Will Nigeria break up in 2015 as predicted by some foreign agencies? Group Political Editor EMMANUEL OLADESU examines the factors that can enhance peaceful co-existence and national survival.
Few years ago, a foreign body aroused Nigerians to the reality that the country stood the risk of break-up in 2015. The warning and advice were dismissed with a wave of the hand. Also, in 2009, the former American Secretary of State, Senator Hillary Clinton, peeped into the future, warning that Nigeria may become a failed state because of soaring corruption.
“The most immediate source of disconnect between Nigeria’s wealth and its poverty is a failure of governance at the federal, state and local levels. Lack of transparency and accountability has eroded the legitimacy of government and contributed to the rise of groups protesting the injustice and challenging the authorities of the state”, she submitted.
Another organisation, ‘Fund for Peace’, had listed Nigeria among the failed states. In the list are war-torn Somalia, Iraq, Yemen, Chad, Afghanistan, Congo, Ivory Coast and Haiti. In the last decade, peace has eluded these countries.
In 1994, a former university don, Prof. Adebayo Williams, dissected the polity. He said there are frightening memoranda and manuals for disintegration flying all over the place. “What we are witnessing is a man-made disaster of epic proportions. The Nigerian State has, so far, become a compelling and comprehensive failure”, he submitted, adding that the consequence may be the price for the failure of leadership.
Opinion is divided on the categorisation of Nigeria as a failed state. Some scholars, who believe that the problems confronting the country have been exaggerated, explained that, Nigeria is not yet a failed state; it is a fragile state. However, they agree that state fragility is a prelude to state failure.
Currently, the Nigerian federation is faces a most challenging test of survival. Ethnic militant groups are threatening its existence. In the North, the Boko Haram sect is on the prowl. The members are demanding a Muslim state. In the Middlebelt, the Ombatse Group is unleashing terror. There is no solution in sight. In the Southeast and Southsouth, militants and kidnappers have made life unbearable for people. In the Southwest, there are armed robbery and pockets of kidnapping are on the increase.
The next presidential election will hold in 2015. Ahead of the poll, the struggle for power between the core North and Southsouth is generating tension. The North is demanding for power shift, based on an inexplicable agreement between President Goodluck Jonathan and certain Northern elders. The oil-rich Southsouth has fired back, saying that, if power returns to the North, there will be no oil money to run the country. The implication is that the militants will come out to disrupt mining activities in the coastal region.
The federating partners have grudges against the centre. Thus, they are in stiff competition for power and relevance. The debate is also focusing on the unresolved national question-citizenship and indigeneship, secularity of the state, state and community policing, revenue allocation, devolution of power, restructuring, rotation or zoning of presidential power, corruption, and national conference.
Past indications have combined with the present realities that Nigeria was erected on a faulty foundation. When the colonial masters forcefully lumped the diverse tribes and nations, their opinion was not sought. Since 1914, it has been an uneasy marriage. The first strain on the emerging colonial federation came with the threat by the Northern delegates to the constitutional conference to split. They shouted “arabah”. But the British authorities persuaded them to remain and benefit from oil.
Apart from the peculiar struggle for power among the contending regional leaders, Nigeria gave birth to a promising the First Republic anchored on true federalism, regional autonomy and fair revenue sharing based on the principles of derivation, need and national interest. The only dark side of that epoch was the lack of national outlook and festering of ethnic interests above the national interest. But the situation reflected the image of Nigeria as an amalgam of incompatible, diverse and antagonistic social formations. The Premier of Eastern region, Dr. Nnamidi Azikiwe, told his Northern counterpart, Alhaji Ahmadu Bello: “Let us burry our differences”. Bello replied: “No, let us understand our differences”. The Premier of Western Region, Chief Obafemi Awolowo, had said: “Nigeria is a geographical expression”.
The coup of 1966 terminated the delicate marriage. But it also compounded Nigeria’s woes. The military rejected the federal principle and foisted a unitary system. The army mirrored the polity, its ethnic bias and cravings for power in regional interest. Thus, under the military regime, the country nearly disintegrated when it was plunged into a three year civil war. In post-war period, the North, more or less, consolidated its control of the federal power, until 1999, when the regions renegotiated for power rotation.
Many believe that Nigeria is not hale and hearty, despite its huge natural deposit. The sixth largest producer of oil in the world is going backward, unlike the Asian countries, which took off on the same pedestrian foundation like it almost six decades ago. The manufacturing sector is gone. Churches and residential buildings are not sprouting up from the industrial estates. The army of unemployed youths is now a liability instead of asset. Yet, profligacy, theft and graft are peculiar to the privileged few in government. Disturbed by the trend, Afenifere Renewal Group (ARG) led by Hon. Wale Oshun, said that “Nigeria is at crossroads”.
Efforts at resolving the national question through constitution amendment have failed. Dismissing the 1999 Constitution as a ruse, the late Chief Rotimi Williams said the document, which is actually a military decree, lied against itself, when it opened with the preface: “We the people”. Another lawyer, Chief Niyi Akintola (SAN), described it as a rebellion to true federalism. Citing two defects of the constitution, he said it is wrong for the Federal Government to have input into the creation of local government, adding that it is also wrong for the governors, who are the chief security officers in their states to rely on the Abuja-based Inspector-General of Police for maintenance of law and order.
Since the police is beyond reach, governors have been giving support to vigilante groups. ethnic militia and other para-military forces. Irked by this development, a lawyer, Kola Awodein (SAN), said these “emergency and quack security men”, who lack proper training and structure, are dangerous. But what has also dented the image of the police is its inability to resolve high profile murders. When eminent Nigerians, including former Justice Minister Chief Ajibola Ige, Alfred rewane, Harry Marshall, Abiye Sekibo, Funso Williams, Iyalode Bisoye Tejuoso, and Ayo Daramola were killed, foreign investors started to doubt the prospects of a safe atmosphere for business.
Ethno-religious crises have aggravated the security challenge. So far, the state of emergency in the troubled states have not halt the killings. Non-indigenes have left for their regions of origin, having lost relations and property. This has generated bad blood. Even, wealthy indigenes cannot visit home because f the fear of kidnapping.
Many political scientists have warned that the inability of the country to resolve the challenges of nation-building and development, especially identity, integration, legitimacy and distribution crises, may not augur well for national unity. At issue is whether the development of a national outlook is possible. “Nigerians see themselves, first as indigenes of their tribes, sub-tribes and ethnic nations. There is no sense of attachment and belonging outside your region of origin. A President is perceived as the Northern President, Southwest President and Southsouth President. There is loyalty to the regions, and not the centre”, said Boniface Ayodele, a political scientist.
Closely related is the integration crisis. This relates to forging cohesion among the tribal units, who differ on sensitive national issues. But far more challenging is the legitimacy crisis, which is triggered by the abuse of the ballot box and lack of performance by the government. A peaceful, free and fair presidential election won by the late Chief Moshood Abiola was criminally annulled, drawing the country to an edge. But in this dispensation, democracy has been mocked by the assault on the ballot box. It is a tragedy, said Ayodele, that many unelected governors and parliamentarians have invaded the corridor of power, thereby creating a disconnect between the government and the governed. The testimony was the confession by the late President Umaru Yar’Adua that the election that brought him to power was severely flawed.
How has the country resolved the distribution crisis, in a mono-product economy where oil is the main source of income? should the national cake be shared among the component units’ among the producers and non-producers of oil? Which formula for distribution will foster equity, fairness and justice and minimise the complaints of the “marginalised” and “minority”?”
The offer of amnesty to the restless Niger Delta youths have only temporarily doused the tension. There are still cries of despondency in the Niger Delta. When militants strike occasionally, the oil will cease to flow. One of the measures being adopted now is the PIB, which has become a bone of contention between the goose that lays the golden egg and the North. Former Lagos State Governor Lateef Jakande said it is ironic that the oil-rich region has suffered monumental neglect and deprivation in the past. He blamed the government for not doing enough for the Niger Delta. “This is injustice”, he said.
For long, citizens have been denied of comfortable living. In the last 14 years, lack of electricity has crippled business operations, especially by artisans. The cost of doing business has gone up because people have shifted to generators as the alternative source of power. Efforts to fix the electricity has not succeeded. Generally, government seems to have lost the infrastructure battle. Roads are full of potholes. Schools are on their knees because education is underfunded. Nigeria is the only oil-producing country without a functioning refinery. Poverty is on the increase.
Government has also failed woefully by its inability to diversify the economy. Thus, if there is oil theft or disruption of mining activities in the Southsouth, Nigeria will be held to ransom.
A group, Transparency International, has listed Nigeria among the most corrupt countries in the world. Reflecting on this classification, activist priest Dr. Mathew Kukah blamed the elite for the cankerworm. “Greed will always stand on the way of national interest”, he said. In fact, corruption is the greatest problem. Frontline social crusader Dr. Tunji Braithwaite lamented that the resources for development have been carted away by those in power, making infrastructural development to suffer.
During his visit to Ghana, United States President Barack Obama pointed out that corruption could progress. In an obvious reference to Nigeria, he said: “No country is going to create wealth, if its leaders exploit the economy to enrich themselves or police can be bought off by drug traffickers. No business wants to invest in a place where the government skims 20 percent off the top or head of the port authorities is corrupt. No person wants to live in a society where the rule of law gives way to the rule of brutality and bribery. That is not democracy; that is tyranny and now is the time to end it”.
The anti-graft bodies are in dilemma. While it is relatively easier to fight corruption outside government, it is difficult to curb corruption in the corridor of power. It appears that the government has become the greatest corrupter of the society. In the past, critics alleged that the anti-graft bodies were used by government to intimidate and witch-hunt perceived foes.
There is no evidence that efforts are being made to resolve the multiple crises. The preoccupation of those power is the 2015 polls. More attention, energy and resources are devoted to the scramble for power than productive governance and commitment to national survival.
To the stakeholders, disintegration is not the answer. They are of the opinion that the restoration of true federalism, with its elements of regionalism, state police, devolution of power and restructuring, may save the country from doom. “We need to convene a Sovereign National Conference to discuss the basis for peaceful co-existence”, said Chief Ayo Adebanjo, an Afenifere chieftain. A legal luminary, Prof. Ben Nwabueze (SAN), agreed with him. “We need the conference now more than before”, he said.
