Tag: Emerging

  • Ecobank research shows emerging trends for Africa

    Ecobank research shows emerging trends for Africa

    The 2017 version of Ecobank Research’s Fixed Income, Currency and Commodities (FICC) Guidebook, which provides expert knowledge and analysis on African markets for investors and businesses, was launched yesterday at AfricaFICC. Indicating a positive outlook for the continent, three key trends are forecast to take hold during the next 12 months.

    The first indicates an economic rebound in sub-Saharan Africa, driven by a recovery in the region’s economic heavyweights, Nigeria and South Africa, and ongoing growth in the top performers, Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire and (more recently) Ghana.

    Growth will be driven by a rise in oil production (notably in Ghana, Republic of Congo, Nigeria and Angola), strengthening infrastructure investment across West and East Africa, and improved weather conditions which bode well for crops.

    Strengthening economic activity, plus a moderate improvement in oil and mineral prices, will help narrow the current account deficit, but pressure on SSA currencies will remain. The second emerging trend points to West Africa’s gas sector becoming a hive of activity in 2018, from Senegal to Angola, with the development of gas pipelines, floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platforms and major gas field projects.

    Governments in the Gulf of Guinea and across West Africa have ramped up efforts to secure gas supply in order to boost domestic power generation and diversify their revenues away from crude oil.

    Deregulating the gas market and allowing market-driven gas prices will be key to unlocking further gas infrastructure investment across the region.

    The third trend suggests Fintech innovation in Africa picking up speed in 2018, buoyed by a new generation of Africans who are ‘digital natives’.

    The proliferation of tech hubs across. Africa (notably in South Africa, Kenya, Rwanda, Nigeria, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire) will nurture the next wave of African start-ups and help connect them with investors. Digital innovation in SSA is being driven by the explosion in mobile phone usage, enabling African consumers to leapfrog existing business models and technologies.

    African Fintech firms are increasingly driving this innovation, deploying digital tools to build credit profiles for the previously ‘unbankable’, providing electricity to rural households that were previously off the grid, even using artificial intelligence to diagnose health problems remotely.

  • Cash boost for emerging playwrights

    Cash boost for emerging playwrights

    Paul Ugbede, a graduate of University of Jos, has emerged the winner of the just concluded maiden edition of Beeta Playwright Competition. The Mass Communication certificate holder won the star prize of N 1,000,000 with his play entitled Our Son the Minister.

    Ugbede said the winning play was inspired by the mind-set of Nigerians towards their leaders. According to him, the play, “Our Son the Minister is clarion call to every Nigerian to allow our leaders work.” He added that he got to know about the competition through a friend via WhatsApp. After submitting his entry he forgot about the competition until he got a message from the organisers that he had been nominated. According to him, it took him more than six months to write the play.

    He is of the view that the competition is a big platform for aspiring writers, adding that aspiring younger writers should never give up. “There is hope as long as you spend time to write and depending on what you want to write about. One day we can live off writing in this country.” He urged writers in general never to drop their pen “because it is the only weapon they have.”

    The first runner up Nikkita Orok got N500,000 with her play Affiong, while Olayiwola Awakan, the second runner got N250,000 with his Echoes of the Drum, at the grand finale which took place at Terra Kulture in Lagos on Monday, February 8. A total number of 176 entries from Nigerians at home and in the Diaspora and 46 were qualified to participate in the competition. The completion was open to people between the ages of 18 to 45.

    The competition organised by Beeta Universal Arts Foundation, was initiated by Bikiya Graham-Douglas, the founder of the foundation. After rigorous screening, nine finalists were picked by the panel of judges. “It is my belief that the strength of any society is its ability of documenting its stories by its different generations. This is why at Beeta, we felt a responsibility to create a platform not only for thespians but also the playwrights without whom there would be no dramatic expression. I don’t know if there is any other platform that is showcasing a new Nigerian writing, for Nigerians and by Nigerians in our own voice,” she said.

    According to her, a little token of the prize money would be used to publish the play of the winners. In her words: “We want them to have their materials in their hands. We are going to produce the winner’s play that is the part of the package. We will also take them on a school tour. The end for us would be to see the plays get into the curriculum in Nigeria.

    “It is not just about writing the play but it will be performed. These plays are transferable; we are going to see how we will get a producer to transfer the plays into movie, to ensure that they have their play published. I believe this playwright competition is going to be bigger.”

    Revealing the criteria for their selections, she said: “What we wanted was to create organic Nigerian stories from the youths, they had to write a Nigerian story. We gave them specific technical instructions to harmonise their characters. We also judge them based on their grammar.”

