Farmers have resorted to the old days of traditional weather prediction because of lack of modern meteorological services .But, how effective is this, given the new technology involved in farming and the government’s wish to revolutionalise agriculture? DANIEL ESSIET writes.
Long before the advent of modern technology, traditional farmers had devised means of predicting weather conditions, especially as it may affect their farm year.This understanding, primitive as it may seem, is believed to have worked effectively for them.
For instance, high temperature at night is a sign for good rains and a long crop growing season, while low temperatures at night is an indication for late onset of rains and late planting season. To the traditional farmer,appearance of dark cloud is an indicator for good rains coming within a few hours. Where the cloud appearance is related to the coming of rains, also this traditional climate indicator could be kept to be related to scientific reasoning.
The hope is that by drawing from both indigenous knowledge and contemporary weather forecasting techniques, crop yields could be increased.
Using traditional indicators ,farmers also profit from weather forecasts provided by governmental institutions. This enable them make sound decisions on how to fully exploit the seasonal distribution of rainfall to improve and stabilise crop yields. The indicators cited included wind direction, cuckoo calls, and the timing of winged termites’ departure from their nests.
Farmers also observe bird migrations and other animal behaviour in their forecasts.
As meteorologists are coming to terms with to the concept of traditional forecasting methods in adapting to climate change, it seems climate change itself poses a threat to the sustainability of these methods. Mallam Usman Dahiru (Not real name), a septuagenerain has farmed for over five decades. From knowledge transferred over generations, Dahiru and other farmers are able to monitor the wind, clouds and other signals to predict the weather and improve agricultural practices.
Based on observations, he is able to delay planting of crops. This is hinged on his personal forecast of the timing and volume of rains. For him and other traditional farmers, certain signs are expected in the skies for them to plant their most important crops.
In most situations, dependent on the vagaries of weather makes farmers helpless in determining the volume of farm yield to expect. This is exemplified by the seasonal rainfall distribution, shift of rainfall onset and cessation and occurrence of other extreme weather/climate events.
Traditionally, farmers,every where across the country see planting determined by climate and crop requirements. This also depends on the location, temperature and rainfall.
But making forecasts available to small farmers is constrained by scale, procedural and institutional barriers, and available choices.
Farmers complain they are not specifically taken care off by forecasts provided by the National Meteorological Service.
This is because the service does not provide enough coverage to reach every part of the country.
Consequently, farmers in remote areas rely on traditional weather-related indicators to make choices on their farming activities.
Deputy National President, Administration and Operations, All Farmers Association of Nigeria(AFAN), Prince Ike Ubaka said seasonal prediction using indigenous knowledge is common place, boosted by increasing knowledge of local weather, crop suitability, selection and planting schedule in a particular season.
On the whole, farmers use indigenous knowledge to determine when and what to plant and interpret indicators within the environment. As largely, rural farmers are affected by climate change.
In line with this, Ubaka said there is a need for the nation’s weather service to work with farmers to explore indigenous knowledge to protect farming communities from extreme weather in view of its limitations.
This, he said, is important as Nigeria experience all forms of climate change impacts, including droughts and frequent flooding.
The need intensifies as it has been confirmed that there will be tremendous climatic change impacts in the approaching months, in most areas of the country that could threaten the availability of water for agriculture
Ubaka maintained that indigenous knowledge can be combined with scientific methods to enable farming populations adapt to climate change, through the development of early warning systems and new planting techniques resilience to weather.
Researchers, he noted, need to create a process that integrates science and indigenous knowledge to improve the adaptive capacity of farmers. This is because projects linking scientific and indigenous knowledge have reduced the vulnerability of farmers by developing pest- and disease-resistant crop varieties, promoting genetic diversity, and establishing timely responses to natural disasters through local seed production and distribution.
In support of his views, there are increasing number of stakeholders seeking partnership between traditional and modern science to produce weather forecasts better suited to farmers.
Consequently, stakeholders want researchers to share information with farming communities to help create mitigation and adaptation strategies, and to encourage alternative practices.
Speaking with The Nation, the President, Lagos State Apex Fadama Community Association, Alhaji Mufutau Abiodun Oyelekan said farmers are now making valuable judgments based on observation of natural phenomena.
This, he maintained, was acquired from indigenous knowledge of weather patterns.
The knowledge, is based on environmental indicators based on experience and can be learned by anyone who listens to elders.
Generally, he said elderly farmers know more than younger farmers like him but expressed concern that indigenous knowledge is at risk of disappearing because fewer people are learning it, and its value for environmental science is not widely recognised.
Canvassing the need to promote indigenous knowledge along with modern weather forecasting applications, Oyelekan said most farmers were not familiar with the application of weather forecasts/climate predictions for agricultural production, or with other science-based agro meteorological products.
So they rely on their experience and traditional knowledge for farming decision making. The indicators for traditional knowledge are demonstrated here in broad terms, relying on the stories and indications from observations and years of experience of their use by the farmers. These means of engagement with the natural environment, he maintained, are skills not well understood by most scientists, but useful to the farmers.
They range from the constellation of stars, animal behavior, cloud cover and type, blossoming of certain indigenous trees, appearance and disappearance of reptiles, to migration of bird species and many others. Traditional knowledge, he added , hold the ace over modern weather forecast in some areas because it is the knowledge of a group or a community from a particular area, based on their environmental understanding, interacting with nature and experiences within their areas.
Though traditional weather forecasting may not be largely successful, he suggested that some short-term traditional forecasts/predictions could be merged with science-based climate predictions.
Speaking with The Nation, The Director, Research Operations Department ,National Cereals Research Institute (NCRI) Badeggi, Niger State, Dr Myimaorga Emmanuel Abo said long before the initiation of modern scientific methods for weather forecasting and climate prediction, farmers utilised indigenous knowledge in deciding on crop variety, planting dates, and other coping strategies, so as to produce good yields.
According to him, traditional weather/climate knowledge is being used by farmers in the Northern part of the country.
He said there are natural indicators in indigenous knowledge that are used by farmers to forecast weather phenomena, predict seasonal climate behaviour, and use them in their decisions on agricultural activities.
Abo said scientists and local traditional farmers use different methods to forecast weather conditions and predict a likely behavior of climate in the planting season.
While agrometeorologists have, developed different types of science-based knowledge, to better cope with climate variability, operationally, this leaves for farmers much to be desired.
According to him, adaptation to increasing climate variability and to other consequences is essential to minimize consequences of new risks and therefore, introducing agrometeorological products to farmers creates a platform for the on-farm development of a new range of different adaptation strategies for different agricultural enterprises, tailor-made.
Right now, the major challenge for the researchers is how to combine indigenous knowledge and science-based products, and to actually train the farmers in interpreting and using the latter. Farmers regularly experience devastating disasters that are weather and climate related, such as rainfall scarcity and irregularity, floods, untimely frost events, severe winds that also continue and intensify destructive wildfires, outbreaks of diseases and pests, difficult to control weeds, which require intensive labor, as well as severe drought conditions and overgrazed lands posing dangers of desertification. The participating farmers realized from slowly improving yields that science-based early warnings, weather/climate related forecasts/predictions and other science-based agro meteorological advisories/services are able to protect farmers better than their traditional knowledge could, by new knowledge-based preparedness and decision making.
For now, integration of agro meteorological products with local knowledge on weather forecasting and climate prediction may improve adaptation strategies and ensure that new knowledge, products, and services are implemented at farm level.
