The stage is set and Nigerians are anxious to go to the pollS. They have a date to keep with destiny. But agitations for the shift of the February 14 and 28 elections are mounting by the day, not minding the dire consequences – as it was in 1993 in the days of the infamous Association for Better Nigeria (ABN), writes Group Political Editor, Emmanuel Oladesu.
History is repeating itself in Nigeria. The hawks are out again. Reminiscent of the inglorious days of the military rule, unpatriotic elements are intensifying their push for the postponement of the February 14 and 28 general elections, sending clear signals that the democratic journey is about to be aborted. For almost 16 years, Nigeria has witnessed political stability through orderly successions. But the most populous African nation is in the eye of the world as its desperate leaders appear set to drag it into a needless pandemonium, which reason can still avert.
Already, the polity is suffering from pre-election terrorism. Nigerians are not assailed by collective amnesia. The notorious Association for Better Nigeria (ABN) has reincarnated in the activities of unscrupulous advocates of poll shift. While the administration of military President Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida gave a tacit support to the ABN, led by Senator Arthur Nzeribe and Mr. Abimbola Davies, it is believed that those calling for the postponement enjoy the blessing of the Presidency and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). To observers, the agitation is satanic and condemnable.
In the Third Republic, the activities of the ABN generated uproar. Nzeribe and Davies claimed that they had collated signatures of Nigerians, who have demanded for the shift of the presidential poll. The political class dismissed their threats with a wave of the hand to their peril. Men of goodwill berated those behind the hatchet job, warning that they were tools in the hands of the military in their plot for regime extension. But, ABN was undaunted. Voters trooped out in large numbers to cast their ballot across the country. The election was globally adjudged the freest, fairest and the peaceful. But, little did Nigerians now that they had voted in vain. ABN ultimately became the ‘June 12’ albatross in 1993. The military confederates succeeded in their plot to deny Nigeria an elected government. Up came an inexplicable Interim National Government (ING), chaired by Chief Ernest Shonekan. Nigeria was the big loser. It became an outcast in the comity of nations.
Today, poll shift campaigners are singing familiar tunes. Will those calling for the cancellation of the election time-table succeed in truncating the electoral process, barely 15 and half years after the restoration of civil rule? Are past lessons not instructive? When will Nigeria learn?
Election fever
The main issue is the presidential election scheduled for February 14. Before the date was set, two critical issues were considered. The date was set by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in utter sensitivity to the requirement of the law that polls should be conducted ninety days to the swearing in. Also, it is expected that the period between the contest and inauguration of a new government should be sufficient for the resolution of electoral conflicts in the court. The onus is on the electoral umpire to either reaffirm the date of bow to pressures to announce an orchestrated adjustment to the electoral time-table. Although INEC Chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega, has reiterated the readiness of his commission to conduct credible elections, it is believed that the ruling PDP and forces loyal to President Goodluck Jonathan are kicking against it. The hypocritical commitment to the electoral process is the greatest act of perfidy under the administration. This monumental assault on popular rule has implications for political stability and national survival, more than the heinous crimes of corruption and mismanagement of the economy.
The poll postponement, if it ever comes to reality, is definitely an ill-wind that will not blow the polity any good. But, the proponents are not relenting in their avowed commitment to the wild project. Since the propaganda and other tricks against Gen. Muhammadu Buhari – the school certificate, alleged ill health, old age and past human rights’ records as military leader – have all collapsed like quicksand, the only option left on the card is to postpone the evil’s day. To implement the hidden agenda, pro-Jonathan forces have designed some strategies to scuttle the polls.
Desperate strategies
The first strategy was the media campaign. Pseudo-experts and cash-and-carry analysts were commissioned to go on air. They invaded television, radio and newspaper houses with their strange mission, but without success. Later, protests against election dates were orchestrated in Abuja and Lagos by paid agents, urging INEC to have a re-think about the dates. Then, the campaigners invaded the Southwest and found a willing ally in a faction of the pan-Yoruba socio-political group – Afenifere. Although the association is now a ghost of its self, the chieftains, posing as legitimate leaders of the race, endorsed the President and backed postponement. Immediately, the organisation was polarised. Some chapters dissociated themselves, saying that they could not go against the wishes of the people. The endorsement was futile.
