Tag: Cardoso

  • Carry go, Cardoso

    Carry go, Cardoso

    • Sanusi takes the heat off my zone over relocation of some CBN’s departments from Abuja to Lagos

    Hell has literally been let loose since the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced its intention to move some of its departments down to Lagos from Abuja about two weeks ago, so as to facilitate operations in those departments as well as save cost.

    The departments pencilled down for relocation are Banking Supervision, Other Financial Institutions Supervision, Consumer Protection Department, Payment System Management Department and Financial Policy Regulations Department.

    As usual, all manner of experts have suddenly sprung up denouncing the move and indeed asking that the apex bank rescind the decision. A senator of the Federal Republic even threatened that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu should be ready to face the political backlash for daring such a move. The Northern Elders Forum (NEF), one of the earliest groups to reject the move, said the decision would “widen economic disparity between Northern and Southern Nigeria”. How? It didn’t say. In a statement by NEF’s director of publicity and advocacy, Abdul-Azeez Suleiman, the body said “It would require significant financial investment as the CBN would need to allocate funds for setting up new offices, purchasing or leasing properties, relocating employees, and other infrastructural requirements. This would strain the CBN’s budget and divert resources away from other essential functions and initiatives.” Like the moribund and catastrophic Anchor Borrowers’ Scheme?

     It also said that the decision could lead to loss of expert members of the staff of the bank who may not be willing to relocate; that the relocation would entail the newly-posted people getting used to their environment and that valuable time would be lost to such adjustments. It added that the movement of the sections would hinder cooperation among the bank and other government agencies with which it must work together in Abuja, etc.  Is this a way of saying the policy was not well thought-out or just wanting to weep louder than the bereaved?

    The Northern Senators Forum (NSF) also joined the group of critics, including also the Arewa Consultative Forum. As a matter of fact, the senators forum said it may consider legal action on the matter even as it appealed to their constituents to remain calm while they explored all opportunities to make the government rethink the decisions.

    I must say I was not surprised that the reactions have come the way they did. I know the government too must have factored that into consideration while preparing the grounds for making the decisions public.

    It is instructive that Sanusi essentially chose to comment only on the CBN’s relocation; he was silent on the relocation of the FAAN to Lagos. I can understand why; apparently the CBN is his familiar turf, having been governor of the bank before. I would toe a similar path, even if I must mention that I also saw reason with the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, for moving the FAAN headquarters to Lagos.

    Sanusi may be a northern aristocrat, he is no doubt more cosmopolitan than most of the other people who are not comfortable with the decisions. Not only that, he has the experience, having once served as governor of the apex bank. As a matter of fact, he not only supported the relocations of some of those departments to Lagos, he said he would have done the same thing if he had stayed longer at the CBN governor. Hear him:  “In my mind what I would have done was to move FSS and most of Operations to Lagos such that the two Deputy Governors would be largely operating out of Lagos or, even if they were more in Abuja, the bulk of their operational staff would be in Lagos. He crowned it all by saying that “It makes eminent strategic sense. And I would have done this if I had stayed.” So, what are the critics talking about?

    Read Also: CBN battling to restore naira to its real value, says Cardoso

    It gladdens my heart that a man who is eminently qualified to speak on such a matter, a former governor of the CBN, a northerner of repute and an aristocrat of northern extraction could get that blunt in approving an issue that the prominent  Northern Elders Forum (NEF), the Northern Senators Forum (NSF), among others, have vehemently rejected.

    I am impressed with Sanusi’s candour and clarity on the matter. There was nothing like ‘on the one hand, and on the other’.  Indeed, his position is in tandem with the one-time American president, Harry Truman’s who insisted on having a one-handed economist. ”Give me a one-handed economist. All my economists say ‘on the one hand…, then ‘but on the other…” This is not the time for such ambiguity.

    As Sanusi rightly observed, ”ethnic and religious bigots will always shout” over such decision but it should not deter the CBN from forging ahead. Sanusi described the move ”as an eminently sensible move” adding ”my advice to the governor is to go ahead with his policy.

    Indeed, Sanusi said something of note that some of us knew as reason why some people are opposed to the CBN move but which we could only mention in hushed tones because of the high wire ethnic dimension that would be read into it if such sentiment had come from this part of the country. Thank God Sanusi took the heat off our zone by bursting the speaker, as it were: ” The problem we have now is that many employees (of the apex bank) are children of politically exposed persons and their Abuja life and businesses are more important than the CBN work.

    “The CBN is just an address for them and if they have to choose between their spoilt Abuja life and the job, they would gladly leave the CBN.” Would we say that Sanusi does not know what he is saying?

    This, indeed, is the main reason behind the noise. If you ask me, such people should go in peace. Neither the country nor the bank requires the services of such spoilt brats. What the CBN needs now are dedicated members of the staff who are ready to earn their pay. The country cannot be spending so much on their welfare only for them to be part-time workers in a business that requires more than 24 hours in a day!

    But, Sanusi also made some valid points that the CBN would do well to consider. The apex bank’s governor, Olayemi Cardoso, should not only take the sweet part of the pieces of advice given by the ‘expectant’ former Emir of Kano. He should ponder the not-too-sweet aspects as well. There is no doubt that Sanusi is right in his assertion that many of those who have joined critics of the decisions did so because the apex bank has not been able to find its feet, especially concerning the high exchange rate that has made nonsense of business projections, especially in recent times. This is the ‘koko’. I agree with the former CBN governor that once the CBN gets its bearing right on its core mandate, some of the noise now making the rounds will simply fizzle out.

    Although I disagree with Sanusi’s position on the capacity of the CBN office in Abuja when he said ”I don’t like the idea of arguing that the office structure cannot handle the staff numbers. I am sure Julius Berger would refute that if they wanted to engage”. The only reason I would agree with the former CBN governor on this is if he disagreed with the capacity quoted by the apex bank as the maximum the building could carry; in other words, the over 1,000 extra personnel the building is carrying does not matter? Be that as it may, we are not supposed to agree on all aspects of everything.

