The 2011 presidential election in the South-South region was literally a stroll in the park for President Goodluck Jonathan, but recent events in the run-up to next month’s presidential poll suggests that unexpected surprises should not be ruled out this time around, reports Assistant Editor, Remi Adelowo
The 40, 000-capacity Adokiye Amiesimaka International Stadium in Port- Harcourt, the Rivers State capital, was agog on Tuesday during the flag- off of the presidential campaign of the All Progressives Congress (APC).
Man of the moment, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari, the presidential candidate of the main opposition party, was in a convivial mood as he mounted the podium to address the over 50, 000 estimated crowd.
As he reeled out his plans and programmes if elected as president on February 14 to the huge and enthusiastic audience, the former military Head of State would have been chuckling inside of him wondering how his support base in the state, nay the South-South region, has gone full cycle within a space of four years.
Rewind to the scenario in 2011 when the Katsina-born retired Army General was practically a political persona non grata, whose only campaign in the whole of the region was in Yenagoa, the Bayelsa State capital, with a dismal attendance to boot.
But times have changed. Now running on a bigger and broader political platform, Buhari has kicked off his campaign in the home base of his major opponent, President Goodluck Jonathan who, predictably, recorded a landslide victory in the 2011 presidential election in the oil-rich region.
Breakdown of 2011 results
In the weeks and days preceding the 2011 election, it was obvious Buhari, then contesting on the platform of six-month old Congress for Progressives Change (CPC), would be trounced by the president in the South-South zone. And the breakdown of the results aptly confirmed earlier forecasts.
In Edo State, President Jonathan won with a wide margin, polling 542, 173 votes as against Buhari’s 17, 795 votes. Number of registered voters in the state in 2011 was 1, 412, 225.
In his home state of Bayelsa, the president got 504, 811 votes exceeding the number of registered voters put at 472, 389 voters. Buhari recorded a paltry 691 votes.
Rivers State people massively queued behind Jonathan, recording a landslide victory of 1, 817, 762 votes, with Buhari getting just 13, 182 votes. Total number of registered voters was 2, 419, 057.
The scenario in Akwa Ibom State was not different. The president had 1, 165, 629 votes as against 5, 348 voters who voted for Buhari. A total number of 1, 714, 781 voters registered for the election.
It was also a big haul for the president in Delta State garnering 1, 378, 851 votes out of the total registered voters of 1, 900, 055 to Buhari’s 8, 960, while in Cross River state with a voter figure of 1, 018, 550, Jonathan had 709, 382 votes as against 4, 002 votes for Buhari.
Factors that worked for Jonathan in 2011
Central to Jonathan’s resounding victory in the South-South in 2011 was the home boy factor, a development that ensured that both registered and non-registered voters spoke with one voice.
Coupled with this is the quest by the people of the zone to have their “son” as Nigeria’s democratically elected president for the first time in the country’s political history. It was one golden opportunity that the people of the region readily grabbed with both hands.
Another factor that worked maximally in the president’s favour during the polls is the grass to grace campaign slogan of the president which resonated not only in the South-South but across the country.
The president’s “easy victory” in the region, many posit, could also be attributed to the control of five out of the six states in the region, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, Rivers and Delta by his party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), with the exception of Edo State then controlled by the defunct Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) now fused into the APC.
The five PDP governors comprising of Godswill Akpabio (Akwa Ibom), Timipre Sylvia (Bayelsa), Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Rotimi Amaechi (Rivers) and Emmanuel Uduaghan (Delta) reportedly mobilised government machinery behind Jonathan in their states, just as Governor Adams Oshiomhole of Edo, though belonging to the opposition, was also alleged to have provided tacit support for Jonathan’s presidential aspiration.
2015 poll presents different scenarios
Unlike in 2011, when the groundswell of support for the president in the South-South was as overwhelming as it was widespread, political watchers say the scenario currently playing out as the February 14 presidential election approaches is a clear indication that the president has a big battle to contend with if he is to repeat his 2011 electoral feat.
