The Federal Government has told the French government that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s economic reforms are moving forward steadily and are helping to build stronger political understanding across the country, even as the changes bring short-term challenges.
The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Senator Abubakar Bagudu, made this known on Wednesday in Abuja during a meeting with officials from the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) Microeconomic Risk Analysis Due Diligence Mission, led by its Country Director, Mr. Jacky Amprou.
Bagudu said the reforms have helped bring the executive and legislative arms of government closer in working together, while also improving cooperation among the federal, state, and local governments.
“The reforms have improved cooperation between the executive and legislative branches of government. The National Assembly has been very supportive of the President’s bold economic initiatives,” he told the AFD team. He added, “Of equal importance is the friendly relationship among the federal, state, and local governments.”
According to the Minister, the economic changes introduced over the past two and a half years are beginning to produce results, including better economic stability, stronger confidence from investors, and a growing sense of political unity across the country.
He explained that, even with political tensions in some regions and the difficult timing of the reforms, the government has stayed committed to pushing through important economic measures. Bagudu noted that the rising level of political agreement around these policies has helped to steady the naira, keep investor interest alive, and reduce the usual uncertainty that often comes before elections in developing economies.
Speaking on President Tinubu’s long-term plans, Bagudu said the government is working toward building a one-trillion-dollar economy within the next five years. He explained that this goal is based on inclusive growth that allows development to spread from the grassroots to the national level.
He said a key part of this plan is the Renewed Hope Ward Development Plan, which is designed to identify economic opportunities in all 8,809 wards across the country and bring local needs into national planning.
“At the heart of this approach is making sure development starts from the ward level, moves through the states, and finally shapes the national development plan,” Bagudu said.
He added that the government will focus strongly on agriculture, local production, and value chains to create jobs, improve food security, and raise household incomes.
Bagudu also said the government remains committed to private-sector-led growth and is working to make Nigeria more attractive to both local and foreign investors, despite challenges such as low revenue, high interest rates, and global economic pressures.
He admitted that the reforms have caused some short-term pain for citizens but said they are necessary for the country’s long-term stability and sustainable growth.
Earlier, Mr. Amprou told the meeting that the AFD mission is not focused on a single project but is carrying out a broad review of Nigeria’s economic and structural reforms. He said the agency is updating its country risk and economic assessment, which will guide future support and financing decisions.
He noted that since 2022, Nigeria has introduced major reforms that have changed the economic landscape, and the mission is seeking a deeper understanding of how the government plans to strengthen these reforms and drive faster national development.
Also speaking, the Permanent Secretary of the Ministry, Dr. Deborah Odoh, welcomed the AFD delegation and other development partners. She said it is important for all international support to align with Nigeria’s 2026–2030 National Development Plan.
She described Nigeria as a strong destination for growth and thanked development partners for their continued support, while stressing that all assistance should match the country’s own development goals.
Both sides agreed that future AFD activities in Nigeria must follow the government’s development priorities. They also discussed plans for a new AFD–Nigeria Country Partnership Agreement, as the current five-year agreement is expected to end in 2025, so that the next phase of cooperation will align with Nigeria’s 2026–2030 development plan.
It’s unfortunate that people who don’t understand ‘Tinubunomics’ are turning it upside down
It is perhaps inevitable that commentaries on economic policies in most societies tend to be undertaken by many who lack the requisite expertise for informed and dispassionate policy analysis on the pertinent issues. This is because the economy affects everyone in the polity, but those with the appropriate knowledge to tackle a subject that assumes ever-increasing technical complexity like economic science are negligible.
Again, economic discourse invariably involves a high degree of emotions, especially in periods of existential hardship, thus rendering objective analysis more difficult. Politicians in quest of power, for instance, are wont to discredit economic policies of incumbent governments, thereby creating the impression that a change of government will usher in an instantaneous Eldorado.
In the same vein, vested interests blame extant policies for current difficulties even if the root causes are more complex and nuanced. It is thus not surprising that the Director-General of the Budget Office, Dr Tanimu Yakubu, recently took on critics of the ongoing economic reforms of the President Bola Tinubu administration, and cautioned against the tendency to engage in sensational critiques with scant regard for the principles of public finance.
Yakubu’s position can be understood against the background, for instance, of many opposition politicians blaming such reforms as removal of fuel subsidy or the merger of the parallel exchange rate markets for worsening poverty levels without indicating if there were any viable alternatives to such policies or how structural reforms could be implemented without some pain.
According to the Budget Office boss, “Tinubunomics was never a promise of instant abundance. It is a macro-fiscal reset undertaken within hard constraints: inherited debt service, FX realism, security spending, legacy arrears, and competing constitutional obligations”. He insists that the reforms are not a quick fix for instant wealth but meant to address inherited deep fiscal challenges to restore price signals, improve revenue and rebuild economic credibility.
Yakubu points out the fallacy in exaggerated claims of the purported revenue figure of N150 trillion accessed by the Federal Government. In this regard, he stresses that “Borrowing is not income; it is financing and creates future obligations. Federation receipts are not equivalent to what the Federal Government can spend. Once these distinctions are ignored, any number – no matter how dramatic – can be manufactured”.
We agree with him that the country’s rising debt stock cannot be attributed solely to fresh borrowing while discounting the fact that a substantial percentage of the increase in Naira equivalent of the debt is as a result of revaluation of existing external debt due to exchange rate adjustment.
In any case, generalised condemnation of borrowing is often silent on where funds for investment in critical infrastructure will come from in the face of severe revenue shortfalls. The problem is surely not borrowing but the use to which such fund is put, a point which the administration’s economic managers must be mindful of.
Rather than creating a huge pool of spendable funds, he posits that the removal of fuel subsidy plugged sources of huge resource leakage and the benefits will be gradual, not sudden. In the same vein, he admonishes critics of public economic policy not to routinely aggregate tax collections, customs receipts, borrowing and subsidy savings into huge figures that are illusory and misleading.
It is of course commendable that Dr Yakubu has tried to place the administration’s economic reform policies within the proper context in public discourse. But the truth is that criticisms of government’s handling of the economy will persist for as long as it takes for the cost of living crisis to ease and the quality of life to improve meaningfully for many citizens.
This should motivate government to intensify efforts to achieve accelerated economic recovery, particularly through drastically reducing waste in governance and more effectively tackling the menace of corruption. This is even as no effort should be spared to continue to explain to the public the nature, import, course and progress of the reforms.
The Lagos State Government has reinforced its strategic economic planning framework with the hosting of the 3rd Economic Roundtable, convened to refine policy direction and unlock emerging sectors for inclusive and sustainable growth.
The event, held in Lagos with the theme “Building Forward: Unlocking Emerging Sectors for an Inclusive, Resilient, and Prosperous Lagos Economy,” focused on the state’s economic outlook and sectoral priorities for 2026 and beyond.
Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget, Olayinka Ojo, said the forum underscores Lagos’ commitment to evidence-based planning, responsible governance, and shared development.
She stressed that the state’s resilience as Nigeria’s commercial capital is sustained through deliberate planning and strong sectoral collaboration.
According to her, insights from the roundtable will directly inform the State’s Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), the 2026 budget, and strategic reforms under the THEMES+ agenda.
She noted that the government cannot drive economic transformation alone and called for deeper collaboration with the private sector, academia, civil society, and development partners to ensure inclusive growth and human capital development.
In his keynote address, Commissioner for Economic Planning and Budget, Mr. Ope George, said Lagos is at a defining stage in its economic evolution and must embrace smarter, innovative, and adaptive planning models.
He explained that the roundtable provides an opportunity to review the State’s 2025 performance, identify improvement areas, and align investments with demographic expansion, climate risks, and global economic shifts.
George highlighted key focus areas for discussion, including urban regeneration, expansion of the creative economy, development of water transportation, and sectoral reforms aimed at positioning Lagos as Africa’s leading sub-national economic hub.
He reaffirmed the State Government’s commitment to data-driven decision-making and collaborative development to ensure progress is felt by every Lagos resident.
Also speaking at the event, the Special Adviser to the Governor on Blue Economy, Emmanuel Damilola, said Lagos is making unprecedented investments in modernizing water transportation infrastructure under the Omi-Eko initiative.
He noted that the goal is not to eliminate road traffic, but to decongest it by offering efficient alternatives through rail and waterways.
According to him, the project is anchored on clean mobility, climate adaptation, and economic connectivity, with over 75 hybrid or fully electric ferries, 15 active routes, and 25 upgraded terminals planned for deployment.
He added that the Omi-Eko initiative is supported by strong international financing, including a €110 million EU-funded grant, the largest of its kind globally, alongside counterpart funding by Lagos and private sector investment through the Intelligent Ticketing System.
Damilola stated that the project is expected to move 20–30 million passengers annually, reduce CO₂ emissions by over 41,000 tonnes, support waterfront commerce, generate thousands of jobs, and improve access for riverine communities.
He also emphasised that informal operators, who make up about 90% of the sector, are being fully integrated through transition support, inclusion programmes, and continuous community engagement.
