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Tag: by-elections

  • How outcome of by-elections will shape 2027 race

    How outcome of by-elections will shape 2027 race

    The recent by-elections across the country offered more than just a contest for a handful of legislative seats: they provided a preview of the political storms gathering ahead of the 2027 general election. The All Progressives Congress (APC) emerged dominant, winning 12 of the 16 seats at stake. The ruling party’s incumbency muscle, a fractured opposition, and fragile voter trust set the stage for a high-stakes showdown in the next general election. Deputy Political Editor RAYMOND MORDI reports.

    The dust has settled on the recent series of by-elections across the country to fill vacant legislative seats in the National and state Houses of Assembly. During the elections, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) tightened its grip, opposition parties stumbled badly, regional players defended their turf, and the integrity of the process came under fire.

    Altogether, these outcomes tell a story that Nigerians already sense: incumbency remains a towering advantage, opposition disunity is a liability, regional strongholds could shape national outcomes, and the credibility of elections themselves may become the greatest battle of all. As the dust clears, one thing is clear: the by-elections were less about who won a handful of seats, and more about how power will be contested—and possibly consolidated—less than two years from now.

    Unlike past by-elections under former presidents Jonathan and Buhari, which were often treated as isolated local skirmishes, this round was widely regarded as a dress rehearsal for the 2027 election. The stakes and attention were visibly higher, reflecting a restless electorate and a fragile political balance. The elections were also a stress test for the electoral body, and perhaps most importantly, a crucial preview of the epic battle looming on the horizon in 2027. The results were a mixed bag, a patchwork of victories and losses that the ruling party has been quick to spin as a definitive triumph. Yet beneath the spin, the lessons are sobering and profound.

    The by-elections revealed four hard truths about the country’s political landscape heading into the 2027 general election.

    APC’s enduring grip

    The elections demonstrated the APC’s enduring grip, as the party emerged as the clear winner, securing 12 out of 16 seats up for grabs. Victories came in Edo, Kaduna, Adamawa, and other key battlegrounds. Access to state resources, established grassroots networks, and the ability to mobilise security and logistics tilted the playing field. Political analyst Dr. Aminu Yakassai put it bluntly: “Elections in Nigeria are not won on Twitter. They’re won in the wards, where the APC has permanent foot soldiers.”

    For party leaders, the outcome was proof that the ruling party has not only weathered the current economic and security challenges, but has also extended its grassroots reach. For APC strategists, the by-elections underscored what they already believed: that the ruling party remains the best-oiled machine in Nigeria’s politics, one with unmatched capacity to mobilise voters, secure logistics, and dominate at the ward level where elections are truly won.

    The APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, was quick to claim momentum: “These results confirm what Nigerians already know: the APC is not only in government, it is in their hearts. We are ready to defend our mandate in 2027.”

    President Bola Tinubu echoed that triumphalism, arguing that the by-elections “signaled grassroots support and unity” behind his government. His allies framed the outcome as validation of his first two years in office, despite economic headwinds and public frustration over subsidy removals and inflation.

    The APC’s dominance, however, cannot be understood in isolation. It sets the stage for examining why its rivals continue to falter—a contrast that reveals the scale of the opposition’s troubles.

    Opposition in disarray

    While the APC’s strength was on display, the election also exposed the opposition’s weakness in equal measure. Instead of rallying behind a single platform, opposition forces went into the by-elections splintered. The major opposition party, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC), once touted as a possible coalition platform to unify disaffected voters, often fielded separate candidates in the same constituencies, splitting anti-APC votes. In Adamawa North, for example, the PDP candidate lost narrowly while the ADC scraped just 42 votes—numbers that, combined, might have changed the outcome.

    The PDP managed to win some symbolic victories in Ibadan North and Onitsha North. Yet these scattered wins did little to mask the party’s internal divisions and its failure to project a unified alternative. The ADC leaders decried the process as deeply flawed. “This was not a contest of ideas; it was a rehearsal of fraud. If Nigeria cannot fix its electoral process now, 2027 will be a disaster for democracy,” said Bolaji Abdullahi, the Interim National Publicity Secretary of the ADC.

    PDP leaders in Edo were even more scathing, rejecting the results entirely: “This outcome is an embarrassment to democracy. What happened was not an election but a carefully orchestrated manipulation in APC’s favour.”

    The Labour Party (LP), which rode a wave of youth-driven ‘Obidient’ movement in 2023, faced a reality check. While it put up a strong fight in some areas, it failed to replicate its stunning 2023 performance, particularly in the Southeast. This suggests that its influence may have been a presidential-level phenomenon, and that building the requisite grassroots structures for legislative contests remains a monumental task.

    Read Also: By-elections results: PDP, others in panic review ahead of 2027

    “We are a movement transitioning into a full-fledged political party,” says Dr. Promise Nwosu, an LP chieftain. “That takes time. The by-elections showed our weaknesses in local organisation, but also confirmed our strong connection with the youth and the frustrated masses. Our focus for 2027 is bottom-up: building structures from the ward level up. The spirit of 2023 is still there; it just needs to be organised.”

    The implication is that, until the opposition finds a way to close ranks, its prospects in 2027 look bleak. And while the big parties tussle, smaller regional forces continue to quietly entrench themselves.

    APGA, NNPP maintain strongholds

    Nevertheless, amid the clash of the big parties, fringe parties demonstrated resilience in their various regional enclaves. In Anambra, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) defended its stronghold, winning both Senate and House constituencies. The New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), rooted in Kano, also secured a state assembly seat, reaffirming its relevance.

    The two parties proved that regional parties still matter. Their hold on local legislative positions them as potential kingmakers in 2027. Analysts warn that any opposition strategy that ignores these regional anchors will collapse. As election researcher Chinyere Okonkwo noted: “The battle for 2027 will not be won in Abuja, but in Awka and Kano.”

    This persistence of regional players dovetails into another theme: if smaller parties can hold ground despite limited resources, then the integrity of the process itself—how votes are counted, transmitted, and secured—becomes the critical battlefield.

    Electoral integrity on trial

    For the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the by-elections were a dress rehearsal for the next general election. Despite introducing revolutionary technology like the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) during the 2023 elections, the outcome of the contest was marred by significant operational failures, logistical setbacks, and accusations of result manipulation. Thus, the by-elections were a critical test: could INEC rebuild its battered credibility?

    The reviews are mixed. In some constituencies, the process was notably smoother. BVAS functioned effectively, and results were transmitted in a more timely manner. However, familiar ghosts of Nigeria’s electoral past reappeared. There were reports of voter intimidation, brazen vote-buying, and violence that disrupted the process in certain hotspots.

    Civil society groups warned that the by-elections exposed systemic weaknesses that could undermine the 2027 contest. The Election Situation Room, a coalition of independent monitors, noted: “The by-elections exposed systemic weaknesses—poor logistics, insecurity, and inadequate voter education. Without urgent reform, confidence in the ballot will erode further.”

    For Ibrahim Abdullahi, a coordinator for Yiaga Africa, “It was a case of one step forward, two steps back.” He added, “We saw improved technical efficiency in accreditation, but the systemic issues of violence and financial inducement of voters remain deeply entrenched. It shows that technology alone cannot cure the cancer of electoral malpractices. The political will to punish offenders is absent. For 2027, we need a holistic approach that addresses not just the machinery of voting, but the culture of impunity.”