From the controversies trailing the PDP primaries in most of the South-South states, to the defection of big wigs in the party to the APC and the peculiarities of the local politics in Delta and Akwa Ibom states, owing to the zoning formula adopted by the ruling party, appears to have seriously fragmented the ruling party down the line thereby putting its chances at the polls in jeopardy.
The first indication that the president was losing grip of control of his region was the defection of Governor Rotimi Amaechi and ex-governor, Timipre Sylva to the APC early in 2014.
And despite overt and covert moves by the Presidency to remove Ameachi from office, the governor has not only consolidated his hold on the state, he has since become a thorn in the flesh of his traducers with his regular and scathing criticisms of the president, his wife, Dame Patience Jonathan and the PDP-led federal government.
What is more, Amaechi as the Director-General of the Buhari Campaign Organisation, has given more fillip to the APC presidential campaign. That the APC also flagged off its presidential campaign in Rivers State was even more instructive.
Compare and contrast this to the subdued tension within the Rivers PDP still battling to contain the disenchantment of some governorship aspirants kicking against the candidacy of Barrister Nyesome Wike.
Efforts by the party leadership to calm frayed nerves have only recorded a marginal success, with many of the aspirants allegedly threatening to work against the party during the polls.
Sylva is also another former ally of the president turned foe. From the same state, Bayelsa with the president, both men no longer see eye to eye, a situation not unconnected to the unceremonious exit of Sylva from the Bayelsa Government House in 2012 allegedly at the president’s behest.
The former governor is now a chieftain of the APC to whose credit the opposition party has established a presence in Bayelsa State. Sylva, who sources say is still highly influential within some powerful circles in the state, is also the APC senatorial candidate for Bayelsa East.
With a campaign slogan, “A home job for a home boy,” many Bayelsans are reportedly in support of Sylva to clinch the senate seat against his main challenger, Mr. Ben Bruce of the PDP, who is viewed rightly or wrongly as an “outsider.”
And in Edo State, the president has an uphill task to win the state next month. Not only is the governor fully on the board of his party’s campaign this time around unlike in 2011, Gen. Buhari’s chances in the state is further boosted on account of the influence of the APC National Chairman, Chief John Odigie-Oyegun, who hails from the state.
Disturbing signals for the president is also coming from Akwa Ibom, with many PDP leaders defecting to the APC in protest against the governorship primaries of the party, which produced Udom Emmanuel, Governor Godswill Akpabio’s anointed candidate.
The APC is presently fancying its chances in next month’s polls as it boasts formidable politicians in the state including former Secretary to the State Government, Umana Okon Umana, a former ally of the governor, who is now the party’s governorship candidate.
Other major stakeholders who are not on the same page with the governor and indeed the PDP in the state are two former governors, Akpan Isemin and Obong Victor Attah, Senator Helen Esuene, Dr. Ime Umanah and former Minister of Petroleum, Don Etiebet, to mention but a few.
The changing political permutations in Delta State is also another major challenge the president must contend with in his desire to win the state come next month.
Sources disclosed that the Urhobos, the largest voting bloc in the state, are peeved with the president and the PDP for not ceding the party’s governorship ticket to the ethnic group, while vowing to work against the president’s re-election.
The APC, it was gathered, is waiting in the wings to reap from this slip with recent reports claiming that the party’s governorship candidate in the state, Otega Emerhor, is facilitating a meeting between Gen. Buhari and the leadership of the Urhobo Progressive Union (UPU), the umbrella body of the ethnic nationality anytime from now.
The outcome of the meeting, sources aver, would go a long way to determine where the Urhobos would cast their lot in the 2015 governorship and presidential elections.
Conclusion
Within the political circles, fears are being expressed that President Jonathan many not have an easy run in the six states within the South-South geo-political zone.
Unlike in 2011 when the region stood in solidarity behind Jonathan irrespective of political affiliations, major political stakeholders are presently speaking in discordant tunes for and against the president, and in the process allowing the major opposition party to make a huge inroad into the region.
A source puts it this way, “While the opposition is making incursion into the president’s main stronghold, the same cannot be said of the president in the opposition’s strongholds.”
But for many political analysts, the president is still the man to beat in the six South-South states, but with visible bruises to show for it.