The roundtable panel of discussion involving the Commissioner for Physical Planning and Urban Development, Mr Oluyinka Olumide, Prof. Olufemi Shuaib, UNILAG; CEO, Chocolate City, Mr. Abuchi Peter Ugwu; Professor of Geography with specialisation in Transportation, Logistics & Spatial Planning, UNILAG, Prof. Samuel Oni; Dr. Amina Olohunlana, UNILAG, with renewed commitments from key stakeholders to accelerate Lagos’ economic transformation through innovation, infrastructure expansion, sustainability, and social equity.
The deliberations are expected to shape policy outcomes that will drive a more inclusive, resilient, and prosperous Lagos in the coming decade.
The Nigerian Institute of Management (Chartered) has urged government at all levels, private sector leaders, and professionals to embrace emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain, and cloud solutions to drive innovation, productivity and economic growth.
The institute said that no country or organisation can remain competitive without deliberately investing in digital tools.
President and Chairman of Council of NIM, Commodore Abimbola Ayuba (rtd.), gave the charge on Monday at the opening of the 2025 Annual National Management Conference in Abuja, themed “Leveraging Emerging Technologies to Drive Innovation, Creativity and Productivity.”
Ayuba said, “Technology is everything and every forward-looking nation and organisation that wants to go the distance must leverage emerging technologies to drive innovation, creativity and productivity.
According to the NIM boss, for Nigeria to harness the full benefits of innovation, it must create a peaceful and enabling environment.
He urged all Nigerians to join hands with the present administration to move the country forward.
“Let me seize this moment to remind all of us that for Nigeria to move forward, there must be a break from the past. The operating environment must be conducive and peaceful.
“We all know that no meaningful development can take place in a chaotic or insecure atmosphere. The Institute, therefore, urges all Nigerians to join hands with the present administration to move the country forward,” he stated.
Country Director of the Chemonics Global Health Supply Chain-Procurement and Supply Management (GHSC-PSM) Project in Nigeria, Michael Egboh, called on the Federal Government to prioritise investments in robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) as a pathway to accelerating national development.
He said Nigeria has the potential to become a global technology hub, citing the achievements of Nigerians in Silicon Valley, Cambridge, and other international innovation centres.
Egboh, who was the keynote speaker at the event, noted that the future of global economies is shaped by technological innovation, and Nigeria must not be left behind in harnessing these advancements for growth.
According to him, embracing robotics and AI will not only transform productivity across various sectors but also position the country as a competitive player in the global digital economy.
He said, “We need to establish a clear national strategy to integrate AI, blockchain, and cloud in sectors such as health, education and governance. We must invest in talent, innovation and digital infrastructure to accelerate productivity and reduce costs.
“Then investment in education and talent pipelines, need to introduce AI, data literacy and cyber security in curricular; scale boot camps, scholarships and apprenticeship in tech hubs and universities, promote local language AI resource centers to improve accessibility.
“We need to build an enabling digital infrastructure, expand affordable, high speed internet access nationwide, including rural areas, accelerate 5G deployment with neutral host models to reduce cost, invest in data centers and cloud regional hub to reduce latency and data sovereignty, concern; support startup and strengthen data governance and security.
The conference, which attracted policymakers, academics, and industry leaders, is expected to produce policy recommendations that the Institute will transmit to the federal government and other stakeholders to drive technological transformation in Nigeria.
The first half of 2025 has been described by analysts at Norrenberger as a period of “recalibration” for the Nigerian economy — a phase in which tentative stability began to emerge after the severe disruptions of 2024. Assistant Editor Nduka Chiejina reports on the half year (H2) Economic Outlook.
According to the firm’s H2 2025 Economic Outlook, the domestic economy experienced a modest rebound as growth momentum returned in key sectors, while inflationary pressures eased slightly. This has been supported by ongoing reforms, tighter monetary policy, and new fiscal measures intended to shore up government revenues. At the same time, Nigeria’s position in the global economic order has remained vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices, shifting trade dynamics, and geopolitical developments that have rattled major economies.
One of the most significant domestic events of the first half of 2025 was the rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), an exercise long anticipated by economists and investors seeking a clearer picture of the country’s economic fundamentals. With the new base year, official statistics now provide a more accurate reflection of economic activity, capturing the dynamism of emerging sectors such as technology, creative industries, and renewable energy.
The rebasing revealed a GDP growth rate of 3.13% in the first quarter of 2025, signaling an economy that is expanding at a steady, if unspectacular, pace. Inflation, which had previously hovered at uncomfortable levels above 28%, showed signs of moderation, easing to 22.22% by June 2025. While still high, the reduction provided some relief to households and businesses grappling with cost pressures. Analysts attributed this to a combination of improved food supply chains, better exchange rate management, and the lagged impact of tighter monetary policy.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) remained resolute in its hawkish stance, holding its Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) steady at 27.5%. This decision, according to Norrenberger, reflected a deliberate effort to balance the twin objectives of managing inflation and preserving investor confidence. Yet, there are growing indications that the CBN may soon tilt towards rate cuts in the second half of the year as inflation moderates further and the need to stimulate private sector lending becomes more pressing.
Another defining domestic development was the passage of four major tax reform bills by the National Assembly. These reforms aimed at widening the tax net and improving fiscal sustainability, are expected to strengthen government revenues, reduce reliance on oil earnings, and provide more resources for infrastructure and social spending. However, successful implementation will depend on overcoming institutional bottlenecks and ensuring compliance across formal and informal sectors.
Nigeria’s Path in the Second Half
Looking ahead, the Norrenberger report anticipates that Nigeria’s recalibration will deepen in the months to come. The fixed income market, which has been characterized by elevated yields due to tight monetary policy, is projected to experience a gradual correction as speculation mounts about a potential policy shift by the CBN. If interest rates are cut, borrowing costs could ease, providing some relief to businesses while also encouraging greater activity in the equities market.
Still, the risks remain significant. Domestic challenges such as fiscal deficits, infrastructure gaps, and insecurity continue to weigh on investor sentiment. Externally, volatile oil prices and the persistence of global trade disputes add layers of uncertainty that Nigeria cannot fully control.
Yet, within this complex environment, the signs of stabilization and reform point to an economy that is gradually transitioning from volatility to cautious optimism. The second half of 2025, Norrenberger suggests, represents an opportunity to consolidate the fragile gains of the past six months. For policymakers, the priority will be to sustain reforms, manage inflation, and balance monetary policy with growth objectives. For investors, the focus will be on navigating the evolving macroeconomic landscape with prudence and foresight.
In sum, the first half of 2025 has set the stage for a critical second half. Nigeria has begun to steady itself after a turbulent period, and while the road ahead is far from smooth, the recalibration of the economy signals the potential for a more sustainable growth trajectory if reforms are sustained and global conditions allow.
GDP Performance
Nigeria’s economy in the first half of 2025 has been marked by resilience and a steady departure from the turbulence that defined 2023 and much of 2024. According to the H2 2025 Norrenberger Economic Outlook, economic activity has not only stabilized but is showing early signs of recovery, supported by stronger business sentiment and a more accommodative environment for investment.
One of the clearest indicators of this turnaround has been the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which averaged 51.75 points in the first half of the year. This represents a significant improvement compared to the 2024 average of 47.89 points, a level that reflected contractionary conditions. By moving above the 50-point threshold, the PMI points to expansionary business activity and rising confidence across the manufacturing and services sectors. For many firms, this has translated into better production outlooks, stronger sales, and a cautiously optimistic approach to investment planning.
Norrenberger projects that Nigeria’s real GDP will expand by an average of 4.05% in 2025, a pace of growth that suggests the economy is gradually rediscovering momentum. This forecast excludes the potential positive effects of the recently concluded GDP rebasing exercise, which is expected to reveal new drivers of economic expansion by more accurately capturing the contributions of fast-growing industries such as fintech, creative services, and renewable energy.
A closer look at the sectoral composition of growth highlights several areas of strength that are expected to sustain Nigeria’s recovery in the months ahead.
Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economy, not only as a source of food security but also as a major employer. The sector has benefitted from favorable weather conditions in the first half of 2025, leading to stronger harvests and improved rural incomes. Continued government interventions, particularly in the areas of input distribution and mechanization, are expected to further enhance productivity. However, structural issues such as inadequate storage, poor transport infrastructure, and insecurity in farming communities remain potential constraints.
The telecommunications sector has sustained its position as one of the fastest-growing segments of the economy. Revenue gains have been supported by recent tariff adjustments, which have allowed service providers to better manage rising operating costs while investing in network expansion. The sector is also benefiting from surging demand for data services, driven by the expansion of digital platforms, fintech adoption, and remote working trends. Analysts believe that the sector’s growth will continue to be underpinned by innovation, particularly in areas like 5G deployment, mobile banking, and digital commerce.
The construction sector has emerged as another key growth driver, buoyed by large-scale government investments in roads, rail, and energy infrastructure. These projects not only create direct employment opportunities but also stimulate demand across related industries such as cement, steel, and logistics. The outlook suggests that infrastructure spending will remain robust in the second half of the year, with projects targeted at bridging Nigeria’s longstanding infrastructure deficit and enhancing the business environment.