    To her, there should be a new generation of writers which young ones should be reading now. “From the number of entries we had, it shows that young people are looking for an avenue to show their talents and there are no platforms for them to do that. A lot of young Nigerians are not writing as much as they want and we are hopeful that competition will awaken this.  I always tell people that do not think legends are not born but made. It is from a competition like this we can get a playwright legend.”

    To confer credibility in the process of selecting winners, Graham-Douglas said she stayed away during the period. “I was not part of judges because I had to be fair because I will be biased if I am among the judges. I stayed cleared because I did not want any favourite.”

    The panel of judges were: Prof Ahmed Yerima, an award winning playwright, Shaibu Hasseni, art journalist, Ibiso Graham-Douglas, founder, Publisher-Paperworth Books limited, Kenneth Uphopho; Festival Director-British Council, and Kemi Lola Akindoju, Actress and producer.

  • ‘Africa emerging new pole of global growth’, experts say

    The Presidents of Ivory Coast and Senegal, Alassane Ouattara and Macky Sall, respectively, as well as the Prime Minister of Cape Verde, José Maria Neves alongside hosts, Executive Secretary of the Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) and Prime Minister of Morocco, officially opened the 9th African Development Forum this week Tuesday. The event is organised  by the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) – the leading think tank and policy advisory body for Africa  and offers a multi-stakeholder platform for debating, discussing and initiating concrete strategies for Africa’s development.

    In a statement sent to The Nation by ECA Executive Secretary, Dr Lopez Carlos, he quoted the Prime Minister of Morocco, Abdelilah Benkirane,  as expressing his delight that the 9th African Development Forum was held in his country, adding that Africa is emerging as a new pole of global growth. “For this trend to be consolidated, however, we need to make sure there is an overhaul of African economies, with a clear shift towards technology-intensive, high value added activities. To rise to this challenge, the financial aspect is of great importance,” Benkirane said.

    On his part, Dr Lopes noted a refreshing new mindset and type of leadership in Africa that is both positive in its thinking and pragmatic in its actions. Greeting his special guests, he noted the “new trend in Africa where policy thinkers and policy doers are becoming one. We are witnessing a considerable sea change in attitudes and mentalities, with leaders that are reformers and practitioners that are dreamers.”

    Focusing on the Forum’s themes, he acknowledged that African Governments had taken an active role in changing the investment landscape, pointing out that this shift is associated with evidence-based policies. Since he took over the helm of affairs at ECA, he has put an emphasis on providing more concrete and meaningful data to help drive policy advice.

    One of the themes at this year’s Forum is new forms of partnerships, a point reiterated by Prime Minister Neves. “Development aid is not enough so we need to mobilise financial resources to implement our economic policies,” he said. This was reiterated by President Sall, who said, “Traditional solutions in funding development is no longer relevant to the scope and need of the continent. The aspiration of African people is not only to fight poverty, it is to drive sustainable growth that will create employment and prosperity…What is possible in all other continents is possible in Africa.”

    President Ouattara, added the need for more accountability and transparency in international capital flows. “I am glad to participate in this Forum. Africa is on the road to being the next emerging continent in the world. However, I have some concerns. Too many transactions are taking place outside the taxation system. This has to be addressed,” he said.

    This year, the Forum is focusing on ‘Innovative Financing for Africa’s Transformation.’ More specifically, the forum looked at ways of mobilising domestic capital. A report by the ECA had stated that over $200 billion lay in central bank reserves much of which can be used to leverage capital to stimulate investment. More is lost to illicit financial flows than is received in Overseas Development Assistance (ODA).

    The discussions, the  statement further said, are driven to help shape and drive policy. The organisers emphasised the need  to ensure that conclusions and recommendations from the Forum will help policy makers and government officials work towards a more efficient way to raise funds and identify new channels of funding for infrastructure, health and education, driving social as well as economic growth.

    Further more, lateral thinking, smarter controls regarding tax collection and smarter policies to facilitate investment were all encouraged to unlock capital and also to drive better accountability and transparency.

  • Emerging market governors back Fed policy

    Emerging market governors back Fed policy

    Emerging market central bank governors support efforts to normalise developed-world monetary policies.

    This sis happening despite the stresses some have faced since the Federal Reserve signaled its desire to reserve its extraordinary policy measures in May 2013, according to Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

    “Most emerging market central bank governors that I have heard, say normalisation of monetary policy is welcome,” says Menon in an interview published today in Central Banking journal. “All they want is that normalisation is done in a calibrated, clear and orderly fashion.”

