Tag: Crude oil

Nigeria’s upstream oil sector is witnessing a dramatic turnaround, with crude oil losses from theft and metering issues dropping to their lowest levels in nearly 16 years. In July 2025, daily losses stood at 9,600 barrels per day (bpd), the lowest figure since 2009 when losses dropped to all-time low of 8,500 bpd.

This is based on trends of crude oil losses year-to-date July 2025, released by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). This progress marks a major leap forward in the Commission’s relentless drive to eliminate all forms of crude losses across Nigeria’s oilfields and pipelines.

According to the report, between January and July 2025, crude oil losses were contained at 2.04 million barrels, averaging 9,600 barrels per day over the seven-month period. This marks a clear departure from the high-loss years that have long plagued the industry.

By comparison, the entire 2024 calendar year recorded 4.1 million barrels loss at a daily average of 11,300 barrels. Remarkably, in just the first seven months of 2025, losses were cut by 50.2 per cent, with only 2.04 million barrels lost over the period.

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The figures for the period ending July 2025 also represent a dramatic 94.57per cent drop in crude oil losses compared to the full year of 2021, when Nigeria lost 37.6 million barrels at a daily average of 102,900 barrels.

So far in 2025, only 2.04 million barrels have been lost, which is a reduction of 35.56 million barrels compared to the 37.6 million barrels lost in 2021, underscoring the scale of progress made in four years.

Crude oil losses in 2021 were the highest recorded in nearly 23 years, making it the peak year between 2002 and July 2025.

Since the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act in 2021, Nigeria has recorded steady progress in reducing crude oil losses. In 2021, losses stood at 37.6 million barrels, averaging 102,900 barrels per day. By 2022, this dropped to 20.9 million barrels at a daily average of 57,200 barrels.

The downward trend continued in 2023, with losses reduced to 4.3 million barrels at 11,900 barrels per day. Even more progress was made in 2024, as losses were further contained to 4.1 million barrels, averaging 11,300 barrels per day.

The statement noted that the NUPRC has adopted a balanced mix of kinetic and non-kinetic strategies in tackling oil losses. On the kinetic front, the Commission continued to collaborate closely with security agencies, operators and communities.

On the non-kinetic front, NUPRC has implemented strategic regulatory measures to close systemic loopholes. One key initiative is the metering audit across upstream facilities to ensure accurate measurement of production and exports.

To further strengthen control, NUPRC under the leadership of Gbenga Komolafe, an engineer, approved 37 new crude oil evacuation routes to combat oil theft.

The Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) has announced that its 2025 Summit will hold next month in Lagos

With the theme “Refining – Key to Energy Security in Africa,” the two-day summit will bring together top leaders from government, industry, finance, and civil society to chart a new course for Africa’s refining future.

Despite being a major crude oil producer, Africa remains heavily dependent on imported petroleum products. In Nigeria, until recently, more than 90 percent of refined fuel was imported—draining reserves, inflating costs, and exposing the economy to global shocks.

The removal of fuel subsidies in 2023 further highlighted the urgency of building a self-reliant refining sector, as households and industries struggled with rising energy costs.

With the emergence of conventional and modular refineries, growing private investments, and ongoing policy reforms, industry stakeholders say Africa now has a unique opportunity to reshape its refining landscape.

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The summit will feature keynote addresses, technical sessions, panel discussions, and high-level networking. Key issues on the agenda include investor-friendly policies, financing and de-risking strategies, innovative and cleaner refining technologies, regional integration under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), and the role of refining and petrochemicals in job creation and energy transition.

CORAN President, Momoh Jimah Oyarekhua, stressed the importance of the meeting: “After decades of exporting crude and importing refined products at great cost, the time has come to refine more at home, create jobs, and secure Africa’s energy future.

The CORAN Summit 2025 is not just another meeting; it is a rallying point for action, partnerships, and policy direction to transform the refining landscape.”