    Perhaps the only thing Sanusi did not say that I love to add is that we need to take it easy with people who feel aggrieved with the policy decisions rather than start calling them names or wondering why they cannot see reason despite the unassailable reasons given for the relocations in the two instances. Matters such as this are usually emotional matters in our kind of country. If anything, what Sanusi’s experience with his licensing of Jaiz Bank and the issue at hand reminds us is the mutual suspicion we still harbour about ourselves despite professing to be one Nigeria. It is only sad that the political elites are exploiting such suspicion for their personal interests while they paint the picture as if their position was informed by some national interest. 

    All said, Cardoso does not have to pander to political pressure. “My advice to the Governor is to go ahead with his policy. Once the CBN starts bending to political pressure on one thing, it will continue doing so”. I am fascinated by this latter part of the argument of Sanusi because it would seem to me that the immediate past governor of the CBN, Godwin Emefiele, began with some ‘just little sins’ when he started pandering to political pressures, until he landed in the ocean of trouble that he put the entire country eventually.

    But then, the CBN governor has to think deeply before making sensitive decisions. The job, as Sanusi said, is a thankless job. And, having taken this path, both the Federal Government and the CBN must watch out for the backlash because the affected beneficiaries of the decadent system that is being dismantled would always fight back. They had been eating corruption and it is very sweet in their mouths. To wean them off it or vice versa would take extra-vigilance on the part of both the government and the apex bank.

  • CBN battling to restore naira to its real value, says Cardoso

    CBN battling to restore naira to its real value, says Cardoso

    • ‘Currency undervalued’
    • Refineries’ take off will crash petrol prices

    Naira is seriously undervalued, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso said yesterday.

    According to him, the apex bank is putting all that is necessary into place to reverse the trend and make naira attain its real value.

    He said: “We believe that the naira is currently undervalued and coupled with coordinated measures on the fiscal side, we will expedite genuine price discovery in the near time.”

    Cardoso spoke at the unveiling of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos yesterday.

    Analysing the fuel situation, the CBN governor explained that pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) will stabilise or drop this year when public and private-owned refineries begin operation.

    The drop, he said, will have far-reaching implications on the various sectors of the economy.

    He also highlighted measures by the CBN to strengthen the Naira and crash the inflation rate from 28.92 to 21.4 per cent.

    The unification of exchange rates and floating of the naira by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu at the inception of his administration are part of the bold moves to reform the economy.

    However, this has led to a big devaluation in naira exchange to the dollar.

    “The expected stabilisation or reduction in fuel costs is poised to have far-reaching implications across various sectors, contributing significantly to overall economic efficiency and resilience”, Cardoso said.

    The report highlighted some economic outcomes of achieving a stable and appropriate pricing of the exchange rate.

    While Dangote Refinery, a private initiative has  begun production of diesel and aviation fuel, the Port Harcourt Refinery owned by the Federal Government is expected to begin production soon.

    Cardoso acknowledged the challenges facing the economy and its resistance to solutions but assured Nigerians that the nation is now at a turning point due to the bold reforms undertaken by the Bola Tinubu administration.

    He said that the CBN, Ministry of Finance and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited(NNPCL) have collaborated to ensure that all FX inflows are returned to the apex bank.

    The return of FX inflows to the CBN, according to him, has helped to boost reserves accretion and firm up the naira which as of yesterday exchanged for N1,370 to a dollar at the parallel market.

    He said: “The expected stability in the foreign exchange market for 2024 can be attributed to the reduction in petroleum product imports and the recent implementation of a market-determined exchange rate policy by the CBN.

    “This reform is designed to streamline and unify multiple exchange rates, fostering transparency and reducing arbitrage opportunities.

    “The resulting consistent and stable exchange rate will not only boost investor confidence but also attract foreign investment, elevating Nigeria’s appeal to global investors.

    “We are implementing a comprehensive strategy to improve liquidity in our FX markets in the short, medium, and long term and our focus is on addressing fundamental issues that have hindered the effective operation of our markets over the years.

    “We are already witnessing positive outcomes, and these will undoubtedly become more apparent in the near future. The dedicated and relentless efforts being made are certain to bring about significant and positive changes for our economy.

    “Recent reports from international rating agencies such as Fitch and Moody’s, and commendations from multilateral banks like the World Bank reflect this, with upgrades to Nigeria’s ratings from stable to positive. These reports acknowledge the possible reversal of the deterioration in the country’s fiscal and external position due to the authorities’ reform efforts.

    “While noting the painful adjustments, they all identify a direction of travel that will unlock the much-needed growth and development for our economy in the medium to long term.”

    Cardoso also assured Nigerians  that the rising costs of food and volatility in the forex market would soon be addressed.

    He noted the global economy is currently grappling with persistent challenges, including inflation and subdued growth prospects.

    Despite Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth outperforming expectations in 2023, it is projected to  moderate in 2024 due to tightened financial conditions, sluggish trade expansion, and reduced business and consumer confidence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a mild slowdown in global economic growth to 2.9 per cent in 2024, down from the 3.0 per cent growth observed in 2023, with Asia driving the majority of the projected global growth in 2024, similar to the previous year.

    The CBN boss said the projections for the nation’s economy paint an optimistic trajectory as the Federal Government of Nigeria anticipates real GDP growth of 3.76 per cent in 2024, slightly surpassing the estimated 3.75 per cent for 2023.

    The optimism, according to him, is underpinned by the implementation of key government reforms set to shape the economic landscape.

    Foremost among the factors contributing to this positive outlook is the expectation of improved crude oil prices and production, highlighting the crucial role the oil industry is expected to play in driving economic growth.

    Cardoso said the positive outlook for Industry, Services, Agriculture, Mining, Electricity, Gas and Water Supply sub-sectors reflects the potential effect of market-based reforms through private investment and SMEs-led growth.

    His words: “Government reforms in the mining and energy sub-sectors are expected to serve as a catalyst for growth and development. While the potential for growth exists in 2024, each sector may encounter unique challenges and opportunities.

    Read Also: JUST IN: Petrol prices to fall over refineries’ take off, says Cardoso

    “The outlook for decreasing inflation in 2024 will have a profound impact on businesses, providing a more predictable cost environment and potentially leading to lowered policy rates, stimulating investment, fueling growth, and creating job opportunities.”

