget cycle—a goal that had often eluded previous administrations. The President’s timely assent to the budget on January 1, 2024, was a testament to the efficiency of the planning process under Bagudu’s leadership.
The N28.77 trillion budget for 2024 was designed to address some of the most pressing economic challenges facing Nigeria. One of its primary objectives was to reduce the fiscal deficit, a critical step in supporting broader macroeconomic reforms aimed at attracting investment and increasing government revenue.
Bagudu’s budget also emphasised increasing capital expenditure, which was seen as essential for stimulating economic growth and development. Moreover, significant allocations were made to support vulnerable populations affected by ongoing reforms, ensuring that the government’s economic policies were inclusive and socially responsible.
Perhaps most notable was Bagudu’s ability to secure the passage of the 2023 Supplementary Budgets, a task that required deft negotiation and a deep understanding of the legislative process. The first of these supplementary budgets, totaling N819 billion, was re-negotiated to focus on critical areas such as agriculture, energy transition, and the provision of credit support to Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) through the Presidential Conditional Grant to Nano Businesses initiative. This budgetary adjustment was vital in addressing immediate economic needs and supporting sectors with the potential for rapid growth.
Bagudu also navigated the complexities of securing approval for an additional N2.17 trillion Supplementary Budget in 2023. This budget targeted essential areas such as security, infrastructure development (including roads and projects in the Federal Capital Territory), agriculture, and public sector wage awards. The inclusion of cash transfer provisions was particularly significant, as it underscored the government’s commitment to cushioning the impact of economic reforms on the most vulnerable Nigerians.
In 2024, the passage of the N6.2 trillion Amendment Act was another feather in Bagudu’s cap. This budget amendment focused on providing counterpart and equity contributions for the Renewed Hope Infrastructure Projects, which are critical to the government’s long-term development strategy. Additionally, it provided for an increase in the minimum wage, which was a crucial step towards improving the living standards of public servants. Further allocations were made for water, irrigation, and dam development, as well as for agriculture and food security initiatives—areas that are central to Nigeria’s economic sustainability.
The ease with which Bagudu was able to navigate these complex negotiations and secure the passage of multiple budgets and amendments without the usual rancor speaks to his political acumen and deep understanding of both the legislative process and the needs of the Nigerian economy.
His ability to align the priorities of the executive with those of the legislature ensured that the government’s fiscal policies were implemented smoothly and efficiently, setting a new standard for budgetary negotiations in Nigeria.
Speaking at a press conference in Abuja, Bagudu said “innovative provisions” in the budget were designed to wean the government of some activities that the private sector is best suited to handle. Top on the list of innovative budgetary items is the N100 billion consumer credit facilities designed to help the manufacturing sector grow.
“We put N100 billion funds in the budget to support consumer credit, this is important because to us the manufacturing sector is both struggling with inefficiency of production and inability to find someone who can buy. The introduction and support of consumer credit we believe will help in the revival of our manufacturing sector to meet up to global standards; it is a fund that is expected to grow,” he assured.
Ensuring accountability and strategic alignment in capital projects
Recognising the challenges in executing capital projects efficiently, Bagudu focused on monitoring and evaluating these projects against the National Development Plan (NDP) targets. The 2023 Capital Budget Appropriation, which allocated significant funds to infrastructure, healthcare, and education, was central to the government’s strategy for economic growth.
This is just as Bagudu oversaw the monitoring of over 500 federal projects to ensure they were completed on time, within budget, and met the expected quality standards.
A significant initiative under Bagudu’s leadership was the development of the Eyemark application, designed to enhance transparency and public accountability in governance. This platform allowed citizens to provide real-time feedback on federal projects in their localities, helping the government identify issues like delays, substandard work, or corruption more efficiently.
The monitoring efforts were not only about ensuring proper funds usage but also about aligning government spending with the broader goals of the NDP 2021-2025, which included economic diversification and social inclusion. However, with the change in administration in 2023, the NDP required revisions to reflect President Bola Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda.”
Under Bagudu’s leadership, the review and revision of the National Development Plan to accommodate the President’s eight priorities and the Renewed Hope Agenda were swiftly undertaken. By the first anniversary of his tenure, this revision process was 95 percent complete, reflecting the administration’s determination to ensure that Nigeria’s development strategies remained relevant and responsive to the needs of its people. The updated plan aimed to harmonise the federal government’s capital projects with the strategic objectives outlined in the Renewed Hope Agenda, ensuring that every naira spent contributed to the broader goals of economic recovery, growth, and social welfare.