He added that the gathering is expected to catalyze reforms, strengthen partnerships between government and private operators, promote global best practices, and position Nigeria as Africa’s refining hub—reducing import dependence and enhancing energy security across the continent.

As the umbrella body for licensed crude oil refining companies in Nigeria, CORAN continues to champion sustainable refining, private-sector-led solutions, and policy advocacy aimed at addressing Africa’s energy challenges. According to Oyarekhua, the 2025 Summit will mark a significant milestone in advancing those goals.

Oil prices yesterday continued its fall which began on Friday by over one per cent. This is part of a thin liquidity currently being experienced in the oil market. The fall in price began days ahead of last Friday’s Alaska meeting between President Donal Trump of the US and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, which centered on the war between Ukraine and Russia.

However, with the meeting not yielding anything substantial, crude oil market yesterday continued to be bearish. While Brent crude sold at $65.85 per barrel yesterday, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) sold at $62.80 per barrel- translating to a 1.48 per cent and 1.81per cent drop respectively.

Trump said he would hold off imposing tariffs on countries such as China for buying Russian oil following his talks with Putin. He has previously threatened sanctions on Moscow and secondary sanctions on countries such as China and India that buy Russian oil if no moves are made to end the Ukraine war.

“This will mean Russian oil will continue to flow undisturbed and this should be bearish for oil prices,” said ICIS analyst Ajay Parmar. “It is worth noting that we think the impact of this will be minimal though and prices will likely see only a small dip in the very near term as a result of this news.”

The oil market will wait for developments from a meeting in Washington today between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. European leaders have also been invited to the meeting, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters.

“Market participants will track comments from European leaders but for now Russian supply disruption risks will remain contained,” said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS.

Traders are waiting for a deal, so until that emerges, crude prices are likely to be stuck in a narrow range, said Phil Flynn, a senior analyst with Price Futures Group.

“What we do know is that the threat of immediate sanctions on Russia, or secondary sanctions on other countries is put on hold for now, which would be bearish,” he said.

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After the imposition of Western sanctions, including a seaborne oil embargo and price caps on Russian oil, Russia has redirected flows to China and India.

As of 9:37 a.m. EST on Friday, the U.S. benchmark oil price, WTI Crude, was down by 1.38% at $63.10, as President Trump departed for Anchorage, Alaska, to meet with Putin.

Prior to the Friday meeting, President Trump had threatened “very severe consequences” for Russia if Putin does not agree to a ceasefire agreement, leading to the market struggling to anticipate what the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting would be. Some analysts were concerned that President Trump could agree to Russian terms that could include territorial concession by Ukraine.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had insisted that decisions about Ukraine taken in his absence would be meaningless.

A relaxation of the U.S. sanctions against Russia could increase concerns about oversupply on the market later this year and early 2026.

“The geopolitical risk premium tied to the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska is now a secondary driver, and unless talks break down sharply, the macro drag from the demand outlook may keep a lid on rallies, with Brent potentially struggling above USD 70 per barrel,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a Friday note.

Crude oil prices edged high in the global commodity market on declining American crude inventories, signaling a higher demand outlook in the U.S. Also supporting the uptick are the strong market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut and a slide in the US dollar index. Brent crude was trading at $67.02 per barrel, up by 0.6% from the previous session’s close of $66.57. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 0.6% to $64.04 per barrel, from $63.63 in the previous session. US president Donald Trump signed a decree introducing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, in response to India continuing its oil purchases from Russia on August 6.

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The measure will take effect in 21 days, with certain goods to be exempt during the transition period. Other countries importing Russian oil may also face similar actions, depending on further assessments.