    Cardoso noted that the NESG’s Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2024 emphasises the necessity of economic transformation under the central theme, “Economic Transformation Roadmap: Medium-Term Policy Priorities.”

    “This theme underscores the requirement for a clearly outlined roadmap comprising distinct yet interconnected phases and essential policy recommendations. This resonates with me as we have just last week, launched a new five-year Strategy for the CBN for the period 2024-2028 that provides a clear roadmap for achieving our mandates,” he said.

    The 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook Report was summarised by NESG’s Chief Economist Olusegun Omisakin. 

    The report advised that stabilising the exchange rate through a functional and transparent foreign exchange market entails enhancing market liquidity through regular auctions, reducing administrative restrictions, and ensuring efficient allocation of FX reserves.

    “Adopting a managed float system, regulating speculative activities, and encouraging foreign investments would bolster market confidence.

    “Besides, access to FX needs to be realigned to facilitate international trade and transactions – as such, local access needs to be to the limit of the Naira equivalent. Reinforcing monetary policies for inflation control and export diversification would promote currency stability,” the report advised.

    The NESG report explained that when exchange rates are stable, everyone is better off. Price stability supports economic growth and employment. It allows people to make more reliable plans for borrowing, saving, and expanding businesses.

    “Decreased volatility of the exchange rate helps to support stability in inflation, which mainly affects low-income households because they have fewer resources to protect themselves.

    “In the situation of price stability, it helps to maintain social cohesion and stability. History has shown that episodes of high inflation tend to be associated with social unrest,” it added.

    According to the report, increased capital inflows will fortify the nation’s external reserves, establishing a robust defence against external shocks.

    “This can only happen with the stability of the exchange rate. Capital inflows, comprising foreign investment, loans and remittances, elevate the reserve levels, bolstering Nigeria’s financial stability and economic resilience,” it said.

    The report advised that in addition to nominal enhancements in revenue, it is imperative for the country’s revenue-to-GDP ratio to reach a minimum threshold of 15 per cent to substantiate the processes of economic growth and stabilisation.

    The report partly reads: “The country must significantly decrease its current public debt service-to-revenue ratio, aiming for a reduction to less than 22 per cent from the current high of 80.2 per cent as of 2022.

    “This reduction is crucial to create fiscal space, enabling the government to reallocate funds toward economic development and stability initiatives.

    “A moderate fiscal deficit can be a useful tool for financing essential investments and stimulating economic activity.

    “Hence, the optimal level of fiscal deficit that supports economic growth and stability in Nigeria requires a careful balance.

    “A fiscal deficit of less than three per cent as stipulated in the FRA 2007 is considered appropriate for the economy.”

  • JUST IN: Petrol prices to fall over refineries’ take off, says Cardoso

    JUST IN: Petrol prices to fall over refineries’ take off, says Cardoso

    The pump prices of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) petrol will moderate this year as government and private-owned refineries begin operation, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso has said.

    He spoke on Wednesday, January 24, at the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos.

    Cardoso said the expected stabilisation or reduction in fuel costs is poised to have far-reaching implications across various sectors, contributing significantly to overall economic efficiency and resilience.

    While Dangote Refinery has already commenced production, the Port Harcourt Refinery is expected to begin production anytime from now.

     Cardoso said the apex bank, the Ministry of Finance and the NNPCL have collaborated to ensure that all FX inflows are returned to the Central Bank to boost reserves accretion.

    He described the naira, which exchanges around N1,370 to the dollar at the parallel market as undervalued.

    “We believe that the naira is currently undervalued and, coupled with coordinated measures on the fiscal side, we will expedite genuine price discovery in the near term,” he said.

     In summary of the NESG 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos, the Chief Economist at NESG, Dr. Olusegun Omisakin, listed some economic outcomes of achieving a stable and appropriate pricing of the exchange rate in Nigeria.

    The NESG report advised that stabilising the exchange rate through a functional and transparent foreign exchange market entails enhancing market liquidity through regular auctions, reducing administrative restrictions, and ensuring efficient allocation of FX reserves.

    “Adopting a managed float system, regulating speculative activities, and encouraging foreign investments would bolster market confidence. Besides, access to FX needs to be realigned to facilitate international trade and transactions – as such, local access needs to be to the limit of the Naira equivalent. Reinforcing monetary policies for inflation control and export diversification would promote currency stability,” the report advised.

    Read Also: CBN gears up for first MPC meeting under Cardoso

    Cardoso acknowledged the challenges facing the economy and the resistance to proposed solutions by various stakeholders, assuring that the economy is now at a turning point, and the bold reforms being undertaken across different segments of the economy, while initially challenging, are ultimately directed towards addressing these challenges in a sustainable manner.

    “I am confident that we are already witnessing positive outcomes, and these will undoubtedly become more apparent in the near future. The dedicated and relentless efforts being made are certain to bring about significant and positive changes for our economy.”

    “Indeed, recent reports from international rating agencies such as Fitch, Moody’s, and commendations from multilateral banks like 3 Classified as Confidential the World Bank reflect this, with upgrades to Nigeria’s ratings from stable to positive. These reports acknowledge the possible reversal of the deterioration in the country’s fiscal and external position due to the authorities’ reform efforts,” Cardoso said.

    “While noting the painful adjustments, they all identify a direction of travel that will unlock the much needed growth and development for our economy in the medium to long term.”

    He said the rising costs of food prices and volatility in the forex market will soon be addressed.

    On economic growth, he said the global economy is currently grappling with persistent challenges, including inflation and subdued growth prospects.

    Despite Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth outperforming expectations in 2023, it is projected to further moderate in 2024 due to tightened financial conditions, sluggish trade expansion, and reduced business and consumer confidence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates a mild slowdown in global economic growth to 2.9 percent in 2024, down from the 3.0 percent growth observed in 2023, with Asia driving the majority of the projected global growth in 2024, similar to the previous year.

    He said the projections for the nation’s economy paint an optimistic trajectory as the Federal Government of Nigeria anticipates real GDP growth of 3.76 percent in 2024, slightly surpassing the estimated 3.75 percent for 2023.