    An INEC official, speaking anonymously, defended the commission’s performance. “Given the limited resources and the security challenges specific to by-elections, we believe we conducted a credible exercise. The failures of 2023 were a learning process. The BVAS performed at over 98 per cent efficiency across the board. Our focus now is on strengthening our collaboration with security agencies to curb violence and vote-trading.”

    Still, BVAS failures, reports of vote-buying, and allegations of collusion cast doubt on the fairness of the by-elections. Turnout figures underscored the malaise: in many constituencies, less than one in 10 registered voters showed up. INEC’s data revealed that participation was as low as 8 to 15 per cent—worse even than the 2023 general election, which already had a record-low national turnout of 27 per cent. If INEC cannot address these systemic issues, the 2027 election could spark a legitimacy crisis even if the APC sweeps it again. Civil society groups have been lobbying for stronger legal safeguards, real-time transmission of results, and prosecution of electoral offenders. As one Lagos-based activist put it: “The question is not whether the APC can win. The question is whether Nigerians will believe the result.”

    For the electoral body, the path to 2027 is its final chance to restore credibility. It must move beyond technical fixes and aggressively collaborate with civil society and security agencies to combat vote-buying and violence. The judiciary’s role in punishing electoral offenders will also be under intense scrutiny.

    And this brings the focus back to the ruling party itself: how it interprets these mixed signals may determine whether 2027 becomes a consolidation or crisis.

    Conclusion: warning signals for APC

    Within the corridors of power at the Aso Rock Villa and the APC national secretariat, the by-election results are being framed as a resounding endorsement of President Tinubu’s policies. Winning seats from the opposition, particularly in Ebonyi, is touted as proof that the party is expanding its support base and that the public accepts the painful economic reforms as necessary medicine.

    “The victory of the APC in these elections, despite the temporary hardships, is a clear sign that Nigerians are wise and can see the larger picture,” declares Ismaeel Ahmed, a lawyer and prominent APC national official. “They understand that President Tinubu is laying a foundation for a sustainable economic future. It is a vote of confidence in our Renewed Hope Agenda. It energises us for 2027 and shows that our message is resonating.”

    Yet beneath the confident narrative lie troubling signs. The low voter turnout, which hovered between eight and 15 per cent in many constituencies, signals apathy and disillusionment. For a government needing legitimacy to push through tough reforms, disengaged citizens are a serious liability. Moreover, APC’s gains were uneven—rejections in several constituencies reflected mounting economic frustrations. In the view of many observers, the victories leaned heavily on incumbency power and state resources, not genuine enthusiasm.

    Professor Aisha Bala of the Department of Political Science, University of Jos, Plateau State, warned that the APC risks misreading the results. She said, “They are interpreting victory through the old Nigerian politics of ‘we captured the seat’. But the subtext is terrifying for them. The turnout was low, and those who did vote were often voting ‘against’ something, not ‘for’ something. If the economy fails to improve by 2027, incumbency may not save them from voter anger.”

    The by-elections offered a preview. Whether 2027 becomes a turning point or a repeat performance will depend on whether these lessons are taken seriously—or ignored. The 2027 election is likely to be a single-issue referendum on the economy and livelihood of Nigerians. The government has less than two years to demonstrate tangible improvements in the cost of living, food security, and job creation. If it fails, the outcome will be a severe backlash.

  • It was more than by-elections

    It was more than by-elections

    Three political parties are much talked about in the build-up to the 2027 elections: the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and the coalition’s special purpose vehicle African Democratic Congress (ADC). The first two are political war veterans, while the third was born out of due season, a little disoriented and abused. Joined in battle for the first time on August 16 in a three-horse by-elections race, the first two proved their mettle, while the third came an embarrassing cropper. Had the ADC proved its mettle by outscoring one of the first two even without winning outright, the country would by now be in an uproar, and coalition faithful encouraged by that hypothetical performance to begin making vaunted claims and welcoming defectors en masse. The ADC may be led by talkative and intrepid champions, but its leaders were unwise to have rushed the still unprepared party into a bruising and bloody political war that has now prematurely revealed a number of noticeable undercurrents in the shifting politics of the core North.

    The elections were held in 12 states across two senatorial, five House of Representatives, and 10 state assembly constituencies. The APC won in 13 constituencies, while the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) won in two, and the PDP and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) won in one each. The overhyped ADC led and inspired by former vice president Atiku Abubakar, former governors Nasir el-Rufai, Rauf Aregbesola, Aminu Tambuwal, and Rotimi Amaechi, among many others, not only failed to fly, as a newspaper colourfully put it, but there were also doubts last week when the election results began to filter out that the party even had wings. It may be too early to project how the parties will finally shape out in the next general election, but if the APC had lost or struggled, or split the honours with another party, the celebration in opposition ranks would be without precedent. That it won hands down has given it bragging rights. Party leaders and rank and file are relieved that they won, and won very handsomely. Having secured this by-elections advantage, among many other advantages that give it an early lead, they will hope to build on the August 16 successes and profit from the discouragement certain to cast a pall over the competing parties.

    The APC has a curious genetic makeup. Though generally well-organised, it has really never produced a highly popular champion to be its standard-bearer. In 2015, it won both the presidency and the National Assembly against the run of play, and indeed by fairly comfortable margins. In 2019, despite shambolic governance, it again won the elections. After what many analysts saw as a dismal record weighed down even more by an underperforming president, the now late Muhammadu Buhari, the party again surprised bookmakers by winning the 2023 polls by a comfortable margin in a three-horse race that could easily have produced a hung parliament. The party’s genetics then got more arcane at the last by-elections. Certain that the APC and its president had executed gut-wrenching economic policies deserving of severe punishment at the next polls, any polls for that matter, the country placed their bets and waited for the ruling party to receive a drubbing. Instead, the APC swept nearly everything in its path, winning by emphatic margins across four geopolitical zones. To boot, the elections were generally fair, despite opposition bellyaching.

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    But a few unheralded shifts are beginning to be noticeable. Firstly, constituents and party faithful are beginning to stabilise their membership and own their political parties, producing an inexplicably filial attachment to the parties they are growing to admire or even love, regardless of their antinomian properties. These shifts are noticeable in states where their governors have started to perfect the art of connecting, sometimes colourfully, with the electorate. It is of course not impossible for unseen tectonic political plates to shift and cause a party or governor to be defeated, but that shift would likely henceforth require such force that no ordinary opposition leader can summon. In Edo, Governor Monday Okpebholo of the APC has matured very quickly and mastered the art of addressing the hearts and minds of the Edo electorate such that voters can’t imagine jilting their lover. For the vacant Senate seat of Edo Central, the governor’s APC swept the poll by a dizzying 105,129 votes to the PDP’s 15,146 votes. For the Ovia House of Representatives seat, the APC also took it by an astronomical 77,053 votes to the PDP’s meager 3,838 votes. It was a shellacking of the most definitive variety authored by a governor who, when he was a candidate, was ridiculed as lexically profane.

    In Kaduna, Governor Uba Sani of the APC has proved to be a revelation. Resolute, deep and unpretentious, he has moved mountains to heal the ethnic and religious divides in the state. Armchair analysts and critics had touted the by-elections in Kaduna’s three seats as a war between former governor el-Rufai, whether he had made up his mind regarding where to belong between the ADC or Social Democratic Party (SDP) or not, and Governor Sani. Mallam el-Rufai drew huge crowds to his rallies and, with his fiery rhetoric and political invectives, postured as the real master of Kaduna. He was unsparing and loquacious, but as temperamental, divisive and imperious as ever. In Zaria Kewaye state constituency where he campaigned for the SDP, a party he claimed he still belong to even though he is recognised as one of the top leaders of the ADC, the APC took it by a solid 26,613 votes to SDP’s 5,721 votes. And in Basawa state constituency, where the less acrimonious PDP was prominent on the ballot, the APC took the seat by 10,926 votes to the PDP’s 5,499 votes. Neither ADC nor SDP fared well. And in the even more significant Chikun-Kajuru House of Representatives seat, the APC got an emphatic 34,580 votes to the mild-mannered PDP’s 11,491 votes.

    Apart from the APC taking two state seats in Taraba and Adamawa, though by narrow margins of a few hundred votes, equally telling was the APC victory in Niger State where the party took the state seat of Munya constituency by 12,556 votes to the PDP’s 5,646 votes. In Niger State, Governor Mohammed Bago has become one of Nigeria’s most colourful governors. Though he sometimes finds illiberal tendency irresistible, he exudes courage and depth while showing clearly that he does not lack direction. Both he and Kaduna’s Mr Sani have deliberately worked to acquire a pan-Nigerian approach to politics, refusing to restrict themselves to the ethnic and religious cocoon with which Mallam el-Rufai has framed and constrained his politics. It is also remarkable that despite the unremarkable exit of former APC national chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, the APC was not embarrassed in Kano where the indomitable Rabiu Kwankwaso holds sway. The APC not only took the state assembly seat of Ghari/Tsanyawa, it insisted that the Bagwai/Shanono seat was stolen. In short, constituents may have begun to take ownership of both their parties and constituencies, probably indicating emotional connection far beyond the obtrusions of local supremos or the pains and gains of national economic and social policies.

    Secondly, and perhaps more pertinently but a little hazy, the results of the by-elections reveal a war of replacement taking place in the core North. The region had been dominated by political leaders who subscribed, either openly or covertly, to ethnic exceptionalism, sectarian politics, feudal economic practices, and general retrogression. Decades of holding sway at the national level had done little to assuage their greed or their disinterest in alleviating the circumstances of the poor and alienated in their region. Gradually, but somewhat steadily, new leaders with a totally different worldview of nationalism and service are replacing the Ibrahim Babangidas, Atikus, el-Rufais, and surprisingly Kwankwasos. They may resist the trend, and convince themselves that their politics of stirring revolt against their opponents, whether in Abuja or in other parties, would work if reinforced by malicious propaganda, but as the by-elections indicate, changes are afoot. The likes of Messrs Bago and Sani are deliberately flirting with new political paradigms of inclusion, service, secularism, and nationalism. They are slowly and secretly repudiating the politics and ideology of domination, and are reaching out to kindred spirits nationwide. They have seen the new approach work at close quarters, and are tantalised by its potentials. They suspect it will be difficult, for the poor people they preside over are not as exposed and knowledgeable to comprehend the fundamentals of the economic change and social and political realignment needed to lift the country from poverty, or appreciate the dangers that would follow the division hardening everywhere in their region. Indeed the Kaduna and Niger governors know that decades of administering jaded panaceas have failed the region and impoverished its people. More, they sense that if change is not courageously embraced now, the explosion certain to come later might be unmanageable.

    The by-elections indicate that the country might be moving in a different, beneficial direction. In the months ahead, and in coming polls, proponents of the old politics will stubbornly resist change, and will double down on the ancient methods of political mobilisation. Their tactics will work in many places, and a significant section of the electorate will be enticed by the sorceries of the regional ancients, but overall, the replacement afoot will continue apace until politics in Nigeria assumes ideological hues. New leaders unencumbered by the politics of hate, division, religion and supremacy are emerging. That emergence will not be surefooted for the core North, for there are too many ancient religious and ethnic roadblocks engrafted into the system, but it is hard to see how it can be aborted entirely or even delayed for much longer. What cannot be doubted, however, is that a struggle to determine which direction the core North will go is already being fought. The shape of the war and the identities of the combatants may seem a little foggy at the moment, but the fight will intensify in the years ahead, and Nigerians may even be pleasantly surprised to discover that the positive aspects and outcomes of the struggle will, sooner than expected, impact the next general election as the region’s old political soldiers fade away.

  • By-elections: Police warn against violence in Kaduna

    By-elections: Police warn against violence in Kaduna

    The Police Command in Kaduna State has warmed against violence, vowing to deal decisively with any trouble maker during and after Saturday’s bye-elections in Kaduna State.

    The command’s spokesperson, DSP Mansir Hassan, gave the warning in a statement issued on Saturday in Kaduna.

    Hassan said , “The Command has warned the members of the public to remain peaceful and law-abiding during the  bye-elections.

    “The command has received credible intelligence that some politicians and their supporters are plotting to disrupt the electoral process and cause crises.

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    “The Police command warns that anyone engaging in violence, intimidation, vote-buying, thuggery, or disruption will be arrested and prosecuted.”

    He said  the command has made security arrangements in collaboration with other sister security agencies to ensure a peaceful electoral process.

    ” The Commissioner of Police, Muhammad  Rabiu urges all political actors, party loyalists, and their supporters to conduct themselves responsibly and desist from acts capable of causing unrest.

    ” The command assures law-abiding citizens of adequate security to protect them and ensure a credible electoral process, “Hassan said.

    He said the command was committed to maintaining law and order during the by-elections.

    Hassan urged the public to cooperate with the security agencies to ensure a peaceful and successful electoral process.

    (NAN)

  • By-elections: All eyes on Okpebholo, Soludo, Uba Sani, Makinde

    By-elections: All eyes on Okpebholo, Soludo, Uba Sani, Makinde

    • Edo: APC, PDP, ADC in show of strength
    • Anambra: APGA battles APC for late Ifeanyi Uba’s successor
    • Oyo: Can APC floor Makinde’s PDP in Ibadan North?
    • Kaduna: PDP, ADC take on Uba Sani in Kajuru/Chikun

    In reality, only 1.09 per cent of the 1,467 national and state legislatives seats will be at stake in today’s by-elections in parts of the country.

    But the political parties and their key actors are looking beyond the figures.

    From  the newly installed National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Prof. Nentawe G. Yilwatda to House of Representatives Speaker Tajudeen Abass, Governors Monday Okpebholo (Edo), Charles Soludo (Anambra), Seyi Makinde (Oyo),Uba Sani (Kaduna),Dapo Abiodun (Ogun),ex-Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai, national leader of the New Nigeria People’s Party Rabiu Kwankwaso, Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin, and  Labour Party’s presidential candidate in 2023, Peter Obi, this is one contest that can enhance or ruin relevance ahead of 2027.

    It is a litmus test for the governors of Edo, Anambra, Oyo, Ogun and Kaduna governors, where high-profile battles will be fought, and for Yilwatda who is leading the APC troops in his first major task as national chairman.

    Observers believe that a strong showing by the APC will further strengthen President Bola Tinubu’s foothold on the political landscape, while victory for crisis-ridden PDP could re-energise the party with more optimistic projections. And for smaller parties like ADC and LP, winning even one seat would be a morale booster.

    At stake are two senatorial seats, one each in Edo and Anambra; five House of Representatives seats and nine state assembly seats.

    The by-elections are scheduled for Adamawa, Anambra, Edo, Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano, Kogi, Niger, Ogun, Oyo, Taraba and Zamfara States.

    In Adamawa, five candidates are vying for the House of Assembly in Ganye. In Anambra, 12 candidates are slugging it out for the Anambra South Senatorial District seat, which became vacant with the death of Ifeanyi Ubah a year ago, while five candidates are running for the Onitsha North 1 state House of Assembly seat.

    In Edo State, eight contestants seek to occupy the Edo Central Senatorial District seat vacated by

    Governor Okpebholo, while eight others are vying for the Ovia North East/Ovia South West House of Representatives position.

    Jigawa State has 11 contenders for the Babura/Garki House of Representatives seat, Kaduna has nine gunning for a similar position in Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency while Zaria/Kewaye state constituency has six contestants.

    APC, PDP and ADC candidates are contesting the Kaduna State House of Assembly seat in Basawa.

    In Kano, the Shanono/Bagwa state assembly seat will be contested by 10 candidates, while in Kogi State, five political parties are fielding candidates for the House of Assembly seat in Okura and five are also contesting a similar seat in Munya, Niger State.

    In Ogun State, eight contestants are slugging it out for the House of Representatives seat in Ikenne/ Sagamu/ Remo North federal constituency while in neighbouring Oyo State the battle to represent Ibadan North Federal Constituency will be fought by the APC, PDP, ADC, APGA and ZLP.

    In Taraba, the three political parties are fighting to take the House of Representatives seat in Karim Lamido Federal Constituency while 14 political parties are jostling to represent Kaura Namoda South in the Zamfara State House of Assembly.

    Additional polls that were not listed on INEC website are the two court-ordered re-runs which INEC’s National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, Sam Olumekun said would take place in Enugu South I (Enugu) and Ghari/Tsanyawa (Kano) after previous attempts were disrupted by violence. INEC’s initial plans for by-elections in Rivers’ Khana II and Zamfara’s Talata Mafara South constituencies remain suspended owing to security and legal issues.

    The APC National Chairman visited Ogun and Edo states on Thursday and met with Governors Abiodun and Okpebholo to “tighten our preparedness and strengthen our winning strategies.”

     Yilwatda, in a post on his X handle @nentawe1, said: “The energy and determination I saw among our leaders and members on the ground filled me with renewed confidence that the APC is ready to deliver decisive victories.

    “Our mission as a party is about service, unity and the shared dream of a greater Nigeria.

    “In this defining moment, I call on all APC members and supporters to stand as one, work tirelessly and keep faith in our collective strength.

    “Victory is not just possible; it is certain when we march forward together with purpose and conviction. Our unity will deliver our victory.”

    The APC National Secretary, Senator Ajibola Bashiru, said the party committed the same energy accorded the general elections to the by-elections.

    “We are prepared for the by-elections in all the 16 constituencies. The same commitment we give to the general elections is what we are giving to off-season elections. August 16 election is no exception,” he told The Nation.

    “With the level of our preparation, we are optimistic of victory. We are optimistic that we shall be victorious in almost all the constituencies come Saturday, August 16.”

    Kaduna: El-Rufai, PDP take on Uba Sani

    Historically, Kaduna State has always been the epicentre of power politics in the country, and the active involvement of Governor Sani, his predecessor El-Rufai and HoR Speaker Abass in the campaigns for their candidates in Chikun/Kajuru Federal Constituency, Zaria/Kewaye state constituency as well as Basawa state constituency is already causing anxiety across the state.

    Former governor, Nasir El-Rufai, has been working round the clock to ensure victory for the ADC-led opposition coalition candidate for House of Representatives in Chikun Local Government Area, Mr. Alex Adamu, taking the campaign to Kujama, Rido and Nassarawa wards, and for ADC candidates in Zaria/Kewaye and Sabon Gari.

    Since breaking ranks with the APC, he has been in the vanguard of the opposition to the ruling party and is determined to prove that he is still a force to reckon with in the state.

    But some ADC members led by the state chairman, Ahmad Tijjani Mustapha, are resisting the former governor and his supporters who they accused of seeking to hijack the party from the ‘original’ members.

    Mustapha declared in a statement on Thursday night that the ADC was not in any alliance with the Social Democratic Party (SDP) for the purpose of the election.

    He said the ADC would contest the elections independently and had not formed any formal or informal coalition with other political parties.

    He emphasised that no agreement—written or verbal—exists between the ADC and the SDP regarding the upcoming polls.

    “The ADC in Kaduna State is not in any coalition or alliance. We remain focused on our campaign and encourage our supporters to vote for ADC candidates,” Mustapha said.

    Governor Sani, who has won to his side many frontline politicians in the state since he assumed office, is also determined to prove his worth as a formidable force.

    Observers say recent defection of political heavyweights in all parts of Southern Kaduna into APC can make all the difference for the ruling party.

    The generality of the people of Southern Kaduna appear to be comfortable with the Sani administration, with many of them saying the governor has addressed their complaints of marginalization.

    His campaign focused on the relative peace in a state that had practically being taken over by bandits prior to his swearing in as governor.

    Speaker Abass, an indigene of the state, joined in the campaign for the APC, mobilising the people for the election.

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    Abass on Thursday led the grand finale of the APC campaign for the Zaria Kewaye State Constituency.

    It was a five-hour rally rounded off with a drive through the streets of Zaria Kewaye, including Tudun Wada, Tukur-Tukur, Kufena, Dutsen Abba and Filin Idin Katsinawa.

    “With the mammoth crowd that attended the grand finale of the campaign rally, I am convinced that victory shall be ours come Saturday,” he said on his X handle Hon Abbas Tajudeen, PhD. @SpeakerAbbas

     Sani, a former civil rights activist, grew up at great distance from ethnic and religious discrimination that plagued some of his predecessors.

     Edo: APC, PDP in supremacy battle

    The Edo Central Senatorial District seat was vacated by Governor Okpebholo (APC) who has been pulling all the strings to ensure that the seat remains in his party.

    Fresh from what political foes tried to define as a controversial victory in the 2024 governorship election, Governor Okpebholo faces his first electoral test as APC leader in that contest and that of the Ovia North East/Ovia South West Federal Constituency.

    Despite PDP’s keen preparations and its use of the incumbency factor during the Edo State governorship elections, Okpebholo roundly defeated PDP at the polls and in the courts.

    The PDP wants victory in the elections badly if only to prove claims by its leaders that it was robbed of the governorship last year.

    Candidates for the election in Edo Central are Hon Joseph Ikpea (APC) Prince Joe Okojie (PDP) and Hon Sergius Ogun (ADC).

    The candidates for Ovia Federal Constituency in Edo South are Barrister Omosede Igbinedion (APC) Aikpitanyi Johnny (PDP) and Dr. Osayuki Asemota (ADC).

    Other political parties in the race are the Action Alliance (AA), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Action Peoples Party (APP), Action Democratic Party (ADP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

    The APC seems to have the edge in Ovia Federal Constituency owing to the coming together of two former rivals – Deputy Governor Dennis Idahosa and Barrister Igbinedion. Idahosa edged out Barrister Igbinedion from the House of Representatives in 2019 and defeated her again in 2023.

    Idahosa hails from Ovia South West while Igbinedion hails from Ovia North East. The Igbinedions are a strong political family. Their patriarch, Chief Gabriel Igbinedion, the Esama of Benin, is responsible for many developmental projects in both local government areas.

    Edo Central used to be the stronghold of the PDP until Governor Monday Okpebholo broke the jinx in 2023 to become the first elected APC Senator from the district. Okpebholo personally led the APC campaign in Edo Central.

