Four weeks to the presidential election, President Goodluck Jonathan and the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate Gen. Muhammadu Buhari are scrambling for critical votes and world attention. There is a protracted battle for media mileage. There is a clash of propaganda. The competition is laced with bile and antagonism. But, on March 28, the wheat will be separated from the chaff.
In the last minute deployment of strategies to get more support, the two leading candidates engaged the attention of prospective voters this week. Gen. Buhari stormed the Chatham House, London, United Kingdom, to engage the world as an opposition candidate canvassing the alternative solution to unresolved puzzles that have starred the nation in the face for 16 years. The attention of the world focused on the former military leader, who has remained popular, almost 30 years after his exit from power.
As Buhari mounted the rostrum in the United Kingdom, President Jonathan stormed Mubi and Baga in army uniform for on -the -spot assessment of the anti-terror war, after years of docility in the war against insurgency in the Northeast. His intention was to boost the morale of the soldiers and gain political capital as the election draws near. The Commander-In-Chief wanted to portray to Nigerians that he is winning the war against insurgency in two weeks, probably with an intention to ask for more weeks to conclude the war.
The two events underscored the partisan nature of the period. But, according to observers, while Nigerians and indeed, the world may take Buhari seriously, the President needs to do more to regain public confidence.
Buhari’s visit to London was significant. There are two challenges confronting Nigeria, the most populous African country. These are the challenges of democratisation and nation-building. At Chatham House, the APC standard bearer dissected the two challenges of development. His verdict was that there is hope, if the curtains are drawn on the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that has held sway for 16 years in this Fourth Republic.
The PDP has inadvertently contributed to Buhari’s growing popularity. The propaganda against him has always collapsed like a pack of cards. When the whereabouts of his original certificate was denied by the Army authorities, retired Generals strongly decried the conspiracy. Nigerians said that they were not interested in the certificate, adding that his ordinary NEPA bill will do.
Spin doctors have branded him as an incurable dictator. Millions have been spent on advertisements directing attention to his past as a no-nonsense military officer and ruler. A searchlight has been beamed on his health, with PDP chieftains peddling the rumour that he is not fit for the highest responsibility because of its rigour. In fact, the governor of Ekiti State, Mr. Ayodele Fayose, has predicted that Buhari will die in office.
Buhari has also been decried as a spent force. Some PDP leaders have said that he is out of touch with the reality of modern governance.
Before an audience of enlightened citizens of the world in London, Buhari had time to tackle these issues. Exuding charisma and carriage, his sense of humour was also applauded. He refrained from attacking personality. Buhari focused on issues and ideas.
The General, who described himself as a converted democrat, alluded to an unfinished task of making Nigeria great through democratic change guaranteed by the sanctity of the ballot box. By throwing his hat into the ring at 72, the retired soldier is venturing into an area where successive leaders have not lived up to expectation since 1999. But, as he put it, his strength lies in the beauty of his dreams and passion to work for a new Nigeria that will regain its lost stature and pride in the comity of nations.
The former Head of State did not play to the gallery. He did not pose as a scholar. But, he held the audience captive as a statesman on a rescue mission in a country that has been misruled. Buhari did not promise what he will not deliver. He spoke as a gallant officer, nationalist, patriot and man of valour, honour and integrity. The people cheered his frankness and sincerity. He justified his billing as an experienced administrator. His responses to questions were lucid, logical and non-elusive. The old soldier was not economical with truth. Even, he admitted his past mistakes as a tough military ruler. He acknowledged his description by the western media as a former dictator. But, he told the audience, without regressing into defense mechanism, that old things have passed away. He accepted responsibility for the past and reiterated his readiness to fire a democratic challenge. Yet, he is progressively adamant on one thing. In the national interest, Buhari said that indiscipline will not be tolerated, if he assumes the reins. He sounded a note of warning, saying that there will be no room for theft and graft in high places.
Buhari is endowed with an excellent gait. He appeared like a father figure on the podium. The audience believed every word he uttered because they were conversant with his antecedent as an officer and gentleman, a civil war hero, an army commander who objected to the annexation of national territory, a former governor, minister and Head of State. The lecture put a lie to insinuations that he went for medical tourism abroad.