    The optimism, he said, was underpinned by the implementation of key government reforms set to shape the economic landscape. Foremost among the factors contributing to this positive outlook is the expectation of improved crude oil prices and production, highlighting the crucial role the oil industry is expected to play in driving economic growth.

    Cardoso said the positive outlook for Industry, Services, Agriculture, and Mining, Electricity, Gas & Water Supply sub-sectors reflects the potential effect of market-based reforms through private investment and SMEs-led growth that would contribute to business improvement and confidence.

    “Government reforms in the mining and energy sub-sectors are expected to serve as a catalyst for growth and development. 3. While the potential for growth exists in 2024, each sector may encounter unique challenges and opportunities,” he said.

    He said that inflationary pressures are expected to decline in 2024 due to the CBN’s inflation-targeting policy, which aims to rein in inflation to 21.4 percent.

    This will be aided by improved agricultural productivity and the easing of global supply chain pressures, benefiting businesses by boosting consumer confidence and purchasing power.

    He explained that the CBN’s adoption of the inflation-targeting framework involves clear communication, use of monetary policy instruments, and collaboration with fiscal authorities to achieve price stability, fostering market confidence and positively influencing consumer behaviour.

    “The outlook for decreasing inflation in 2024 will have a profound impact on businesses, providing a more predictable cost environment and potentially leading to lowered policy rates, stimulating investment, fueling growth, and creating job opportunities,” he said.

    Cardoso said the expected stability in the foreign exchange market for 2024 can be attributed to the reduction in petroleum product imports and the recent implementation of a market-determined exchange rate policy by the CBN.

    “This reform is designed to streamline and unify multiple exchange rates, fostering transparency and reducing opportunities for arbitrage. The resulting consistent and stable exchange rate will not only boost investor confidence but also attract foreign investment, elevating Nigeria’s appeal to global investors,” he said.

    Cardoso said the NESG’s Macroeconomic Outlook Report for 2024 emphasises the necessity of economic transformation under the central theme, “Economic Transformation Roadmap: Medium-Term Policy Priorities.”

    “This theme underscores the requirement for a clearly outlined roadmap comprising distinct yet interconnected phases and essential policy recommendations.  This resonates with me as we have just last week, launched a new 5-year Strategy for the Central Bank of Nigeria for the period 2024-2028 that provides a clear roadmap for achieving our mandates,” he said.

    The NESG report explained that when exchange rates are stable, everyone is better off. Price stability supports economic growth and employment. It allows people to make more reliable plans for borrowing, saving, and expanding businesses.

    “Decreased volatility of the exchange rate helps to support stability in inflation, which mainly affects low-income households because they have fewer resources to protect themselves. In the situation of price stability, it helps to maintain social cohesion and stability. History has shown that episodes of high inflation tend to be associated with social unrest,” the report.

    According to the report, increased capital inflows will fortify the nation’s external reserves, establishing a robust defence against external shocks.

    “This can only happen with the stability of the exchange rate. Capital inflows, comprising foreign investment, loans and remittances, elevate the reserve levels, bolstering Nigeria’s financial stability and economic resilience,” it said.

    The NESG report advised that in addition to nominal enhancements in revenue, the country’s revenue-to-GDP ratio must reach a minimum threshold of 15 percent to substantiate the processes of economic growth and stabilisation.

    “The country must significantly decrease its current public debt service-to revenue ratio, aiming for a reduction to less than 22 percent from the current high of 80.2 percent as of 2022. This reduction is crucial to create fiscal space, enabling the government to reallocate funds toward economic development and stability initiatives.

    “A moderate fiscal deficit can be a useful tool for financing essential investments and stimulating economic activity. Hence, the optimal level of fiscal deficit that supports economic growth and stability in Nigeria requires a careful balance. A fiscal deficit of less than three per cent as stipulated in the FRA 2007 is considered appropriate for the economy,” it said.

  • Cardoso predicts bright future for Nigerian economy

    Cardoso predicts bright future for Nigerian economy

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso has predicted a bright future for the Nigerian economy in 2024.

    Addressing the launch of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) 2024 Macroeconomic Outlook Report, Cardoso delivered a speech brimming with optimism for the coming year. His remarks focused on key issues, including exchange rate stability, inflation control, and the overall economic outlook.

    Governor Cardoso declared the naira “currently undervalued” and pledged to expedite “genuine price discovery” in collaboration with fiscal measures.

    This, he believes, will create a more balanced and stable exchange rate environment. The expected reduction in petroleum product imports and the recent implementation of a unified, market-determined exchange rate policy he said are major drivers of this stability.

    “This reform will foster transparency and reduce arbitrage opportunities,” Cardoso stated, highlighting the policy’s potential to attract foreign investment and boost investor confidence.

    Additionally, a comprehensive strategy to improve FX market liquidity in the short, medium, and long term was emphasized, with a focus on addressing fundamental issues that have hampered efficient market operation.

    Cardoso expressed satisfaction with the collaboration between the CBN, the Ministry of Finance, and the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to ensure all FX inflows are returned to the Central Bank. This, he stated, will significantly enhance reserves and FX flows.

    Read Also: February MPC meeting: Yusuf, Unegbu, others set agenda for Cardoso

    Upholding financial market integrity he noted is crucial for building confidence. The completion of an independent forensic review and clearance of valid FX transaction backlogs Cardoso stated demonstrates the Bank’s commitment to addressing market abuses.

    On the inflation front, the Governor predicted a decline in 2024, attributing it to the CBN’s inflation-targeting policy, which aims to bring inflation down to 21.4 percent.

    Improved agricultural productivity and easing global supply chain pressures were also cited as contributing factors. The adoption of the inflation-targeting framework he argued is enough reason to foster market confidence and influence consumer behaviour positively through clear communication, effective policy tools, and collaboration with fiscal authorities.

    Cardoso further highlighted the expected stabilization or reduction in fuel costs, emphasizing its potential to improve overall economic efficiency and resilience across various sectors. The combination of decreasing inflation and “a predictable cost environment” is expected to lead to lowered policy rates, ultimately stimulating investment, fueling growth, and creating job opportunities.