    In contrast to the views of many pundits in the financial services industry, Menon sees the benefits of normalisation – which includes raising interest rates as well as ending asset purchases – outweighing any short-term costs of capital reversals.

    “The sooner we see a normalisation of monetary conditions globally, the better for us here in Asia and in emerging economies,” says Menon. “The spill-over effects of unconventional monetary policies are not insignificant – volatility in capital flows, pressures in asset markets, a general increase in financial stability risks and a flattening of the yield curve that distorts investment decisions. These are not trivial consequences.”

    Menon says abnormally low interest rates have caused “longer-term structural challenges” for some financial market participants, such as pension funds.

  • Investors stake $9bn on emerging market stocks, bonds

    Investors stake $9bn on emerging market stocks, bonds

    Emerging markets took in only $9 billion in stock and bond investments in August, below the average for the past three months and lackluster even compared to prior Augusts, a global financial industry group has said.

    Inflows into debt markets were particularly low, and bond issuance fell by half compared to the same month last year, the Institute of International Finance, or IIF, said in its monthly report on portfolio investments into emerging markets.

    “While the usual seasonal lull surely contributed to the weakness, the sharp slowdown in portfolio flows in August could also mark the beginning of a period of greater caution among global investors towards -emerging markets,” Charles Collyns, the IIF’s chief economist, said in a statement.

    Reuters reported that portfolio investment into emerging markets hit a two-year high last month at $44 billion, and totaled $36 billion in June, IIF data showed.

    The IIF said much of August’s decline was driven by outflows from emerging Europe and Africa, though inflows to Asia and Latin America also fell.

    The slowdown in investment flows comes even as emerging market stocks touched new three-year highs on Wednesday, supported by the prospect of further monetary stimulus in the euro zone, while Moscow-listed shares rose after tentative signs of diplomatic progress over the Ukraine crisis.

    Expectations are growing that the European Central Bank will further ease monetary policy to counter sluggish growth and low inflation. Additional easing would boost demand for riskier emerging stocks, which are up some 9 percent this year.

  • NSE targets emerging market status

    NSE targets emerging market status

    The Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) is implementing key measures that will enlarge the footprint of the Nigerian stock market in Africa and bring the market to emerging market status.

    Executive director, business development, Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), Haruna Jalo-Waziri, said the Exchange aims at consolidating the progress made in recent years through a new phase of development that targets African and the global markets.

    According to him, while the NSE’s focus from 2011 to 2013 has been on revamping corporate governance, improving human capacity, cleansing and restructuring the market, improving technology, product development, and advocacy for changes to policy, the Exchange will as from this year shift gears to drive innovations centred on increasing global visibility for the Nigerian capital market.

    “We intend to develop a larger footprint on the African continent and ultimately, targeting emerging market status.  That is why we are very much in support of the West African Capital Market Integration (WACMI) efforts and similar programmes. This will open opportunities for you, the Nigerian investors, to extend your reach,” Jalo-Waziri said.

    He noted that while Nigerian capital market shows signs of improved investor’s confidence, stakeholders must continue to work to scale up the market performance.

    He pointed out that the improved regulatory environment and performance of quoted companies from 2012 till date, has positively impacted on stock market prices and overall market indices adding that all vital performance metrics in the Nigerian capital market have bounced back from the critical low to which they backslid in 2008 and have generally remained upbeat.

    He said improved local investors’ participation in the market underlined the gain of recent reforms noting that local Investors participation in the market so far this year outweighs foreign participation as against the situation between 2009 and the first half of 2012 when local investors eschewed the market on account of losses they sustained in the aftermath of the near meltdown of 2008.

    “It is also no longer news that we have adopted a zero-tolerance stance on dealing member firms and listed companies’ violations.  We have proposed several rules to codify the accepted mode of engagement in our market,” Haruna Jalo-Waziri said.

    He said the NSE has also started building out a robust financial literacy programme aimed at enhancing investors’ understanding of the basics of investing around portfolio construction, asset allocation and risk diversification.

    According to him, the investors’ education programmes have primarily been focused on particular segments of the investing community to discuss the finer details of investing and to shed more light on the capital market eco system.

    “On the Technology front, we rolled out X-Gen, which is our new generation Trading Platform that supports our effort to drive our market to a higher level.  X-Gen opens an unprecedented level of innovative trading capabilities for the Nigerian capital market, providing direct market access for both the buy and sell sides, and mobile access through smartphones to the retail investors. Therein lies an opportunity for engagement with the 120million mobile phone owners across the country. The new trading platform has also improved the overall quality of market experience for all stakeholders,” Haruna Jalo-Waziri said.

  • Emerging stock rally gains ground

    An Emerging-market stocks rose for a fourth day, heading for the longest stretch of gains since October, as corporate profits in China beat estimates while the highest US consumer confidence since 2008 boosted sentiment.

    The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added one per cent to 967.96 at 11:19 a.m. in London, the highest level since March 7.

    A gauge of Chinese shares in Hong Kong climbed 1.6 per cent.

    China Mengniu Dairy Co. surged the most in 10 months after posting larger profits.Russia’s Micex Index climbed to a one-week high and the ruble strengthened for a fourth day versus the dollar. India’s rupee rallied to an eight-month high. Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., the nation’s third-largest lender, reported higher earnings and improved margins. Data today will show higher United States durable goods orders and faster services growth, economists estimate.

    The International Monetary Fund will deliver an assessment to Ukraine on its bailout request as the US musters support for penalising Russia for its annexation of Crimea.

    “News flow on the positive side, combined with low valuations and oversold markets, is luring some investors back to” developing nations, Hertta Alava, the head of emerging markets at FIM Asset Management Ltd. in Finland, said by e-mail.

    “There have been some good corporate results in China. Russia is seeing a bit of a relief rally after things haven’t escalated more in Ukraine.”

    The emerging-markets gauge has fallen 3.6 per cent this year and trades at 8.6 times projected 12-month earnings, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

    The MSCI World Index is little changed in the year, and is valued at 14.7 times.

    All 10 industry groups in the developing nation gauge climbed, led by technology stocks and energy companies.

    Samsung Electronics Co., which gets about 30 per cent of its sales from America, gained 3.1 per cent in Seoul, the most since February 21.

    OAO Gazprom, the world’s largest producer of natural gas, climbed 3 percent in Moscow, while Johannesburg-based Sasol Ltd. added 2.2 per cent.

  • Why India trails China: Lessons for emerging economies

    MODERN India is, in many ways, a success. Its claim to be the world’s largest democracy is not hollow. Its media is vibrant and free; Indians buy more newspapers every day than any other nation. Since independence in 1947, life expectancy at birth has more than doubled, to 66 years from 32, and per-capita income (adjusted for inflation) has grown fivefold

    In recent decades, reforms pushed up the country’s once sluggish growth rate to around eight percent per year, before it fell back a couple of percentage points over the last two years. For years, India’s economic growth rate ranked second among the world’s large economies, after China, which it has consistently trailed by at least one percentage point.

    The hope that India might overtake China one day in economic growth now seems a distant one. But that comparison is not what should worry Indians most. The far greater gap between India and China is in the provision of essential public services — a failing that depresses living standards and is a persistent drag on growth.

    Inequality is high in both countries, but China has done far more than India to raise life expectancy, expand general education and secure health care for its people. India has elite schools of varying degrees of excellence for the privileged, but among all Indians seven or older, nearly one in every five males and one in every three females are illiterate. And most schools are of low quality; less than half the children can divide 20 by 5, even after four years of schooling.

    India may be the world’s largest producer of generic medicine, but its health care system is an unregulated mess. The poor have to rely on low-quality — and sometimes exploitative — private medical care, because there isn’t enough decent public care. While China devotes 2.7 percent of its gross domestic product to government spending on health care, India allots 1.2 percent.

    India’s underperformance can be traced to a failure to learn from the examples of so-called Asian economic development, in which rapid expansion of human capability is both a goal in itself and an integral element in achieving rapid growth. Japan pioneered that approach, starting after the Meiji Restoration in 1868, when it resolved to achieve a fully literate society within a few decades. As Kido Takayoshi, a leader of that reform, explained: “Our people are no different from the Americans or Europeans of today; it is all a matter of education or lack of education.” Through investments in education and health care, Japan simultaneously enhanced living standards and labor productivity — the government collaborating with the market.

    Despite the catastrophe of Japan’s war years, the lessons of its development experience remained and were followed, in the postwar period, by South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and other economies in East Asia. China, which during the Mao era made advances in land reform and basic education and health care, embarked on market reforms in the early 1980s; its huge success changed the shape of the world economy. India has paid inadequate attention to these lessons. -2-

    Is there a conundrum here that democratic India has done worse than China in educating its citizens and improving their health? Perhaps, but the puzzle need not be a brainteaser. Democratic participation, free expression and rule of law are largely realities in India, and still largely aspirations in China. India has not had a famine since independence, while China had the largest famine in recorded history, from 1958 to 1961, when Mao’s disastrous Great Leap Forward killed some 30 million people. Nevertheless, using democratic means to remedy endemic problems — chronic undernourishment, a disorganized medical system or dysfunctional school systems — demands sustained deliberation, political engagement, media coverage, popular pressure. In short, more democratic process, not less.

