Since 219 schoolgirls from Government Secondary School, Chibok, Borno State were abducted by Boko Haram insurgents in April 2014, no government statement has so far hinted of a closure to the crime. The government of Goodluck Jonathan hemmed and hawed over the matter, and even doubted whether the abductions took place at all, or whether it was not a political strategy to discredit the former president. When the government seemed eventually convinced sometime that same year that a horrible crime had taken place, it had no strategy or actionable intelligence to do anything about it. Right up to the general elections, the Jonathan government simply engaged in handwringing and desultory ‘negotiations’ with the insurgents or those claiming to be their representatives. Unsure who represented Boko Haram and who did not, the Jonathan government vacillated between negotiating one day and using force another day in the face of its inexpertness and incompetence to do either.
The succeeding government of Muhammadu Buhari inherited the nuisance with a promise to knock the problem into a cocked hat shortly after assuming office. Nearly one year after, however, no one in the Buhari government, nor the president himself, has acknowledged it knows where the girls are, let alone produce a plan to rescue them. Perhaps it was neither politic nor tactical to admit knowledge of the girls’ whereabouts, not to talk of planning a rescue. Whatever the situation is, the country has been wearied by the plight of the teenage girls whom many rumoured had either been married off or abused. It is significant, however, that none among the hundreds of women rescued by the army, as the counterinsurgency operations progressed, confessed a definitive knowledge of where the girls were or what had happened to them. There were a few rumours and titbits, but nothing substantial or significant came from anyone.
In fact, at a point in recent months, it seemed the Buhari government was at a loss what to do. This indefensible quandary was compounded recently by ex-president Olusegun Obasanjo’s insensitive outburst suggesting that the girls were gone for good, adding that anyone who said he knew where they were was being untruthful. A former British envoy to Nigeria had inflamed emotions when he suggested that Western powers once had actionable intelligence on where the girls were kept and the brutal exploitation they were subjected to. No rescue was attempted, said the envoy, because the girls were scattered in different places and their lives would be at risk once an operation got underway. The depressing statements all round and the confusion and helplessness paralysing the presidency had combined to infuse a sense of hopelessness in everyone, within and outside the country.
But mid last week, Boko Haram released a video of indeterminate origin and date showing a few of the girls and suggesting that ransom and negotiation could bring a closure to the crisis. The video renewed hope in Chibok and elsewhere that the girls were in fine fettle and could perhaps be brought home after all. Though counterinsurgency operations have been intensified, it is not clear whether pressures by the military are enough to make the insurgents simply abandon their captives and flee. Nor is it obvious that given the way it has spoken with renewed optimism the Buhari presidency would not be minded to negotiate for the girls’ freedom.
What is clear, however, is that the government’s options are indeed very limited. The president will have to make up his mind exactly what to do. If he chooses to fight his way through to the girls, as one army commander has suggested, he will stand the risk of getting some of the girls killed. If he prefers to negotiate with the insurgents, Boko Haram will exact a terrible price. The government’s elbow room is severely constricted. Its priority is to rescue the girls alive, however that is done. And its best option may be to negotiate, for no price can be put on the girls’ lives. After two years in captivity, the government cannot afford to botch the rescue effort, especially given the fact that Boko Haram, groaning under military pressure, appears ready to concede ground.
President Buhari should go ahead and negotiate. More, he must approach the matter with great urgency and avoid a long-drawn discussion. He will be fortunate indeed if all the girls are in one piece, and if actually the insurgents will acknowledge that 219 schoolgirls were delivered to them. There will be a few sticky points about how many girls are involved, and if they are fewer than that number, what happened to the rest. In case the number is disputed, the government will be wary of leaving any of the girls behind. But it is clear that the insurgents always knew all along that in the girls they had a joker in their hands which they intended right from the beginning to play dexterously. This was probably why they have kept the girls in fairly uncontroversial conditions. Nigeria was lax in allowing the girls to be abducted, and laxer still in not pursuing the abductors immediately the crime was committed. The country must now pay a terrible price to get them freed, and worry about the consequences later.
