Political survival, dissatisfaction arising from intra-party rifts and tensions, the pursuit of legitimate ambitions, the quest for relevance by diverse politicians are factors underlying allegiance shifts ahead of the 2027 polls.
The first party to be hit by defection this outgoing year was the All Progressives Congress (APC). On March 10, Nasir El-Rufai, former governor of Kaduna State who dropped out as a ministerial nominee, fought back. He announced his exit from the ruling party, citing misalignment between his personal values and the current direction of the APC.
El-Rufai alerted Nigerians to an impending explosion in the ruling party, urging people to brace up for an opposition coalition that would challenge the APC. Former Rivers State Governor, Rotimi Amaechi, also left APC for the African Democratic Congress (ADC).
But the first critical step towards the re-grouping of opposition was the exit of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and his group from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to ADC. A strange bedfellow, Rauf Aregbesola, who had been expelled from APC, became the revived party’s interim national secretary.
Although the coalition has been at a standstill since then, the APC leadership became sensitive to its initial strong propaganda machinery. The table started turning against the platform, following high profile defections from PDP, Labour Party (LP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) to the ruling party.
While there was no uproar when APC was deserted by few notable politicians, critics who flayed the ruling party for accepting defectors from the opposition parties complained that the country was sliding into a one-party state.
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This claim lacks justification. The 1999 Constitution guarantees freedom of association. It also spells out the conditions for defection from one party to another. According Section 109 of the 1999 Constitution (as amended), lawmakers can leave their party if there is “division” within its ranks.
The defections have taken their toll on the PDP, which lost four governors – Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Douye Diri (Bayelsa) and Siminalayi Fubara (Rivers) – to APC. A fifth, Agbu Kefas of Taraba State, has crossed to the ruling party bar the formal reception. The LP was also decimated.
PDP governors defected along with major party chieftains, including members of the National Assembly, commissioners and special advisers, local government chairmen, and other party leaders at the grassroots.
In Bayelsa, Diri’s defection received the backing of 23 members of the state lawmakers, led by Speaker Abraham Ngobere. The 24-member Assembly currently comprises 20 PDP lawmakers; three APC, and one All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
Mbah, accompanied by his predecessor, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, who also decamped, said no known PDP member is left behind in Enugu State.
He added: “This is no whimsical decision. It is a collective move by the political family in Enugu State, comprising members of the National Assembly, members of the House of Assembly, the State Executive Council, all the local government chairmen, all councillors, all political appointees, and over 80 percent of party executives.”
An excited Vice President Kashim Shettima, who received Oborevwori into APC in Asaba, the state capital, where former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa also defected, said: “A political tsunami of this proportion has never happened where all the members of the Upper Chamber of the National Assembly are in the APC.
“The Speaker and all the members of the House of Assembly. So many members of the House of Representatives, the governor and his entire cabinet and 500 councillors across the 25 local government areas of this great state. What testimony do you have greater than this?”
The defectors described PDP as a sinking ship rattled by protracted leadership crisis that has led to factionalisation.
Many chieftains fear that unresolved conflicts put the party and their ambitions in jeopardy ahead of the next general election because the status of the PDP leadership on the register of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is uncertain.
Last month, Taraba State Governor, Agbu Kefas, was on verge of leaving PDP for APC until the rally was put on hold because of the prevailing situation in the country.
While there are speculations that Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang, is considering ditching the main opposition party, Osun State Governor Ademola Adeleke, who faces a major election next year, just resigned his membership of PDP and joined Accord Party whether he picked up the gubernatorial ticket unopposed.
In Kano State, its main stronghold, NNPP has suffered some reverses. Through aggressive mobilisation by Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau, many chieftains have defected to APC, to the consternation of party leader, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso.
The wave of defection has also swept across the two chambers of the National Assembly. Senators and representatives abandoning their parties justified their actions by ongoing leadership crises in PDP and LP, which is polarised into Julius Abure and Nenadi-Usman factions.
The spate of defections has altered the numerical strength of the party caucuses in the Red and Green Chambers. APC Senators are now 73 in the 10th Senate where only 72 legislators are needed to pass any major decision or legislation.
It has also altered the geo-political calculus. In the South-South zone, all six governors are now in APC. The latest, Fubara of Rivers State, announced on December 9 that he was moving to the ruling party to offer full support to President Tinubu.
Before the governor made his move, 17 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly led by Speaker Martins Amaewhule announced they were crossing the aisle and joining APC. It was another dramatic turn of events in the fast-paced world of the state’s politics.
Like 2023, the position of the South on zoning is sacrosant. The general feeling is that since the late Mohammadu Buhari from the North served as president for eight years, a southerner should also serve in the highest office for two uninterrupted terms.
Many observers point out that there is a Tinubu factor in the spate of defections. According to them, his inclusive leadership style is electrifying. A democrat, strategist and bridge builder, he is also endowed with mobilisation prowess, organisational ability and magnetic persuasive talent.
Mba and Diri hailed his national outlook, saying that although the president belongs to APC, he has never discriminated against PDP governors in the distribution of resources. They also denied that their defection was the product of presidential compulsion.
APC has institutionalised a pattern of political structure harmonisation that fosters equity and fairness. For example, following their defections, the governors automatically became state leaders of the APC chapters.
The defections reflect the inability of the opposition to put their house in order and provide alternative choices to voters. It is also the manifestation of weak leadership, lack of resilience and unwillingness to make sacrifice and stick to defining principles.
Analysts believe that these defections underscore political flexibility; an exercise of legitimate right of association and assembly aptly driven by interest. The moral question is ignored because politics and morality exist in clear-cut antithetical relationship.
Elected public officials hide under the constitutional provision that permits them to leave their parties due to leadership crises, particularly at the national level. In the process, democratic accountability is eroded, political choice is nullified and electoral legitimacy is undermined because the electorate primarily vote for the party, with the candidate only acting as the symbol.
The pattern of elite party defection reflects the struggle for power by leading actors, whose claims within political parties are bolstered by the strength of followership they command.
Many critics pointed out that some of the defections are clearly self-serving, and not based on ideology. The gravitations are thus propelled by the perception of their next point of call as the winning party.
The lack of ideological differences between political parties often predispose politicians to switch, to satisfy the goals of steady access to power and resources, and alignment with formidable winning structures that guarantee political and economic opportunities.
As the late First/Second Republic political stalwart, Dr. Kingsley Mbadiwe, once observed, “the world over, some politicians believe in gravitating towards winning parties.”