The Nation Newspaper

Tag: developing countries

  • Diaspora remittances to developing countries to exceed $6.5tr between 2015-2030

    THE International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has estimated that remittances sent to developing countries could cross $6.5 trillion between 2015 and 2030, involving over one billion senders and receivers.

    IFAD said in 2017, 200 million migrants sent 481 billion dollars to remittances-reliant countries of which 466 billion dollars went to developing countries, helping to sustain about 800 million people across the world.

    This amounts to more than three times the annual official development assistance that countries give in aid, the rural development agency said.

    Close to half of remittances will go to rural areas where poverty and hunger are the highest, according to IFAD.

    “Remittances are vital for millions of families, helping them to address their own development goals, but we can help them do more and build their longer-term future,” Gilbert Houngbo, President of IFAD said.

    According to IFAD analysis, families spend about 75 per cent of their remittances on basic needs such as food, housing, education and health.

    “Remittances help reduce hunger and malnutrition, improve education and health levels, and lift people out of poverty.

    “By doing so, remittances contribute directly to the Sustainable Development Goals set by the international community in 2015.

    “Not only are remittances a critical lifeline for millions globally, the direct benefits of money sent home by migrant workers touch the lives of one in every seven persons on the planet,” IFAD said.

    According to IFAD, after spending remittances on basic needs such as food, housing, education and health, a sizable amount – over 100 billion dollars, still remains.

    “This presents a large pool of resources, which can then be invested in financial and tangible assets such as savings or small business development that help families build their future.

    “These productive activities can also create jobs and transform economies, in particular in rural areas.

    “Given appropriate investment options,  customised to their circumstances and goals, remittance families will invest more and become agents of change in their communities,” IFAD  said.

     

  • One in 10 drugs sold in developing countries fake, says WHO

    One in 10 drugs sold in developing countries fake, says WHO

    The World Health Organisation (WHO ) has said that one in 10 drugs sold in developing countries is fake or substandard.

    This has led to tens of thousands of deaths, many of them of African children given ineffective treatments for pneumonia and malaria.

    In a major review of the problem, the WHO described bogus drugs were a growing threat as increased pharmaceutical trade, including Internet sales, open the door to sometimes toxic products.

    Some pharmacists in Africa, for example, say that they are compelled to buy from the cheapest but not necessarily the safest suppliers to compete with illegal street traders.

    Fake drugs could contain incorrect doses, wrong ingredients or no active ingredients at all.

    At the same time, a worrying number of authorised medicines fail to meet quality standards because of improper storage and other issues.

    The scale of the problem is hard to quantify precisely, but a WHO pooled analysis of 100 studies from 2007 to 2016, covering more than 48,000 samples, showed 10.5 per cent of drugs in low and middle-income countries to be fake or substandard.

    With pharmaceutical sales in such countries running at nearly $300 billion a year, this implies that trade in fake medicines is a 30 billion dollar-business.

    The human toll is enormous, according to a team from the University of Edinburgh, which was commissioned by the WHO to study the impact of fake drugs.

    They calculated that up to 72,000 deaths from childhood pneumonia could be attributed to the use of antibiotics with reduced activity, increasing to 169,000 deaths if drugs had no activity.

    Poor-quality drugs also add to the danger of antibiotic resistance, threatening to undermine the power of life-saving medicines in future.

    Another group from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimated that 116,000 additional deaths from malaria could be caused each year by bad anti-malarials in sub-Saharan Africa.

    “Substandard and falsified medicines particularly affect the most vulnerable communities,” said WHO Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus.

    “This is unacceptable.”

    Since 2013 the WHO has received 1,500 reports of fake and low-quality products, with anti-malarials and antibiotics the most commonly reported categories.

    However, the problem extends to everything from cancer drugs to contraceptive pills.

    Sub-Saharan Africa accounted for 42 per cent of all the reports.

  • Developing countries to lead oil demand growth till 2040, says OPEC

    Developing countries to lead oil demand growth till 2040, says OPEC

    The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said developing countries will lead oil demand growth in the next two decades.

    In its 2017 World Oil Outlook launched in Vienna, the cartel said oil demand is expected to grow in the developing countries, especially Asian and the Middle East countries by almost 24 million barrels per day (bpd), to reach 67 million bpd by 2040.

    The report said:“Total primary energy demand is set to increase by 35 per cent in the period to 2040 and oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040.

    “Long-term oil demand has been revised upward by 1.7 million barrels per day compared to the World Oil Outlook  of 2016, with total demand at over 111 million barrels per day by 2040. There is no expectation for peak oil demand over the forecast period to 2040.

    “Developing countries will continue to lead demand growth, increasing by almost 24 million bpd to reach 67 million bpd by 2040. The long-term demand growth comes mainly from the transportation sector – road transportation (5.4 million bpd), petrochemicals (3.9 million bpd) and aviation (2.9 million bpd)”.

