By Alade Fawole
With the certification by Congress of his electoral victory, it is certain that Donald J. Trump will assume the presidency of the US for a second, non-consecutive tenure on January 20. Many are already gazing into the crystal ball to see what the second tenure of this mercurial personality and unusual politician holds for the world. I claim neither the power of clairvoyance nor a crystal ball to see into the future and decipher what his tenure promises. This is merely an exercise in intelligent speculation, postulation or prediction, a routine pastime of scholars. The implication of course is that as predictions go, they do not have to be right, but it would be a delight even if just a handful of my predictions are proven to be correct at the end of his four-year tenure.
A few observations are however pertinent at the outset.
The first one is that the global world has changed dramatically and irreversibly since Trump left the White House in January 2021. Tremendous geopolitical shifts have occurred and in such a manner that challenges America’s global dominance in Europe, Asia, and even here in Africa. The Russia-Ukraine war has severely tested Western unity, resolve and military capability; the massive Western economic and other sanctions imposed on Russia have backfired so spectacularly that it is the European economies rather than Russia’s that have been hardest hit, while the war has rejuvenated Russia’s military power through rapid industrial production. In the process, Ukraine has become a pathetic shell of its once vibrant self, and the geopolitical map of Europe has altered significantly in Russia’s favour, at least for now. This is the reality the new Trump administration would have to reckon with. Situation in the Middle East is fluid, unpredictable, with the influence of other outside powers such as Russia, Russia and Turkey, provoking tectonic shifts at such an alarming speed; both the US and Israel are derided globally because of their deliberate subversion of and trampling upon international law and civilized norms, and the US even much more derided because of its hypocrisy.
In Asia, geopolitical rivalries with China increasingly favour the latter, whilst North Korea remains the principal enfant terrible in the Korean Peninsula. Though Latin America remains Washington’s unchallenged sphere of influence, but stirrings of dissent remain in Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, and increasingly even in Argentina.
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Africa, where more and more states are discovering the courage to assert their sovereignty, by opposing the basing of foreign military forces on their soil, is my focus here.
Nobody in my view should be starry-eyed about US-Africa relations under Trump. Simple reason: all US presidents are the same, no matter the person or their political party, and America’s national interests drive their foreign policies. Even Barack Obama, though strongly related to Africa by blood from his Kenyan father, was no different while in the White House, and Africans must still hold him responsible for his deliberate and wilful destabilization of Libya, the callous murder of Muammar Gaddafi, and the eventual descent of that country into violence and balkanization under three separate warlords. Libya is a basket case today, its destruction and arms looted form its armouries are fuelling jihadist terrorism and insurgencies across the Sahara-Sahel region, all courtesy of Barack Obama!
I do not expect any goodies for Africa under the Trump presidency, except may be some tokenistic concessions to a few of the “shitholes” therein for purely transactional reasons. The core objective of Trump’s presidency is to make America great again by whatever means necessary, the implication being that he would not hesitate to trample upon the rights and interests of other countries and peoples. He has recently at a news conference in his Mar-a-Largo redoubt openly threatened to repossess the Panama Canal from Panama, and take over Greenland, an autonomous territory of Denmark, a fellow NATO member state, by force if necessary. He considers these moves required for America’s national security, caring little about the sovereign rights of those concerned.
As it is, Africa is endowed with vital mineral resources that America badly covets, and would stop at nothing to secure access to them, include staving off other competing powers. That, without prejudice to whoever occupies the White House at any point in time, has been America’s fundamental interest in and the sole preoccupation of its Africa policy since the early 1960s. Not minding who the president is, the US foreign policy and national security establishment is an immensely powerful, permanent bureaucracy, complemented by sundry think tanks, consultants, academics, policy research institutes, members of Congress, lobbyists, special interest groups (such as big pharmaceutical firms, major armament manufacturers, oil multinationals), euphemistically called the “Deep State” that firmly ensures that no White House occupant strays from America’s fundamental objectives of resource appropriation (by force if need be) and the pursuit of global hegemony and empire-building.
America’s principal interest in Africa is to control access to the vast hydrocarbon resources of the Gulf of Guinea and other strategic natural resources available across the continent. Not this alone, the continent is also a vast arena of geopolitical competition with other great powers like China, Russia, India, so it isn’t African interests that is Washington’s concern but securing its hegemonic foothold in the competition. Let’s not forget that it was Donald Trump who, during his first presidency, donated the sovereign state of Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (formerly Western Sahara), and full member state of the African Union, to Morocco! Morocco, a fellow African Union member state, has held on illegally to portions of that resource-endowed country. Again, outgoing President Biden had vowed to counter China in Africa and curtail what its terms ‘malign Russian activities’ as well, evidence that Trump, the man who loves to portray and project power, would do no less.
Will Africa be immunized from Trump’s threat to punish the BRICS+ nations by imposing 100 percent tariffs on them if they ever attempt de-dollarizing their international trade and seeking alternative payment platforms against the US-controlled SWIFT? The answer should definitely be a resounding No! African countries are particularly vulnerable to economic sanctions because they are largely producers of primary commodities whose prices they do not control; dependent on the West mostly for their imports, and critically beholden to Western-controlled international financial institutions and multinational banks that had cleverly sucked them into a vicious international debt peonage.
His second and final term will end, hopefully, four years from now in 2029. That’s when we can do a thorough post mortem examination to find out if my scepticisms and misgivings are right or wrong. That means I have four years of respite before I can be justly castigated for my views and predictions. But as I made clear above, I’m not afraid to be wrong. If anything, I would love to be proved wrong: that Trump might actually turn a new leaf and behave more like a global statesman rather than the divisive, uncaring transactional bully he is known to be. He can still make America great not necessarily by ruthlessness and insensitivity but by striving to make the world safe for all, and for America to thrive in it.