    Mr. Cardoso reiterated the CBN’s commitment to a conventional monetary policy approach that prioritizes price stability as the foundation for sustainable economic growth. This focus on stability, transparency, and fostering a dynamic market environment was presented as the cornerstone of the CBN’s vision for a prosperous Nigerian economy in 2024 and beyond.

    The CBN Governor disclosed that last week, the Bank launched a new five-year Strategy for the period 2024-2028 that provides a clear roadmap for achieving its mandates.

    These Mandates he said are anchored on: Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness; Robust and Resilient Financial System and Governance, Compliance, and Advisory to the government

    These he said will “form the pillars around which all our actions and activities will revolve, enabling us to deliver on our mission to ensure monetary, price and financial system stability as a catalyst for inclusive growth and sustainable economic development”.

    According to him, “The work has already started, internally within the Bank and across the banking industry, and we are committed to rebuilding an institution that is trusted and respected and promoting confidence in the economy”.

  • February MPC meeting: Yusuf, Unegbu, others set agenda for Cardoso

    February MPC meeting: Yusuf, Unegbu, others set agenda for Cardoso

    Ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting scheduled to hold later in February, some economic experts have impressed on the governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Dr. Olayemi Cardoso on the need to come up with concrete policies to stimulate socioeconomic growth and development of the country.

    Cardoso, who was appointed last October by President Bola Tinubu, is expected to hold the first MPC meeting under his watch in February.

    While setting the agenda for the MPC meeting, Dr Muda Yusuf, renowned economist said what should be on the agenda should be the current macroeconomic challenges facing the country even as he advised that the apex bank should see how monetary policy can also contribute to improving the macroeconomic situation.

    Yusuf, a former president of the Lagos Chamber of Commerce (LCCI) and Director, Centre for Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said, “The number issue that it should look at is inflation. We have seen a lot of staking of monetary policies in the last few years yet inflation has not come down. So, we don’t know whether they have new ideas as to how they want to tackle inflation.

    “Then, what would be their contribution to the issue of economic growth and job creation because when you talk about economic growth, monetary policy also has a role to play, especially in the area of financing of affordable credit, long-term credit. There is a need to look at financing generally to improve growth.

    “There is a need to know what would be their strategy to tackle that, just as we would like to know what is their strategy for financial inclusion. What is their strategy to stabilise the exchange rate? So, these are the expectations generally from the business community so that we see exactly what they want to do so that businesses can also have an idea of the direction that the administration is going as far as monetary policy is concerned.” 

    Echoing similar sentiments, Mazi Okechukwu Unegbu, who is currently Managing Director/Chief Executive, Maxifund Investments and Securities Plc, who noted that Cardoso may have finally settled down now having understudied the system, said “he should come up with policies that would reduce inflation in the system because it is getting up to almost 30 percent and it’s not good for the economy. So, he should think of policies that he can bring to help in controlling inflation.”

    Unegbu, who boasts of an over 30 years career in banking and finance, also advised the MPC team to examine the interest rate on savings and loans.

    “The interest on savings and loans are not good enough. So, the MPC should look at it and see what the problem is. Particularly, the CBN has to look at the exchange rate. I think we must start thinking of the cooperation between the CBN, the Ministry of Finance and the NNPCL. For instance if the NNPCL is selling crude and is the money coming in or not? So, these are questions we need to ask. If they can be able to answer some of these questions, then our crude money is coming in and it will help to boost the exchange rate.”

    In the view of Peter Sunday Adebola, the Managing Director, Edgefield Capital Management Limited, an investment-driven firm, the MPC meeting needs to consider a raft of policy intervention for the benefit of the economy.

    “If my memory serves me right, the last MPC meeting that was held was six month ago in July during the time that the Acting CBN governor was there, Folashodun Shonubi. Since then we have not had any MPC till now,” he recalled.

    Judging by the situation of the economy currently, the inflation rate is soaring to 28.93 percent and the exchange rate is also going up, he said.

    “Right now, the naira is exchanging for about N1, 314 to the dollar. When you look at these things, you will see that the government needs to do more tightening. So, there is a need for more tightening for the economy. But they have to look at the economy in various dimensions.

    Read Also: Adeleke’s sacking of 1,500 teachers increased out-of-school children in Osun, says Oyetola

    “Since Cardoso came he has tried to look at how he can create a balance in the foreign exchange market so as to stabilise the naira. But we discover that all the measures he has taken have not been able to stabilise the exchange rate. What we have seen is that once the naira stabilises for a minimum of three days to a maximum of one week, you see the naira depreciating further.

    “The question is if they now tighten the economy, will that address the situation? The answer may be no because if they tighten the economy the more by increasing the interest rate, yes, theoretically, we normally say that when the interest rate is increased, it is going to encourage savings so that it will reduce the money in circulation. But that’s traditional economies, I think, our own economic situation has gone beyond that. If you increase the interest rate now, that is going to increase the cost of funds and if that happens we are still going to increase the inflation rate further, and invariably it is the final consumer that is going to bear the brunt.

    “So, the CBN needs to consider that if they want to tighten. If they choose to maintain the status quo, then what we are going to have is a situation whereby all these monies in circulation, if not tightened, is not going to encourage people that have money to put their monies in fixed income securities.”

    Corroborating the views of Yusuf and Unegbu, Adebowale Wasiu, a stock analyst, also suggested a raft of policy interventions, which according to him will  “halt the free fall of the naira even against much less contending currencies within the West African subregion just as the naira can hedge against the almighty dollar!”

    Wasiu said the government should make a deliberate policy to stop the importation of certain goods from countries like the USA, parts of Europe and even Middle East Asia. “I’m talking about such goods from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like spare parts, toothpicks, and rice.”

    The local tender has had a run of bad luck lately as pressure mounts on the naira. Checks by The Nation revealed that the US dollar exchanges for ₦1,323.630 to the naira, British pound ₦1,652.0511, while euro goes for N1,412.0091 and the Canadian dollar exchanges for ₦981.293 to the naira.

  • CBN gears up for first MPC meeting under Cardoso

    CBN gears up for first MPC meeting under Cardoso

    The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is preparing for the inaugural Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting under the leadership of its new Governor, Olayemi Cardoso.