    According to the report, oil demand in the road transportation sector is driven by the increasing car fleet in developing countries and declining oil use per vehicle in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. The car fleet is anticipated to change smoothly over the forecast period. In the passenger car segment, electric vehicles are estimated to represent 12 per cent of the car fleet by 2040.

    It said: “Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to increase from 57 million bpd in 2016 to 62 million bpd in 2022, but in the long-term non-OPEC liquids output is anticipated to see a decline, dropping to 60.4 million bpd by 2040, with United States (US) tight oil estimated to peak just after 2025;

    “The demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to expand to  41.4 million bpd by 2040. The share of OPEC liquids in total global liquids supply is estimated to increase to 46 per cent by 2040, from 40 per cent in 2016.

    “Around half of the estimated refining capacity additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific, which is projected to add 9.5 million bpd by 2040. Capacity rationalisation remains a long-term requirement, with some 6-8 million bpd of closures indicated as needed by 2040 if refining regions are to maintain utilisation rates of at least 80 per cent.

    “Global crude movements are expected to increase by around 6.5 million bpd between 2016 and 2040, mostly supported by Asia-Pacific imports and Middle East exports. In the period to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $10.5 trillion”.

    Speaking during the launch, Director, Research Division of OPEC, Dr. Ayed S. Al-Qahtani, said: “The multi-faceted nature of the oil industry and the continued interdependence of all nations; the impact of the ongoing market rebalancing process, specifically on the medium-term outlook; that oil will remain a fuel of choice for the foreseeable future; that security of supply and security of demand are very much two sides of the same coin; and the importance of exploring and evaluating the possible challenges, uncertainties, as well as opportunities, the industry might face.”

  • Remittances to developing countries rise marginally in 2015

    Remittances to developing countries grew only marginally in 2015, as weak oil prices and other factors strained the earnings of international migrants and their ability to send money home to their families, says the World Bank’s latest edition of the Migration and Development Brief, released yesterday.

    Officially recorded remittances to developing countries amounted to $431.6 billion in 2015, an increase of 0.4 percent over $430 billion in 2014. The growth pace in 2015 was the slowest since the global financial crisis. Global remittances, which include those to high-income countries, contracted by 1.7 percent to $581.6 billion in 2015, from $592 billion in 2014.

    The slowing in remittances growth, which began in 2012, was exacerbated last year by low oil prices, which are taking a toll on many oil-exporting remittance-source countries, such as Russia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states.

    As a result, many remittance-receiving countries, including India, the world’s largest remittance recipient, and Egypt saw remittances contract in 2015, as flows from the GCC countries slowed considerably. Remittances contracted by 20 percent to countries in the Europe and Central Asia region, with the heaviest impacts on Tajikistan and Ukraine , as a struggling Russian economy, and depreciation of the Russian ruble against the dollar contributed to the decline in remittances to the region.

    India retained its top spot in 2015, attracting about $69 billion in remittances, down from $70 billion in 2014. Other large recipients in 2015 were China, with $64 billion, the Philippines ($28 billion), Mexico ($25 billion), and Nigeria ($21 billion).

    “Remittances are an important and fairly stable source of income for millions of families and of foreign exchange to many developing countries. However, if remittances continue to slow, and dramatically as in the case of Central Asian countries, poor families in many parts of the world would face serious challenges including nutrition, access to health care and education,” said Augusto Lopez-Claros, Director of the World Bank’s Global Indicators Group.

    Remittance flows are expected to recover this year, after a bottoming out in 2015, with growth driven by continued economic recovery in the United States and the Euro Area, and a stabilization of U.S. dollar exchange rates of remittance-source countries. In addition to currency movements, oil prices are a key downside risk to this outlook. Should the price of oil suffer unexpected declines, remittances from Russia and the GCC would be further buffeted.

     

    The global average cost of sending $200 was about 7.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, down slightly from the previous quarter and 0.6 percentage points below the end of 2014. Sub-Saharan Africa, with an average cost of 9.5 percent, remains the highest-cost region.

    However, major international banks continue to close correspondent banking accounts of money transfer operators (MTO) to limit exposure to money laundering and other financial crimes. A World Bank survey confirms that account closures are widespread, with adverse impacts on remittance costs and flows in rural and remote regions. For example, over the past two years, 84 accounts of 32 Philippine remittance providers (including both banks and MTOs) were closed by 33 foreign banks in 13 major remittance-sending countries, according to the Philippine central bank.

    A special feature on natural disasters and epidemics notes that migration and remittances have long played important roles in helping to cope with natural disasters, although the vast majority of people displaced by a disaster move for only a short period and remain in their home country.