EYES are on the Southeast geo-political zone as the country warms up for next year’s elections. Will the zone maintain its pattern of voting or change allegiance? Since 1999, the region has been one of the strongholds of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Will the political calculus remain the same or will it be altered in 2019?
The position of the Southeast stakeholders may be a signal to 2019. At a meeting in Enugu, the political headquarter of the region; Southeast governors fired salvos at the Buhari administration, saying that it has neglected the five states constituting the Igbo nation. There was nothing in the tone of the leaders that suggested an intention to negotiate with the APC-led Federal Government for more dividends for democracy. They appeared focused on an apparent unanimous desire to board the PDP vehicle to power.
The destination is not far. The puzzle is how to get there. The region has an ambition. It is eyeing the presidency. Therefore, the next presidential election may be the first critical step to its actualisation. Southeast faces two predictable hurdles. The first is that, if the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) wins the poll with the active support of the five Southeast states, its chance of producing President Buhari’s successor in 2023 is bright. If the PDP, which is also fielding a candidate from the North produces the president, then, the zone may have to wait till 2031 after he completes his two term tenure of eight years. To assuage its feeling, the vice presidency may be conceded to the region, but not without stiff competition by the Southwest and Southsouth.
The agitation for power shift is very loud in the Southeast. It will be louder in post-2019, especially if President Muhammadu Buhari wins a second term. The main justification is that the zone has not produced a president since 1999. But, curiously, the region does not appear to be courting the centre. Unlike before, Igbos are now somehow aloof to mainstream politics, particularly under the Buhari administration, unlike when its sons and daughters played prominent roles in the previous administrations midwifed by the PDP.
The region may have drawn the battle line last week. Accusing the president of marginalisation, Southeast stakeholders hinted that it would continue to look in the direction of another political party for salvation. Reminiscent of 2015 polls when the Igbos rejected Buhari and voted for former President Goodluck ‘Azikiwe Ebele’ Jonathan, the ethnic group is unwilling to allow the ruling APC to make an in-road to the zone. Thus, the leaders may have made a decision that has implications for the five states, at least, in the nearest future. It is evident that other regions, the competing political parties and candidates are carefully analysing the import of that regional position on next year’s elections.
Southeast is glued to the drawing board. But, is the zone miscalculating or gambling again by rejecting President Buhari and the APC? Or its leaders have strategically projected into the future and come to the realisation that the PDP will bounce back and take the zone to an Eldorado? What is responsible for that audacity of hope? Or are Southeast leaders locked in unfounded permutations and fantasies by putting all their eggs in one basket? Is there a way the ‘neglected’ zone can marry expectation with reality?
The region is politically bitter. Its leaders have maintained that the anger is not without reason. While the Northwest has seven states and Northcentral, Northeast, Southwest and Southsouth have six states, the Southeast only have five. The pains and scares of the civil war have not fizzled out completely. Obviously, there is no political compensation that can mitigate the monumental loss of human and material resources. These realities have often influenced the renewed and zealous clamour for political relevance within the defective federal structure, especially when the push for secession and disintegration has become failed weapons of negotiation and blackmail. Yet, to the Southeast, genuine reintegration is only underscored by the attainment of the presidency.
The elusive presidency translates into an illusion of hope and loss of a sense of belonging. But, Southeast actors also claim that they are denied other entitlements under the inexplicable and unjust federal arrangement. According to them, the zone is fretting under the burden of neglect caused by the lopsided distribution of political offices and social amenities by the Federal Government. Southeast governors are complaining that the Federal Government has allegedly maintained the pattern of short-changing the region in the implementation of capital projects in the 2017 project.
Of significance is the budget, which is linked with the 2017-2020 Economic Recovery and Growth Plan of the Buhari administration. But, in what it described as its ‘Monitoring Report on the Performance of the Federal Capital Budget, the Southeast Governors’ Forum pointed out the implementation has failed in the region.
The release of the report has coincided with preparations for general elections by the ruling and the main opposition parties. Apart from drawing attention to the dearth of infrastructural facilities, many observers believe that its release was meant to fuel political sentiment and create the impression that the Buhari administration cannot adequately protect the interest of the Southeast, now and in the future. Therefore, the zone, in their opinion, may not reckon with President Buhari and APC in the next presidential election. The message being passed across is that the region should sustain its voting pattern.