    The MPC meeting will be held in Abuja on Monday, February 26 and Tuesday, February 27, 2024.

    To ensure a smooth transition and address key challenges, the CBN has hosted a two-day strategic session in Abuja for MPC members.

    Acting Director Corporate Communications of the CBN, Mrs Hakama Sidi-Ali in a statement announcing the scheduled meeting said the retreat provided a platform for MPC members to engage in in-depth discussions about the committee’s objectives and current economic landscape. This facilitated brainstorming and strategizing for future policy decisions.

    Read Also: Toyin Abraham takes action against movie leaks

    A critical focus area of the retreat was on improving the monetary policy transmission mechanism. This crucial tool aims to translate policy decisions into tangible effects on the real economy, such as influencing inflation and growth. By deliberating on potential amendments and optimizations, the MPC seeks to enhance the effectiveness of its policies.

    To enrich the discussions, the retreat sessions Sidi Ali said were facilitated by a diverse group of experienced individuals. Former MPC members, monetary policy communication specialists from the IMF, and Directors of key CBN departments all contributed their expertise, offering valuable insights and perspectives.

    Sidi Ali, emphasized the importance of the retreat, stating that the “valuable insights gained from these discussions will significantly contribute towards the robustness of the forthcoming MPC meetings.” This proactive approach underscores the CBN’s commitment to effective policy making and a successful transition under Governor Cardoso.

    Additionally, the CBN website has published a calendar for 2024, outlining subsequent MPC meetings throughout the year. The meetings have been scheduled for February, March, May, July, September and November 2024.

    This is to allow stakeholders anticipate policy developments and plan accordingly.

  • Cardoso: poor naira redesign policy cause of cash scarcity

    Cardoso: poor naira redesign policy cause of cash scarcity

    • ‘N3.4tr in circulation’

    Critical flaw in the implementation of the naira redesign policy is responsible for the prevailing cash scarcity, Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Yemi Cardoso, said yesterday.

    Cardoso acknowledged the “glaring defects” in various CBN policies and announced a comprehensive review initiative.

    “We are taking a thorough look at all our policies implemented over time. This review aims to produce an elegant document outlining clear rules and procedures for navigating the Nigerian money market”, Cardoso told the audience at the launch of the World Bank Nigeria Development Update in Abuja.

    Addressing the cash crunch plaguing Nigerians, Cardoso identified the poorly executed naira redesign as the primary culprit.

    The apex bank boss said: “The apprehension surrounding the policy’s end date, well before the third quarter, triggered widespread hoarding. Many feared the old notes would lose legal tender status, prompting them to hold onto their cash.

    Offering a glimmer of hope, the CBN governor said the Supreme Court’s recent ruling, upholding the validity of the old notes beyond the initial deadline, will alleviate apprehensions and incentivize individuals to release their hoarded cash into circulation.

    On the current naira scarcity, Cardoso said: “Unfortunately, the history of that lies with the naira redesign policy and coming to the end of the year, way before the third quarter, there was a lot of apprehension with respect to where this was all going to end; and whether the old currency would no longer be good for legal tender and many started hoardings. This is really what happened.  Happily, Supreme Court has decided that the currency will be valid post-end of the year.”

    N3.4tr in circulation

    Also yesterday, the CBN put the amount of cash in circulation at N3.4 trillion.

    In a statement by its Acting Director, Corporate Communications, Mrs. Hakama Sidi-Ali, the apex bank said: “There is indeed an increase in currency in circulation. From N1 trillion in February 2023, we have seen a rise to over N3.4 trillion as of December 11, 2023. This demonstrates that enough cash is available, but unfortunately, it’s not circulating due to apprehension among some individuals.”

    Acknowledging the challenges Nigerians have faced with previous and current cash shortages, Sidi-Ali emphasized the bank’s commitment to addressing the issue.

    She said: “We empathize with the recent and past experiences of Nigerians. The CBN assures everyone that we have adequate cash to meet daily transaction needs, even during the upcoming festive season.”

    She attributed the cash crunch to “hoarding of the naira by some persons due to challenges experienced during the naira redesign project.

    Read Also: Naira Scarcity: Cardoso blames redesign policy, pledges policy overhaul

    “The CBN was monitoring the situation and had released sufficient cash to its branches across the country for onward distribution to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs).”

    Sidi-Ali urged Nigerians to exercise patience while the CBN implements measures to ensure wider cash availability.

    This includes ongoing efforts to improve cash distribution channels and address logistical challenges.

    The CBN’s response aims to quell anxieties about potential cash shortages during the busy holiday period.

    But, Point of Sale (PoS) operators in Abuja, have devised a method of sourcing for cash.

    They now go to the market to buy cash from traders while they transfer the agreed sum into the traders’ bank accounts.

    The operators have demonstrated the willingness to transfer any additional cost they may incur from the new approach to make cash available to their clients.

    Other measures being taken by the CBN to combat hoarding and improve cash distribution, include the discontinuation of processing fee charges on deposits, to encourage the public to save the cash in their possession.

    The CBN is now caught in a delicate balance between addressing currency security concerns and ensuring adequate cash availability for daily transactions.

    The apex bank has been battling to address both points as well as trying to build trust in the Nigerian financial system.

    Cardoso’s candid acknowledgement of the naira redesign misstep and his commitment to policy reform mark a significant shift in the CBN’s approach.

    The planned review and the promise of clearer rules signify a willingness to address past shortcomings and chart a more effective course for managing the nation’s monetary system.

  • Naira Scarcity: Cardoso blames redesign policy, pledges policy overhaul

    Naira Scarcity: Cardoso blames redesign policy, pledges policy overhaul

    The governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Yemi Cardoso, has admitted a critical flaw in the recent naira redesign policy, attributing the ongoing cash scarcity to its “bad implementation” of the policy. 

    He made this known on Wednesday, December 13, during the launch of the World Bank Nigeria Development Update. 

    Cardoso said the “glaring defects” in various CBN policies and announced a comprehensive review initiative. 

    He said: “We are taking a thorough look at all our policies implemented over time,” he stated. This review, he explained, aims to produce “an elegant document” outlining clear rules and procedures for navigating the Nigerian money market.

