Nigeria is revving itself up for something big and earth-shaking – something that does not look good at all. We Nigerians can change it; but we will not. From all directions, the holders of irreconcilably extreme positions are beating the war drums.
A former Head of State, General Buhari, arguably – and in fairness – one of the best of Nigeria’s former Heads of State,and a well-known Muslim leader in his own right, signs up to seek his party’s nomination for the 2015 presidential election. Surprisingly, even from his own home base, mighty guns are booming to shoot him down. From there, significant members of the ethnic and religious elite violently reject him, and call on the powers of heaven to push him off from running for the presidency. The loudest of their feared ulama, the renowned Ahmad Gumi, favours us Nigerians with an exposition of the philosophy behind their rejection of Buhari. Gumi says that a major part of their reason is that, though corruption is a bad thing, Buhari’s ousting of the Shagari presidency for its corruption, and Buhari’s war on corruption thereafter, offends God and cannot be forgiven by God!
“Don’t be surprised” Gunmi tells Buhari. “You may need to understand that Islam being a pragmatic religion allows the use of Zakkat and public wealth as an instrument to pacify and lure influential people for the sake of righteousness, peace and stability. In modern governance today it translates into the security vote.Thus men are also controlled by money. So if your policy of governance is obsessibly centered on sealing tight the use of money you will have great problem with men”.
In short, God opposes Buhari’s candidacy because Buhari is prone to seeing corruption as an evil that must be eliminated, instead of seeing it as an evil that can be used to “lure” men into the ruler’s religion and into submission to a designed order of control. The military governments, all led by Northern Muslims, that created Nigeria’s present institution of “security vote”, he says, did so in order to give Nigeria’s rulers large amounts of money to use to convert and subdue Nigerians – without having to fear any auditing. Since Buhari is very likely to “seal tight” the use of money for corruption, Buhari is very likely to “have great problem with men”.
Thus, the opposition to Buhari’s candidacy among the inner caucus of the Arewa North elite is too ideologically rooted and too solid to be willed away – in fact, too solid to be dispelled by Buhari’s victory in an election. At the heart of what they obviously want is a full return to unlimited Northern control – to a president like Shagari or Babangida, in the hands of whom corruption will be used powerfully to subvert and emasculate the elite of all parts of Nigeria, while the government goes on diverting resources unfairly to the North, using the powers of the federal government to subdue the rest of Nigeria to Fulani control, to pursue an agenda of “full Islamization” of Nigeria, to further weaken the principle of federalism, and to further reinforce federal control over every aspect of our lives and our country’s resources.
They are in effect serving notice that if Buhari wins, they will give him “great problem” – and Nigeria knows what that can mean from past experiences. Those who have been threatening war and mayhem as means to the solution of Nigeria’s problems, and who have been serving notice that they will “kill, maim, and destroy”, must be counted upon as meaning what they are saying.Some of them admit, at least indirectly, that Boko Haram is an instrument of theirs; others say that, in addition, a Mujaheeden militia is ready to go into action. These are no ordinary times; leaders who count only on success through politics-as-usual in the coming situation are preparing a feast of suffering and pain for their own people.
The same Northern inner caucus that absolutely rejects Buhari also rejects Jonathan absolutely. In fact, Jonathan is, for the purpose of the 2015 presidential election, their Great Satan. The only kind of presidential candidate that will be acceptable to them is a Hausa-Fulani Muslim candidate selected on the platform of their old PDP before Jonathan – rather than one selected on the platform of the APC. In bits and pieces, information is coming out in the open media about their preparations for the moment when Jonathan secures the nomination of his party for another term – preparations including massive legal challenges of Jonathan’s candidacy in the courts, massive riots and attacks on southerners resident in the North, Boko Haram and Mujaheeden strikes across Nigeria, and even an attempt at a military take-over.
Quite naturally, these extreme demands are forcing opposing extreme responses to evolve. Stories of an arms build-up in the South-south have surfaced repeatedly in the media for over three years. Many prominent citizens of the South-south have warned seriously against any attack on the Jonathan presidency, or insisted that, for 2015, it is either Jonathan or ‘No Nigeria’ – and warned Jonathan not to think of giving up or caving in. And hardly any informed or observant Nigerian doubts today that the South-south peoples, plus perhaps the Igbo who have been the principal beneficiaries of the Jonathan presidency, are ready to fight it out this time.
Some of Jonathan’s men have tried feebly to widen his support in the South, and to nurture an all-Southern solidarity. But he has never invested any serious loyalty into the effort. For the most part, about the only peoples he wants in critical positions in his government – especially positions relating to the management of Nigeria’s economy – are, first, the Igbo and, second, the South-south peoples. Even some among the South-south elite are said to be complaining about this imbalance. Some Yoruba (like Dr. Adesina Akinwumi, Federal Minister of Agriculture) are known to be giving excellent service in their positions, but, on the whole, there is not much reason for the Yoruba nation to feel welcome in the Jonathan presidency – a situation that leaves many able Yoruba who would have wished to rally around Jonathan impotent.
As the hostile divide between the hostile warriors of the two extreme positions grows and threatens to destroy Nigeria in 2015, the Yoruba position holds the only possibility of peaceful resolution and Nigeria’s survival. As a nation, the Yoruba want a secular modern Nigeria in which religion shall be kept out of governance, the individual shall be free to hold and propagate the faith of his choice, the nationalities shall be respected in the making of the states of the federation, the allocation of powers and resources shall enable each state to promote its economic development competently, and the federal government shall ably supervise inter-state relations, represent Nigeria in the world, and defend Nigeria.
Obviously, what Nigeria desperately needs is that this Yoruba position be accepted by all Nigerians. Among the two extreme sides, whichever side accepts and adopts this position is likely to win the overwhelming adherence of the Yoruba – and more likely to win the 2015 presidential election and save Nigeria. But – that is not likely to happen. Confusion, conflict and disaster are more likely. It is sad.
