Tag: BUHARI

The stage is set for the February 14 presidential battle between President Goodluck Jonathan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Gen. Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC). Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI examines the chances of the two candidates

Winning the February 14 presidential election is not going to be a stroll in the park for President Goodluck Jonathan of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party(PDP) or Gen. Mohammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for that matter. But, the APC standard bearer seems to enjoying the momentum, going by the good run he and his party is enjoying in the media. This is crucial because when it comes to elections, public perception cannot be waved aside just like that; particularly in this age, with the advancement in the world of information communication technology.

The PDP, which has been at the helm of affairs at the centre for the past 16 years, had been having it so easy in previous elections, because most of the parties in the opposition were regional-based, weak and fragmented. It was clearly foreseen that with the coming of the APC, which has transformed the country into a two-party state, a competitive contest was in the offing. In fact, it is said that this was the reasoning that propelled the move to form the APC, immediately after the 2011 elections.

The ruling PDP saw it coming. But, since old habits die hard, it could not turn a new leaf overnight. In that regard, the APC has been more proactive. Internal democracy has been a major problem for most Nigerian political parties. But, the APC has demonstrated a willingness for change in this respect with the manner it conducted its recent presidential prmary, where Buhari was picked as the party’s flag bearer. The opposition party has sent a strong signal to the ruling party with its decision to conduct the primary, even though it was clear to everyone that Buhari is the best man for the job, compared to the other aspirants. In the same vein, many observers believe that, as a sitting President, Jonathan would have equally picked up the party’s presidential ticket, if the party had allowed a free and fair election to take place. The clear message is that, for the first time since 2003, the PDP is facing a genuine challenge of being defeated at the polls.

Jonathan’s tough re-election battle

 Indeed, Jonathan faces a tough re-election battle. He appears to be confronted with a crisis of credibility. Analysts say he came with a lot of promise, but seems to have disappointed a lot of Nigerians who voted for him in 2011. Such Nigerians say the President has squandered the opportunity handed to him because one of his campaign messages of having no shoes as a young man moved them and they felt they could trust someone who comes from within their ranks. The underdog factor also worked in his favour when he was contesting the 2011 election, following the way the cabal in the late Umaru Yar’Adua’s administration tried to prevent him from taking over power, even though it was obvious that his principal was incapacitated.

Being an incumbent comes with the benefits and advantages of having something to showcase. It provides an opportunity to make more promises of a better tomorrow. Yet, the same incumbency factor opens the occupant of the office to a lot of criticisms about errors committed, things left undone or things that could have been done better. The perception of the public is that President Jonathan has performed below par. He would not have found himself in a situation where he would be struggling for his re-election had he delivered on key promises. The President’s team is not doing much to improve his poor public perception.

The APC has been exploiting this, by not giving him a breathing space; the party has stayed on the message all the time. The refrain of APC is that the PDP has run the country aground. It regularly cites the brazen corruption, the widespread insecurity and the worsening insurgency in the Northeast as reasons why Nigerians should vote for change.

It is not as if the mild-mannered Jonathan does not have achievements to flaunt. But, against the mountain of expectations, the general perception is that Jonathan, 56, has performed below par. In August 2012, Jonathan claimed he was the world’s most criticised president. This prompted him to vow to become the most praised before he leaves office.

With the changing political landscape in the country, which has whittled down the enormous advantages hitherto enjoyed by the ruling party, it is clear that the era of impunity is over. For instance, since 2003, the PDP was been able to win successive presidential elections easily because it had control over majority of Nigeria’s 36 states. As at the time the 2011 was conducted, the PDP was at the helm of affairs in 27 states. Today, it controls only 21 states. But, it can rely on the support of the Governor of Anambra State, which is a member of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA), one of the smaller parties that regularly back the PDP. The APC, on the other hand, controls 14 states.

