The decline in Nigeria’s coffee exports may not necessarily signal a fall in agricultural output but rather, the growing strength of the domestic industrial market
Chief Executive Officer, Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), Dr. Tayo Aduloju, in interview with The Nation, said the shift in export volume may represent a new dynamic in the country’s export landscape, where industrialisation and value-addition initiatives are diverting primary agricultural products from foreign markets to local factories.
He said: “I think we need to do some better analysis. When we see these drops, we have to ask what they mean. Do they mean total productivity output in coffee beans drops? Which could be one problem, of course. Most agricultural output in some parts of the country drops for different reasons—insecurity, climate change, access to credit, etc. But that does not by itself reflect a change in the nominal output”.
He noted that as investors are being encouraged to manufacture finished products within Nigeria, they are increasingly competing with traditional export markets for raw materials such as coffee, cocoa, and shea butter.
“Some of that coffee, cocoa, soya production, even shea butter production that were purely export are now being competed for by those we ask to invest here.”
This is to do new economic value-added to those products, so that reduces your exports.
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“If you are doing 500 metric tonnes—and this is just hypothetically—of a particular export crop, and then your domestic demand, your industrial demand locally is now 5,000, what you will see on the export side is a drop in reduction. But it does not mean there was a drop in outputs. It’s now that there’s a local industrial demand in a local industrial market that is absorbing all the primary production,” Aduloju said.
He pointed to visible examples of this trend. “I know Nestlé now produces a Nigerian version of some of its coffee, where they are using as much local materials as possible. My guess, for example, is they are using some of our coffees. And then I’ve seen in many of our trade fairs now our local coffee, you know, that we are now selling locally, which is cheaper than your Nestlé and your other brands,” Aduloju said.
This shift, he argued, presents both a challenge and an opportunity. While it may cause a short-term dip in export figures, it highlights the urgent need to scale up production to meet both domestic and export demand. “It now becomes a valid point in all to scale up production of coffee beans to a scale that matches domestic, industrial consumption and demand plus export demand. I think that’s where the direction should actually go with most of the export crops. That’s the conversation we need to have next,” he stressed.
Globally, coffee consumption continues to rise, but Africa is witnessing a troubling decline in production, even as plantations in Asia expand to meet demand. The fall in African output has been linked to land loss to real estate development, as well as the impact of pests and diseases on crops.
Meanwhile, global coffee prices have swung wildly this year, ranging from a high of $4.20 per pound to as low as $2.88 in July, underscoring the volatility of the market.
Currently, Nigeria is not currently among the top 10 coffee producers in Africa—a list that includes Burundi, Cameroon, Côte d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Guinea, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Tanzania, Togo, and Uganda. Yet experts believe Nigeria’s overlooked coffee industry has the potential to generate more than $2 billion annually.
Currently, Nigeria’s coffee exports remain modest, with an annual output of under one million bags. Industry stakeholders argue that strategic investments, modernised farming practices, and value-added processing are critical to unlocking the sector’s potential.
Chairman , Board of Trustees , Federation of Agricultural Commodity Association of Nigeria (FACAN), Dr. Victor Iyama, highlighted coffee’s global significance. He noted that it is the second most traded and valuable commodity worldwide and the first among agricultural commodities. However, he expressed concern that structural deficiencies, limited investment, and poor-quality seeds have left Nigerian coffee farmers unable to match the prices and productivity ofitz African counterparts .
While production in Nigeria remains stagnant, consumption is expected to rise. ReportLinker projected that Nigeria’s coffee consumption will reach 8.8 thousand metric tonnes next year, up slightly from 8,000 metric tonnes in 2021. Analysts warn, however, that without urgent investments in high-quality seedlings, advanced farmer training, and modern processing facilities, Nigeria risks missing out on the significant economic potential of coffee.
According to 6Wresearch, a market intelligence and advisory firm, Nigeria’s coffee market could see growth taper between now and 2029. It projects that after starting strongly at 7.74 per cent in 2025, growth will soften to 1.54 per cent by 2029. The firm noted: “The Nigeria coffee market is experiencing steady growth driven by increasing urbanisation and changing consumer preferences. Instant coffee dominates the market due to its convenience and affordability, but there is a rising interest in specialty coffee among a niche segment of consumers. Local coffee shops and international chains are expanding, contributing to the development of a coffee culture in major cities like Lagos and Abuja. The market faces challenges such as limited domestic production, reliance on imports, and inconsistent quality standards. However, initiatives to promote local coffee production and improve quality are gaining traction. Overall, the Nigeria coffee market presents opportunities for both domestic and international coffee companies to capitalise on the growing demand for diverse coffee products.”
In a bold step, the Cross River State government recently partnered with agribusiness firm JR Farms to launch an ambitious project to cultivate 30 million coffee seedlings across the state. Speaking at the launch, Governor Bassey Otu described the initiative as a strategic move to reintroduce and reposition Cross River as the coffee capital of Nigeria and an emerging player in the international market.
“With 30 million robust and climate-appropriate seedlings being distributed across our 18 local government areas, this project offers much more than cultivation. It is about creating jobs, generating wealth, building sustainable livelihoods, promoting agro-industrial development, and restoring our ecological balance,” Otu said.