    Addressing the cash crunch plaguing Nigerians, Cardoso identified the poorly executed naira redesign as the primary culprit. 

    He said: “The apprehension surrounding the policy’s end date, well before the third quarter, triggered widespread hoarding,” he admitted. Many feared the old notes would lose legal tender status, prompting them to hold onto their cash.”

    However, Cardoso offered a glimmer of hope, citing the Supreme Court’s recent ruling upholding the validity of the old notes beyond the initial deadline. This, he noted, should help alleviate apprehensions and incentivize individuals to release their hoarded cash into circulation.

    On the current naira scarcity, Cardoso said: “unfortunately, the history of that lies with the naira redesign policy and coming to the end of the year, way before the third quarter, there was a lot of apprehension with respect to where this was all going to end; and whether the old currency would no longer be good for legal tender and many started hoardings. This is really what happened.  Happily, Supreme Court has decided that the currency will be valid post-end of the year.”

    In a related development, the CBN disclosed that there is N3.4 trillion cash in circulation in the country.

    Acting Director Corporate Communications of the CBN Mrs Hakama Sidi-Ali made this disclosure in a statement issued in Abuja yesterday.

    Read Also: ‘How naira scarcity affected manufacturers’

    According to Sidi-Ali, “there is indeed an increase in currency in circulation. From N1 trillion in February 2023, we have seen a rise to over N3.4 trillion as of December 11, 2023. This demonstrates that enough cash is available, but unfortunately, it’s not circulating due to apprehension among some individuals.”

    Acknowledging the challenges Nigerians have faced with previous and current cash shortages, Sidi-Ali emphasized the CBN’s commitment to addressing the issue. “We empathize with the recent and past experiences of Nigerians. The CBN assures everyone that we have adequate cash to meet daily transaction needs, even during the upcoming festive season” she stated.

    Speaking to the current cash crunch Sidi-Ali attributed the current situation to “the hoarding of the Naira by some persons due to challenges experienced during the Naira redesign project”.

    She noted that “the CBN was monitoring the situation and had released sufficient cash to its branches across the country for onward distribution to Deposit Money Banks (DMBs)”.

    Ali urged Nigerians to exercise patience while the CBN implements measures to ensure wider cash availability. This includes ongoing efforts to improve cash distribution channels and address logistical challenges.

    The CBN’s response aims to quell anxieties about potential cash shortages during the busy holiday period. 

    However, Point of Sale (PoS) operators in Abuja have devised a method of sourcing for cash. They now go to the markets tobuy cash from traders while they transfer the agreed sum into the traders bank accounts. Some PoS operators are warming up to transfer any additional cost they may incur from the new approach to cash to their clients.

    Other measures being taken by the CBN to combat hoarding and improve cash distribution include the discontinuation of processing fees charges on deposits to encourage the public to save the cash in their possession.

    The CBN is now caught in a delicate balance between addressing currency security concerns and ensuring adequate cash availability for daily transactions. The CBN has been battling to address both points as well as trying to build trust in the Nigerian financial system.

    Cardoso’s candid acknowledgement of the naira redesign misstep and his commitment to policy reform mark a significant shift in the CBN’s approach. The planned review and the promise of clearer rules signify a willingness to address past shortcomings and chart a more effective course for managing the nation’s monetary system.

    The success of this endeavor hinges on transparency and inclusivity. Engaging stakeholders across the financial sector and ensuring clear communication with the public will be crucial in restoring trust and building a sustainable system that serves the needs of all Nigerians.

    While anxieties persist about the immediate cash shortage, Cardoso’s admission and pledge to reform offer a ray of hope for the future of Nigeria’s monetary policy. The coming months will be critical in evaluating the effectiveness of the planned review and the CBN’s ability to translate its promises into tangible improvements for the Nigerian economy.

  • Interrogating Cardoso’s monetary policy planks (1)

    Interrogating Cardoso’s monetary policy planks (1)

    • By Tiko Okoye

    Last week Friday, the metaphorical new kid in the CBN block, Governor Olayemi Cardoso, made his long-awaited and highly-anticipated grand entry with a first-time address to the nation. My intention – in a three-part article – is to robustly interrogate key planks of the monetary policy direction enunciated by Cardoso.

    I commence the first in the series with why and how he should set about his seemingly Sisyphean task of remedying the unbridled abuse and misuse of the Ways and Means advances indulged in by his predecessor, Godwin Emefiele, if he’s to stand the slimmest chance of deploying the right doses of monetary policy to resuscitate the comatose national economy.

    Let me start by unequivocally declaring that Cardoso’s job is clearly cut out for him. Although part and parcel of the federal government, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Act 2007 gives the institution considerable autonomy to formulate and implement monetary policy approach that should preferably be complementary to the government’s fiscal policy thrust. The governor and deputy governors have a guaranteed tenure as they can’t be removed from office except by a ‘yes’ vote of two-thirds of the Senate. This is designed to protect them from being beholden to partisan politics in discharging their responsibilities.

    Which is why it beggars belief that Emefiele acted as if being a poodle too willing to do whatever members of the Aso Villa mafioso directs him to do was the most effective way to preserve the autonomy of the apex bank as enshrined in the Act, except, perhaps, he was being traumatised by vivid recollections of how the Senate practically went AWOL as then-President Goodluck Jonathan put his predecessor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi to the sword.

    One significant area Emefiele’s top management team literally took their eyes off the ball was the Ways and Means advances. This is an instrument provided under the CBN Act (Section 38) to grant short-term time loans to the federal government as part of its core mandate of acting as banker and financial adviser to the government. The advances are meant to cover shortfalls in budgeted revenues “at such interest rate as the CBN may determine.”

    Majority of Nigerians having a foreboding feeling that the national economy is set to suddenly suffer a Humpty-Dumpty implosion as a result of an unsustainable debt overhang are spot-on. To more graphically contextualize the gaping canyon Emefiele and his team, including deputy governors and directors of various departments – have pushed this nation into, let us now consider the state of Nigeria’s indebtedness, which I’m too sure all those huffing and puffing to be President are actually ignorant of else they would be sprinting away for integrity sake in the opposite direction!

    In the course of delivering his speech on the projected N27.5 trillion budget for 2024, President Bola Tinubu, GCFR disclosed that N9.92 trillion is for non-debt recurrent expenditure, capital expenditure is N9.7 trillion while debt service is projected to be as much as N8.25 trillion. President Tinubu further revealed that the projected debt service alone is 45% of the expected total revenue and that the extrapolated budget deficit at the end of December is N13.78 trillion or 6.11% of the GDP. Since the budget deficit is projected at N9.18 trillion in 2024 which require new borrowings, the total government is expected to increase, albeit at a diminishing rate.

    Before the president’s budget speech, the Debt Management Office (DMO) had announced that the summation of public debt owed by the Federal Government, State Governments and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) amounted to N44.06 trillion as at the end of the third quarter (3Q) of 2022, with domestic debt at N26.92 trillion and external debt at N17.14 trillion.

    But both the president’s figure and that of the DMO only tell half the story! Not taken cognisance of is the whopping amount of N23.8 trillion ‘lent’ by the apex bank under its Ways and Means advances to the federal government! According to an incisive essay on the subject by one Funmilayo Odude, Partner, Commercial and Energy Law Practice (CANDELP), the two key underlying principles of Ways and Means advances as expressly stated under the CBN Act are its temporary nature and the cap placed on the amount the federal government can access within a specified time period.

    The amount and tenure of the Ways and Means advances granted by the apex bank to the government are not arbitrary. First, the maximum amount that can be granted to the government at any time is 5% of the previous year’s actual government revenue. Second, the loans must be repaid before/by the end of the financial year in which they were disbursed – which is December 31. The Act bars the CBN from extending further advances until full repayment is made by the government.

    The greatest irony was that the apex bank kept dishing out tight monetary policies that were ostensibly designed to mop up an ‘excess liquidity’ in the system and checkmate inflation. But nothing seemed to have worked despite all the draconian measures the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept conjuring up. Truth’s that nothing was bound to work because just as the CBN was mopping up so-called excess liquidity with the right hand, it continued to grant Ways and Means advances to the government with the left hand without any let up!

    Read Also: Cardoso lays out policy directions

    An investigative report conducted by Premium Times indicated that CBN’s Ways and Means advances to the Federal Government increased by 2,900% in the last seven years of the Buhari administration! Emefiele and his team literally threw caution to the wind as, contrary to its contingency nature, the Ways and Means advances transformed into a permanent source of deficit financing. Again, they not only continued to grant advances to the government while the previous ones hadn’t been paid off, but kept disbursing amounts far in excess of the specified 5% ceiling.

    For example, the CBN under Emefiele disbursed Ways and Means advances amounting to N2.5 trillion within the fist six months of 2022, while the government’s actual revenue in 2021 was N5.4 trillion – about 50% as compared with the statutory 5%! It would also be interesting to ascertain whether the CBN was actually charging the government any interest on the advances as demanded by the Act.

    The National Assembly pushed back when the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning in the Buhari administration, Zainab Ahmed, sought its approval in December 2022 to restructure the outstanding balance of N23.8 trillion into trade-able securities – and very rightly so. The illegality of the borrowing cannot be legitimized by converting the outstanding loans to trade-able securities as it would amount to a despicable form of money laundering. 

    Still, Emefiele shouldn’t bear the brunt of the perfidious act alone. The Senate and House of Representatives Banking and Finance Committees with oversight responsibility over the CBN have been ball-watching for so long. The effectiveness of an oversight function is directly correlated with the capacity of those involved. The Senate President and House Speaker must therefore ensure that they place round pegs to oversee round holes and not just haphazardly appoint daft cronies in furtherance of a reward system that fosters a “garbage in, garbage out” syndrome.

    And without prejudice to the cases Emefiele is currently facing in the Court, the National Assembly must commence an all-embracing investigation into the arbitrariness and impunity with which guardrail provisions pertaining to Ways and Means advances were subjected to ended up ruining the economy, and all guilty parties must be brought to book.  

    Cardoso has fortunately announced his intention to toe a different path. Rather than the abused and misused Ways and Means advances, he has pledged to majorly rely on Open Market Operations (OMO) which represents a far more professional and transparent route. President Tinubu has also declared the commitment of his administration to grow a $1 trillion economy over the next few years. All hands must be on deck to see this happen so we can clear all outstanding domestic and foreign debts and restart on a clean slate.

    And the Cardoso I’ve known since our days at Chase/Continental Merchant Bank in the mid-80s is very independent-minded and perspicacious and won’t fail Nigerians.

  • Cardoso lays out policy directions

    Cardoso lays out policy directions

    Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Dr. Olayemi Cardoso will this weekend examine the macroeconomic direction and outlook for the Nigerian economy, a major event expected to provide guidance to key decision-makers.

    Cardoso will address bankers and other public and private sector stakeholders at the Annual Bankers Dinner of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria (CIBN) on Friday, at Eko Hotels & Suites, Victoria Island, Lagos.

    Christened ‘’The Governors Day’’, the event provides the CBN Governor the opportunity to address stakeholders on the economic and financial markets development during the year as well as the economic outlook for the coming year.

    The CIBN will also hold the grand finale of its 60th anniversary celebration, underscoring six decades of its commitment to professionalism, integrity, innovation and ethics in the banking and finance industry.

    Read Also: CBN will prioritise core mandate of price stability, Cardoso says

    The dinner and 60th anniversary celebration is expected to draw assembly of over 500 leaders from the banking industry, influential business leaders, and senior government officials.

    Vice President, Federal Republic of Nigeria, Senator Kashim Shettima, and Governor, Lagos State, Mr. Babatunde Sanwo-Olu are expected to deliver the goodwill messages while Dr. Ken Opara, President of CIBN will give the welcome address.

    The 60th grand finale of the CIBN will draw to a close at the dinner.

    CIBN stated that the remarkable journey that it has undertaken over the six decades was a testament to the resilience, dedication, and vision of the banking community in Nigeria.

    “The institute looks forward to years filled with inspiration, collaboration, and focus on the future,” CIBN stated.