Monetary policy will remain a decisive factor in shaping Nigeria’s growth prospects. With inflation easing to 22.22% by June 2025, speculation has grown that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may begin to reduce its benchmark interest rate from the current 27.5% in order to stimulate borrowing and investment. Should such a policy shift occur in the second half of the year, it could unlock additional momentum in the private sector by reducing the cost of credit. However, the timing and extent of any rate adjustments will depend on inflationary trends and the broader macroeconomic environment.
On the fiscal side, the passage of four major tax reform bills in H1 2025 has set the stage for improved revenue mobilization and fiscal sustainability. If effectively implemented, these reforms will provide the government with greater resources to finance infrastructure, social programs, and security operations, all of which are critical to sustaining growth. However, the challenge of enforcing compliance and tackling widespread tax evasion remains a formidable hurdle.
While the projected GDP growth rate of 4.05% signals optimism, structural challenges continue to cast a shadow over Nigeria’s medium-term prospects. Infrastructure gaps, insecurity in parts of the country, a large informal economy, and persistent foreign exchange volatility remain critical issues that must be addressed to ensure that growth is both sustainable and inclusive.
Outlook for the Remainder of 2025
Two months into the second half of 2025 unfolds, Nigeria’s growth prospects will hinge on the interplay between domestic reforms and external conditions. If favorable weather continues, agricultural output is expected to remain strong, providing both food security and export potential. The telecommunications and banking sectors are positioned for sustained expansion, while construction is set to benefit from public infrastructure spending.
However, the outlook is not without risks. Rising global trade tensions, oil price volatility, and potential delays in policy implementation could dampen momentum. Nonetheless, the overarching message of the Norrenberger Outlook is that Nigeria’s economy is on a firmer footing compared to the previous two years, with multiple growth drivers beginning to align in support of recovery.
In effect, the first half of 2025 has laid the foundation for a more promising second half. The key challenge for policymakers will be to build on this fragile progress, deepen reforms, and ensure that the benefits of growth extend across the wider population.
Foreign Exchange Outlook
Nigeria’s foreign exchange market has experienced a measure of stability in the first half of 2025, buoyed by improved inflows and a relatively favorable balance of payments position. According to the Norrenberger H2 2025 Economic Outlook, recent gains have been driven by a mix of renewed foreign portfolio investment (FPI), steady diaspora remittances, and a stronger current account balance supported by non-oil exports. Together, these factors have provided some breathing space for policymakers who have spent the last two years contending with acute FX shortages and the persistent volatility of the naira.
The turnaround in FX inflows has been attributed largely to the re-entry of foreign portfolio investors into the Nigerian market. Higher interest rates, which stood at 27.5% through the first half of the year, created attractive yields for investors seeking returns in emerging markets. This was complemented by resilient remittance inflows from Nigerians abroad, which have consistently provided a lifeline to households and a steady stream of foreign exchange into the economy.
Equally significant has been Nigeria’s current account performance. With oil production gradually stabilizing and non-oil exports gaining traction, the trade position has improved, providing further support to external reserves. These combined inflows have helped calm the FX market, easing speculative pressures and narrowing the premium between official and parallel market exchange rates.
Yet, Norrenberger cautions that the sustainability of these inflows is far from guaranteed. As the economy transitions into the second half of the year, several headwinds could undermine the naira’s stability and test the durability of recent improvements.
Risks in the Second Half of 2025
One major risk stems from the anticipated shift in Nigeria’s monetary policy stance. With inflation showing signs of moderation, there is growing speculation that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) could begin easing interest rates in the coming months. While this would support domestic lending and economic growth, it could reduce the appeal of naira-denominated assets for foreign investors, thereby dampening portfolio inflows.
Seasonal demand for FX also looms as a potential source of pressure. The summer months typically see a spike in demand for foreign exchange as Nigerians travel abroad and make tuition payments for foreign education. This seasonal factor, long recognized by market participants, could once again stretch FX supply and put pressure on the naira.
Beyond domestic factors, external risks remain considerable. The return of protectionist trade policies in the United States under President Donald Trump has already led to the reimposition of tariffs on several countries. This shift has supported the strength of the U.S. dollar, with ripple effects across global currency markets. For emerging economies like Nigeria, a stronger dollar often translates into depreciation pressures on local currencies, making it more expensive to service external debt and import critical goods.
In response to these challenges, Nigerian authorities have rolled out several measures aimed at stabilizing the FX market and shoring up liquidity. A landmark achievement came in 2024, when the federal government raised over $900 million through its first-ever domestic USD-denominated bond issuance. The success of the issuance underscored investor confidence in Nigeria’s reform trajectory and created a fresh avenue for mobilizing foreign exchange domestically.
Policymakers have also taken steps to curb arbitrage opportunities within the FX market, a long-standing issue that has undermined investor confidence and drained liquidity. By narrowing the spread between official and parallel market rates and enhancing transparency in FX transactions, both fiscal and monetary authorities are seeking to create a more predictable environment for businesses and investors.
Efforts to attract longer-term capital inflows, particularly through foreign direct investment (FDI), also form part of the broader strategy. While portfolio flows can provide quick relief, they are often volatile and highly sensitive to changes in interest rates or risk perception. By contrast, FDI in areas such as energy, manufacturing, and infrastructure offers a more stable and sustainable source of FX. However, attracting such investments will require improvements in security, infrastructure, and the ease of doing business.
Outlook: A Managed Stability for the Naira
Despite the risks, Norrenberger projects that the naira will trade within a relatively stable band of N1,500–N1,600 per U.S. dollar in the near term. This outlook is underpinned by ongoing reforms, targeted interventions in the FX market, and steady inflows from remittances and exports. Policymakers are expected to continue striking a delicate balance between ensuring sufficient liquidity and maintaining investor confidence, even as they prepare for a potential easing cycle in monetary policy.
The forecast suggests that while the naira will not be entirely shielded from volatility, Nigeria’s proactive measures and diversified inflow channels will help prevent sharp depreciation episodes. For businesses and investors, this signals a more predictable environment in which to plan, even if structural challenges persist.
Ultimately, the path of the naira in the second half of 2025 will depend on the interplay of domestic reforms, external risks, and global financial conditions. A stable exchange rate remains critical not only for macroeconomic stability but also for restoring public and investor confidence in Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
Inflation and Price Stability
After nearly two years of unrelenting price surges that eroded household incomes and strained business operations, inflation in Nigeria is showing long-awaited signs of easing. According to the H2 2025 Norrenberger Economic Outlook, the moderation observed in the first half of the year reflects both technical adjustments following the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and genuine improvements in underlying price dynamics across key sectors of the economy.
The rebasing of the CPI in early 2025 marked a turning point in how inflation is measured in Nigeria. By updating the basket of goods and services to reflect current consumption patterns, the exercise provided a more accurate measure of price trends. The immediate impact was a sharp reduction in the official inflation rate from 34.8% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January 2025. While this decline partly reflected a statistical effect, it also coincided with emerging signs of cooling price pressures in both food and core components of inflation.
Since January, the overall trajectory has been downward, with food inflation — historically the most volatile element — showing gradual moderation as improved harvests and better distribution networks eased supply constraints. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, also trended lower, suggesting that the price moderation extended beyond seasonal factors. A brief uptick in March reflected temporary supply bottlenecks and higher energy costs, but the overall pattern remained consistent with easing inflationary pressures.
Several factors have come to support the current disinflationary trend. One of the most significant contributors to the declining inflation rate is the statistical high base effect. Prices had surged dramatically in 2024 due to currency depreciation, subsidy removals, and supply chain disruptions. As 2025 progresses, the year-on-year comparison is against an elevated base, making current increases appear less dramatic and pushing the inflation rate lower.
Relative stability in the naira has also helped contain imported inflation. With the currency trading in a more predictable band of N1,500–N1,600 per U.S. dollar, businesses and households have been able to plan better, and speculative pressures have reduced. The narrowing gap between official and parallel market rates has further bolstered confidence, limiting arbitrage-driven price distortions.
Favorable weather conditions in the first half of the year boosted harvests, improving food availability and reducing upward pressure on prices. Government support through input distribution programs and private sector investment in storage and logistics has further contributed to easing food inflation, though challenges remain in conflict-prone regions.
Looking ahead, Norrenberger expects headline inflation to continue its downward trajectory through the remainder of 2025. This expectation is anchored on several reinforcing dynamics. First, the high base effect will continue to temper year-on-year inflation figures for much of the year. Second, the anticipated decline in interest rates could reduce borrowing costs for businesses, thereby easing cost-push pressures on consumer goods. Third, seasonal harvests in the second half of the year are projected to further stabilize food supplies.
The implications of a lower inflation environment are significant for both consumers and policymakers. For households, slower price increases translate into some relief for purchasing power, even if wages have yet to fully catch up with past inflation. For businesses, reduced cost pressures improve margins and create room for expansion. For policymakers, lower inflation provides the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with the flexibility to adjust interest rates downward to stimulate growth without risking runaway price increases.
For the second half of 2025, the Norrenberger Outlook presents cautious optimism: inflation is easing, but the journey toward price stability is not yet complete. For ordinary Nigerians, this trend offers a measure of hope that the relentless surge in the cost of living may finally be slowing. For investors and businesses, it signals a more predictable environment in which to plan. And for policymakers, it creates the opportunity to recalibrate monetary and fiscal policies toward long-term growth and stability.
Monetary Policy Rate – Holding Steady
The first half of 2025 marked a subtle but significant shift in the monetary policy stance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). After a year of aggressive tightening in 2024, which saw the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) raised by a cumulative 875 basis points, the apex bank adopted a more measured “hold” approach in H1 2025. The MPR was retained at 27.5%, the highest in Nigeria’s history, underscoring the CBN’s determination to anchor inflation expectations while avoiding unnecessary policy shocks that could derail the fragile economic recovery.
The decision to pause rate hikes from September 2024 reflected a recalibration of policy priorities. By then, the initial objectives of curbing runaway inflation, stabilizing the volatile exchange rate, and making naira-denominated assets more attractive to foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had begun to yield results. Inflationary pressures were easing, the foreign exchange market was relatively more stable, and improved investor sentiment had boosted demand for Nigerian debt instruments. Against this backdrop, the CBN chose to allow the effects of past tightening measures to filter through the economy rather than introduce additional shocks.
Lending trends in the financial system illustrate the delicate balancing act at play. Credit to the private sector contracted only marginally by 0.3% to N77.8 trillion in H1 2025, a sign of resilience despite the record-high interest environment. By contrast, credit to the government declined by 7.6% to N25.1 trillion, reflecting fiscal adjustments and the administration’s stated commitment to reducing domestic borrowing pressures. Nonetheless, system liquidity remained abundant, averaging N248.5 billion in the first six months of the year, even as the CBN deployed a variety of open market operations to mop up excess liquidity.
This paradox of tight interest rates coexisting with structural liquidity surpluses reveals the persistent challenges within Nigeria’s monetary framework. On the one hand, the apex bank has sought to hold the line on inflation; on the other, excess liquidity continues to test the effectiveness of its policy signals. Added to this is the enduring impact of external sector dynamics—particularly crude oil price fluctuations, capital flow patterns, and exchange rate pressures—which exert significant influence on domestic monetary conditions.
Recent inflation data, however, has given policymakers some comfort. The headline rate has been on a gradual decline, supported by tighter monetary conditions, improved foreign exchange liquidity, relative stability in the naira, and moderating food prices. This trend suggests that the worst of the inflationary cycle may have passed, opening the door for more accommodative measures in the months ahead.
Looking forward, Norrenberger projects that the CBN could initiate a cautious pivot by the second half of 2025. With inflation easing and the economy still grappling with sluggish growth in non-oil sectors, the case for modest rate cuts is strengthening. Lower borrowing costs would help unlock credit channels, stimulate consumer spending, and encourage private sector investment—factors critical to building momentum in domestic growth.
That said, the transition will not be abrupt. Barring any unforeseen external shocks, such as a sharp fall in oil prices or sudden disruptions in global financial markets, the CBN is likely to adopt a gradualist approach. Norrenberger anticipates at least two moderate rate cuts totaling around 200 basis points before the end of 2025. Such a move would represent a careful balancing act: signaling confidence in inflation containment while simultaneously boosting economic recovery prospects.
In essence, the current monetary policy trajectory illustrates the CBN’s cautious optimism. Having stabilized key macroeconomic variables through aggressive tightening, the institution is now preparing the ground for a potential pivot toward growth-friendly policies. The challenge, however, will be ensuring that this shift does not reignite inflationary pressures or destabilize the nascent stability in the foreign exchange market.
Commodities – Oil Fragility, Cocoa Windfall, and Precious Metals Rally
Commodities have once again proven to be the defining variable in Nigeria’s economic narrative, shaping fiscal revenues, foreign exchange earnings, and investment flows. The first half of 2025 has already underscored the extent to which both traditional and non-traditional commodities influence macroeconomic stability. As the country looks ahead to the remainder of the year, the interplay between oil fragility, cocoa windfalls, and the global rally in precious metals will be central to Nigeria’s external balance and growth prospects.
The global oil market enters the second half of 2025 in a precarious balance. On paper, the fundamentals suggest a well-supplied market, with U.S. shale output, OPEC+ production discipline, and slowing demand growth in major economies acting as stabilizing forces. Yet the geopolitical environment remains tense, creating the possibility of sudden disruptions that could upend equilibrium. Conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, alongside maritime security concerns in the Red Sea and Gulf of Guinea, have kept traders wary.
In the absence of major disruptions, prices are likely to face downward pressure, reflecting a structural softness in global demand. Energy transition dynamics continue to reshape consumption patterns, with efficiency gains and renewable adoption tempering long-term demand projections. For Nigeria, this scenario carries both risk and opportunity. Lower oil prices could weigh on government revenues and external reserves, yet stability in supply may help reduce volatility in the foreign exchange market, giving policymakers room to consolidate reforms.
While oil remains dominant, the real story of H1 2025 has been cocoa. Prices surged to historic highs early in the year, peaking at $10,888 per tonne in January, before moderating to $8,101 per tonne by June. Even at reduced levels, cocoa remains one of the world’s most expensive soft commodities, and Nigeria has benefitted immensely. Export earnings soared by 220% year-on-year to N1.23 trillion, marking the highest quarterly cocoa revenue in national history.
This surge has implications far beyond foreign exchange. Cocoa earnings provide a rare opportunity to strengthen Nigeria’s diversification drive, offering a critical buffer against oil market volatility. Increased revenues have the potential to stimulate rural economies, expand job creation, and fortify agricultural value chains—cornerstones of long-term resilience.
However, the gains are not guaranteed. Structural challenges within Nigeria’s cocoa sector, including aging trees, weak farmer financing, and inadequate logistics, remain formidable obstacles. Moreover, global market dynamics are shifting. Demand destruction is emerging as chocolate manufacturers cut back usage and explore reformulations to offset high costs. On the supply side, the outlook hinges on the mid-crop harvests in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana, alongside prospects for the 2025/26 season. A recurrence of adverse weather, disease outbreaks, or regulatory hurdles—such as compliance with the European Union’s deforestation rules—could quickly reignite price volatility.
For Nigeria, the priority will be to use this window wisely: investing in modernizing production, improving farmer welfare, and boosting processing capacity to move further up the value chain.
The precious metals complex has delivered a standout performance in 2025, with gold leading the charge. Building on momentum from late 2024, gold prices accelerated through the first half of the year, driven by persistent geopolitical tensions, escalating trade frictions, and robust central bank demand. As nations diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar, gold’s role as a hedge has become more pronounced.
The bullish sentiment has spilled into related markets. Silver gained 24% in H1 2025, benefiting from its dual appeal as both an industrial and precious metal, particularly amid rising demand from solar panel manufacturing. Platinum delivered an even sharper rally of 48%, reflecting strong investor appetite and tightening supply conditions.
The outlook for the second half of 2025 remains broadly positive. Continued geopolitical instability, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, alongside concerns over global trade disruptions, should sustain gold’s safe-haven appeal. At the same time, structural demand from technology and green industries is likely to keep silver and platinum prices buoyant.
Nigeria’s Commodity Crossroads
For Nigeria, the closeness of fragile oil markets, a cocoa-driven windfall, and a booming precious metals landscape offers both promise and complexity. The oil sector continues to underpin fiscal stability, but its vulnerability underscores the need to strengthen non-oil exports. Cocoa has emerged as a credible vehicle for diversification, but without structural reforms, the opportunity may be fleeting. Meanwhile, precious metals—though less directly relevant to Nigeria’s exports—signal broader global investment trends that could shape capital flows into emerging markets.
In H2 2025, policymakers and investors alike will need to navigate this commodity crossroad with care. The challenge lies not only in managing volatility but also in transforming cyclical windfalls into long-term structural gains.
Sectors to Watch in H2 2025
Key sectors expected to drive momentum in the second half of 2025 include agriculture, telecommunications, entertainment, trade, banking and insurance, as well as oil refining. Agriculture is likely to benefit from seasonal harvests and targeted government interventions aimed at improving food security. The telecommunications sector remains a strong growth engine, supported by rising mobile penetration, digital services expansion, and sustained investment in broadband infrastructure.
Entertainment is projected to maintain its upward trajectory, propelled by Nigeria’s expanding creative economy and growing global footprint in music, film, and digital streaming platforms. Trade activities should be bolstered by relative currency stability, improved FX liquidity, and consumer spending recovery, while the banking and insurance industries are expected to leverage regulatory reforms and digital innovation to deepen financial inclusion and credit expansion.
Oil refining stands out as a potential game changer for Nigeria’s external sector performance, with the ramp-up of domestic refining capacity expected to reduce import dependence and strengthen the country’s balance of payments position.
While the road to full economic normalization remains gradual, the overall outlook for H2 2025 is cautiously optimistic. With stabilizing macroeconomic indicators, policymakers and investors are presented with a window of opportunity to consolidate the gains recorded so far and navigate the evolving landscape with measured foresight.
The intricate web of illicit financial flows draining Africa’s wealth, focusing particularly on trade mis-invoicing, the role of multinational corporations, regulatory shortcomings, the Nigerian dimension, and efforts by regional and international stakeholders to address the crisis, was the focus of Nigerian government officials, international agencies, experts in Abuja last week. Through data analysis, expert insights, and country-specific cases, the conference exposed the scale and mechanics of the problem, the socio-economic costs, and the uphill battle to plug the holes in Africa’s financial bucket. Assistant Editor, Nduka Chiejina reports.
Over the past five decades, Africa has watched helplessly as trillions of dollars slipped quietly across its borders, vanishing into global financial systems through illegal, corrupt, or legally grey channels. These unrecorded financial outflows, termed illicit financial flows (IFFs), now represent one of the most significant threats to sustainable development and economic sovereignty on the continent.
According to recent estimates, Africa has lost over $1 trillion to illicit financial flows over the last 50 years. This staggering figure eclipses the amount the continent has received in foreign aid and development assistance during the same period. Within this broader landscape, West Africa—of which Nigeria is a critical economic hub—together with North Africa, reportedly lost $407 billion in just a decade (2010–2020), largely due to trade mis-invoicing. This practice, which involves deliberately falsifying the value, quantity, or quality of goods in cross-border transactions, remains a powerful conduit for capital flight, tax evasion, and erosion of national revenues.
Trade mis-invoicing is only one of many forms of illicit outflows. Others include money laundering, transfer pricing manipulation by multinational corporations, embezzlement of public funds, abuse of export subsidies, and criminal networks operating across porous borders. These mechanisms often exploit weak regulatory environments, gaps in enforcement, and lack of coordination between African governments and the global financial architecture.
For Nigeria, the economic consequences are profound. As Africa’s most populous nation and its largest economy, Nigeria is not only vulnerable to IFFs but also bears a disproportionate share of the burden. Billions of dollars in potential tax revenue, infrastructure investment, and public services are lost annually to a combination of corporate complicity, institutional failure, and opaque financial systems.
The issue has gained heightened attention among policymakers, economists, and development institutions. International bodies such as the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), the African Union (AU), the African Development Bank (AfDB), and global watchdogs like the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) have all stressed the urgent need to curtail illicit outflows. The High-Level Panel on IFFs from Africa, chaired by former South African President Thabo Mbeki, has repeatedly warned that unless concerted action is taken, these financial haemorrhages will continue to stunt Africa’s development.
Yet, while the figures are jarring, IFFs are notoriously difficult to track. Their clandestine nature, coupled with the complicity of international financial centres, weakens the capacity of African countries to prosecute offenders or recover lost assets. In many cases, stolen funds are laundered through complex networks of shell companies, offshore accounts, and legal loopholes in tax havens. For Nigeria in particular, stemming the tide of illicit financial flows is not just a policy imperative—it is a moral and economic necessity.
Trade Mis-invoicing and the $407 Billion Drain
At the heart of Africa’s illicit financial flows crisis is the complex and often underregulated practice of trade mis-invoicing—a process where importers and exporters deliberately falsify the value, volume, or type of goods and services in international trade transactions. For West Africa and North Africa alone, this deceptive strategy accounted for a staggering $407 billion loss over a ten-year period, making it one of the most critical leakages in Africa’s economic pipeline.
In Nigeria, the implications are dire. The chairman of the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Dr. Zacch Adedeji, drew attention to the severe threat that illicit financial flows pose to the country’s fiscal stability. Speaking at the opening of a two-day national conference on IFFs organised by the FIRS, Adedeji described the volume of unrecorded financial outflows from Nigeria as not just an economic anomaly, but a structural crisis that erodes the very foundation of the nation’s development.
“The scale of these flows, especially through aggressive tax avoidance by multinationals exploiting opaque global arrangements, continues to threaten Nigeria’s fiscal stability,” he told participants drawn from local and international agencies. According to him, the situation demands more than technical discussions; it requires constructive collaboration and a shared resolve to revitalise Nigeria’s revenue system and economic architecture.
He said the scale of IFFs through channels like tax evasion, profit shifting, money laundering, and trade mis-invoicing is not merely about financial misconduct but constitutes a fundamental disruption to national progress. “Each unaccounted dollar undermines governance, erodes trust, and translates into lost infrastructure, inadequate public services, and deepening inequality,” Adedeji warned.
Trade mis-invoicing in Nigeria typically occurs in sectors with large volumes of cross-border transactions—especially extractives, oil and gas, agriculture, and manufacturing. In some cases, exporters under-invoice goods to reduce taxable income or hide profits in offshore accounts. Importers may over-invoice purchases to move capital out of Nigeria illegally or avoid customs duties, thereby depriving the government of critical revenue. These distortions are compounded by limited oversight, weak data-sharing mechanisms between customs and tax agencies, and an absence of real-time monitoring tools.
For Dr. Adedeji, the government’s response under the Renewed Hope Agenda must rise to the challenge. He pointed to President Bola Tinubu’s assent to four tax reform bills on June 26, 2025, as a sign of political will. “This administration is committed to overhauling our tax system, modernising the legal framework, and institutionalising transparency in revenue collection,” he said.
But legislation alone, he argued, is insufficient. “To deliver on its promise, we must reinforce enforcement, optimise digital compliance, and build public trust through fairness, predictability, and strategic communication.”
The FIRS, he disclosed, is executing a multi-dimensional response. Central to this strategy is an emphasis on voluntary compliance, fostered by tax education and simpler filing systems to promote a culture of trust rather than coercion. The second pillar involves leveraging technology and intelligence—notably through the establishment of a Tax Intelligence and Automation Department, which deploys real-time analytics, integrated third-party data, and anomaly detection tools to combat tax abuse and detect suspicious activities. “This is not just about digital infrastructure—but digital vigilance,” he explained.
The third and perhaps most ambitious part of the FIRS’ plan is the formation of a dedicated unit to confront IFFs directly. As the designated coordinating agency under the Proceeds of Crime Act (2022), FIRS has created the Proceeds of Crime Management and Illicit Financial Flows Coordination Directorate. This unit leads implementation efforts, supports asset recovery, and coordinates with law enforcement agencies, the judiciary, the private sector, and international development partners.
Trade mis-invoicing is often difficult to detect without access to global transaction data and cooperation from foreign jurisdictions. Therefore, Nigeria’s ability to respond effectively will depend in part on international partnerships and cross-border enforcement mechanisms. Adedeji’s remarks reflect a growing consensus that Nigeria cannot fight illicit flows in isolation. The architecture of IFFs is global, and so too must be the solution.
The spotlight remains firmly on the need to transform Nigeria’s tax and trade systems into engines of transparency, resilience, and growth. Adedeji believes that for a country urgently in need of domestic resource mobilisation, plugging the holes created by mis-invoicing and illicit flows may be the most sustainable path toward economic sovereignty.
Multinational Corporations and Global Complicity
While trade mis-invoicing remains one of the most visible conduits for illicit financial flows, a far more pervasive and institutionalised mechanism lies in the commercial practices of multinational corporations (MNCs) operating in Africa. These corporations, some with vast global footprints, routinely engage in aggressive tax avoidance schemes, often exploiting weak regulatory systems, complex international tax treaties, and financial secrecy jurisdictions to minimise their tax liabilities across the continent.
Honourable Irene Ovonji-Odida, a Ugandan lawyer and member of the Thabo Mbeki High-Level Panel on IFFs from Africa, said in her address at the national conference that commercial tax avoidance by multinationals accounts for a staggering 65 percent of all IFFs from Africa. She broke down the rest of the illicit flows to 30 percent from criminal activities, including smuggling and trafficking, and 5 percent from corruption, such as bribery of public officials.
Ovonji-Odida described the international financial architecture as systemically skewed against African countries, arguing that the global rules governing sectors such as law, accounting, banking, and auditing were largely shaped by Western powers to favour capital-exporting countries. These rules, she said, are not only opaque and unaccountable, but also entrench unequal power dynamics between the Global North and South.
“Indeed, the systems of key professions such as law, accounting, audit, banking, and other financial sectors are derived from Global North countries and, by shaping the very ethos and rules of important actors and activity within national and global economies, further entrenches the overall western thrust of the global economic and financial systems,” she stated.
Ovonji-Odida called for stronger collective action from African states, urging them to consolidate a common negotiating front on global tax reform. She also recommended that countries on the continent build a broader alliance with the Global South to push for reforms at the United Nations level, especially as international debates over taxation and revenue fairness continue to unfold.
For countries like Nigeria, the economic toll of multinationals’ practices is enormous. Dr. Doris Uzoka-Anite, Nigeria’s Minister of State for Finance, said that the country loses an estimated $18 billion annually to IFFs through profit shifting and aggressive tax avoidance. In her view, these funds—if retained—could significantly enhance the country’s fiscal capacity to fund infrastructure, education, healthcare, and other critical public services.
“These huge sums of money are transferred out of the country, which strips Nigeria of resources that could be used to finance much-needed public services,” she said.
Uzoka-Anite raised concerns over international tax treaties signed by Nigeria over the years, many of which, she argued, no longer reflect the country’s evolving development priorities or its new commitment to fiscal equity. “We must not lose sight of this, as there are many foreign companies transacting in Nigeria without paying adequate taxes,” she warned.
She advocated for a thorough review and renegotiation of Nigeria’s tax treaties to bring them in line with current economic realities, the new tax reform agenda, and the broader push for a fairer international tax system. According to her, Nigeria’s recent legal reforms—backed by the Tinubu administration—signal strong political will, but policy alignment and enforcement must follow suit across all levels of government.
The Minister also acknowledged FIRS’ role in leading the charge against IFFs, particularly through the deployment of modern technologies to track financial transactions, detect anomalies, and enforce compliance. She commended the Service’s shift to digital platforms, which she said is “making it increasingly difficult for companies and individuals to manipulate financial records or conceal taxable income.”
Multinational corporations often operate across multiple jurisdictions, taking advantage of transfer pricing loopholes, thin capitalisation arrangements, and intragroup invoicing to move profits to low- or zero-tax locations. These strategies, while often technically legal under international law, result in base erosion—a process where developing countries are left with very little taxable income despite hosting the bulk of the economic activity and associated risks.
Experts argue that the only sustainable way to counter these practices is through greater transparency, including the mandatory country-by-country reporting of profits and tax payments, the exchange of information between tax authorities, and stronger corporate governance standards for MNCs operating in Africa.
The complex web of IFFs linked to corporate behaviour is not simply a matter of taxation—it is one of accountability and fairness. Giving the continues rise in global trade, investment, and resource extraction, Nigeria must assert stronger control over its fiscal sovereignty.
Strengthening Enforcement and Regional Coordination
At the operational frontline of Nigeria’s efforts to stem illicit financial flows is the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS). Charged with monitoring the movement of goods, currency, and trade documents across the country’s porous borders, the agency has had its fair share of breakthroughs and frustrations. According to the Comptroller General of Customs, Bashir Adeniyi, the Service is constantly engaged in identifying suspicious activities, preventing illegal movements of currency and other instruments, and responding to the complexities surrounding IFFs.
Adeniyi recalled one of the agency’s most notable cases—a seizure of $8.3 million in cash at the Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos during his tenure as Area Comptroller. The funds, which were being smuggled out of the country without declaration, were intercepted in a well-coordinated intelligence operation. Yet, rather than commend the effort, the global anti-money laundering watchdog, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), raised an unexpected concern.
“When we asked FATF about the seizure, they told us they were more interested in money entering Nigeria than in cash leaving the country,” Adeniyi explained. “We’re still trying to understand the reasoning behind that position, especially given the implications of illicit outbound flows for our economy.”
For the Customs boss, that response reflects a deeper issue in global enforcement standards, one that can disadvantage African nations. “What we do in the enforcement environment is to ensure that the 30 percent of illicit financial flows attributed to criminal activity does not become 50 percent. We’re doing our part in Customs by monitoring cross-border movements of cash or instruments daily,” he added.
As Nigeria prepares for an upcoming FATF assessment, Adeniyi stressed the need for a whole-of-society approach, where Customs, tax authorities, anti-corruption agencies, financial regulators, and the judiciary work in unison to detect, deter, and prosecute illicit flows. “IFFs are simply too complex for any single institution to tackle in isolation,” he said.
Among the most troubling areas, he noted, is illegal mining, a sector rife with informal transactions and shadowy exports. “The major problem in Nigeria is associated with illegal mining and how the proceeds cross our borders. It’s a significant blind spot,” he warned. The United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) has been supporting efforts to plug some of these gaps, offering training and analytical tools to enforcement agencies.
One potential game-changer in Nigeria’s fight against IFFs, particularly trade-related flows, is the National Single Window (NSW) Project. Long anticipated, the NSW aims to create a digitally unified platform for all trade-related approvals, payments, and clearances. Once operational, the system is expected to reduce corruption, enhance transparency, and improve inter-agency coordination.
A core feature of the NSW is its ability to increase traceability by consolidating trade documentation on a single, automated platform. This would significantly limit human intervention—often a breeding ground for fraudulent activity—and provide real-time visibility into import and export processes. During a technical session on the project, experts explained how the NSW could help curb under-invoicing and over-invoicing, two key tactics used in trade mis-invoicing schemes.
“By integrating regulatory agencies and establishing a centralised risk management framework, the Single Window will enable better profiling of high-risk consignments, reduce duplication of inspections, and improve the integrity of customs declarations,” one expert explained.
Another benefit of the NSW is its capacity to facilitate cross-border data sharing. With trade increasingly transnational and digitally managed, the ability to exchange information with other countries in real time will be vital in identifying discrepancies in trade records, detecting round-tripping, and validating transaction values.
These reforms, however, face structural and political challenges. Legacy systems, entrenched interests, and capacity gaps within enforcement agencies have slowed implementation in the past. Yet, the urgency of the IFFs crisis and the government’s current momentum in tax and trade reform present a unique window of opportunity.
Disrupting Illicit Financial Flows with Data Intelligence and Inter-Agency Collaboration
In the battle against illicit financial flows, traditional enforcement strategies are no longer sufficient. The modern financial system is rapidly evolving—driven by digital payments, FinTech platforms, and decentralised financial instruments. This new ecosystem, while boosting financial inclusion and convenience, also creates unprecedented opportunities for illicit transactions to move undetected. Recognising this paradigm shift, Dr. Muhammad Jiya, Chief Operating Officer for Emerging Technologies and Innovations at the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), called for a radical overhaul of Nigeria’s approach to IFF detection and domestic resource mobilisation.
“Understanding IFFs in the digital era requires more than reaction—it demands prediction, integration, and innovation,” Jiya said at the national conference on combating IFFs. He argued that the traditional “follow-the-money” approach must now give way to predictive frameworks that can anticipate financial crimes before they occur.
For Jiya, the answer lies in real-time data access, cross-platform integration, and predictive analytics. “We must understand IFFs not as an isolated phenomenon but as part of a digital system that evolves as fast as the technology behind it,” he noted. To that end, institutions such as the NFIU and the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) must evolve into data-driven agencies—equipped not only to monitor activity but to forecast risk.
At the core of this strategy is a proposal for a joint NFIU-FIRS-FinTech Taskforce, which would facilitate shared access to critical datasets and deploy advanced analytics in monitoring tax-related financial activity. This taskforce, Jiya suggested, would operate with dedicated protocols for joint intelligence review, quarterly data-sharing assessments, and case triaging, ensuring that suspicious transactions are escalated efficiently to the appropriate enforcement channels.
Jiya’s believes there should be a shift from data collection to data activation—a transformation that requires not just infrastructure but a mindset change within Nigeria’s enforcement and tax authorities. “FinTechs must move from compliance-by-design to intelligence-by-design,” Jiya stressed, suggesting that technology companies can no longer be passive players in the financial system. Instead, they must be fully integrated into the national surveillance and compliance ecosystem.
Beyond strategy, Jiya highlighted ongoing collaboration between the NFIU and FIRS. He noted that the NFIU had helped identify high-net-worth individuals and corporate entities with suspicious income–asset gaps, trace undeclared offshore remittances, investigate illicit dividend payments, and uncover trade-based money laundering schemes often channelled through nominee accounts and digital investment platforms.
In several cases, intelligence generated by NFIU was escalated to both FIRS and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), leading to targeted tax audits and recovery of substantial unpaid revenues. Such coordination, Jiya said, not only closes gaps in enforcement but also enhances Nigeria’s capacity to respond swiftly to emerging financial risks.
To institutionalise this partnership, the NFIU has been providing technical support and joint training sessions for tax officers—training that focuses on the interpretation of financial intelligence, detection of income layering techniques, and effective use of data analytics tools in tax audits. This synergy is critical to bridging the intelligence gap between revenue mobilisation and financial surveillance.
Ultimately, the message from the NFIU is clear: If Nigeria is to disrupt illicit financial flows in a digitised world, it must outthink and outpace the actors behind them. That means investing in cutting-edge infrastructure, reimagining cross-agency collaboration, and treating data not just as a tool—but as a strategic asset in the country’s fiscal security.
As Dr. Jiya aptly put it, “A predictive framework is not a luxury; it is a necessity for safeguarding Nigeria’s financial future and domestic resource mobilisation goals.”
Tracking Illicit Financial Flows: Nigeria Grapples with Data, Enforcement Gaps
Despite increasing national and global attention on illicit financial flows (IFFs), Nigeria continues to face serious limitations in effectively measuring and tracking such outflows.
According to a joint presentation by Andrew Onyeanakwe and Dr. Paulinus Iyika, titled Nigeria’s Experience in the Measurement and Tracking of Illicit Financial Flows: Achievements and Challenges, one of the most pressing issues is the absence of a robust data collection mechanism. While some progress has been made in tracking customs-related fraud and profit-shifting, comprehensive and reliable data on all categories of IFFs—particularly those linked to tax evasion and commercial transactions—remain largely unavailable.
The presentation also pointed to a perceived lack of trust among government agencies, which makes information sharing difficult and slows down collective progress. They stressed that while institutional frameworks exist, the effectiveness of these bodies is hindered by weak collaboration, limited technological infrastructure, and the absence of coordinated enforcement.
Efforts to conduct large-scale surveys and investigations are often constrained by inadequate financial, human, and technical resources. Additionally, the presenters noted that Nigeria’s large informal economy continues to pose a significant challenge to accurately tracing financial transactions and estimating the scale of IFFs.
To address these issues, the report recommended a comprehensive national risk assessment of IFF vulnerabilities and called for the integration of data systems across key institutions such as the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU), and the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), among others.
They also proposed a national review of data availability and legal frameworks, which would consider how data is collected, stored, shared, and protected. Furthermore, the report urged the Nigerian government to leverage international collaboration and technological innovations to enhance its capacity to detect and curb illicit flows.
He said it is capable of transforming the rural economies and fueling significant export growth.
Currently, Global coconut production is significant, with total output estimated to be over 59 million tonnes annually.
Nigeria ranks 19th among coconut-producing nations, with an annual production of approximately 224,186 metric tonnes.
Speaking with The Nation, Iyama noted that the increasing global and domestic demand for coconut to be used in a diverse range of products, is creating an unprecedented boom, with projections indicating continued expansion in the coming years.
While traditional products like copra and crude coconut oil (CNO) remain significant, he indicated that the market has seen exponential growth in “non-traditional” products.
He explained that the cosmetic and personal care industry is another significant consumer of coconut derivatives.
Recently, the Lagos State Government s reaffirmed its commitment to supporting farmers in tapping into the rapidly growing global coconut yoghurt market, currently valued at $102.01 million and projected to reach $302.32 million by 2031.
Speaking with The Nation, the Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Systems, Abisola Olusanya, emphasised the government’s dedication to boosting coconut production in the state. She noted that the rising demand for coconut yoghurt —driven by its thick texture, higher protein content, and appeal to health-conscious consumers— presents a lucrative opportunity for local farmers.
The coconut yoghurt industry is a fast-expanding segment of the plant-based dairy alternatives market. Consumers increasingly seek dairy-free and lactose-free products, fueling the demand for this commodity. With its nutritional benefits and alignment with evolving dietary trends, it has become a preferred choice for individuals prioritising muscle recovery and overall health.
To capitalise on this market opportunity, the Lagos State Coconut Development Authority has initiated a statewide coconut tree planting program across housing estates. Olusanya stated that the initiative aims to enhance coconut production and position Lagos as a major supplier in the global coconut yoghurt value chain.
“The state government is ensuring that farmers have access to high-quality coconut planting materials. We are determined to reclaim Lagos’ position as a leading producer of high-quality coconuts,” she said.
The Lagos government is also investing in capacity-building programs for coconut farmers. Through training on Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), farmers are being equipped with modern, sustainable techniques to improve productivity.
As part of its broader coconut industry development strategy, the state government last year released N250 million to implement a five-year Coconut Value Chain Upgrade Strategy. This initiative, supported by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations, seeks to enhance the economic, social, and environmental sustainability of the coconut sector.
The five-year strategy was developed using the United Nations Agri-Food Systems Transformation Accelerator (ASTA), with a funding allocation of $4 million. Olusanya expressed optimism that the government’s efforts will not only boost local coconut farming but also strengthen Lagos’ footprint in the international coconut yoghurt market.
Recently, the Federal Government announced plans to significantly increase coconut production in the country to reach 500,000 metric tonnes (MT) this year, up from the current 224,186 MT. The Asia Pacific region currently dominates the global coconut products market, accounting for a substantial 34.76% of the market share in 2024.
Opinion Forum is using constructive debate to promote Nigeria’s commitment to achieving economic resilience in the face of global volatility created by trade wars, and macroeconomic variables.
The forum, which is quietly but steadily emerging into a formidable voice for civic empowerment and policy dialogue in Nigeria, recently marked its 10th anniversary with a symposium in Lagos with theme: “Trump Trade Wars, Naira Devaluation: Risks and Opportunities for Nigerian Enterprises.”
It presented opportunity for business leaders, policymakers and civic thinkers to engage with Nigeria’s most pressing economic questions: How do we build resilience in an age of perpetual crisis? And how can Nigerian enterprises transform global volatility into strategic advantage?
Founder of Opinion Forum and United States-based physician, Dr Afolabi Tiamiyu, recounted the organisation’s beginnings in 2015.
“We founded Opinion Forum to create a space for fact-based national conversations that empower citizens to make informed choices,” he said. “Today is not about looking back but about setting an agenda for the future, one where civic engagement is driven by knowledge rather than noise.”
Group Managing Director of Sterling Bank, Abubakar Suleiman, dissected the roots of global trade tensions beyond headlines and tariff disputes. Suleiman argued that what we call trade wars are symptoms of a deeper economic model fixated on short-term gains. “The trade wars we see today are expressions of a broader frustration with economic models that prioritise immediate profitability at the expense of long-term resilience. Nigerian enterprises must look beyond quarterly returns and embrace strategies that safeguard their future in a shifting global market,” he remarked..
Chairman of Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) and Managing Partner at Verraki (member of Andersen Consulting), Niyi Yusuf, further emphasised the inevitability of crises in a globalised economy. “Volatility is here to stay. The question is not whether disruptions will happen, but whether we are prepared to turn them into opportunities,” he noted.
He pointed to frameworks such as African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) as key vehicles for unlocking new markets and reducing Nigeria’s dependence on foreign exchange fluctuations.
Beyond the policy and economic discourse, the Opinion Forum used the occasion to reaffirm its commitment to social responsibility as it is currently raising funds for a planned outreach to Massey Street Children’s Hospital on Lagos Island.
Over the past decade, the Opinion Forum has carved a niche as a non-partisan, citizen-driven platform dedicated to fostering inclusive governance, promoting the rule of law, and advancing social development. Through policy dialogues, public awareness campaigns, and direct community interventions, the organisation has continually demonstrated that civic engagement must be both intellectual and practical.
Looking ahead, the Opinion Forum intends to deepen its policy advocacy, expand its research capabilities, and scale up its social initiatives nationwide. As Nigeria continues to confront inflationary pressures, currency devaluation, and an unpredictable global order, the importance of platforms like Opinion Forum becomes even more pronounced.
As Nigeria seeks sustainable pathways to grow its economy, experts have stressed the urgent need for its leaders to prioritise three critical infrastructures: reliable electricity, clean water, and strong internet connectivity.
Speaking at the Power & Water Nigeria 2025 Exhibition and the IoT West Africa Conference, held this week at the Balmoral Convention Centre in Lagos, stakeholders emphasised that these services have moved beyond being basic needs—they are now fundamental drivers of development, job creation, and business expansion.
The three-day event drew participants from across the globe, including technology innovators, government officials, and private sector leaders. Together, they explored how integrated smart solutions in the power, water, and digital sectors can serve as a foundation for national progress.
Attendees were treated to a showcase of innovative products, such as solar-powered water pumps, intelligent electricity meters, and advanced internet technologies—all designed to improve daily life and economic opportunities for Nigerians.
Meher Bedi, Director of Exhibitions at Vertex Next, the event’s organiser, underscored the connection between the three sectors.
“Power, water, and internet are all interlinked. By improving them together, we can accelerate Nigeria’s development and create a more robust economy,” she said.
“When you have stable electricity, clean water, and fast internet, everything from education to business works better,” she said. “It helps people live better and helps the economy grow.”
“This event acknowledges the interdependence between energy infrastructure and digital services. Promoting reliable and sustainable power solutions directly supports the growth of data centres across Africa. Discussions at the conference often highlight the need for energy-efficient practices in data centre operations, aligning with the continent’s digital transformation goals.”
One of the event’s highlights was how digital tools can improve electricity. Tunji Alabi of Infratel Africa explained how smart grids, systems that fix faults automatically, can keep electricity flowing even during technical issues.
Dr. Bala Tyoden from the Rural Electrification Agency also spoke about how IoT (Internet of Things) technology is helping them track solar power systems and mini-grids in real-time. This helps the government know exactly how much energy is being produced and used, making it easier to plan and improve services.
“Before now, it was hard to monitor what was happening in remote areas,” Tyoden said. “But now, with smart sensors, we can see the full picture and take faster action.”
It’s not just about power. Access to clean water remains a major issue in many communities. New tech on display, such as solar-powered water pumps, shows how clean water can reach more homes and farms without relying on diesel generators.
At the same time, strong internet infrastructure is opening up more opportunities for businesses, especially in the digital space. Speakers from 9mobile and other tech firms explained how faster internet allows small businesses to reach more customers, use better tools, and offer new services.
The event also hosted the Data Centre & Cloud Expo Africa, which focuses on building the facilities that store and power internet services. These data centres are vital for Nigeria’s digital transformation, but they also need steady electricity to run.
“Digital services and power go hand in hand,” Meher Bedi said. “You can’t build a modern economy without both.”
Dr. Aristotle Onumo from NITDA added that IoT technology could help Nigeria develop smart cities, improve healthcare, and grow e-commerce. But he warned that for this to happen, governments must support new technologies with the right policies.
“IoT West Africa serves as a catalyst for Nigeria’s digital transformation by showcasing game-changing technologies and innovations. It provides a platform for businesses to explore the latest developments and best practices in IoT, AI, and cloud computing. The event facilitates knowledge exchange, networking, and partnerships, enabling Nigerian businesses to adapt to digitally reliant operating models and stay ahead in the fast-paced digital landscape,” Bedi added.
The event showed that with the right investments in energy, water, and internet, Nigeria can build a more connected, productive, and prosperous future.
“This isn’t just about gadgets,” said Bedi. “It’s about using technology in smart ways to solve real problems, and to give Nigerians a better quality of life.”
“Just as Christ triumphed over death,” President Bola Ahmed Tinubu said to his fellow Nigerians in his Easter message this year, “so too shall our country triumph over every challenge we face … The present moment may be cloudy, but it will usher in a glorious day.”
It was both a prayer and a promise – a promise whose imminent fulfillment, like the sun on resurrection morning, is slowly but relentlessly peeking through the clouds of present adversity.
No Nigerian citizen, or observer of Nigeria, who is alive today would deny that the last two years have been eventful – even dramatic – in terms of actions taken and policies implemented by the Tinubu-led administration, as well as their effects on the nation’s socio-economic outlook. Since the inception of the administration in May 2023, it has embarked on a flurry of activities designed not just to facilitate the country’s recovery from the current economic downturn, but to reset its fundamentals in a manner that ensures sustainable growth in the medium and long term.
It is only natural, of course – in the face of so many dashed hopes over the years – for the average Nigerian to be skeptical about the actions or pronouncements of any government. But the facts about Nigeria’s gradual but steady economic turnaround under President Tinubu are becoming harder and harder to ignore. Assessments by analysts (individual and corporate alike, including local and international think tanks) showing key economic indicators on the tangible impact of the Tinubu administration’s policy direction are not only incontrovertible, they paint a picture of steady recovery and renewed investor confidence. From the emerging pattern of the economy since the introduction of the reforms two years ago, analysts are noting a cautiously optimistic outlook in many sectors of the national economy. In two years, they agree, the Tinubu administration – through a combination of bold reforms and strategic decision-making – is orchestrating a positive redirection in Nigeria’s economic trajectory.
Critics may question the administration’s timelines or doubt its methods, but for a growing number of discerning Nigerians, there is an undeniable shift in tone and substance going on, and it is one that recognizes that progress – while often painfully slow – is real when it is built on the foundations of competence, clarity, and conviction.
This combination of qualities is evident in the following indicators of progress, as currently being tracked by economic and financial analysts and watchers of the administration, as well as on the proverbial ‘streets’:
Soaring domestic crude refining capacity: Prior to May 29, 2023, multiple subsidies, especially on fuel imports, drained Nigeria’s treasury and forced the country to borrow to sustain them. But President Tinubu’s decisions (to end fuel subsidies and liberalize the foreign exchange market), as unpopular as they were, are rewriting the narrative of the country’s economic trajectory. The removal of subsidies has enabled local refineries, such as the Dangote and Port Harcourt refineries, to produce at competitive market prices and help reduce reliance on imports. Not only that, the President facilitated a deal to enable Dangote in particular obtain domestic crude oil priced in naira. Thanks to the competition in the deregulated oil sector, the price of PMS, which was sold at over N1200 per litre in late 2024, has steadily reduced to an average of N890 per litre and is expected to further reduce if current crude oil prices persist. Product scarcity is now history (as hoarding or smuggling of products to Nigeria’s neighbouring countries is no longer attractive).
Stabilization of the cost of living: No doubt, the initial economic headwinds occasioned by the removal of fuel subsidies and the currency exchange stabilization regime were severe, but because the President, like a focused ship’s captain, stayed the course and braved the storm, food prices have now eased – thanks in part to the Presidential Accelerated Stabilization Advancement Plan. Tinubu’s decision to open a 150-day duty-free window in July, 2024 for essential food imports contributed in stabilizing food prices, along with improved security across many agrarian communities, especially in the North West (where farmers abandoned their farms due to pervasive banditry), have seen foodstuff price reductions in the first quarter of 2025.
Recordinflow of revenue: The three tiers of government have witnessed a significant increase in revenue, enabling investments in infrastructure and social services at the grassroots and bringing governance closer to the people. The sanitization of the foreign exchange market by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has made the naira largely free from destructive speculation, with restrictions on FX transactions now a thing of the past. These developments are further reinforced by the successful clearance of a $7 billion in verified foreign exchange backlog – an albatross that had previously stifled investor engagement and hindered trade flows. The country also recorded a balance of payments surplus of $6.83 billion in 2024, reversing deficits of over $3 billion in each of the two previous years – helped by a surge of non-oil exports surged by 24.6% to $7.46 billion, and of gas exports by 48.3% to $8.66 billion.
The return of foreign investors to Nigeria: As previously mentioned, the administration’s monetary reforms have sanitized the foreign exchange market, attracting investors and boosting confidence in Nigeria’s economy.
Trade surplus and export boom: Nigeria is gradually roaring back to life. The country’s trade volume has reached an all-time high – with exports driven primarily by petroleum exports and solid minerals surging by 116% in 2024. Last year, she recorded a total trade volume of N138 trillion, the highest in her history – representing a 106% increase compared to that of 2023. Despite the huge depreciation in the value of the naira recorded in 2024, this volume of trade shows that Nigeria’s trade volume, when dollarized, surged by 22.1% in 2024. The country also exported goods worth N77.4 trillion in 2024, compared to N35.96 trillion in 2023. Coming after a challenging 2023, this rise in exports indicates that the reforms instituted by the Tinubu are yielding immediate fruits. The concerted efforts of the Nigerian military to tackle crude oil theft in the Niger Delta has led to a rise in Nigeria’s average crude oil production to over 1.5 million barrels per day. With an import of N60.6 trillion in 2024, it means Nigeria’s balance of trade stood at N18.86 trillion in 2024, (up from the N6.09 trillion recorded in 2023).
A surge in net reserves: Nigeria’s foreign reserves have grown significantly, rising from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $23.11 billion in 2025. As impressive as this movement in the gross external foreign reserves is, however, this picture does not tell the whole story – considering what the CBN had to pass through to achieve that, at the constant prodding of the President.
A shrinking budget deficit: In spite of a historic budget increase, the deficit has reduced – a signal of the administration’s commitment to fiscal prudence. In 2025, the country’s budget deficit stands at 4.17% (down from the 6.2% recorded in 2023), meaning that though the budget deficit will still be financed through borrowing for the foreseeable future, the amount government will borrow in 2025 will be less than before, relative to its GDP. It is a clear signal of President Tinubu’s intention be more financially prudent and gradually move away from borrowing over time.
Investment inflows and corporate profitability: Companies are posting handsome profits again, and the capital market is experiencing a sustained bullish run. Equally noteworthy is the revival of portfolio investment inflows, which has more than doubled in two years, rising by 106.5% to $13.35 billion, in a clear vote of confidence in this administration’s policy direction. Not to mention the Nigerian Diaspora remittances, which rose by 8.9% to $20.93 billion, complemented by a $4.73 billion inflow via International Money Transfer Operators. As a result of the deliberate reforms instituted by the President to remove bottlenecks in the oil and gas sector and incentivize investment, Nigeria has also seen a boom in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) from global oil and gas companies – a whopping 75% of FIDs across the African continent. Not to be outdone, the solid mineral sector is also witnessing an inflow of investment in value addition. In the manufacturing sector, a lot of ‘greenfield’ investments are also flowing into the country, with a number of companies announcing expansions in their operations.
Forensic audit of NNPC underway: In a bid to promote transparency and accountability, the Tinubu administration has initiated a forensic audit of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). This move, says Mr. Wale Edun, the honorable minister of finance, demonstrates the administration’s commitment to rooting out corruption and ensuring that Nigeria’s natural resources are managed for the benefit of all Nigerians.
In recent weeks, praises for the Tinubu reforms have come from a multiplicity of knowledgeable and influential quarters. Suffice it to highlight just two of them.
PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), for instance, says the reforms ‘have yielded positive outcomes in terms of government revenue, improvement in credit ratings, exports and capital importation.’ It made particular reference to the 200% increase in oil exports from N5.15 trillion in Q1, 2023 to N15.5 trillion in Q1, 2024 and the increase in both FDIs and FPIs between April of 2023 and the corresponding period in 2025.
In another noteworthy development, Nigeria’s former President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, in a recent phone conversation with President Tinubu, recently commended President Tinubu’s bold efforts in shaping Nigeria’s political and economic landscape. Coming after long periods of public disagreement between the two leaders, this surprising commendation – which was conveyed in a phone conversation between the former and current President, as facilitated by the First Lady, Sen. Oluremi Tinubu in her bid to build bridges and foster dialogue between the administration and key stakeholders – not only lends credibility to the administration’s policies, but it also suggests a potentially seismic shift in Nigeria’s political dynamics which may have a defining impact on the outcome and fallouts of the 2027 elections. Already, the political landscape is awash with news of defections (and impending defections) by elected as well as appointive office-holders, among them sitting and former Governors from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Like Tinubu, Obasanjo took over the reins of power during a particularly bad patch in the life of the nation, and given his history of promoting reforms, his commendation could lend further momentum to the administration’s efforts. More importantly, though, it could pave the way for potentially crucial collaborations between the two leaders and their respective camps. As the ranks of the APC swell as an appreciation (on the part of former opposition politicians) for the President’s leadership and vision, stakeholders are increasingly confident that these strategic alignments and alliances will rebound to the good of the majority of the Nigerian people.
Because not only is Tinubunomics working, it is clearly being seen in various quarters as the harbinger of a brighter future.
• Keem Abdul, publisher and writer, hails from Lagos. He can be reached via +2348038795377(WhatsApp) or Akeemabdul2023@gmail.com