The new sanction, which targets Russia, the world’s second-largest crude oil producer after the US, has raised concerns among market participants over potential disruptions in global supply, pushing prices higher. Trump also announced plans to impose nearly 100% tariffs on imported chips and semiconductors, while US b-based manufacturers would be exempt. The announcement further supported the upward trend in oil prices. Experts said that while trade concerns related to Trump’s tariff decisions persist, the possibility of exemptions could support economic activity and fuel demand, adding upward pressure on oil prices. Expectations for an imminent interest rate cut by the Fed are also keeping global risk appetite strong. Money market pricing suggests a rate cut in September is considered almost certain. A low interest rate environment tends to weaken the US dollar against other currencies, which can increase oil demand and in turn lift prices.

Meanwhile, data pointing to a drop in US commercial crude oil inventories, reinforcing perceptions of strong demand in the world’s largest oil consumer, also contributed to the price increase. Commercial crude stocks fell by 3 million barrels last week, dropping to 423.7 million barrels according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The market had expected an increase of around 200,000 barrels. The country’s daily crude oil production also declined by 30,000 barrels to 13.284 million barrels during the same week.

Crude oil price headed into the week with a rebound after last week’s fall. The commodity’s rise by more than $1 a barrel at the weekend meant it recorded its first weekly gain in three weeks. Analysts attributed this increase to a favourable U.S. jobs report and resumed trade talks between the U.S. and China, raising hopes for growth in the world’s two largest economies.

Brent crude futures settled at $66.47 a barrel, up $1.13, or 1.73 per cent; while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $64.58, up $1.21 or 1.91 per cent. Both benchmarks settled with weekly gains after declining for two straight weeks. Brent has advanced 2.75 per cent ahead of this week, while WTI is trading 4.9 per cent higher.

“I think the jobs report was Goldilocks. It was not too hot, not too cold but just right to increase the chances for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with the Price Futures Group.

According to Reuters, the U.S. Labour Department’s monthly employment report showed the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2 per cent last month. Employers added 139,000 jobs, which combined with downward revisions to prior months’ estimates showed a cooling in labor demand but nothing abrupt; by comparison, monthly job gains averaged 160,000 last year. A rate cut by the U.S. central bank, much desired by President Donald Trump, could boost economic growth and demand for petroleum.

“This market had priced in a lot of bad options. None of it has come to pass. OPEC+ held the line. There have been talks between China and the U.S., though the details are sketchy, at least they didn’t fly apart like Elon (Musk) and Donald (Trump),” said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.

China’s official Xinhua news agency said trade talks between Xi and Trump took place at Washington’s request on Thursday. Trump said the call had led to a “very positive conclusion”, adding the U.S. was “in very good shape with China and the trade deal”.

The oil market continued to swing with news on tariff negotiations and data showing how trade uncertainty and the impact of the U.S. levies are flowing through into the global economy.

On Saturday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and allies including Russia, agreed to ramp up output by a previously announced 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July. The group rejected a Saudi recommendation for a bigger output hike, part of a broader strategy to win back market share for OPEC+.

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It aims to generate at least 60 per cent of its electricity from renewable sources by 2050, and the wind farms visible off its western coast are a major part of those plants.

“The market looks balanced in 2Q/3Q on our estimates as oil demand rises in summer and peaks in July-August, matching supply increases from OPEC+,” HSBC said in a note.

The U.S. oil and gas rig count, an early indicator of future output, fell by four to 559 in the week to June 6, the lowest since November 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes said at the weekend.

Oil rigs fell by nine to 442 this week, while gas rigs rose by five to 114, Baker Hughes said.

“The potential for increased US sanctions in Venezuela to limit crude exports and the potential for Israeli strike on Iranian infrastructure add to upside risks for prices,” analysts at BMI, a Fitch affiliate, said in a note on Friday.

Top exporter Saudi Arabia cut its July crude prices for Asia to near two-month lows. That was a smaller price reduction than expected after OPEC+ agreed to ramp up output by 411,000 barrels per day in July.

The kingdom had been pushing for a bigger output hike, part of a broader strategy to win back market share and discipline over-producers in OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia.