After several years of relentless efforts to ensure that statistical quality is given appropriate attention in national development agenda, the Nigeria Statistical Association, NSA, has secured the National Assembly’s consent with the passage of the Chartered Institute of Statisticians of Nigeria (CISON) Bill. In this interview with a select team of Business Editors, the National President of the Association, Dr. Mohammed Tumala, speaks on what the country stands to benefit by professionalising statistical practice. SIMEON EBULU was there.
Nigeria’s developmental strategies appear not to have placed much em-phasis on statistics as a tool for national development until recently. What has the country lost for relegating statistics to the background in the past?
You cannot measure and monitor national development without statistics. You cannot also possibly get the right mix of policies that will work if statistics is not used in planning. For coming to realise at this hour when nations have moved forward far ahead of Nigeria, that we need statistics, the country has lost an important ingredient in human activity and that is time. Unfortunately, it is not only time that we lost, knowledge and technology has moved far beyond our comprehension, our people are poor, our society is not cohesive. It has really left us at the bottom of the rung of human development.
The World Bank has taken much interest in supporting the country’s statistical development through manpower and institutional capacities building. How have these impacted on the quality of official statistics in the country?
The National Strategy for the Development of Statistics was implemented with support from development partners. The involve-ment of the World Bank has affected the fortunes of statistical infrastructure in the country positively. It unified the National Databank and the Federal Office of Statistics; it resulted in the provision of legal backing for a system with clear demarcation of responsibilities for the production of official statistics. In particular, the production and dissemination of macroeconomic statistics like output, prices, monetary and international trade data has improved in terms of methodology, frequency and timeliness. However, more work is required in the areas of social, sanitation and environmental statistics, and some aspect of financial statistics, particularly public and private corporate finance.
What is your assessment of the performance of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and how can this be improved on?
The NBS has transformed the Nigerian statistics environment. As earlier mentioned, national output is now produced on quarterly basis, prices are available on monthly basis, and many more other macroeconomic variables. These are now released electronically to all users impartially. It is complying with international standards in the production of data. However, government seemed to be gradually withdrawing its support for the new agency in terms of financing. Governance responsibilities were also assigned to persons without technical capacity in data production, while routine surveys necessary for data production remained unfunded. At the helm of affairs and the clearing house of the Nigerian Statistical System is the Governing Board of the NBS, Government needs to appoint technically competent persons on the Board to manage technical responsibilities. Government needs to understand clearly the processes of the NBS and fund data production as a capital project or as an investment.
The CISON Bill has been passed by the National Assembly. How would it impact on the practice?
The time has come for statistics to have its way. There is the growing demand for data in the country. The National Assembly has realised that its functions become more effective when statistics is available. Quality statistics can only be produced by professional statisticians who are guided by documented code/ethics of practice and adore their profession. Indeed, many of the members of the National Assembly we interacted with wish to see the statistics profession practiced like the accounting profession in the public service where the Statistician General recruits, trains and posts statisticians to all ministries under a unified condition of service. That will be the next step we shall take as soon as Mr. President assents to the CISON Bill. For now, we have been challenged to produce quality data for Nigeria.
What does this portend for national capacity building for Nigeria’s statistical system?
Presently, those who wish to practice as statisticians can either go through one of our educational institutions or attend the NBS statistics school with campuses in three locations. And, in almost all MDAs, we have people who found themselves posted to PRS departments and are not statisticians by training. CISON will provide training opportunities for non-statisticians and retraining for statisticians for enhanced professional practice. This will go a long way in complementing government training programmes. CISON will also provide avenues for knowledge sharing and professional interaction that would bring about professional bonding. This has the potential of growing public confidence in the statistics being produced, and hence its use.
Getting the enabling law is one thing and mobilizing members for bodies like yours is another. Do you have strategies in place to make NSA more visible in the public domain?
CISON is ready for take-off from day one. The Bill has provided for transition from NSA to CISON. The NSA over the years has been collecting CISON development levy from members specifically for the smooth take-off of CISON on establishment. In addition, the NSA is an old organisation that I, for instance, have known before graduation. The level of awareness is high, active participation in NSA activities give statisticians advantage in recruitment and promotions. Students of statistics look forward to becoming members on graduation. I may be right to say that we have a very high level of awareness within the statistics and allied professions.
In most professional bodies, examinations are conducted to admit new members while old ones are elevated to Fellows or other positions in recognition of their contributions to the development of their bodies. Is NSA likely to adopt this approach?
Sure; that is the appropriate way to go and we shall adopt it. What makes the statistics profession different is the need for close monitoring of practice. The data we produce and publish are aggregates of numbers collected on individuals, firms, government agencies, etc. High professional ethics and compliance establishes trust and confidence in those who provide the numbers. If such trust is not there, they give you wrong numbers and you have no way of knowing. If the numbers are wrong, aggregates will be wrong and consequent policies inappropriate. In addition to examinations, CISON will also monitor non-disclosure and sincerity in data collection.
National Planning is at the heart of nations’ development globally. What is your advice to the present government on national planning for development?
First, the National Planning Commission, NPC, should be the focal point for economic management playing the role of coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, and development plan implementation. As the custodian of the nation’s strategic plans, the NPC should play a leading role in the budget process since the budget is the cost component of the national plan. Secondly, over the years the level of monitoring of plans/budgets implementation has become almost absent. The NPC and state planning offices should be empowered to monitor and evaluate the implementation of strategic plans and annual budgets which are short term components of the plan.
What is your take on the belief that the time for Nigeria to prioritise statistical data development is now, especially when revenue is dropping fast, causing concern for the socio-economic transformation of the country?
The dimensions of human behaviour are becoming more complex by the day. Populations have become so mobile, economies are becoming service driven and so dependent on IT and global information. No economy can therefore be possibly insulated from vulnerabilities from global markets developments. The way to go is for policy makers to understand all sources, detect early emerging vulnerabilities and take counter cyclical actions. Statistics is possibly the only scientific way of understanding sources and timing of shocks to economic growth. I think the present government has taken the right step so far in its consultation with the national planning commission and we hope that this is sustained.
What roles do you think your association could play in improving fiscal efficiency?
Statistics plays a leading role in public or national finance. Economic theory anticipates leakages in the circular flow of money, either within the domestic economy or between domestic and other jurisdictions. It is statistics that provides an idea on the size and direction of leakages. When government spending is high and human development measures are deteriorating, that statistics indicate leakage. When the country’s exports are consistently far more than its imports, and its external reserves depleting, that statistics indicate leakage. We know that easiest way to fight financial corruption is through data mining. As a country, we have invested in infrastructure that are currently producing huge volumes of data like; the BVN registers, national ID, driving licenses, international passport, bank transactions, phone calls, social media usage, etc. Organisations like the DSS and EFCC should develop their capacities to use information from these sources and take proactive steps to curb financial corruption. Financial corruption can be reduced to the barest minimum by mining banking data alone. Most countries have gone beyond data mining and have migrated to the so called “big data”, which is data large in quantity and diversity, and high in frequency of availability to understand human behaviour. Analog methods cannot fight crimes anymore.
Do you have plans to take statistics as a course of study to universities and other tertiary institutions where it is not being offered now? If yes, how and when?
CISON will work with training institutions on curriculum development, assist in improving the skills of teachers and retraining of practicing statisticians in data production. Statistics as a course has become more popular with students than most physical science subjects because of its cross-cutting content. Most universities will therefore on their own establish a course in statistics or mathematics and statistics. CISON will focus on improving the learning environment in existing departments rather than establishing new departments.