    The PDP had also campaigned effectively across the five local government areas. Candidate of the PDP, Prince Joe Okojie, hails from Uromi, the community with the highest number of voters in Edo Central.

    The defection of PDP leaders ahead of the by-election may affect the chances of the party in today’s election.

    Meanwhile, Edo State Chairman of the PDP, Tony Aziegbemi, has raised the alarm over alleged plot by the APC to subvert the will of the people.

    He said credible intelligence showed a multi pronged plan involving inducement of voters with cash, smuggling of prewritten result sheets into collation centres and the use of the Nigerian Police Force to unlawfully deny duly accredited PDP agents access to collation centres.

    Aziegbemi said the party uncovered plans to unleash armed thugs to violently disrupt voting in PDP strongholds.

    “This brazen move is aimed at producing a violent and manipulated outcome that bears no resemblance to the true will of the people. Democracy is about the will of the people freely expressed at the ballot box, not the will of desperate politicians imposed at gunpoint,” he said in a statement.

    Anambra: Soludo’s APGA,APC,Obi’s candidate slug it out

    How much influence does Peter Obi still wield in his home state of Anambra ahead of 2027? The answer will emerge today when his candidate, Donald Amamgbo of Africa Democratic Congress (ADC) faces APC’s Azuka Okwuosa and APGA’s Emmanuel Nwachukwu in the Anambra South Senatorial by-election.

    The late Ifeanyi Uba won the seat in 2023 on the platform of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) but defected to the APC. 

    Governor Soludo, who has an axe to grind with Obi, is doing all he can to get it for Nwachukwu while the APC is leveraging on Uba’s political machinery.

    The Labour Party (LP) on whose platform Obi contested the 2023 election as presidential candidate is raging that he forsook the party to campaign for ADC candidates this time around.

    Factional chairman of the LP, Julius Abure, branded Obi delusional and mischievous for asking voters to go for ADC candidates when Labour Party candidates are on the ballot.

    “It is unfortunate that Obi has turned himself into an irony and a paradox in the Nigerian political space,” Abure said.

    “He is now reputed to have elevated subterfuge in the game of politics and has of late been crying wolf where there is none.

    “He has turned himself into an ‘Uber’ politician, not willing to take a position and stand by his decision.

    “He has now booked a place for himself in the Guinness Book of Records as a person affiliated with many political parties at the same time, all in his desperation to preside over Nigeria.

    Obi has been flirting with ADC. He said his decision to campaign for ADC candidates was because the LP has no candidates recognised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) amid an internal crisis.

    Police Inspector General Kayode Egbetokun has deployed Assistant Inspector General of Police, Godwin Eze, as the Supervisory Officer to Anambra for the two by-elections in the state.

    While addressing the Officers at state Police headquarters on Thursday, he made it clear that only the police and other recognised government security outfits will take part in the elections.

    The implication is that the security outfits set up by the Governor, Prof Chukwuma Soludo, namely, Agunechemba and Operation Udo Ga Achi, will not be allowed to operate while the elections are on.

    He said:”Consequently, all vigilante operatives, hunters and other quasi-security outfits are strictly prohibited from any form of engagement during the exercise.

    “Furthermore, to ensure a safe and hitch-free election, there shall be restrictions on vehicular movement from 6am to 6pm in the affected areas throughout the election period. 

    “The areas include Nnewi North and South, Orumba North and South, Ekwusigo, Aguata and Ihiala local government areas respectively, for the Anambra South Senatorial District.

    “Others are Onitsha North Constituency 1 as well as Awka South Local Government Area where the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Headquarters is located.”

    Abiodun, Adebutu rekindle rivalry in Ikenne/Sagamu/Remo North

    The stakes are no less high in Ikenne/Federal Constituency of Ogun State where the state governor Dapo Abiodun and the PDP governorship candidate in 2023, Ladi Adebutu, are back in the trenches to test their popularity ahead of 2027.

    Both Abiodun and Adebutu are from Remo.

    The governor is rooting for APC’s Princess Sola Elegbeji while Adebutu is all for PDP’s Bolarinwa Oluwole. The seat was won in 2023 by APC’s Hon. Adewunmi Oriyomi Onanuga a.k.a. Ijaya.

    Onanuga died last year.

    Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriations, Senator Solomon Olamilekan Adeola, has also thrown his weight behind Elegbeji, describing her as “the right choice at the right time.”

    Adeola, who represents Ogun West, said Elegbeji is “an apostle of the progressive doctrines of the late Chief Obafemi Awolowo,” and “a true scion of Remo Federal Constituency whose political philosophy is rooted in service, equity, and enlightenment.

    “Princess Sola Elegbeji is not just a candidate—she is a continuation of a legacy,” Adeola said.

    “She has subscribed fully to the tenets of the Renewed Hope Agenda as championed by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Governor Dapo Abiodun. Her emergence is a convergence of history, competence, and vision,” he added.

    The APC regards the election a must win as it wants to prove that it is firmly in charge in the state. The governor, Dapo Abiodun, and top members of the state chapter of the APC are leaving nothing to chance.

    On its part, the PDP wants to win the contest to prove that it is a formidable force in the state.

    Oyo: Can APC topple Makinde’s PDP in Ibadan?

    Governor Makinde has a lot to prove in the Ibadan North state constituency by-election today.

    For a man regarded as one of the current backbones of the PDP believed by some to be nursing presidential ambition in 2027, there would be no better opportunity than now to show his strength.

    And he needs a decisive win to make his point.

    Power Minister Bayo Adelabu, who has his eyes on the 2027 governorship ticket of the APC, is also being looked upon by party members to demonstrate his relevance in his home town.

    Barau woos voters in Kano

    Deputy Senate President Barau Jibrin led APC stakeholders to Shanono to woo voters ahead of the Shanono and Bagwai state constituency by-election.

    The by-election is to fill the vacancy created by the demise of Halilu Kundila, a member of the APC.

    Barau appealed to the people to vote for Ahmed Kademu, the APC candidate, in appreciation of the Tinubu administration’s reforms.

    House of Representatives member Kabiru Abubakar from Bichi Constituency urged the people to support the APC candidate for a brighter future.

    He highlighted the party’s commitment to developing the constituency, including a pledge to construct N10 billion worth of rural roads.

    Kano State is controlled by the NNPP and is the home state of its leader Rabiu Kwankwaso.

    Barau is determined to prove his relevance by delivering the election for the APC.

    In Taraba, it is Kanda versus Shittu

    For the Karim Lamido Constituency, Taraba State, the contest is between Ali Kanda (PDP) and Abner Shittu (APC). Both of them are greenhorns.

    The constituency has been assailed by insecurity in the last three months. Thousands of lives have been lost and property destroyed by armed militias.

    Ahead of the by-election, APC set up a 55-man campaign council.

    It is headed by Senator Abdulazeez Yari, with Senator Orji Uzor Kalu as vice chairman.

    But the PDP, which controls the state, said it is not perturbed.

    Dogari, Bawa, Adabyinlo poised for showdown in Niger

    Gaje Dogari (APC), Joshua Bawa (ADC) and Sunday Sabo Adabyinlo (PDP) are poised for a showdown in Munya state constituency of Niger State.

    APC Publicity Secretary Hon. Labaran said the party would win because the Governor Bago administration has not disappointed the state. 

    The ADC Chairman, Mohammed Yahaya, however disagreed, saying that his party would win.

    SDP to participate in by-elections, says INEC

    The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) yesterday announced a last-minute inclusion of the Social Democratic Party in the list of parties participating in the by-elections.