Buhari riding on wave of popularity

But, Buhari’s performance in 2011, where he garnered over 12.2 million votes, has shown that incumbency advantage and control of the states by a particular party is limited by local factors such as the popularity of the candidate.. For instance, in 2011, the President could not win in 12 Northern states. Nine of the 12 states are PDP states, which voted for the ruling party during the governorship election, but opted for Buhari in the presidential election. This is in spite of the fact that Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) was less than four months old and was not in control of any state. Buhari as a candidate has never lost elections in states like Gombe, Kebbi, Niger, Kano, Katsina, Kaduna which are PDP-controlled states. Jonathan was however able to secure more than the 25 per cent of votes threshold in all but four Northern states. Interestingly, two of the four states were PDP-controlled.

Buhari’s major challenge in 2011 was the southern part of the country. In 2015, he can count on securing substantial votes from the Southwest, Rivers and Edo in the Southsouth and possibly Imo and Anambra in the Southeast.

Unlike the 2011 election, Jonathan is not going to enjoy the backing of voters from the four corners of the country. For instance, there are reports that members of his party in some parts of the North are afraid to openly identify with him as the party’s standard bearer in the election and are turning down offers to play a leading role in his campaign. With less than six weeks to the election, the campaign posters of the PDP flag bearer on the streets of major cities in the region, which are considered crucial for his re-election victory, are few and far between. This contrasts sharply with the situation four years ago, when promotional materials for Jonathan had sprung up in virtually all the northern states many months to the D-day.

A number of reasons have been adduced for this. A source ascribed it to the prevalent mood of the people, following the emergence of General Buhari as the APC flag bearer. Another is the fear of being labelled as anti-North. The voice of Buhari’s massive supporters appears to be drowning those of Jonathan in the zone. “The feeling here is that Buhari and the APC represent the best opportunity for power to return to the region and as such all northerners should line up behind the General and his party. Even in states where PDP is in power, the party’s chieftains are cautious about preaching Jonathan’s reelection so as not to offend the sensibilities of their people,” another source said.

Not yet uhuru for APC

But, it is not yet uhuru for the APC; the PDP equally has the wherewithal of staging a comeback. As a sitting President, the odds are stacked in his favour. This includes a huge financial resource base of N21 billion and the utilisation of governance machinery, propaganda and coercive apparatuses. No civilian president has lost a re-election bid in Nigeria’s political history. Jonathan may not be an exception.

Gen. Buhari has been described as a friend of the “masses’ and a nemesis for the elite. Indeed, the controversial N21 billion donations for Jonathan’s re-election by some of Nigeria’s moneybags suggests that the elite are not favourably inclined to a Buhari Presidency. A former military head of state, Buhari, aged 72, is widely regarded as honest and incorruptible. In fact, he remains a folk hero to many Nigerians because of his vocal opposition to corruption. But, the former Head of State has failed in three previous presidential elections in 2003, 2007 and 2011.

Beside the fear of the elite that he may likely crackdown on corruption and waste in government, his major baggage is the perception that he is a religious fundamentalist and northern irredentist. However, there is no concrete evidence to prove that these perceptions are true. Many have also raised the issue of Buhari’s age, saying he may not be able to function optimally as President of Nigeria. But, the age factor is neither here, nor their, because Buhari looks fit and rearing to go. Buahari has picked Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, a Christian from the Southwest as his running mate.

The President’s chances are going to be determined by how well he is able to perform in the North and the Southwest. From all indications, Jonathan’s candidacy has lost the voters confidence in the Southwest. Nevertheless, the recent elections in Ekiti and Osun suggest that the ruling party may spring a surprise in the Southwest.

The North is undoubtedly the stronghold of Gen. Buhari. He enjoys a cult following in that part of the country, including some states governed by the PDP. Since the core North is yearning to get back to power, Buhari is likely to have a smooth ride in the Northwest and Northeast, while much of the Northcentral may be more inclined to give Jonathan a second chance. President Jonathan’s running mate, Namadi Sambo, is from Kaduna, in the Northwest.

According to some observers, the choice that would confront the electorates in the February 14 presidential election is a difficult one. One of the observers puts it this way: “The Nigerian electorate faces a dilemma between the shambolic that is known and the uncertainty that is to come.” There is a plethora of reasons why some people would feel disappointed at the turn of events regarding the Jonathan presidency; just as those seeking change by rooting for Buhari may be heading into the sphere of the unknown.