Bagudu’s efforts to monitor capital projects and revise the NDP fostered a culture of accountability in the government. By aligning spending with objectives and involving citizens in oversight, he ensured impactful and sustainable investments. These initiatives improved public spending efficiency and boosted public confidence. Bagudu’s focus on accountability and strategic planning laid the foundation for effective governance, where public resources are managed judiciously and development is inclusive for all citizens.
Advancing poverty reduction and social services
In his first year as Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Bagudu placed a significant emphasis on addressing Nigeria’s multifaceted poverty challenges and enhancing job creation through the implementation of the National Poverty Reduction with Growth Strategy (NPRGS).
Understanding the complex nature of poverty in Nigeria, which spans beyond mere income deficiency to include access to basic services and opportunities, Bagudu coordinated efforts across relevant Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) in all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
A key component of the NPRGS was its coordination with state governments to ensure that the programme’s interventions were tailored to the specific needs of different regions. In 2023, a total of N438.3 billion was reimbursed to the FCT and 34 states under the NPRGS, demonstrating the federal government’s commitment to providing financial support for state-level poverty alleviation initiatives. The programme also benefited from a $750 million credit portfolio, which was instrumental in funding various poverty reduction projects across the country.
One of the early successes of the NPRGS was the creation of 67,038 jobs during the first phase of its 2023 implementation. These jobs were primarily generated through initiatives aimed at boosting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), enhancing agricultural productivity, and developing local industries.
By focusing on job creation, Bagudu sought to address the root causes of poverty, particularly unemployment and underemployment, which have long plagued the Nigerian economy.
Under Bagudu’s leadership, significant achievements were made in addressing poverty in Nigeria. The implementation of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) Report’s recommendations led to targeted interventions that improved access to social services, education, and healthcare for vulnerable populations. Bagudu also focused on transparency and accountability by publishing the Performance Report of Nigeria’s Economy, which evaluated the effectiveness of government policies and programmes and informed subsequent decisions.
Bagudu adopted a bottom-up strategy in governance, working from the grassroots level up to local government areas to ensure interventions were responsive to community needs. Joint planning board and national council development planning meetings played a crucial role in coordinating planning at the subnational level and aligning strategies with national development goals. Bagudu also commissioned a study on the effects of fuel subsidy removal and utilised its recommendations to design social safety net programmes and mitigate economic hardships faced by Nigerians.
Infrastructure development and private investment were prioritised, with the ministry identifying bankable projects for implementation through public-private partnerships. The coordination of the NG-CARES programme across states provided relief and economic stimulus to those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, transitioning to focus on building resilience for the poor and vulnerable. Nutrition was another critical area of focus, with the formation of committees at the national and state levels to prioritise nutrition and food security in development planning.
The Ministry, under Bagudu’s leadership, effectively coordinated the implementation of the United Nations Food Systems Transformation Pathways across Nigeria’s 36 states. This involved active participation from key Commissioners and the Secretariat of the NCN, facilitating engagement with faith-based leaders to launch key messages on Maternal, Infant, and Young Child Nutrition (MIYCN) from both Christian and Muslim perspectives. The Ministry ensured that states implemented the transformation pathways based on their comparative advantages, fostering collaboration among various sectors.
In its commitment to institutionalize nutrition-sensitive planning, the Ministry oversaw the implementation of Nutrition Budget Tagging Systems in select MDAs as part of the World Bank’s ANRiN project. This initiative aimed to track and optimize budget allocations for nutrition-related interventions, ensuring resources were effectively utilized to enhance nutritional outcomes. Bagudu’s leadership emphasised data-driven decision-making and alignment with national development priorities, reflecting a comprehensive approach to governance.
Bagudu’s leadership at the Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning prioritised poverty reduction, nutrition programmes, and sustainable economic growth. By coordinating critical initiatives grounded in data-driven decision-making, the Ministry aimed to address multidimensional poverty, enhance job creation, and improve nutrition outcomes. Bagudu’s holistic approach focused on the well-being of Nigeria’s most vulnerable citizens, laying the foundation for sustainable development and economic progress.
Leveraging geospatial technology and strategic policy coordination
Bagudu has also spearheaded innovative approaches to enhance public resource utilisation and promote inclusive development in Nigeria. Central to his strategy has been the integration of geospatial evidence and analysis into the design and implementation of public programmes and projects nationwide. This initiative aims to leverage geospatial technology to enable data-driven decision-making, enhance intervention targeting, and monitor development projects with greater precision, fostering more effective resource allocation and impact assessment.