    Spokesman for the commission, Sam Olumekun, said this followed the judgment of the Federal High Court, Abuja ordering the commission to accept the list of candidates presented by the party.

    The Commission said it did not include the party at the initial stage because SDP did not notify it of the conduct of party primaries and therefore did not monitor same as required by law.

    The statement reads: “The Commission has been served with the judgment of the Federal High Court, Abuja Division, in Suit No. FHC/ABJ/CS/1525/2025.

    “In the judgment, the Commission was ordered to include the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and its candidates in the by-elections in 12 states of the federation. The party did not earlier submit a valid notice for the conduct of primaries for the by-elections. For this reason, they were not monitored by the Commission.

    “However, in compliance with the judgment, the names of the candidates submitted manually have been accepted and published on our website. The party will participate in the by-elections.

     “The Commission wishes to assure the public, especially voters in the 12 states, that the 11th-hour judgment will not affect the election which will proceed tomorrow Saturday, 16th August, 2025 as scheduled.

    “Meanwhile, the Commission will exercise its legitimate right of appeal under the law.”

    Materials for the election were being moved to the various local government areas yesterday as the commission intensified its preparation for the polls.

    The Commission has accredited 60 local and four foreign election observers including the European Union delegation whose names have been published by the commission to monitor the election.

    INEC Chairman Prof. Mahmood Yakubu assured Nigerians on Thursday that the commission was fully prepared for the by-election, with personnel and sensitive materials being deployed.

    In his speech during INEC’s last consultative meeting with political parties, Prof. Yakubu stated that deaths, resignations and other factors necessitated the declaration of vacancies and the need for by-elections.

    In a statement on Thursday, INEC’s National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, Sam Olumekun, gave assurances of INEC’s preparations for smooth conduct of today’s polls, noting that 3,553,659 registered voters are eligible to participate across 32 local government areas, 356 wards, and 6,987 polling units.

    Altogether, 30,451 officials have been deployed nationwide, even as INEC prepares to resume nationwide Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) exercise on Monday, August 18, with online pre-registration, followed by physical registration from August 25 at 811 INEC state and local government offices.

    Police restrict movement in affected states

    The Police authorities ordered restrictions on all forms of vehicular movement on roads, waterways, and other forms of transportation from 12 am to 6 pm today within localities where the by-elections are taking place.

    The only people exempted are those on essential services including INEC Officials, accredited media and electoral observers, ambulances responding to medical emergencies and firefighters.

    Police Inspector General Egbetokun directed the deployment of operational logistics to the affected local government areas in  Anambra, Kano, Oyo, Taraba, Enugu, Adamawa, Edo, Jigawa, Kogi, Kano, Ogun, Zamfara and Niger states.

    In order to ensure smooth elections, the IGP has also directed the deployment of senior officers of the rank of Assistant Inspector-General of Police and Commissioners of Police to assist state Commissioners of Police to ensure proper supervision of the electoral process for a smooth and hitch-free election.

    Also deployed are officers and men of the Police Mobile Force, Special Intervention Squad, Force Intelligence Department and other tactical units.

    Force Public Relations Officer, DCP Olumuyiwa Adejobi, who signed the statement, said all security aides to VIPs and escorts are not allowed to accompany their principals and politicians to polling booths and collation centres during the election.

    He added: “State-established and owned security outfits/organisations, quasi-security units, and privately-owned guards and security outfits are also barred from participating in election security management.

     “The Inspector General of Police hereby charges all officers deployed for this special duty to ensure compliance with NPF standard operational protocols for elections and further urges all citizens to be law abiding during and after the elections and assures that all necessary security arrangements have been emplaced to ensure their right to vote is unobstructed.”

    Police commissioners in Oyo and Kogi States also announced their readiness for the day.

  • Reps committee clarifies law on serving lawmakers contesting in by-elections

    Reps committee clarifies law on serving lawmakers contesting in by-elections

    Hon. Adebayo Balogun, Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Electoral Matters (INEC), has clarified that no law prevents serving lawmakers or political office holders from contesting in by-elections in Nigeria.

    The Lagos state federal lawmaker emphasised that ongoing electoral reforms do not disenfranchise serving legislators at either the state or federal level from exercising their constitutional rights to vote and run for office.

    Speaking in Abuja during an interaction with journalists, Hon. Balogun stressed the importance of ensuring that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) remains truly independent and adequately funded to effectively carry out its constitutional duties.

    Representing the Ibeju-Lekki Federal Constituency in Lagos State, Balogun further stated that INEC should not use inadequate funding as an excuse to deny serving parliamentarians the right to participate in by-elections, highlighting the vital role experienced lawmakers play in the political space.

    “If I were to advise, it is even better to use serving members who are experienced. For instance, if you are replacing a senator, you should consider a House of Representatives member who has experience in the field.

    Read Also: Unsafe abortions fuel maternal deaths in Nigeria, says LIFE 

    “It is unfortunate that by-elections arise due to events such as deaths or resignations. But when these opportunities come, they should not be restricted to certain individuals. Democracy is about allowing everyone to participate and letting the person with the highest votes win.”

    Hon. Balogun emphasized that politics is not just about cost-saving but also about representing the will of the people. “Democracy is about numbers and the interests of the people. Let the wish of the people prevail in every federal constituency, senatorial district, and the country at large.

    “An advice is not a law. No one should unlawfully disqualify a candidate simply because of the INEC Chairman’s suggestion. Any interested individual should continue with their ambition, and let the electorate in their constituencies make the final decision.”

    He reiterated that it would be unlawful for any party or body to exclude a candidate on such grounds, describing such a move as unconstitutional.

    Hon. Balogun stressed the significance of lawmakers’ experience in governance, citing examples of individuals like Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa State and his deputy, as well as other leaders who were serving lawmakers before contesting higher positions.

    He noted that many serving legislators who contested elections in states like Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, and Kogi, among others, have proven their competence in governance.

    The lawmaker disclosed ongoing efforts to ensure INEC receives adequate funding and financial autonomy. 

    He urged political parties and the electorate to consider fielding serving lawmakers for higher electoral positions, particularly in by-elections, to leverage their legislative experience.

    “Their experience in lawmaking is invaluable and has been evident in the success of past officeholders,” he concluded. 

  • By-elections: Rep seats, others at stake in Lagos, Kano, Ondo, others

    By-elections: Rep seats, others at stake in Lagos, Kano, Ondo, others

    • DSS calls for violence free polls; security beefed up
    • Movement restricted in affected constituencies
    • Ebonyi PDP candidate fumes over his exclusion by court

    Voters in 26 states of the federation will go to the polls today to fill vacancies in the National and State Assemblies.

    The affected states are Ebonyi, Yobe, Kebbi, Lagos, Ondo, Taraba, Benue, Borno, Kaduna, Plateau and Akwa Ibom.

    The rest are Anambra, Cross River, Delta, Enugu, Jigawa, Katsina, Adamawa, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Kano, Nasarawa, Niger, Oyo, Sokoto, and Zamfara.

    Prominent among the seats at stake are Ebonyi South, Yobe East and Plateau North Senatorial Districts; Shanga/Ngaski/Yauri Federal Constituency of Kebbi State; Surulere I Federal Constituency of Lagos State; Akoko North East/Akoko North West Federal Constituency of Ondo State and Jalingo/Yorro/Zing Federal Constituency of Taraba State.

    Also being contested are Guma I State Constituency of Benue State, Chibok State Constituency of Borno State and Chikun State Constituency of Kaduna State.