It is a defining moment for his beleaguered country. As a contender for federal power in a country of illusions, the General is also on the weighing scale. He believes that the election has serious import for the world. But, more importantly, his party believes that the exercise should take the fledgling federation into a new horizon of popular rule where citizens would savour unpolluted dividends of democracy.
All eyes are on Nigeria. The envisaged titanic contest is gathering momentum. Thus, Buhari, in his speech titled: ‘Prospects for democratic consolidation in Africa: Nigeria’s transition’, reflected on the ballot box challenge. He gave some conditions for a successful transition. The postponement of the presidential elections has provoked outrage. Those who postponed it may attempt to take Nigerians for a ride by shifting it again. Almost three weeks ago, Buhari had to appeal to his supporters for calm. His appeal doused the brewing tension. But, at the lecture, he insisted that the postponed elections should now hold on the rescheduled dates. Besides, he demanded on behalf of all lovers of democracy that the exercise should be free and fair so that their outcomes can be respected by all parties.
This has implications. If the poll does not pass the tests of integrity and credibility, danger looms. To avert that, stakeholders must work cooperatively to deliver non-controversial polls that will be adjudged credible by domestic and foreign observers. As Buhari warned that any form of extension, under whatever guise, is unconstitutional and will not be tolerated, those inside the hall and viewers across the globe nodded affirmatively.
If Nigeria succeeds in organising a peaceful poll, or if power shifts to the opposition, according to popular expectations, the country will just be trailing behind smaller countries-Ghana, Mali, Senegal, and Mauritius-that have accomplished the feat with minimal stress. The next step will, in Buhari’s view, be how to consolidate democracy. Democratisation, he admits, is a journey. The starting point may be the election, but of more importance is the quality of the elections and fruits of elections. If the quality of the election is not compromised, the state will advance with less controversy to the next stage, which is the harvest of adeosundemocratic dividends. Instructively, Buhari pointed out that these dividends are still beyond the reach of Nigerians who groan under poverty, insecurity and inequality.
In his view, democracy goes beyond allowing people to freely choose their leaders. It goes beyond the promise and assurance of choice and freedom. Democracy, he said, must foster security of life and property. It must allow room for transparency and accountability. It must permit the rule of law, good governance and shared prosperity.
Buhari noted that Nigeria has enjoyed stability in the last 16 years. But, of what import is that stability under a system that cannot put food on the table of Nigerians? What is stability, if the patched system cannot provide jobs for youths? What is the import of a stable order that cannot guarantee stable power supply? Answers to these puzzles find expression in the search for the alternative route in a country where the government, according to observers, has failed. Buhari said the alternative to the PDP, which has presided over the lean and boring period, is the All Progressives Congress (APC). He conceded that the elections will hold in an atmosphere of competition. If the election does not fail, he also believes that the prospects of democratic consolidation will be further brightened in Africa.
The contest is a huge democratic task. Buhari said the exercise will hold under the shadow of huge security and social and economic uncertainties. To him, it is worrisome that this is the first time that insecurity will drive Nigeria to an edge since the days of the civil war. He expressed sadness over the insurgency by the dreadful Boko Haram sect, which has killed more than 13,000 Nigerians and displaced millions internally and externally. He blamed the Federal Government for ineptitude and inaction. He said what has been consistently lacking is the required leadership.
Buhari pointed out that, when the challenge overwhelmed the military through no fault of the patriotic and nationalist institution, the Nigerian military that has won laurels in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Liberia and Darfur during peace-keeping missions failed at home. He said the government should take credit for the turn of events because it failed to provide the required incentives. Ironically, as the APC candidate put it, Nigeria has been dependent on its neighbours for survival.
If elected, Buhari said that he will halt the trend. He said there will be no annexed territory and the world will not have worry about Nigeria. How will he do it? His answer: “We will pay special attention to the welfare of our soldiers in and out of service. We will give them adequate and modern arms and ammunitions to work with. We will improve intelligence gathering and border controls to choke Boko Haram’s financial and equipment channels. We will be tough on terrorism.”
But, can toughness halt terrorism? Buhari said that his government will also pay adequate attention to the human side of the fight against terror. Through a comprehensive economic development plan, there will be the promotion of infrastructural development, job creation, and the development of agriculture and industry.
If Buhari wins the poll, he will inherit a comatose economy. Indeed, Nigeria’s economy is on its knee. The fall in the price of oil has aggravated the perilous times. The former military leader said that, after rebasing the economy, it overtook South-Africa as the largest economy. In his view, this is economic growth on paper. He doubted if it can translate to human development or shared prosperity.