Four days ago, a conference organised to consider the effects of the National Conference on the elections became an avenue for campaigns for election postponement. Instructively, one of the delegates, Pastor Tunde Bakare, had previously called for the postponement to pave the way for an interim government. Criticisms trailed the proposal. It suffered a colossal defeat in the court of public opinion.
Testing the waters
Capitalising on the public outcry that greeted the shoddy distribution of the Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs), the National Security Adviser (NSA), Col. Sambo Dasuki, joined the election shift orchestra. In far away Chatham House, London, United Kingdom (UK), the NSA said the coast was not clear for the elections. But, the commission replied immediately, saying that the cards were available for collection. Dasuki’s comment on the sensitive issue, some observers have argued, was not based on any validated inferences. In fact, after his comment, fears were expressed in some quarters that an atmosphere not conducive for elections may be instigated to achieve the nefarious motive. Warning against embarking on a journey that would herald national doom, a civil right group, the Democracy Vanguard, said: “The social and security costs of such action may be too grave to bear.”
When it was obvious that INEC has refused to bow to pressures, based on the controversy generated by the flawed PVCs’ distribution, the campaigners returned to the drawing board. The poll-shift crusaders resorted to litigation. The plot, according to the All Progressives Congress (APC) is to force a constitutional crisis that will make election impossible, thereby making an interim administration a compelling option.
Echoes of ABN days
This design is not new. In the past, a High Court Judge, Justice Bassey Ekpeme, was instigated to grant a controversial midnight injunction against the conduct of the June 12, 1993 presidential election. The ABN claimed that it had the mandate of some Nigerians to halt the contest. Fake signatures were collated, tendered and accepted as exhibits. In justifying the criminal annulment of the historic election won by the candidate of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), the late Chief Moshood Abiola, President Babangida, said that the conduct of the election negated a court order.
The military’s script is being exhumed once again. ‘Pliant judges,’ who will give outrageous and unpopular judgment at the court that is capable of destabilising the polity, may be procured. Then, the country will be on fire. Amid the violence across the country, the campaigners will leverage on the hullaballoo as an excuse to cancel the timetable and form an interim government. Already, six cases have been filed by the campaign agents. In one of them, which was instituted by Max Uzoaka against Gen. Buhari, Justice Adeniyi Ademola of the Federal High Court, Abuja has given an order for a substituted service.
Today, the National Council of State will meet in Abuja. Sources said that, in continuation of the scheming, the campaigners may resort to lobbying some members of the council to support their clamour for postponement. If the consensus of opinion at the meeting is against the agenda, the government is not under any obligation to consider its resolution of a mere advisory body.
To forestall international opprobrium, foreign journalists, who are authentic foreign observers in their own right, are being denied visas to come to Nigeria. Many critics see the denial as a systematic move aimed at preventing the international community from beaming a searchlight on the progression or otherwise of the electoral process.
The irony is not lost on the Commander-in-Chief, who rode to power more than five years ago, first to complete the term of former President, the Alhaji Umaru Yar’Adua and on the back of a mandate conferred at general elections in 2011. A great feature of democracy is free, fair and credible periodic elections, which affords stakeholders opportunities to savour the rare festival of choice, renewal of mandate, change and rejection of the leadership. To many stakeholders, the escape route and avoidance behaviours are devoid of logic. In the last 16 years, controversy has never trailed the election time-table. It is the first time INEC will release a time-table and the ruling party will be livid. It is the first time those basking in the euphoria of incumbency will object to poll date without justification.
Dark cloud
The signs are ominous. The cloud of uncertainty hovering over February 14 may not fizzle out, until the President speaks out to reassure the beleaguered country. But, a source said that, if the anxious nation expects any further assurance about the confirmation of the election date, the expectation may be in vain. The reason, according to sources, is that the President’s think-tank is not oblivious of the fact that perilous days are around the corner. The handwriting is bold on the wall. Morning shows the day. When PDP chieftains shouted the party slogan on campaign ground and the large crowd responded with: Sai Baba, Sai Buhari, discerning minds knew that the election has been won and lost.