    There will also be election in 42 polling units in Bauchi, Katagum and Ningi in Bauchi State; Tsanyawa, Kunchi, Kura, Garin Malam, Tofa, and Rimin Gado local government areas of Kano and Birnin Kudu Buji of Jigawa State; 165 poling units in Igbo Eze North and Udenu Federal constituencies in Enugu State as well as Enugu South State Constituency.

    Of interest is the election in Surulere 1 where the constituents will elect successor to former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr.Femi Gbajabiamila.

    Gbajabiamila relinquished his seat following his appointment as Chief of Staff to President Bola Tinubu.

    The election in Ebonyi South is to replace Works Minister Dave Umahi who resigned from the Senate to serve in the Tinubu Government while that of Yobe East is to replace Alhaji Ibrahim Gaidam who left the Senate to take up his present position.

    But the PDP candidate for Ebonyi South, Silas Onu, yesterday protested his disqualification from the by-election by a Federal High Court.

    Justice Hyeladziya Nganjiwa held that the PDP gave less than 21 days notice for parties to conduct congresses for the by-election as required by the Electoral Act.

    Onu faulted the ruling and said his party would go on appeal.

    He said: “While we acknowledge that the judgment is contrived and deliberately done for political reasons, we are filing our notice of appeal immediately to ensure that we legally continue our participation in the election.

    “Our supporters are called on to come out in their numbers and vote for PDP on Saturday 3rd February, 2024.

    “Today, we received a contrived judgment from Justice Ngajiwa of the FHC Abakaliki that PDP did not give INEC 21 days Notice of Congresses for the by-election.

    “It is interesting that INEC Abakaliki were the ones arguing about none issuance of 21 days notice to them. The REC, who is an active APC agent, deliberately refused to attend our activities even with notices given to them.

    “They monitored our primary election and asserted so. Yet, Justice Ngajiwa chose to ignore plethora of superior Court decisions on internal party affairs, even the recent Supreme Court’s decision on Plateau State. He pretended not to know that this is a by-election and also that he doesn’t understand internal party affairs.

     “The obvious design of the judgment given two days to election is to create confusion in the process and ensure that our teaming supporters are discouraged from voting – it is sad that a judge will make himself available for such a hatchet job.

     “The FHC is not the final court in pre-election matters and as such our participation is sacrosanct and our votes will count. God bless the PDP and the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

    DSS to parties: Be of good conduct

    The Department of State Services (DSS) asked the electorate and the political parties sponsoring candidates for the by-elections to be of good conduct during and after the exercises in the affected states.

    The Service advised the contending parties to shun all acts capable of causing a breakdown of law and order.

    Director, Public Relations and Strategic Communications, DSS National Headquarters, Abuja, Peter Afunanya, in a statement also called on politicians and their supporters must strive to adhere to the electoral act and procedure.

    The DSS enjoined citizens to be patriotic and loyal to the Nigerian nation beyond the elections.

    It urged public commentators, social critics and key players in the public space to consider the peace of the country over and above their personal or group interests.

    Read Also: By-elections: IGP orders massive deployment, movement restrictions across 26 states

    The Service similarly urged the Media, Civil Society and Community Based Organisations to shun divisive tendencies and fake narratives likely to undermine national order.

    “It is unarguable that it is only if there is a livable country that individuals, groups or corporate bodies can pursue and realise their legitimate businesses and ambitions,” the DSS said, adding that those engaging in subversive endeavours or desirous of doing so should desist.

    It pledged to discharge its own mandate and “work with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), other sister security and law enforcement agencies and indeed all stakeholders to ensure a hitch-free election. Additionally, it will continue to implement proactive measures to achieve the desired stability in the country.”

    The Police have deployed thousands of their personnel across the affected constituencies to ensure peaceful polls .The personnel are being aided by drones.

    The police also announced human and vehicular restrictions between midnight of Friday to 06:00 pm today in areas where the by-elections are scheduled to take place.

     The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was busy all through yesterday distributing electoral materials to officials.

    The Plateau State office of INEC denied social media reports that the rerun elections in Plateau North and Jos North/Bassa Federal Constituency had been postponed.

    Head of Department, Voter Education & Publicity Department of the Commission in Plateau State, Egwurube Michael Otokpa, said the re-run elections would proceed as scheduled.

    “It (INEC) has concluded all preparations for the conduct of the election,” he said.

  • By-elections: Are results signposts to 2019?

    Any moment from now, the parties will start naming their flag bearers for the general elections. The window of defections will remain open for aggrieved politicians to switch platforms until the electoral umpire drops the curtain on the submission of candidates’ names. Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the impact of recent defections on by-elections in four states and the factors that will define the forthcoming nationwide elections.

     

    Some factors that will shape 2019 elections

    • Nomination of candidate
    • Resolution of post-primary crises
    • Power of incumbency
    • Voter education/participation
    • INEC preparation
    • Political standing of defectors

     

    The National Assembly by-elections in four states have come and gone. The battle has been won and lost. But, can the outcome of the polls be a signpost for next year’s general elections.

    The by-elections were held in Cross River, Katsina, Bauchi and Kogi states to fill the seats that became vacant, following the demise of the legislators. Predictably, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) won in Cross River. But, the All Progressives Congress (APC) won in Katsina, Bauchi and Kogi.

    Ahead of the polls, the ruling APC and the opposition PDP flexed muscles. The PDP, still basking in the euphoria of defections from the APC, predicted doom for the ruling. Firing salvos at the APC, PDP leaders said the electoral misfortune awaiting the ruling party would underscore its poor performance. Reacting to the outburst, APC leaders said the result of the elections will shock the PDP to the marrow.

    The PDP candidate in Obudu Constituency, Cross River, Mrs. Abbey Ukpukpen, is the widow of the former lawmaker, Stephen Ukpukpen, who died in May. Her victory was a fitting tribute to the memory of her departed husband. Mrs. Ukpukpen’s victory, in part, confirmed that Cross River is still a PDP stronghold.

    But, it is a different story in other states. In Lokoja/Kogi Constituency, where the poll was conducted to fill the seat vacated by the late Umar Buba Jibrin, APC candidate Haruna Isah was elected to replace Jibrin in the House of Representatives.

    He polled 26,860 votes to defeat Bashir Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who got 14,845 votes. The exercise was not devoid of violence.

    “Thus”, according to the Returning Officer, Prof. Rotimi Ajayi, “19, 960 votes from 17 polling units-15 from Lokoja Local Government Area and two from Kogi Council-were cancelled”.

    In Katsina North Senatorial District, it was a great battle. Kano politician, Senator Rabiu Kwakwanso led the PDP campaign. The crowd was huge. The APC rally also sent a powerful message to the opposition. It was led by Vice President Yemi Osinbajo (SAN).

    At the close of poll, Ahmed Babba-Kaita, a member of the House of Representatives, became a senator-elect on the platform of the APC. He defeated his biological brother, Kabir Babba-Kaita of the PDP. The winner got 224,607. The defeated candidate, a retired custom officer, garnered 59,724 votes. Instructively, the APC defeated the PDP in all the 12 local governments that make up the district. President Muhammadu Buhari is from the district. He was neither around to campaign nor cast his ballot for Babba-Kaita, who won the crown.

    An excited former Katsina State House of Assembly Speaker Gwojo Gwojo attributed the victory to the voters’ faith in the President and the ruling party.