    In China, decision making takes place at the top. The country’s leaders are skeptical, if not hostile, with regard to the value of multiparty democracy, but they have been strongly committed to eliminating hunger, illiteracy and medical neglect, and that is enormously to their credit.

    There are inevitable fragilities in a nondemocratic system because mistakes are hard to correct. Dissent is dangerous. There is little recourse for victims of injustice. Edicts like the one-child policy can be very harsh. Still, China’s present leaders have used the basic approach of accelerating development by expanding human capability with great decisiveness and skill.

    The case for combating debilitating inequality in India is not only a matter of social justice. Unlike India, China did not miss the huge lesson of Asian economic development, about the economic returns that come from bettering human lives, especially at the bottom of the socioeconomic pyramid. India’s growth and its earnings from exports have tended to depend narrowly on a few sectors, like information technology, pharmaceuticals and specialized auto parts, many of which rely on the role of highly trained personnel from the well-educated classes. For India to match China in its range of manufacturing capacity — its ability to produce gadgets of almost every kind, with increasing use of technology and better quality control — it needs a better-educated and healthier labor force at all levels of society. What it needs most is more knowledge and public discussion about the nature and the huge extent of inequality and its damaging consequences, including for economic growth.

    •Culled from The New York Times. July 19, 2013.

    Amartya Sen, a Nobel laureate, is a professor of economics and philosophy at Harvard. He is the author, with Jean Drèze, of “An Uncertain Glory: India and its Contradictions.”

     

  • Emerging markets seek inclusion in global regulatory reform

    Emerging markets seek inclusion in global regulatory reform

    Securities regulators in the emerging markets have called for greater reflection of the views and positions of emerging markets in the early stages of new international regulatory reforms to ensure a more inclusive and reflective global reform.

    At a three-day meeting of emerging market securities regulators of the International Organisation of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) last week, the name of the group was changed from Emerging Market Committee (EMC) to Growth and Emerging Markets (GEM) Committee to better reflect the nature of the markets in which its members operate. The 86 members of GEM Committee include some of world’s fastest growing economies and 10 of the G-20 members.

    Emerging market regulators said they would seek to provide greater focus towards balancing growth and implementation of regulation, including looking at greater inclusiveness, strengthening channels of communication and developing greater regulatory capacity for emerging markets.

    The group reinforced strong support for the establishment of the IOSCO Foundation, which will assist members in their market development and capacity building efforts.

    Members urged industry to support the Foundation expeditiously so that emerging markets can benefit from the overall activities relating to three pillars: research, education and training, and technical assistance noting that increased funding of these activities will be of significant benefit to emerging market members, especially at a time of growing demand for market-based financing.

    Also at the meeting, Chairman of the Securities Commission Malaysia, Ranjit Ajit Singh, was elected the new chairman of the GEMC while Bert Chanetsa, deputy executive officer capital markets, Financial Services Board, South Africa, was elected as the vice chairman.

    Singh said there was a major opportunity for emerging markets to contribute to global discussions and for the committee to be a highly visible, effective and inclusive grouping for emerging markets.

    “In doing so, emerging markets must have a stronger and more inclusive voice and be supported by an efficient structure and process. The contribution to global regulatory debate must be enhanced. Market development and capacity building efforts remain critical for many emerging markets and we look forward to the establishment of the IOSCO Foundation,” Singh said.

    Chairman of the board of IOSCO, Greg Medcraft, who was present at the meetings, noted that emerging financial markets have a very significant role to play in global economic growth pointing out that the leadership of the EMC is critical to ensure IOSCO is seen as effective, pro-active and forward looking.

    “We look forward to the support from the industry to be able to launch the IOSCO Foundation soon. I look forward to working together with the new chair and vice chair of the GEMC towards achieving these objectives,” Medcraft said.

    The committee also held a public conference and discussed, among other panels, the impact of global regulatory reforms on emerging securities markets.

    Panelists emphasised the need for better streamlining of conduct and prudential regulation, and to ensure a strong and cohesive way to communicate these views at a higher level.

    The panel on impact of high frequency trading and algorithmic trading on emerging markets acknowledged that HFT and algorithms are the new normal, and it is critical to have a sound regulatory framework to ensure markets continue to operate in a fair, orderly and transparent manner.

    IOSCO is the leading international policy forum for securities regulators and is recognised as the global standard setter for securities regulation. The organisation’s membership regulates more than 95 per cent of the world’s securities markets in more than 115 jurisdictions.