The reasons are not far-fetched. Buhari said mismanagement, profligacy and corruption are the economy’s albatross.
Neither can the dual economies of get rich quick for the few and misery for the poor who are many stand. Thirty three percent of Nigerians still live below poverty line. This is almost 60 million, almost the population of the United Kingdom. This is unacceptable, said the General, who added that Nigerians must act with speed to halt the trend because delay could be dangerous. If this is treated with levity, he warned that the consequence of youth unemployment will widen the inequality. The explosion will be calamitous. Thus, in the face of dwindling resources, Buhari said the starting point is the stoppage of corruption and other associated ills, which he alleged, the Federal Government has succeeded in promoting.
Many Nigerians accept that corruption has nearly killed the country. Buhari promised to lead by personal example by tackling the menace. The holes in the budgetary process will be plugged. Besides, he said the public will vet the books of the critical revenue-generating entities-the Nigeria national Petroleum Corporation and the Customs, which, many believe, must be more accountable. He said that when he begins to fight the anti-graft war, his detractors should not misconstrue it as vendetta or an attempt to settle old scores.
Monies are being recovered from few corrupt officials. How they are being used or what they are used for is unknown. But, Buhari said the recovered loot will be used to fund the APC’s social investment programmes in education, health , other social infrastructure, youth employment and pensions for the elderly. Besides, he said the economy must be repositioned to create equity and justice. Thus, wealth redistribution is his priority. Buhari promised to run a functional economy driven by a worldview that sees growth, not an end by itself, but as a tool to create a society that works for all, rich and poor alive.
Many Nigerians have praised Buhari for his candour. They said he made a patriotic presentation. On poll day, he is likely to harvest a great deal of emotional investment in his capacity to reposition the polity. But, PDP believes otherwise. The Jonathan Campaign Organisation repudiated the platform, unmindful of the fact that Buhari’s appearance at Chatham House trailed that of the National Security Adviser, Col. Sambo Dasuki, who was sent there by the Federal Government to push for election postponement.
While Buhari’s popularity soared in London, with paid protesters against him confessing that they were misled and that they did not know why they were protesting , observers believe that President Jonathan’s sudden visit to Baga has not achieved the intended motive. Stakeholders were cautious to cheer the visit because of many unanswered questions . Buhari had alluded to the part of the Nigeria’s territory that has been ‘annexed’ by insurgents, saying that it has a size of Belgium. Why should the President wait for so long to take a decisive action? Can those who have lost their lives be brought back to life? How are those internally displaced people faring? Where are the over 200 girls kidnapped at their secondary schools in Chibok, Borno state ? Borno elders early this week urged the government to take them and journalists to visit the liberated areas to see things for themselves and report back to Nigerians, the appeal has been has fallen on deaf ears. To many Nigerians, that approach is more credible and believable. What with the claim by some that the soldiers the President met in both Mubi and Baga were moved there from other military formations .
The President , in an interview with a national paper last Sunday, said that he underrated the Boko Haram sect. Thus, he was lethargic. This admission is instructive, it borders on criminal negligence. Through negligence, thousands of lives were lost and thousands maimed. At what stage did he perceive the sect as a threat to security? Irked by the self-denial, Nobel Laureate Prof. Wole Soyinka said last year that docility is not a prime art of governance. He urged the President to stop living in denial and seek the assistance of the international community. It is on record too that Buhari called for a coalition of international forces in the war against the insurgents.
The media mileage being sought by the President and Commander-In-Chief became a tall order when reporters probed the motivation for the emergency visit. The feat achieved by soldiers is a collective effort of the coalition of forces from neigbouring countries. CNN in a special documentary, reported that Gamboru Ngala in Borno state was freed by Chadian soldiers protecting their country against the marauders. Nigeria’s military high command now seeks to claim credit for successes being recorded while the President wants to be applauded . Nigerians are wiser and not,carried away. If they had acted promptly, if they had listened to wise counsel, the Northeast would not be the killing field that it is today.
Besides insecurity, the President also need to address other issues . Can he fix the power sector in four weeks? Can he now provide jobs for youths roaming the streets? Can he revive the economy before the presidential contest? Can the President curb corruption between now and March 28? Can he regain public confidence?
