Between his first and second coming, Muhammadu Buhari’s conversion from the martial man of steel to a self-confessed democrat of reason is quite dramatic.
It is the political equivalence of the rabid, anti-Christ Saul turning the zestful, pro-gospel Paul, on the way to Damascus. But the democratic General’s life-changing journey to Damascus took no less than 13 rigorous years.
Within that short period, he ran for the Nigerian presidency four times, got marooned at the courts thrice, while his rivals savoured, with reckless abandon, the fruits of his quest.
Why, his party even once abandoned him for opportunistic appointments from the rival party, which purported victory he was challenging, in a marathon court process!
Gen. Buhari told his own tale, when a delegation from Taraba State paid him a courtesy call in Abuja.
By the president-elect’s own account, his democratic evolution took a whole of 24 years — from 1991 when the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) collapsed; to 2015, his year of presidential triumph, after three failures.
Though the president-elect spoke strictly in the context of the sanctity of the vote, as the basis of democracy, it is instructive that his democratic epiphany came with the USSR collapse.
Lack of democracy may well be one of the complex reasons the USSR collapsed. But beyond ideological colouration and ethnic domination, the USSR (1922-1991) fell because it was a faulty federation — a grave similarity it shares with Nigeria, which even after the proliferation of “states”, remains an ultra-centralised entity.
Now, no two situations are exactly alike. Whereas USSR’s centralised planning delivered rapid industrialisation, Nigeria’s version has delivered the exact opposite — de-industrialisation: for varied reasons, of course.
Still, not even USSR’s material prosperity could save it from its dire structural deficiency. Again, this plague it shares with Nigeria, though with double jeopardy. Though USSR collapsed even if it was one of the globe’s accomplished scientific and technological leaders, Nigeria would take its survival chances, even as a global scientific and technological laggard!
One final comparison, on the ethnic plane. The USSR was a federal union of “republics” — Ukraine, Byelorussia, etc, even if every inch of that vast territory was ruled by the local communists. But the ruling temper was decidedly Russian, the clear majority in the union.
Nigeria too stumbled into independence as a Federal Republic of three, and later, four regions. That federal essence has since been whittled down with a progressive fissuring into states, the latest number of which is 36 — with the elite still calling for more!
But from the very beginning, and till now, even with the 12 June 1993 presidential election annulment fiasco, the ruling temper is perceived to be northern.
Indeed, that anti-North sentiment, triggered by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua’s Katsina Cabal that tried to stonewall the then Vice President Goodluck Jonathan from the Presidency, helped to propel Dr. Jonathan to the acme of Nigerian power.
But no sooner did President Jonathan attain that height than he himself attempt a Niger Delta hegemony, in which the South East sentimentally tagged along. Again, that triggered a rare North-South West entente, which drove the All Progressives Congress (APC) though, to be fair, the South East political elite enjoyed a right of first refusal, as it were, in that political alliance.
But the South West-North entente, without a formal political restructuring, only alienated the Afenifere segment of the Yoruba dominant political temper. That put them at cross-purpose with Bola Tinubu, the basic driver of the political accommodation.
Indeed, Sir Olaniwun Ajayi, in his latest book, Nigeria: Political Power Imbalance, and earlier ones like Nigeria: Africa’s Failed Asset? had railed at a certain northern power hegemony treacherously packaged — to eventually undermine Nigeria — by the exiting British colonialists.
Though not a few have hinted at Sir Olaniwun’s own perceived Yoruba irredentism, his thoughts continue to gather suction, particularly with the ideologues of restructuring as the very minimum basis for Nigeria’s survival as a prosperous nation-state.
But why all this hard analysis? Simple. The whoop of election victory is gone. So, is the terrible moan of defeat. Now, comes the brass tack.
Gen. Buhari would appear the best deal, by miles, for now. For one, he is no reluctant leader. He chased power the hard way; and is tempered by the gall that getting power — democratic power — is very difficult. So, he is likelier to exercise it responsibly.
For another, he is a self-confessed new democrat. Being a neophyte in that peculiar temper, all glory to democratic redemption, he is likely to dazzle the polity with his new essence, much more than “seasoned democrats”, who take their essence so much for granted that all they hit the polity with are anti-democratic acts!
Besides, contrasted to two of his three immediate predecessors, he speaks of further reassurance. An unprepared Jonathan got power by accident. He dissipated it without much ado. Olusegun Obasanjo was a power megalomaniac, too convinced of his own inherent goodness to fully grasp his place in history. Muhammadu Buhari, thankfully, appears to differ from the two.
Still, all these would count for little, if the president-elect does not get right the structural angle of the immense problems.
Even right now, delegations have been pouring into his door stead; and their pleas are near-uniform: O, presidential emperor and magic worker, only you can solve our problems, as they tender their shopping lists!
But structurally, that should not be so. If you operate Federal Nigeria as it should be, the president and his federal government should not be mythical magicians. Indeed, the federating regions will solve most of the problems, leaving pretty little for Abuja to worry about.
Ripples believes Buhari would be fair to all. But again, that would be resorting to the default-setting of the president as some benevolent emperor. He is nothing of the sort. In any case, he should not be.
What Nigeria needs is a fair and equitable federal system, under which every part of the country works hard and be fair to itself — instead of looking up to some central dole.
Besides, that Nigeria has fallen on bad times pushes the imperative for a paradigm shift. Right now, the federal government is the sole giver. But what the Buhari government must do is open up the revenue-driving base, taking advantage of the federal doctrine, and amending extant laws for every part of the country to drive its own resources.
To do that, Buhari must develop a federalist mindset. That would be a pleasant combo for the latest democrat on the block.
That is why the APC South West caucus must not be coy, pushing restructuring as the ultimate correction to Nigeria’s deficient and defective federalism. If this coalition fails, they would be the first to be conked.
Besides, it would be a travesty to gain democracy and federal power; yet lose sight of restructuring, Federal Nigeria’s potent tool to deliver development.
‘Buhari must develop a federalist mindset. That would be a pleasant combo for the latest democrat on the bloc’