Expressing disgust at the failure of the infrastructure battle in the Southeast, the forum’s Director-General, Prof. Simon Otuanya, said: “The capital project implementation in 2017 did not fare well at all in Southeast states. The roads have remained impossible and so the Federal Government should please do better in 2018 and we hope that the Federal Government will make the improvement.”
Indisputably, Southeast leading lights, who were at the Enugu meeting, were adorned with partisan garments. Majority of them belong to the PDP. Three of the five governors from the region-Dr. Okezie Ikpeazu, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi and Dave Umahi- are PDP governors. The lone APC governor, Owelle Rochas Okorocha, who is battling with post-congress logjam and crisis of nominations in his party, was rattled by the regional verdict. The All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) governor, Willy Obiano, is torn between the APC and the PDP over the prospects of electoral solidarity. Majority of state and federal legislators from Southeast belong to the PDP. At the local government level, PDP is the dominant party in Ebonyi, Abia and Enugu. So far, no major actor with a huge followership has defected from the PDP to the APC in the Southeast, unlike the Southsouth where a big fish, Senator Godswill Akpabio, jumped ship.
Unlike the Southeast, the Southsouth is gradually renewing its ties with the centre. APC is enlarging its coast in the Niger Delta. In a bid to build on its victory in Edo State, the party is targeting Akwa Ibom. The implication is that Southsouth may have a higher stake in Buhari’s government before, during and after elections more than its neighbouring zone.
Instructively, during the 2015 presidential elections, Southeast was rooting for Dr. Jonathan. PDP defeated the APC in the zone with a wide margin. In Enugu State, PDP had 553,003 votes while APC scored 14, 157. In Ebonyi, the PDP candidate polled 232,653 votes; APC got 19,518 votes. In Anambra, PDP got 660,762 votes. APC got 17,926. In Abia, where PDP got 368,303 votes, APC had 13, 394 votes. President Buhari was able to neutralise the effects of the bloc endorsement by votes from the Northwest and five of six Southwest states-Lagos, Oyo, Ondo, Ogun and Osun.
In the past, Buhari was inundated with complaints by Southeast stakeholders about the marginalisation of the zone in the distribution of appointments. The Igbo umbrella organisation, Ohaneze Ndigbo, has criticised the president for indifference to the plight of the region. But, the approach of the pan-Igbo group is difference. It is not along the line of collaboration. The organisation has adopted the borrowed platform of restructuring to articulate its views on the contentious national question, urging the president to redesign or reconfigure the country. It is an option President Buhari is not eager to consider, judging by his body language.
Also, pro-Biafra agitators, led by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) leader, Nnamdi Kanu, have been on the prowl in the Southeast. Many observers have described their activities as a carry-over of the region’s hostility to President Buhari’s bid for the presidency. It is ironical that while Southeast is clamouring for power shift or rotational presidency, a section of the region is agitating for secession and balkanisation of Nigeria.
While the president’s explicit explanation that he could not reward the zone that rejected him at the poll with patronage did not go down well with the region, his subsequent explanation on the equitable distribution of ministerial slots based on quota system was convincing. The five Southeast states have representation in the Federal Executive Council (FEC).
Southeast has the right to either embrace the PDP or the APC. But, according to observers, the zone should also be prepared to pay the price of choice. In 2015, since there was no senator elected on the platform of the ruling party from the zone, the position of Senate President eluded the region. In 2019, history may still repeat itself. If APC is unable to penetrate the Southeast, that position may go to the Southsouth, if the party wins majority of seats in the Senate during 2019 polls. Among the aspirants for the number three position is Akpabio, former PDP Senate Minority Leader. A source said the Minister of Labour and Employment, Dr. Chris Ngige, who has unfolded a senatorial ambition, may compete for the slot, if he is elected on the platform of the APC.
But, is Southeast actually marginalised? According to the Federal Government, the allegation is unfounded. Information and Culture Minister, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, disputed the governors’ claim, saying that the president has taken pragmatic steps to provide and rehabilitate infrastructure in the Southeast. He said the president has maintained keen interest in the Southeast since 2015. “There is a verifiable record of provision of key infrastructure in the Southeast,” he added.