    The Katsina North seat became vacant, following the death of Senator Mustapha Bukar. The victory of the younger Kaita means that a new by-election must be held to fill his vacant position in the Green Chamber of the National Assembly.

    Eyes were also on the two main parties in Bauchi South Senatorial District. Prior to the poll, two senators – Isa Misau and Nazif Gamawa – had defected from the APC to the PDP. Many expected that House of Representatives Speaker Yakubu Dogara, who is said to be leaning towards the PDP, would spring a surprise. But, the result was contrary. While PDP won in Bogoro Local Government, Dass and Tafawa Balewa councils did not follow suit. The APC flag bearer, Lawan Gumau, triumphed over his PDP rival, Ladan Salihu. APC scored 119, 489 votes. PDP got 50, 256 votes. The former governor, Isa Yuguda, who ran on the platform of the Green Party of Nigeria (GPN) polled 33, 079, which confirmed his fading political influence.

    What do these scenarios portend for 2019? Defectors to the APC have argued that the ruling party has lost touch with Nigerians. But, the poll results may have proved them wrong.

    What was more striking, especially in Bauchi, Katsina and Kogi, was the wide margins. Was the poll outcome a confirmation of the president’s popularity? Or the potency of the APC and the formidability of its structures? Do the by-election results has a predictive value? If similar polls are held in Sokoto and Kwara states, will the results follow a similar pattern?

    Many observers believe that many factors will shape next year’s polls, which is a nationwide exercise. They include the politics of nominations and how post-primary crises are resolved, power of incumbency, the performance of the APC-led Federal Government and public perception of the government to the end.

    The campaign issues may remain the same – the economy, security, job creation, and anti-corruption battle. There are other interwoven variables that also matter in elections. These are the financial war chest of candidates and parties, the ability of the umpire to conduct a credible exercise, electoral security and voters’ participation.

    Exuding happiness, Secretary to Katsina State Government Mustapha Inuwa said the victory was a sign of success in 2019 elections.

    “The APC will emerge victorious in future elections because the landslide victories recorded in Bauchi and Kogi states are proofs of the party’s popularity among Nigerians,” Dr. Inuwa said.

    Southwest APC leader Pastor Bankole Oluwajana shares the same feelings. To him, the defection from APC will not affect its influence in its strongholds. “The people are with APC,” he said, adding that they are satisfied with the president’s performance.

    To Media and Publicity Presidential Adviser Femi Adesina, there is no cause for alarm. The President, he said, will not only win, but also with a wide margin. He said that while the vocal minority who consistently criticise the president are entitled to their voices, President Buhari is preparing for the 2019 with confidence.

    Adesina said: “Democracy is a game of numbers. There is a vocal minority that has been speaking. You think they are more than 10 million people. They have a voice. Look at what happened in Bauchi during the senatorial by-election. The women were voting and shouting Sai Baba. There are millions like that. A lot of people are with the president. On the social media, you may think the president is a goner. But, ordinary people think differently.”

     

  • By-elections: APC wins as LASIEC laments low turnout

    The Lagos State Independent National Electoral Commission (LASIEC) yesterday lamented low turnout of voters during the by-elections in two wards in Oshodi-Isolo and Agege Local Government Areas.

    All Progressives Congress (APC) candidates in the councils won the elections.

    Of the 18,339 registered voters in Agege and 17,279 in Oshodi, only handful of the electorate came out.

    Around 12:30 pm when LASIEC Commissioners went round to monitor the election, some polling units recorded between seven and nine votes.

    Chief Toyin Ibrahim-Famakinwa, who led other LASIEC Commissioners and officials to Oshodi-Isolo, described the action as terrible.

    “I’m not too happy about the turnout. People have no reason for not coming out to vote despite enough publicity by LASIEC.

    “It is so terrible that they are not coming.  People don’t take council elections serious, the weather is good; there is movement, what else?

    “Some people still have this I don’t care attitude to elections,” she lamented.

    Ibrahim-Famakinwa described the process as calm “because nobody wants to go to prison. We have want troublemakers to keep off as you can see the presence of security officials on the ground.”

    APC Khadijat Jimoh in Ward ‘B’ scored 2,208 votes to defeat her opponent from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) who got 343 votes.

    Rasheedat Adekunle of APC defeated PDP and Accord Party opponents, Abdul- Rasheed Lawal and Lookman Afogunlowo by 980 votes to PDP – 480 and Accord 288.

  • 118 police officers, DSS men for by-elections, says LASIEC

    No fewer than 188 police officers and officials of the Department of State Security (DSS) will be on ground for tomorrow’s by-elections in two wards in Oshodi-Isolo and Agege Local Governments, Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC) said yesterday.

    The by-elections will be held in Ward ‘B’, Ogunoloko in Oshodi-Isolo and Ward ‘B’, Dopemu in Agege.

    LASIEC Chairman Justice Ayotunde Phillips (retd) at a briefing yesterday at the commission’s office in Yaba, Lagos, said 18,339 registered voters will vote in 28 polling units in Agege while 17,279 will do same in 31 polling units in Oshodi.

    She said the commission will not allow electorate with Temporary Voters Card (TVC) to vote, urging them to stay away from the centres.

    “We have told the participating political parties that only people with Permanent Voters Card (PVC) will be allowed to vote,” she said.

    She said election materials will be distributed on Saturday morning.

    Phillips said three political parties, All Progressives Congress (APC), People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Accord Party would vie for the by-election in Agege; only APC and PDP will slug it out in Oshodi-Isolo.

    According to her, there would not be restriction of movement during the elections, since they are taking place in two wards.

    She warned that any person or persons who attempt to scuttle the poll with have only themselves to blame.

    LASIEC, she said, is working with relevant security agencies and other stakeholders, including traditional rulers in the affected areas to ensure security of lives and properties before, during and after the elections.

    “We have received assurance of security personnel for the elections. So eligible voters in the two wards should feel confident and entertain no fear of molestation from anybody,” she said.

    The LASIEC chief said a  “Situation Room” will be set up at the headquarters for effective communication between the commission and its officials on the field.

  • LASIEC seeks credible by-elections

    THE Lagos State Independent Electoral Commission (LASIEC) has warned youths and thugs to desist from acts that can mar the March 24 by-elections in Oshodi and Agege.

    Its Chairman, Justice Ayotunde Phillips (retd) said the commission would sanction anybody that disrupts the exercise .

    She spoke during stakeholders’ fora held in Oshodi and Agege on the forthcoming councillorship by-elections into Ward ‘B’ in Oshodi and Ward ‘B’ in Agege.

    Represented by a LASIEC Commissioner,  Mrs Toyin Ibrahim-Famakinwa, Justice Phillips urged the electorate to elect credible people.

    According to her, there would be no excuse for people to complain over lack of effective representation if they failed to elect candidates that would best represent their collective interest and aspirations.

    She enjoined eligible voters to arm themselves with their Permanent Voter’s Card.

    The LASIEC boss pledged to conduct a free, fair and credible poll.

    Winners, she said, would be declared at the collation centres.

    Baale of Dopemu, Alhaji Shitta Afogunlowo, urged the commission to maintain its neutrality as an umpire.

    Coordinator of the Department of State Service (DSS) for Agege Local Government, Mrs. Helen Okaette, warned that anybody caught with arms, fighting or causing trouble would not go scot-free.

    Makinde Police Station Divisional Police Officer Akinroye Adesina noted that the police should be notified of any attempt to sabotage the electoral process, promising that they  would act swiftly on such reports.