The presidential campaign has been a popularity test for the President. Gripped by poll fever, PDP chieftains are seized by apprehension and anxiety on the podium. This may have put a lie to the collation of signatures of people begging the President to re-contest, as claimed by the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN). Many Nigerians yell when PDP leaders carry generators and fuel to campaigns to mitigate power failure. The presidential delivery at campaign locations has also not been inspiring. Quotable quotes are absent. Instead of highlighting his plans for the nation, the President and his strategists are busy abusing the opposition candidate. Indisputably, the incumbent is not ready for re-assessment. Indeed, there is a relationship between the fear of election and low popularity rating based on score card, which analysts cannot ignore.
A note of warning to judges
If the court succumbs to the manipulations, Nigeria will be back to square one. While inaugurating the election tribunals in Abuja two days ago, the Chief Justice of the Federation, Mahmud Mohammed, talked tough. He cautioned against vulnerability and urged jurists to shun compromise and resist the temptation to truncate democracy. He said judicial officers should not allow political parties and politicians to compromise their integrity and future.
“We must never again be used as tools to truncate our nation’s democracy. Any judge found wanting would only have himself or herself to blame as the National Judicial Council (NJC) will definitely not spare the rod in ensuring that the honour, respect and independence of the judiciary is protected,” Mohammed said at the inauguration of some 242 judges to hear post-election litigations that may arise from the now-threatened elections.
Many have hailed the chief justice for his admonition and warning in the public. But, they also expect him to back it up with solid commitment, even in privacy.
Another doctrine of necessity likely
But, what if the judiciary fails the nation? Analysts are building some scenarios. The comrade-at -arms and veteran coup plotters in the National Assembly will swing into action. Reminiscent of how they assisted Babangida to scuttle ‘June 12’ and foist an interim contraption on the country, the National Assembly, which would have become more vulnerable, may be mobilised to stage a coup against Nigerians by invoking the doctrine of necessity.
Again, paid agents would be arranged to justify the doctrine. They will decorate falsehood and prevarication in the garment of truth. They will impress it on Nigerians that it has worked in recent times when Nigeria slipped into a succession crisis. They will even rationalise that the novel idea was suggested by key members of the civil society groups to bail Nigeria out of a logjam. They will say, although the option is unfortunate, it is understandable.
The election can also be re-designed to fail through a curious subversion of the process, contrary to Jega’s expectation. Unpatriotic INEC officials may be induced to fall back on the Anambra formula of deliberately frustrating the voting process, thereby jostling Jega out of his delusion that there is no enemy within. The political scientist and former Vice Chancellor of Bayero University, has demonstrated courage and independence. He has warded off pressures to change the date. But, can he stand firm till the end?
This is a period of trial for Jega. Under the military rule, his distant predecessor, Prof. Humphery Nwosu, was intimidated. When it failed, he was assaulted by senior military officers for insisting that the poll should go on as scheduled.
If the election is postponed, there may be no end to postponement. Already, the campaigners are proposing June as the new date for the election. Again, they have two objectives in mind. According to analysts, Jega would have been eased out before the new date as his tenure expires on June 13. Also, if election does not hold before May 29, an interim government will be inevitable. But, the blood of Nigerians will not flow in the veins of the contraption. The interim government will face legitimacy and credibility crises.
Grave consequences
What are the implications of these scenarios for the country? The gains of democracy will be wiped off. A bad example will be laid for Africa. The postponement may become a trigger for violence as it lacks justification. The country is already enveloped in tension because people have fixed their gaze at February 14. This may compound the security situation. Also, Nigeria will receive knocks from abroad. It may once again regress into its previous status as a pariah state. Investors will desert Nigeria out of the feeling that the atmosphere is not conducive for investment. Nigerians across the globe will carry the burden and suffer the indignity of being disowned by the world.
The judgment of history will be harsh for those responsible for the reversal of the gains of civil rule.