Also, the Minister of Power, Works and Housing, Babatunde Fashola (SAN), explained that many projects have been executed in the zone. “The government has executed many projects in the zone, including those abandoned by previous administrations. For instance, the Federal Government has released the proceeds of N100 billion Sukuk bond to 25 key economic road projects across the country, including those in the Southeast. These projects are located in the nation’s six geo-political zones, including the Southeast that has four major road schemes. Specifically, each of the geo-political zones of the country has received the sum of N16.67 billion for road projects,” he added.
The on-going projects in the Southeast include: rehabilitation and construction of Enugu-Port-Harcourt Dual Carriageway Section 11: Umuahia Tower, Aba Township Rail/Road Bridge Crossing, Abia State; rehabilitation and reconstruction of Enugu-Port Harcourt Dual Carriageway Section 1: Lokpanta Umuahia Tower, Abia State; rehabilitation of Outstanding Section of Onitsha-Enugu Expressway: Amansea-Enugu State Border; and rehabilitation of Enugu-Port-Harcourt Road Section 111: Enugu-Lokpanta, Enugu State. According to ministry officials, the projects are at the level of asphaltic concrete surface.
But, will these interventions convince the zone? Will it alter the view of anti-Buhari elements? What difference can the projects make? Whether Southeast will change its position is in the realm of conjecture, although APC chieftains from the zone are working assiduously to alter the trend. The limitation is that, despite the power of federal incumbency, Buhari’s foot soldiers in the region may not be able to match the aggression, resilience, structure, networks and popularity of PDP gladiators.
For the PDP, the zone is a no-go area for the APC. PDP leaders in the region are always brainstorming. Their mobilisation has often dwarfed the zonal APC leadership. Although it was speculated that Enugu State Governor, Ugwuanyi and his Ebonyi counterpart, Umahi, would defect to the APC, the duo have reiterated their loyalty and commitment to the PDP. The defection of few lawmakers from the PDP to the APC in the zone has not produced any meaningful impact.
Apart from Obiano and Okorocha, the three PDP governors have second term ambition. They are not leaving anything to chance. They have no serious rivals at the primaries. Therefore, they have less acrimony to contend with after governorship primaries. In fact, ahead of next year’s polls, they have kicked off their rallies and campaigns, thereby leaving behind the APC, which is yet to pick governorship candidates for the states.
Those rooting for the APC in the Southeast appear to lack the power to influence or control situations in the region, despite their pedigree as men of honour and integrity. Except Ngige and the Minister of Science and Technology, Dr. Ogbonnaya Onu, other ministers from the region can hardly play the role of effective party arrowheads in their respective chapters. Ethnicity is deep in Igboland and APC has never been projected to them as the party of Igboland, unlike the PDP and APGA.
In Ebonyi, elder statesman Onu has a reputation for political consistency and principle. He is held in high esteem as one of the founding fathers of the APC. But, he has not been able to make much difference during elections. However, the old glory is intact.
In Anambra, Ngige is perceived as a leader. But, he and other chieftains, including Mrs. Uche Ekwunife, Andy Uba and Tony Nwoye, were unable to swing the pendulum of victory to APC’s direction during the governorship and senatorial by-lections. In fact, all of them are defectors from the PDP.
In Enugu, the PDP is not sleeping on guard. It is guarding its territory jealously. The Director-General of Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria (FRCN), Okey Okechukwu, is an active supporter of the president. But, he seems to lack the political clout required for mobilisation for power shift. Also, there is no unity in the Enugu APC chapter.
In Imo, there is turmoil in the APC. Much energy is dissipated on the crisis arising from rancorous ward, local government and state congresses. The APC governor is not on the same page with many gladiators in the party. The bone of contention is succession. Okorocha is bowing out of office next year. He has a succession plan. But, many chieftains are against his plan to anoint his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as the governorship candidate. Some of them are threatening to even leave the party in protest.
In Abia State, APC is very weak. There is no strong leader to galvanise the chapter and make it an enviable and election-wining platform. Many of its leaders are paper-weight politicians.
There are two questions begging for answers: what future for APC in the Southeast? What future for Southeast in a ‘united’ Nigeria?