Under Bagudu’s leadership, the Ministry has conducted extensive sensitisation campaigns to promote the adoption of geospatial evidence at both subnational and national levels. By incorporating geospatial analysis into public sector operations, the government can identify priority areas, optimise resource allocation, and improve the efficiency of development initiatives.
Notable outcomes include the successful concessioning of the cassava bio-ethanol value chain across Nigeria’s six geographical zones, a project that has already generated over 8,000 direct and indirect jobs, boosted cassava production, and addressed food insecurity while promoting entrepreneurship.
Bagudu’s broader economic strategy also encompasses initiatives to diversify Nigeria’s agricultural sector, reduce import dependence, and enhance food security. The Ministry’s efforts to develop the cassava bio-ethanol value chain align with these objectives, aiming to create a sustainable industry that supports local farmers, stimulates rural economies, and contributes to the country’s energy needs. The success of pilot projects has validated the viability of this approach, paving the way for scaling up the initiative nationwide and further strengthening Nigeria’s agricultural resilience and economic sustainability.
Moreover, Bagudu’s focus on transparent economic data release, safeguarding the independence of the National Bureau of Statistics, and initiating the rebasing of Nigeria’s GDP to reflect emerging economic sectors underscores his commitment to informed policymaking and credible statistical reporting. By addressing challenges such as crude oil theft through comprehensive action plans and enhancing coordination with development partners and NGOs, the Ministry has bolstered development assistance and resource mobilisation for key initiatives.
Bagudu’s strategic policy coordination, exemplified by the development of the National Transport Policy, underscores his dedication to fostering sustainable development and economic growth in Nigeria through innovative, collaborative, and data-driven approaches.
Challenges faced by Bagudu in one year
The Ministry has faced the perennial issue of insufficient financial resources, posing constraints on realising desired outcomes amidst the need for substantial investments in critical sectors. This scarcity has necessitated strategic resource allocation to prioritise essential projects and programmes within budget constraints.
Besides, the Ministry’s pivotal role in revitalising the economy, reducing poverty, and promoting sustainable development has heightened demands on Bagudu to balance competing priorities effectively within financial limitations.
Leveraging innovative approaches like geospatial technology and fostering collaborations with development partners has enabled the Ministry to stretch available resources and advance key initiatives such as the cassava bio-ethanol project and the NG-CARES programme. Despite these efforts, the challenge of limited funding persists as an ongoing obstacle requiring continued creativity and resourcefulness to address.
In addition to financial constraints, Bagudu has encountered challenges stemming from the evolving landscape of ministerial responsibilities, particularly the dissipation of the Ministry’s traditional coordinating and monitoring roles.
The establishment of the Coordinating Minister for the Economy and the Special Adviser on Policy Monitoring has led to a redistribution of economic coordination and monitoring functions, potentially diluting the Ministry’s influence and authority in these areas. This shift has introduced complexity to Bagudu’s work, necessitating adept navigation of inter-ministerial coordination dynamics and potential conflicts or overlaps in responsibilities.
Bagudu’s pragmatic approach to these challenges, informed by his experience in both legislative and executive branches, has focused on aligning the Ministry’s efforts with broader economic goals set by the new coordinating roles. By maintaining a cooperative relationship with the Coordinating Minister for the Economy and the Special Adviser on Policy Monitoring, Bagudu aims to ensure the Ministry remains a significant player in the government’s economic agenda. The complexities arising from limited financial resources and evolving ministerial responsibilities underscore the multifaceted nature of Bagudu’s tenure and the adaptive strategies required to navigate these challenges effectively.
Despite these positive strides, there are areas where Bagudu’s tenure has faced challenges. The extensive monitoring of over 500 federal projects, while ambitious, raises questions about the capacity to maintain such rigorous oversight across a wide array of initiatives. Ensuring that projects are completed on time, within budget, and to the expected quality standards is a demanding task that requires not only robust systems but also sufficient resources and manpower, which may not always be adequately available.
Additionally, the necessity to revise the NDP to align with the new administration’s “Renewed Hope Agenda” underscores the potential instability that can arise when long-term development plans are subject to frequent adjustments with changes in government. This could hinder the continuity and effectiveness of policies, potentially impacting the overall progress towards national development goals.
